Group 1 - The black commodity futures have risen, with coking coal main contract increasing by over 3% [1] - The main contract for coke has increased by over 2% [1] - The main iron ore contract has risen by over 1% [1] Group 2 - Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts have increased by nearly 1% [1] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil main contracts have turned positive, with increases of 0.23% and 0.22% respectively [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a short - term volatile state. The iron ore futures prices showed an upward trend on Thursday, but the main contract still faces strong pressure at 720 and has a support level at 690. The market needs to wait for better trading opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main iron ore contract closed at 705.5, up 0.64%, and the secondary main contract closed at 679.5, up 0.74%. [3] Important Information - The third - batch funds for the consumer goods trade - in program will be issued in July by the National Development and Reform Commission. - The Eurasian Economic Commission continues to impose anti - dumping duties on seamless steel pipes from China. [3] Market Logic - Spot prices of steel coils and rebar on Thursday showed mixed trends with average trading volume. In the futures market, coking coal led the rise, and the prices of finished steel products increased at the end of the session. - According to steel association data, this week, rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand slightly increased. Hot - rolled coil production and inventory slightly increased, while apparent demand decreased. - The arrival volume of iron ore this period increased. Iron ore shipments will continue to surge at the end of the month, which will impact the arrival volume in July. Attention should be paid to the hot - metal production data released at night. - Among the black commodities, the rise of coking coal may drive up other black commodities. Currently, the iron ore futures price is still within the volatile range. [3] Trading Strategy - Wait for the right opportunity. [3]

Group 1 - The main contracts of black series futures have seen a short-term rise, with coking coal increasing by over 5% [1] - Coking coal and coke prices have risen by more than 2% and iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coil have all increased by over 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [5][9][16] - Specific product ratings: - Steel: oscillating [7] - Iron ore: oscillating [7][9] - Scrap steel: oscillating [8] - Coke: oscillating weakly [8][10] - Coking coal: oscillating weakly [11][13] - Glass: oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: oscillating weakly [12][14] - Ferrosilicon: oscillating [15][16] - Silicomanganese: oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction in the coking coal market has increased, and the prices of the black series have rebounded as a whole. However, due to the approaching off - season of domestic construction and manufacturing industries and the under - expected "rush for exports", the demand is difficult to increase, so the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy orientation [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Black Building Materials Market - **Supply and demand situation**: The domestic demand is seasonally weakening, and the "rush for exports" in the manufacturing industry is under - expected. The off - season trend remains unchanged. Electric furnaces and some blast furnaces have started to make losses, and the molten iron is expected to decline, but the overall profitability provides some support to the cost side [2][3][5] - **Rebound driver**: Low valuation combined with news speculation brings rebound drive, but the height is limited [2][3][5] 3.2 Specific Product Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - **Core logic**: The prices of raw materials rebounded, but the fundamentals changed little. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and there are still expectations of tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand expectation is still weak. The molten iron is at a high level, and the steel output has increased. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week, and the inventory has decreased, but the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand suppress the futures price [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved this week, but the expectation is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Core logic**: The overseas supply increment is lower than expected, the cumulative annual shipment has decreased year - on - year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down. The steel enterprises' profitability and order status are still good, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small. Affected by the coking coal news, the iron ore price has also increased slightly [3][7] - **Outlook**: If the molten iron can stop falling around 240,000 tons per day as expected and the macro sentiment warms up, the price is expected to continue to rise, but the upside space is limited, and the 09 contract will oscillate in a wide range [7] 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - **Core logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume is low, and the electric furnace valley - electricity is in a loss state. The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded slightly, and the total inventory has decreased slightly. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has decreased. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly [8] - **Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace valley - electricity loss has intensified. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [8] 3.2.4 Coke - **Core logic**: The expectation of coking coal supply tightening has increased, but the actual supply - demand remains loose. The supply of coke is stable, but the inventory has accumulated. The demand is weakening, and the cost support is insufficient [8][10] - **Outlook**: The coking coal price is continuously falling, and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the short - term upward trend of the futures price will be difficult to sustain [10] 3.2.5 Coking Coal - **Core logic**: The expectation of supply tightening has increased due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase. However, the actual supply is still loose, the demand is expected to decline, and the upstream inventory pressure is increasing [4][11] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of coking coal remains loose, and the high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [11] 3.2.6 Glass - **Core logic**: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, the deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. The daily melting volume is stable, and the price is low, which inhibits the resumption of production. The inventory in the upstream is expected to increase, and the inventory in the middle reaches has decreased. The futures price oscillates due to news and sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The price cut of Hubei's spot goods leads the futures price to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the price - cut range of Hubei's manufacturers, and the short - term view is oscillating weakly [12] 3.2.7 Soda Ash - **Core logic**: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by the coal market news, the price has fluctuated, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [12][14] - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [14] 3.2.8 Ferrosilicon - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of ferrosilicon has rebounded from a low level. The supply has increased slightly, but the demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is cautious [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The cost may still have a drag effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel procurement and production situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] 3.2.9 Silicomanganese - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of silicomanganese has rebounded from a low level. The cost is weakly stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [14] - **Outlook**: The supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand is becoming looser. