首当其冲的，是华盛顿的政治僵局。特朗普政府与国会两党领袖的谈判破裂，使得联邦政府资金告罄的 警钟即将敲响。这场政治风暴，宛如一根导火索，瞬间点燃了资本市场的避险情绪，将黄金推向了风口 浪尖。 与此同时，在伦敦金银市场，一幕罕见的景象正在上演：为了填补COMEX期货市场的实物缺口，交易 员们正争分夺秒地将金条从英格兰银行的金库运往纽约。这场跨越大西洋的黄金搬运潮，不仅暴露了市 场对美元信用的深层焦虑，也揭示了黄金市场供需矛盾的冰山一角。 推动金价上涨的，是三重交织的力量。 首先，是美联储降息预期的强劲引擎。利率期货市场显示，市场对10月降息的预期已飙升至90%，12月 再次降息的概率也高达65%。降息不仅直接降低了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本，更重要的是，它引发 了市场对美元信用的重新定价，为金价的腾飞奠定了基础。 其次，是地缘政治风险的推波助澜。特朗普政府威胁对加拿大、墨西哥征收25%关税，与2018年边境墙 争端导致的政府停摆历史遥相呼应。更令人不安的是，白宫要求联邦机构为"不符合总统优先事项"的项 目制定永久裁员计划，而非传统的临时停薪留职。这种政策的不确定性，使得黄金的避险需求从短期对 冲转向长期配置，进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of gold has not ended, and price fluctuations may intensify in the fourth quarter. Before the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, gold prices will benefit from the interest rate cut drive. After the cut in October, there will be more market games regarding interest rate cut expectations, Sino - US relations, and geopolitics, which may increase price volatility [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are still favorable for gold prices. The market has strengthened the trading of Fed interest rate cuts, and the Fed expects two more cuts this year. The US dollar will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, which is beneficial for gold [6]. - Uncertainties in the economy and politics have boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Since August, geopolitical situations such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation have intensified, and there are also uncertainties in US tariff policies, Fed independence, and fiscal debt, continuously driving up the demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' gold purchases continue, and ETF inflows are accelerating. Central banks around the world have been net buyers of gold for 14 consecutive quarters, and European and American gold ETFs have accelerated their inflows. The People's Bank of China has also increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months. However, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may affect future central bank gold - buying behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 After - market Judgment - Since the third quarter, gold has oscillated strongly and reached new historical highs, mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts. In the fourth quarter, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed in October is high, and before that, gold prices will benefit from this. After the cut, price fluctuations may intensify [6]. - Interest rate cut trading and a weak US dollar are positive for gold prices. The Fed's expected two more interest rate cuts this year and the low - level oscillation of the US dollar are favorable factors [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties such as the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the escalation of the Middle - East situation, as well as uncertainties in the US economy and policies, have increased the safe - haven demand for gold [6]. - Central banks' continuous gold purchases and the acceleration of ETF inflows support the rise in gold prices, but the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be a risk factor [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - **Employment data**: In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The non - farm payrolls data for the past two months were revised down by a total of 21,000. The annual non - farm employment from March 2025 was revised down by 911,000, indicating a weakening employment market and strengthening the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [8]. - **Inflation data**: In August, the US PPI unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, the first negative value in four months. The CPI and core CPI data were in line with expectations, and inflation control did not hinder the September interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest rate decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in October exceeded 90%, and the Fed expected two more cuts this year, although there were differences among members [12]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle - East, Israeli military air - strikes in Lebanon and the US's veto of the UN Security Council's cease - fire resolution in Palestine - Israel have increased tensions. In Europe, there is a border stand - off between Poland and Russia, and the suspension of Russia - Ukraine peace talks has also added uncertainty. In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased market risks [16][17][18]. - **US dollar trend**: Before September, the US dollar index continued to decline due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. After the Fed meeting, the US dollar rebounded. Overall, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, and future trends depend on US economic data, especially employment data [21]. - **Economic performance**: The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line. The US retail sales and consumer spending were strong, and the second - quarter GDP was revised upwards [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect - **Central bank gold purchases**: In 2023 and 2024, central banks around the world had large - scale gold purchases. In July 2025, global official gold reserves increased by 10 tons, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months as of August [29]. - **Gold ETF inflows**: In August, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $5.5 billion, with North American and European funds being the main drivers. As of September 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased compared to the end of August [35].

