Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" aims to optimize the city's real estate policies by reducing housing purchase restrictions and increasing financial support for homebuyers, thereby stimulating market demand and stabilizing expectations in the real estate sector [1][2]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows non-Shanghai residents who have paid social insurance or individual income tax for at least one year to purchase unlimited housing outside the outer ring and one unit within the inner ring. Those with three years of contributions can buy two units in the inner ring, while holders of a Shanghai residence permit for over five years can buy one unit citywide [1]. - The policy also raises the public housing fund loan limit for first-time buyers to 2.4 million yuan, with a maximum of 3.24 million yuan, and optimizes loan conditions to alleviate financial pressure on families [1]. Market Impact - The announcement is expected to boost housing transactions during the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," with the real estate sector and related industries, such as steel, experiencing significant stock price increases [2][3]. - The real estate sector accounts for approximately 25% of domestic steel consumption, making it a crucial demand driver for the black metal sector [3]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of February 23, 2026, social steel inventory was reported at 10.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, while member companies of the China Iron and Steel Association reported a steel inventory of 15.11 million tons, down 6.8% year-on-year [4]. - The reduction in high furnace loads in northern steel mills due to environmental regulations is expected to lead to a decrease in daily iron output, coinciding with the seasonal increase in downstream demand [5]. Future Outlook - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a stable demand environment as the policy effects take time to materialize. The focus will be on the sales data for March and April to determine if the anticipated demand growth is realized [6]. - The steel market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to cost support from supply constraints, although the potential for significant price increases will depend on the speed of demand recovery [6].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The current supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, with little inventory pressure, which supports prices to some extent. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward drive, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment changes [4] Group 3 Market Performance - Coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, rising for two consecutive days, and opened and closed higher at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions implemented the first round of coking price increases, while the coking coal market prices were generally weak and stable [3] Driving Factors - India declared coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As a country with continuous growth in the steel industry and high dependence on coking coal imports, it is expected to remain a key driver of global coking coal demand. News about real - estate policies stimulated the stock market's real - estate sector, and the continuous rise of precious and non - ferrous metal prices created a positive atmosphere for the strength of black - series futures [3] Fundamental Situation - Near the Spring Festival, coal production decreased slightly this week due to safety inspections and other factors, with raw coal and clean coal production at 1.978 million tons and 771,000 tons respectively. It is expected that coal mines will start to have holidays on February 5, with an average of 10.1 days, similar to last year. The planned production cuts involve about 744 million tons of production capacity, affecting 18.68 million tons of raw coal output. The expected reduction in coal supply supports coal prices, but the production cuts are in line with past years' patterns, and downstream industries have stocked up in advance [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term**: The steel market maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, with limited inventory pressure, but weak real - estate data drags down demand. Iron ore overseas supply continues to shrink, and the inventory is transferred from ports to steel mills. The long - term prices of steel and iron ore are under pressure. The glass market has a weak fundamental pattern, and the long - term price is also under pressure. The soda ash supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high supply and inventory accumulation [78][82] - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore show a short - term oscillating trend. Glass and soda ash may rebound with macro - sentiment in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [79][83] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From January 16 to January 23, 2026, the closing prices of most black - series futures contracts decreased. For example, the RB2605 rebar contract decreased from 3163 to 3142, a decrease of 21 with a decline rate of 1%. The HC2605 hot - rolled coil contract decreased from 3315 to 3305, a decrease of 10 with a decline rate of 0%. The I2605 iron ore contract decreased from 812 to 795, a decrease of 17 with a decline rate of 2%. The J2605 coke contract increased from 1717 to 1722, an increase of 5 with an increase rate of 0%. The JM2605 coking coal contract decreased from 1171 to 1157, a decrease of 14 with a decline rate of 1%. The FG605 glass contract decreased from 1103 to 1064, a decrease of 39 with a decline rate of 4%. The SA605 soda ash contract increased from 1192 to 1198, an increase of 6 with an increase rate of 1% [3] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices and basis of each variety are also provided. For example, the rebar spot price is 3270, and the basis is 128; the hot - rolled coil spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 15 [3] - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On January 22, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 65 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 23, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 199.55 tons, an increase of 9.25 tons [13] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 23, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 185.52 tons, a decrease of 4.82 