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell due to cost inversion. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel prices were still weak with significant declines. The rebar price fell below the valley - electricity cost, but blast - furnace profits remained positive. Terminal orders decreased, affecting cold - rolled steel inventories. After the tariff reduction in May, demand recovered, and the April rush for re - export trade also supported demand. Short - term steel inventory pressure is expected to be low, supporting high production levels. However, steel prices are affected by the decline of carbon elements and the seasonal decline of hot - metal production. Negative - feedback trading may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fell weakly. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and arrivals were at a relatively low level. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined from its peak, and direct and indirect export orders for finished products were below expectations. The market is trading the negative - feedback expectation in advance. Although the terminal demand for finished products may weaken in the off - season, it still has some resilience. The decline of hot - metal production is limited. Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments, and the supply pressure will increase. Short - term iron ore prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support around 670 - 680 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coke has been lowered twice, and there are still 1 - 2 rounds of expected price cuts. On the supply side, due to the decline of downstream hot - metal production, coke enterprises' shipments slowed down, but production increased slightly, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May but declined slightly last week, and blast - furnace开工率 has shown signs of peaking. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventories are accumulating, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and steel mills' inventories are decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coking coal has been falling, and the futures market has a deep - discount structure with high hedging pressure. The supply is abundant, with high domestic coal production and weak imported coal prices. The demand side shows that coking production is increasing slightly, but downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. Coal mines' inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract fell. An Inner Mongolia large - scale factory partially shut down furnaces, reducing daily production. Supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, but inventories are still at a medium - high level. Some producers are suffering losses and reducing production. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined this week, and the demand for ferrosilicon is limited. The cost of semi - coke is weakly stable. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, but short - term demand lacks support, and costs may decline, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferromanganese futures main contract fluctuated weakly. In Inner Mongolia, some factories are resuming production, and the supply pressure is concentrated in the northern region. On the demand side, hot - metal production is declining, and the market is trading the negative - feedback expectation. The overall finished products are in the process of de - stocking, but the cold - rolled pressure is still large. Manganese ore prices are under pressure due to high future arrivals. In the future, the short - term supply pressure of ferromanganese is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices all declined. For example, rebar spot in East China decreased from 3150 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3230 to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China all decreased [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 4.1 to 872.4 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Rebar production increased by 4.9 to 231.5 tons, an increase of 2.2%, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 6.3 to 305.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.1 to 1398.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. Rebar inventory decreased by 15.7 to 604.2 tons, a decrease of 2.5%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.4 to 340.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 10.2 tons, an increase of 6.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 904.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also decreased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 131.7 to 77.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also decreased [4]. Supply - The global weekly iron ore shipments increased by 318.8 to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, but the weekly arrivals decreased by 83.3 to 2271.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5% [4]. Demand - The 45 - port average daily ore - removal volume increased by 3.2 to 327.1 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 682.2 to 8601 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 129.0 to 13858.79 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill imported - ore inventory decreased by 35.7 to 8925.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices decreased. The coke 09 contract decreased from 1375 to 1364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%, and the coke 01 contract decreased from 1391 to 1388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The coking profit decreased by 22 to - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.7% [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal decreased. The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased from 1030 to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 984.9 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The coking - plant inventory increased by 9.0 to 103.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, the steel - mill inventory decreased by 3.2 to 660.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.1 to 221.0 tons, a decrease of 1.8% [6]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 1.4 tons, an increase of 40.0% [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices decreased. The coking coal 09 contract decreased from 800 to 799.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%, and the coking coal 01 contract decreased from 813 to 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The sample coal - mine profit decreased by 17 to 382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.3% [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking - coal arrival price remained unchanged, while the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking - coal ex - warehouse price increased by 160 to 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0% [6]. Supply - The weekly raw - coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 2.8 to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the weekly clean - coal production increased by 1.9 to 459.2 tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 19.4 to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 19.2 to 865.