Group 1 - The article highlights the intense political atmosphere in Washington, with President Trump urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly to alleviate the federal government's financial burden [1] - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell raises concerns about the Fed's independence, with investors anxious about potential impacts on monetary policy and market stability [1][9] - The sudden drop in gold prices, reaching a low of $3310 per ounce, reflects the volatility in the market and the unexpected shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - Short-term investors are increasingly anxious due to market fluctuations, with experts warning about risks related to Federal Reserve policies, global trade tensions, and capital arbitrage activities [5] - The interplay of technical trading and market sentiment is causing heightened volatility, making it difficult for ordinary investors to navigate the market [9] - The article suggests that the ongoing standoff between the Federal Reserve and Trump will continue to create uncertainty in the gold market, with potential for price reversals [9]

【导读】黄金需求总值飙升至 1320 亿美元，创历史纪录 中国基金报记者 王思文 | 全球黄金季度供需各板块情况 (单位:吨) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024年三 | 2024年二 | | 2024年四 | 2025年一 | 2025年二 | | 季度 | | 季度 | 季度 | 季度 | 季度 | | 黄金供应量 | | | | | | | 金矿产量 | 896.2 | 957.4 | 944.8 | 833 | 908.6 | | 金矿总供应量 | 875.8 | 950.9 | 926.4 | 825.9 | 901.5 | | 回收金 | 334.2 | 325.7 | 358.1 | 348.5 | 347.2 | | 总供应量 | 1,210.00 | 1,276.60 | 1,284.40 | 1,174.50 | 1.248.80 | | 黄金需求量 | | | | | | | 金饰消费 | 395.6 | 460 | 548.7 | 383.4 | 341 | | 投资需求 | 268.1 | 365.3 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that a stable growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry is about to be introduced, which is expected to accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure [6][7] - The report highlights that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to implement high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on both supply and demand to promote consumption upgrades and cultivate new consumption markets [6] - The report suggests that the implementation of these policies is likely to improve the supply-side capacity structure, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand interactions [6] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Index Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the non-ferrous metals index closed at 5730.54 points, up 2.0% month-on-month [10] - The precious metals index rose 1.6%, while the industrial metals index increased by 1.0% [10] Precious Metals - Gold - The report notes that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term [6] - As of July 18, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.44% to $3355.5 per ounce, while global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year [6] Industrial Metals - Copper - As of July 18, LME copper futures rose 1.4% to $9794.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 143,300 tons, a decrease of 400 tons [6] - The report anticipates that copper prices will benefit from macroeconomic and fundamental resonance, with a medium-term upward trend expected [6] Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of July 18, LME aluminum futures increased by 1.4% to $2638 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons [6] - The report expects aluminum prices to rise further due to a strong demand-supply imbalance [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Aluminum [7][6]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant volatility due to President Trump's comments about potentially firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a sharp increase in gold prices before a partial retracement [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially dropped to a low of $3319 before surging to $3376, ultimately closing at $3346, indicating a day of high volatility [1] - Trump's ambiguous statements regarding Powell's position have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, providing support for gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Israel's airstrikes on Damascus have heightened regional instability, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Trump administration's announcement of potential tariffs on over 150 countries, with rates possibly set at 10% or 15%, has escalated global trade tensions, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is expected to maintain a volatile trading range between $3330 and $3380, with key resistance levels at $3350-55 and $3370-80 [2] - A cautious approach is recommended, with traders advised to wait for market sentiment to stabilize before making significant moves [2] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - A suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at $3337-3336 with a stop loss at $3329 and a target of $3370-3380, while also considering short positions if prices drop below $3330 [3] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, all scheduled for release on July 17 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy uncertainty, and trade disputes, which have heightened market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve and President Trump's comments about possibly firing Powell have caused market turbulence, leading to a drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [3]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased due to economic slowdown forecasts, which may favor gold prices [3]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained flat month-on-month, easing concerns about immediate