不过，飙升的金价对需求带来了影响，在中国市场尤其明显。 高盛在9月初的报告中预计，基准情景下，到2026年中国际金价将飙升至每盎司4000美元；在"尾部风险情景"下，金价或达每盎司4500美元；若美国私人持 有的国债市场中仅1%的资金流入黄金，金价预计将接近每盎司5000美元。 上海中期分析，宏观方面，美国政府停摆风险持续升温，推动市场避险资金流向黄金这一传统避险资产。另一方面，上周五公布的美国PCE通胀数据符合预 期，强化了市场对美联储年内继续降息的押注，进一步利好黄金这一无息资产。供需方面，央行购金热情不减，中国央行8月末黄金储备7402万盎司，环比 增持6万盎司，为连续第十个月增持黄金。截至9月26日，SPDR黄金ETF持仓1005.72吨，前值为996.85吨，SLV白银ETF持仓15361.84吨，前值15390.07吨。 综合来看，美联储降息前景、地缘冲突和政府关门风险利多贵金属，但也需注意，国庆假期临近，外盘波动具有不确定性，建议做好风险管理。 南华期货认为，短线看，贵金属技术形态亦偏强，仍有进一步上涨可能，其中伦敦金阻力在3800美元/盎司，如突破则有望进一步走高至4000美元/盎司；伦 敦银 ...

高金价下中国需求降温 高企的金价已经令不少消费者和投资者望而生畏，在中国市场表现尤其明显。 金价又又又涨了，这次直接突破 3820 美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 不过，飙升的金价对需求带来了影响，在中国市场尤其明显。 国际金价创新高 截至北京时间9月29日22：05，伦敦金价格为3827.37美元/盎司，日内上涨1.82%，今年以来涨幅超45%，创出历史新高。伦敦 银价格为46.72美元/盎司，日内上涨1.51%，年内涨幅超61%，创出近14年来新高。 国内部分黄金珠宝品牌金饰价格9月29日继续上涨。周生生足金饰品报价1111元/克，较9月26日上涨5元/克；周大福、六福珠 宝、老凤祥等品牌足金首饰价格则维持在1108元/克不变。 高盛在9月初的报告中预计，基准情景下，到2026年中国际金价将飙升至每盎司4000美元；在"尾部风险情景"下，金价或达每 盎司4500美元；若美国私人持有的国债市场中仅1%的资金流入黄金，金价预计将接近每盎司5000美元。 上海中期分析，宏观方面，美国政府停摆风险持续升温，推动市场避险资金流向黄金这一传统避险资产。另一方面，上周五 公布的美国PCE通胀数据符合预期，强化了市场对美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policy changes, global central bank gold purchasing trends, and geopolitical developments to flexibly adjust asset allocation strategies based on the evolution of core variables [1]. Gold Price Movement - On September 29, spot gold prices surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a record high of $3,805.979 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.26% and a peak of $3,819.81 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures also experienced significant gains, rising by 0.96% to $3,845.5 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,849 per ounce [1]. Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, supported by August's PCE inflation data, which aligns with the possibility of a rate cut in October, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [5]. 2. A weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with a trend towards "de-dollarization," providing additional support for gold prices [5]. 3. Rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown, increasing political uncertainty and enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold suggests a likely "short-term high-level fluctuation and a medium to long-term upward adjustment" in price levels, with core drivers determining the market rhythm [6]. - The fundamental logic supporting gold price increases remains intact, including slowing U.S. economic growth, a cooling labor market, and a low-interest-rate environment that continues to lower the cost of holding gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors who have not yet entered the market consider buying on dips, while those with existing positions should hold firmly [8]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "prudent first, rational layout" approach, avoiding blind chasing of high prices and waiting for reasonable market corrections before gradually entering [8]. - Gold should be viewed as a strategic component of asset allocation, serving to hedge risks and balance volatility, with allocation ratios tailored to individual risk tolerance [8].