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.1 to 301.0 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon futures main - contract price decreased from 5506 to 5452 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, but the production profits decreased. The production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 to - 156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.5 to 8.9 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, and the production - enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.8 to 30.4%, a decrease of 2.6% [7]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.0 to 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. Inventory - The 60 - sample - enterprise ferrosilicon inventory increased by 0.1 to 7.5 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the downstream average available days decreased by 0.2 to 15.2 days, a decrease of 1.6% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese futures main - contract price decreased from 5668 to 5616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ores in Tianjin Port decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi decreased, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 32.8 to - 203.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2% [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly manganese - ore shipments decreased by 16.5 to 68.6 tons, a decrease of 19.4%, but the weekly arrivals increased by 3.3 to 54.3 tons, an increase of 6.5% [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The weekly manganese - ore port inventory increased by 23.2 to 418.0 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferromanganese production increased by 0.2 to 16.5 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the operating rate increased by 0.6 to 34.2%, an increase of 1.74% [7]. Demand - The ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 12.7 tons, an increase of 0.8%. The ferromanganese procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group increased by 0.0 to 1.2 tons, an increase of 1.8% [7]. Inventory - The 63 - sample - enterprise ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.6 to 20.1 tons, a decrease of 2.9%, and the average available days decreased by 1.2 to 15 days, a decrease of 7.0% [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant drop in rebar futures, which fell below the 3000 mark, indicating a potential crisis in the black metal sector [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the decline in rebar futures is part of a broader collapse in the black metal market, raising concerns about underlying economic factors [1] - It questions the reasons behind this downturn, hinting at possible market manipulation or external economic pressures as the main culprits [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the positive effects of tariff negotiations are digested by the market, the black - series products still face pressure from weak fundamentals. Steel will enter the consumption off - season, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills' profits are acceptable, supporting high - level operation of hot metal production, so the rigid demand for coke is strong. It is expected that the first round of coke price cuts will likely be implemented. Coke supply tends to be loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate. For coking coal, the overall production of main - producing area mines is normal with sufficient supply. The coking coal spot market is running weakly, and the futures market is also expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 opened at 1508.0 and closed at 1475.0, up 33.0; J2505 opened at 1587.5 and had a certain change; J2508 opened at 1482.0 and closed at 1447.0. The spread between different contracts also changed, such as J09 - J01 changing from - 26.0 to - 28.0, up 2.0 [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 opened at 911.0 and closed at 881.5, down 29.5; JM2505 opened at 850.5 and had a small change. The spreads between different coking coal contracts also had corresponding changes, like JM01 - JM05 changing from 60.5 to 31.5, down 29.0 [2]. - **Spot Market**: For coke, the ex - factory prices in places like Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. For coking coal, the prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coal, and the prices of different coking coal warehouse receipts had different changes. The coking profit of different contracts also changed, for example, the 01 contract's coking profit decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Night - session Review - JM2509 closed at 888.5 yuan/ton, J2509 closed at 1478 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 234.2 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The prices of different spot warehouse receipts were also provided [3]. 3.3 Important Information - China's social financing scale increment from January to April was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. The M2 money supply in April increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [4]. - China's first full - scale reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 was officially implemented on May 15, with a 0.5 - percentage - point cut for financial institutions (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio) [4]. - The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs, implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, suspending 24% of the tariffs for 90 days, and retaining 10% of the tariffs. It also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and cancelled a planned increase in the specific tax [4]. - China and the US agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, leading to a "rush - shipping tide" in foreign trade enterprises, with a significant increase in shipping space bookings and freight rates [4]. - China's Ministry of Commerce decided to suspend export control measures on 28 US entities and measures on 17 US entities on the unreliable entity list for 90 days starting from May 14 [4]. - The construction of the second cross - border railway between China and Mongolia, the China Ganqimaodu - Mongolia Gashuun Sukhait Railway, started on May 14, with a total length of 9.91 kilometers [5]. - On May 14, the iron ore trading volume at major ports was 123.30 million tons, a 65.1% increase; the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 11.98 million tons, a 22.4% increase [5]. - The average cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2902 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton lower than last week. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2980 yuan/ton on May 14, the average profit of steel mills was 78 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - For coke, the first - round price cut has started, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet increased by 30 yuan/ton. The futures price of coke is expected to fluctuate. For coking coal, the main - producing area mines have normal production and sufficient supply. The coking coal spot market is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [6].

智通财经5月8日电，黑色系期货跳水，焦煤、焦炭主力合约跌近3%，铁矿主力合约跌近2%，螺纹、热 卷主力合约跌近1%。 ...

Group 1 - The black commodity futures prices have declined, with coking coal and coke main contracts dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore has decreased by nearly 1% [1] - Hot-rolled and rebar have both fallen by nearly 0.5% [1]