tightening of monetary policy, while year-on-year PPI showed an increase, indicating potential long-term inflation risks that could benefit gold [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly Israel's airstrikes in Syria, have intensified market risk aversion, boosting gold demand [3]. - Trade tensions, including Trump's threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate on over 150 countries, have raised inflation and economic growth concerns, prompting investors to seek gold as a hedge [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently within a triangular convergence range since reaching 3500, with recent volatility observed [5]. - Key support levels include the 5/30-day moving average around 3342 and the 10/20-day moving average near 3332/3330, with a critical support level at 3319 [7]. - Resistance levels to watch are the recent high of 3377 and the 3400 area, which has previously acted as a resistance zone [7]. - The four-hour chart indicates a complex structure, with key levels at 3282 and 3247 to monitor for potential downward breaks [9]. Upcoming Focus - Key economic data releases to watch include U.S. retail sales for June and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, which could impact market sentiment and gold prices [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][59]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term. As of July 11, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 1.61% to $3,370.3 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF remained stable at 947.6 tons. The World Gold Council reported an increase of $38 billion in global gold ETFs in the first half of the year, with total holdings rising by 397 tons to 3,616 tons. In the medium to long term, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit support a bullish outlook for gold [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: The imminent imposition of tariffs on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase short-term volatility. As of July 11, the LME copper futures contract fell by 1.9% to $9,663 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 143,700 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,900 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 108,700 tons. The announcement of a 50% tariff on all imported copper by Trump, effective August 1, has led to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME copper [5][6][58]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold: The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to diminishing pressure from interest rate cut expectations and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. The total holdings in gold ETFs have increased significantly, indicating strong demand [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The upcoming tariffs are likely to lead to increased volatility in the copper market. Despite short-term challenges, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and low inventory levels [5][6][58]. - Aluminum: As of July 11, LME aluminum futures rose by 0.2% to $2,602 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly, and the global inventory remains low. The supply-demand dynamics suggest a bullish outlook for aluminum prices in the medium term [6][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining, and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][58].

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 773.58 yuan per gram, showing an increase of 0.53% with a high of 773.64 yuan and a low of 767.08 yuan, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a division among officials regarding interest rate paths, with the majority favoring a rate cut later in the year but excluding July, while a minority supports immediate action [2][3] - The minutes emphasize that risks and uncertainties are key factors influencing decision-making, highlighting the need for a policy strategy to address various uncertain developments [2][3] Group 2 - Gold futures are maintaining a flat trading pattern amid unclear direction, with the price around 3320 USD per ounce, although it has seen a nearly 1% decline this week [4] - The postponement of tariff implementation by the Trump administration until August 1 has weakened some safe-haven demand, leading to a rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which competes with gold's safe-haven attributes [6] - Despite the tariff threats and trade uncertainties providing some support for gold prices, ongoing purchases by central banks are helping to stabilize the bottom for gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating trade tensions due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which are causing significant market volatility and impacting global financial markets [1][3]. - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025, as part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances [3]. - Additional tariffs will be applied to various countries, including 25% on Kazakhstan and Malaysia, 30% on South Africa, and 40% on Laos and Myanmar, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade policy [3]. Group 2 - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [4]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, international gold prices surged over 2%, reaching $3,360 per ounce, reflecting heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [4]. - The performance of the gold market contrasts sharply with the decline in global stock markets, where major U.S. indices fell significantly due to concerns over tariff policies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strategic accumulation