这些数据如同为美元注入了强心剂。美元指数应声飙升至三周高位，强势美元通常对以美元计价的黄金构成压力。数据 公布后，金价一度快速下探至3722美元/盎司，市场逻辑清晰可见：经济表现越好，美联储就越有底气放缓甚至暂停降息 步伐，持有无息资产黄金的机会成本就越高。芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，市场对10月降息的预期已从数据公布前的90% 微降至85%，这细微的变化足以在汇市和金市掀起波澜。 以军在加沙的军事行动升级，并对也门胡塞武装目标发动空袭，使得中东战火持续。更令人瞩目的是，欧洲外交官对克 里姆林宫的警告，表明北约已准备好以武力回应俄罗斯的领空侵犯，这无疑将俄乌冲突的紧张氛围推向新的高度。 此外，美国国内关于政府可能停摆的噪音也为市场增添了不确定性。正是在这种"乱世"背景下，黄金的避险属性熠熠生 辉。Zaner Metals副总裁Peter Grant的点评切中要害：尽管经济数据略显鹰派，但不足以改变市场对降息的整体预期。而每 当金价下跌，总有逢低买入的投资者和寻求资产保护的避险资金入场托市，形成了"跌不下去"的强劲支撑。 周五(9月26日)亚洲时段，现货黄金目前交投于3741一线上方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂 ...

Group 1 - On September 23, 2025, gold prices varied slightly among major brands, with all brands' gold jewelry purity reaching 99.9% [1] - Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry priced their gold products at 1085 yuan per gram, while Chow Sang Sang set a slightly higher price at 1090 yuan per gram [1][4] - Other brands like King Fook and Xie Rui Lin also priced their gold at 1085 yuan per gram, maintaining consistency with Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry [1] Group 2 - Various gold shops displayed a wide range of gold prices on the same day, indicating a competitive market [2] - The lowest gold price was offered by Zhou Liufu at 1044 yuan per gram, while Cai Bai priced their gold at 1045 yuan per gram [7][8] - The highest gold price among the listed brands was set by Chow Sang Sang at 1090 yuan per gram [4] Group 3 - Financial institutions offered more stable gold bar prices compared to the fluctuating gold jewelry market, providing an alternative asset allocation for investors [16] - The price of gold bars from major banks ranged from 831 yuan per gram at the Shanghai Gold Exchange to 869 yuan per gram at China Gold [22][23] - Agricultural Bank's "Chuan Shi Zhi Bao Gold Bar" was priced at 864.27 yuan per gram, which was slightly higher than other state-owned banks [19] Group 4 - In the T D (deferred delivery trading) market, gold and silver showed more active price movements, with gold prices experiencing significant fluctuations [28] - The latest transaction price for Au T D gold was 834.57 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 9.37 yuan, reflecting a 1.14% rise [28] - Silver prices surged dramatically, with Ag T D silver reaching 101731 yuan per kilogram, marking a substantial daily increase of 2712.74 yuan [28] Group 5 - Recent international gold prices have been notably strong, reaching a historical high of 3707.40 USD per ounce following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [31] - Despite a slight pullback, gold prices remained robust, closing at 3684.93 USD per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 1.15% over five consecutive weeks [31] - The current bull market in gold is characterized by a nearly 40% increase in price since the beginning of the year, a remarkable performance compared to historical trends [33]

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund has shown a slight decline recently, but overall, it has experienced a weekly increase, reflecting heightened market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Market Performance - As of September 24, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.11%, with a latest price of 8.12 yuan. However, it has risen by 1.44% over the past week [1]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund is notable, with an intraday turnover of 0.57% and a transaction volume of 169 million yuan. The average daily transaction over the past week was 1.174 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1]. Economic Indicators - Gold prices reached a historical high for the third consecutive day, with spot gold touching $3,791.10 per ounce, driven by increasing market risk aversion [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and a slight rise in unemployment, with inflation remaining above the 2% target. The Fed recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% [1]. Institutional Insights - Short-term catalysts for gold demand include ambiguous Fed policy expectations and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, which are expected to sustain the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - In the medium to long term, the increase in gold reserves by central banks globally, the potential restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system, and the downward trend in real interest rates are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [3]. Related Products - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its associated products, such as the BoShi Gold ETF Connect funds, closely track the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot contracts (Au9999), offering convenient trading options and low fees suitable for both short-term trading and long-term asset allocation [4]. - Recent data indicates a continued influx of leveraged funds into the gold ETF, with a net financing amount of 10.6586 million yuan on the previous trading day and a latest financing balance of 3.569 billion yuan [4].