of gold by China amidst the backdrop of U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in global economic dynamics [2][3] - China's gold reserves have increased for eight consecutive months, nearing 2300 tons, while the U.S. has maintained its gold reserves since 1952, showcasing differing national strategies [2] - The global gold reserve rankings show the U.S. at 8133 tons, Germany following, and China at 2298 tons, with Russia doubling its reserves over the past decade, indicating a competitive landscape among these nations [2] Group 2 - A recent World Gold Council survey reveals that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings, emphasizing gold's role as a safe haven amid economic volatility [3] - The current gold reserve ratio for China is only 7%, significantly below the global average of 15%, suggesting potential for growth in gold accumulation to support the internationalization of the Renminbi [3] - Experts argue that each ton of gold added to reserves strengthens the credibility of the Renminbi, positioning it as a key player in global finance [3] Group 3 - China's strategic timing in gold purchases coincides with the end of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, indicating a calculated move to enhance the Renminbi's global standing [4] - The phrase "buy gold in chaotic times, store jade in prosperous times" reflects the current sentiment among global central banks investing in gold, suggesting a potential transformation in the monetary system [4] - The future of currency and its relationship with gold is questioned, hinting at a possible emergence of a new "twin star" currency alongside gold in the next decade [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of gold prices is oscillating and has not yet broken out of the range, waiting for more momentum [5] - Multiple factors are intertwined. Tariff policies boost gold's safe - haven property, but the intensity and uncertainty are lower than in April, resulting in limited gold price increases. The relatively good performance of US economic data does not bring additional positive factors to gold. The implementation of the US tax - cut bill will boost short - term economic and risk appetite but increase the long - term debt burden of the US government, and the logic of gold hedging against the US dollar credit remains [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - London gold rose 1.9% to $3,337 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the inflation expectation was 2.33%, the real interest rate rose to 2%, the US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly, and the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated narrowly [2] 3.2 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes | Index Name | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change Amount | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Basis (Spot - Futures) | Yuan/g | - 5.49 | - 3.32 | - 2.17 | 65.4% | | Domestic - Foreign Futures Price Difference (Domestic - Foreign) | Yuan/g | - 12.08 | 8.99 | - 21.07 | - 234.4% | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kg | 21,456 | 18,237 | 3,219.00 | 17.7% | | COMEX Gold Inventory | Ounce | 36,785,583 | 37,048,335 | - 262,752 | - 0.71% | | SPDR ETF Holdings | Tons | 947.66 | 954.82 | - 7.16 | - 0.75% | | CFTC Gold Speculative Net Long Positions | Lots | 130,484 | 136,626 | - 6,142 | - 4.5% | | US Treasury Yield | % | 4.35 | 4.29 | 0.06 | 1.4% | | US Dollar Index | | 96.99 | 97.26 | - 0.27 | - 0.28% | | SOFR | % | 4.40 | 4.36 | 0.04 | 0.9% | | US 10 - Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | % | 2.3386 | 2.3043 | 0.0343 | 1.49% | | S&P 500 Index | | 6,279 | 6,173 | 106 | 1.7% | | VIX Volatility Index | % | 17.5 | 16.3 | 1.2 | 7.1% | | Gold Cross - Market Arbitrage Trading | | 7.1 | 7.3 | - 0.2 | - 2.7% | | US 10 - Year Real Interest Rate | % | 2.01 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 1.7% | [11] 3.3 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.3.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.4%. Oil prices rose 2.5%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.33% [17] - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 17.6 [19] - The real interest rate slightly rose to 2.007%, and the gold price rose 1.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index slightly fell [21] 3.3.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.72%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4% [22] - US and German bonds rebounded, and the US - Germany yield spread was 1.74%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.55%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.44% [27] - The euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, and the Swiss franc rose 0.63%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated [29][31] 3.4 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The release of gold speculative net long positions was postponed to July 8. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings fell to 947 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 90.2 [36] 3.5 Weekly Economic Calendar | Date | Important Data & Events | | --- | --- | | Monday | China's foreign exchange reserves in June; Eurozone retail sales in June | | Tuesday | Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting decision; US NFIB small - business confidence index in June; New York Fed one - year inflation expectation | | Wednesday | China's CPI in June; End of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period | | Thursday | Minutes of the Fed's June interest rate meeting | | Friday | US 30 - year Treasury auction | [37]