日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2025-09-19 1227.45 5.69 2025-09-18 1221.76 1.52 【要闻回顾】 美国最高法院设定11月5日就特朗普全面全球关税的合法性进行辩论。下级法院曾裁定特朗普依据紧急 状态法实施多数关税属越权行为，但在最高法院审理期间这些关税仍有效力，令市场保持警惕。 摘要9月19日，COMEX黄金库存录得1227.45吨，较上一交易日增加5.69吨；COMEX黄金周五（9月19 日）收3719.40美元/盎司，上涨1.12%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3719.60美元/盎司，最低触及 3664.40美元/盎司。 9月19日，COMEX黄金库存录得1227.45吨，较上一交易日增加5.69吨；COMEX黄金周五（9月19日） 收3719.40美元/盎司，上涨1.12%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3719.60美元/盎司，最低触及3664.40 美元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 上周五北约部队拦截三架闯入爱沙尼亚领空的俄军米格-31战机。特朗普对此表示不满，称若俄罗斯升 级敌对行动将协助保卫欧盟成员国。地缘政治风险持续发酵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices reaching new highs. After the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, some investment funds took profits, causing precious metal prices to briefly pull back before rebounding strongly on Friday [2][5]. - Fed Chair Powell defined the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, mainly to address the weakening labor market, but he indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to initiate large - scale easing. The market's mixed interpretation of his remarks led to some capital outflows and a price correction [2][6]. - Although the Fed's rate cut was finalized, Powell's speech was seen as "releasing uncertainty signals", triggering some investors to take profits. However, recent geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine situation have enhanced gold's safe - haven appeal. The significant increase in gold ETF holdings and central banks' continuous gold purchases support the gold price, while silver's price has reached new highs due to its industrial properties and catch - up effect. Precious metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - **Gold**: SHFE gold closed at 830.56 yuan/gram, down 3.66 yuan (-0.44%); Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 826.00 yuan/gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.25%); COMEX gold closed at 3719.40 dollars/ounce, up 38.70 dollars (1.05%) [3]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver closed at 9971 yuan/kilogram, down 64 yuan (-0.64%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9940 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan (-0.54%); COMEX silver closed at 43.37 dollars/ounce, up 0.69 dollars (1.60%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. The FOMC statement recognized the weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. Powell said employment growth has slowed, and inflation is still slightly high [5]. - Powell's "risk management" statement and the mixed market interpretation led to some capital outflows and price corrections. Geopolitical tensions, increased gold ETF holdings, and central bank purchases support the upward trend of precious metal prices [2][6]. 3. Important Data Information - **US Economic Data**: The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 21 points to - 8.7; August retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month; new home starts in August decreased from 1.429 million to 1.307 million; building permits decreased from 1.362 million to 1.312 million; the MBA 30 - year mortgage rate dropped 10 basis points to 6.39%; initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 [8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%; the Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale; the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [9]. 4. Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 19, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, an increase of 19.76 tons from the previous week; the iShare silver holdings were 15,205.14 tons, an increase of 145.40 tons from the previous week [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on September 16, 2025, non - commercial net long positions were 266,410, an increase of 4,670 from the previous week; for silver futures, non - commercial net long positions were 51,538, a decrease of 2,399 from the previous week [11][12].