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 71531 tons [19] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 303.12 tons, an increase of 7.71 tons compared with the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 148.98 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons compared with the previous week [24] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 16, the global iron ore shipment volume was reported at 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 251 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons compared with the previous week [29] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9388.82 tons, an increase of 126.6 tons compared with the previous week [34] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 23, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 320.5 tons, a decrease of 14.5 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was reported at 91.3 tons [39] 3.4 Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 23, the number of operating float glass production lines was reported at 212, the same as the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1055215 tons, an increase of 2900 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 75.57%, and the operating rate was reported at 71.62% [44] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 5321.58 million weight - boxes, an increase of 20.28 million weight - boxes compared with the previous week; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous week [49] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.3 days [53] - **Production Profit**: In the week of January 23, the production gross profit of the float process using coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using petroleum coke as fuel was - 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [57] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.42%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was reported at 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons compared with the previous week [60] - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 152.12 tons, a decrease of 5.38 tons compared with the previous week [65] - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: As of January 23, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.98%, an increase of 7.28 percentage points compared with the previous week [70] - **Enterprise Profit**: As of January 22, the profit of ammonia - soda enterprises was reported at - 23 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the profit of combined - soda enterprises was reported at - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [74]

Group 1: Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3111 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 13,300 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices for rebar and related products have slightly decreased, with Tangshan's price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 2930 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's price also down by 20 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton [3][12] - A significant explosion at a large steel mill has led to expectations of production halts for up to three months, contributing to a decrease in daily average pig iron production by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons [3][12] Group 2: Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 789.5 CNY/ton, down 4.5 CNY/ton or 0.57%, with a trading volume of 360,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 30,000 contracts [3][12] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while other countries have seen slight increases, leading to an overall decline in supply [3][12] - Iron water production has decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons, contributing to rising port and steel mill inventories [3][12] Group 3: Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 50.5 CNY/ton or 4.3%, with an increase in open interest by 29,998 contracts [5][14] - The supply of coking coal remains stable, with increased production from coal mines and improved shipment rates, while demand from steel companies has shown a slight slowdown [5][14] - The price of certain coal products has varied, with some increasing while others have decreased, indicating mixed market conditions [5][14] Group 4: Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1673.5 CNY/ton, down 47.5 CNY/ton or 2.76%, with an increase in open interest by 792 contracts [6][15] - The current supply of coke is stable, with production levels remaining consistent, but demand from steel mills has decreased due to seasonal factors [6][15] - The price of coke in the spot market has also seen a decline, with the price at Rizhao Port dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 1450 CNY/ton [6][15] Group 5: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5760 CNY/ton, down 0.89%, with a decrease in open interest by 13,668 contracts to 215,200 contracts [7][16] - Prices in various regions have decreased, with Inner Mongolia down by 20 CNY/ton and Ningxia down by 30 CNY/ton [7][16] - The overall market sentiment is weak, influenced by declining prices in the black metal sector, particularly for coking coal and coke [7][16] Group 6: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5552 CNY/ton, down 0.07%, with an increase in open interest by 15,954 contracts to 245,600 contracts [8][17] - The export volume of silicon iron has increased by 7.6% month-on-month, but the annual cumulative export has decreased by 8.15% [8][17] - The supply of silicon iron remains stable, with production at a five-year low, while demand from steel mills is limited [8][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: For rebar, the cost side is frequently disturbed, the supply has been increasing, the apparent demand has been declining, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for iron ore, the supply is loose, the downstream hot metal production has bottomed out, and it will mainly fluctuate. For glass, the number of production lines and weekly output are decreasing, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for soda ash, the industry profit is declining, the market start - up is increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly [65][69]. - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term with room for correction; glass and soda ash will maintain a weak pattern and continue to fluctuate at a low level [66][70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Price Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures main contracts all increased, with increases of 1%, 1%, 3%, 3%, 7%, 5%, and 2% respectively [3]. - **Rebar**: On January 8, the rebar blast furnace profit was 68 yuan/ton [7]. Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, a 2070 - ton increase; the rebar output was 191,040 tons, a 2820 - ton increase [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the apparent consumption of rebar was 174,960 tons, a 25,480 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 83,801 tons [17]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the social inventory of rebar was 290,180 tons, a 7520 - ton decrease; the in - factory inventory was 147,930 tons, an 8560 - ton increase [22]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 2, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a 463,400 - ton decrease; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.8247 million tons, a 96,900 - ton increase [27]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.04444 million tons, a 322,650 - ton increase; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98959 million tons, a 43,050 - ton increase [32]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 336,960 tons, a 3250 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 103,000 tons [37]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 212, a decrease of 2; the weekly output was 1,059,245 tons, a decrease of 14,130 tons; as of January 8, the capacity utilization rate was 75%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [42]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the in - factory inventory of float glass was 55.518 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - factory inventory were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days [45]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 4, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 8.6 days [49]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, a 4.43 - percentage - point increase; the output was 75,360 tons, a 5650 - ton increase [52]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157,270 tons, a 16,440 - ton increase [57]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of January 9, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a 26.15 - percentage - point decrease [61].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering steel products, iron ore, glass, and soda ash, with data from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the medium to long - term, the steel industry's prosperity is declining, with weakening demand for rebar and downward pressure on iron ore futures prices. Glass and soda ash also face challenges, with limited upward momentum for glass and weak demand for soda ash [67][71] - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore are expected to trade in a range, while glass and soda ash are likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [68][72] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodities Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price rose from 3117 to 3157 (up 1%), with a spot price of 3290 and a basis of 133 [2] - **Hot - rolled coil (HC2605)**: Futures price increased from 3288 to 3320 (up 1%), spot price 3300, basis - 20 [2] - **Iron ore (I2601)**: Futures price dropped from 794 to 786 (down 1%), spot price 810, basis 25 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price rose from 1575 to 1585 (up 1%), spot price 1720, basis 135 [2] - **Coking coal (JM2605)**: Futures price decreased from 1152 to 1140 (down 1%), spot price 1510, basis 370 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price fell from 1053 to 994 (down 6%), spot price 1130, basis 136 [2] - **Soda ash (SA601)**: Futures price declined from 1177 to 1137 (down 3%), spot price 1258, basis 121 [2] 3.2 Rebar Analysis - **Profit**: On December 4, the blast - furnace profit for rebar was 31 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of December 5, the blast - furnace operating rate was 80.16% (down 0.93 percentage points), daily hot - metal output was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons), and weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons (down 16.77 tons) [12] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 10.96 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume of construction steel by major traders was 93,867 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, social rebar inventory was 361.13 tons (down 23.62 tons), and in - plant inventory was 142.68 tons (down 4.05 tons) [23] 3.3 Iron Ore Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, global iron - ore shipments were 3323.2 tons (up 44.8 tons), and arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2784 tons (down 155.5 tons) [28] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15991.11 tons (up 89.89 tons), and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 42.25 tons) [33] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 334.23 tons (down 9.83 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 126.6 tons [38] 3.4 Float Glass Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 218 (down 2), weekly output was 1085095 tons (down 18800 tons). As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate was 77.25%, and the operating rate was 73.4% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, in - plant float - glass inventory was 59.442 million weight - boxes (down 2.92 million tons), and the available inventory days were 26.8 days (down 0.7 days) [48] - **Demand**: In the week of December 1, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 10.1 days [52] 3.5 Soda Ash Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74% (down 0.66 percentage points), and production was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons) [55] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, in - plant soda - ash inventory was 153.86 tons (down 4.88 tons) [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of December 5, the soda - ash sales ratio was 106.93% (down 1.23 percentage points) [64] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Medium - to long - term outlook is bearish due to weakening demand and low winter - storage willingness. Short - term trading should be based on a range - bound strategy [67][68] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Medium - to long - term, glass has limited upward momentum, and soda - ash demand is weak. Short - term, they are expected to trade weakly and oscillate [71][72]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Shi Lei [2] - Research Assistant: Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Mid - to - Long - Term**: For steel and iron ore, the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, macro - level positive impacts are weakening, and the market is returning to fundamental influences. With increasing environmental restrictions and approaching winter storage, there is an expectation of a mild rebound in steel and iron ore futures, but trading should be based on an oscillatory mindset. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, with stable supply and weak downstream demand, maintaining a weak pattern. Soda ash has a slight reduction in inventory, weak downstream demand, and a supply - surplus situation, with the main contract continuing a weak oscillatory trend [62][66] - **Short - Term**: For black series products, influenced by the "14th Five - Year Plan" on new infrastructure and stable real estate policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the overall market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week, but cooled on Friday. Steel, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are expected to oscillate, with risks of repeated fluctuations. Glass and soda ash followed the sector up and then down, with prices under pressure, and short - term trading should be based on fundamental logic [63][67] Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price (10/24/2025) | Futures Closing Price (10/31/2025) | Change | Percentage Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2601) | 3046.0 | 3106.0 | 60.0 | 2.0% | 3230.0 | 124.0 | | Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601) | 3250.0 | 3308.0 | 58.0 | 1.8% | 3330.0 | 22.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 771.0 | 800.0 | 29.0 | 3.8% | 814.0 | 14.0 | | Coke (J2601) | 1757.5 | 1777.0 | 19.5 | 1.1% | 1670.0 | - 107.0 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 1248.5 | 1286.0 | 37.5 | 3.0% | 1450.0 | 164.0 | | Glass (FG601) | 1092.0 | 1083.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.8% | 1210.0 | 127.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 1229.0 | 1225.0 | - 4.0 | - 0.3% | 1270.6 | 45.6 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On October 30, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 58 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply Side**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons; the rebar output was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons [12] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.3218 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,700 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 90,196 tons [16] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 66,800 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.7171 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons [21] Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 24, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,900 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.0843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 592,000 tons [26] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15.27293 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,440 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.84986 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229,330 tons [31] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the average daily discharge volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 331,220 tons, a week - on - week increase of 91,500 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 74,000 tons [36] Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, unchanged from the previous week; as of October 30, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%, unchanged [41] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 823,000 weight boxes compared to October 24; the available days of in - plant inventory were 28 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 days [46] Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.89%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points from the previous week; the output was 757,600 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week [50] - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [55] - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of October 31, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 100.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains unchanged in the black industry before the National Day. The industry contradictions are not prominent, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. The key lies in the steel demand after the festival to support the current high pig iron production [1][4]. - The glass market is affected by factors such as price increases of major manufacturers and downstream replenishment. Although there is a pressure range above the glass 2601 contract, it is still regarded as bullish in the near future [2][4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened, and the key after the festival is also the steel demand and the resumption progress of coking coal production [4]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - Last Friday, the rebar futures price dropped significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou dropped to 3300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is 201. The rebar futures price has fallen below the cost of electric furnace valley electricity and long - process, with low static valuation. The macro policy expectations are rising, but the industrial demand is still weak year - on - year. Focus on the demand in October. The raw material supply - demand has weakened, and coking coal and coke have started to accumulate inventory. The RB2601 has support at 3000 - 3100 [1]. Iron Ore - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has slowly declined but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The daily average pig iron output last week was 242.36 (+1.34) million tons. It is difficult to see short - term negative feedback. The iron ore has a high valuation in the black system, and the rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level. Before the festival, it follows the steel price trend, and the key after the festival is the steel demand [1]. Glass - Last week, the glass futures first fell and then rose. The spot prices of some major glass manufacturers increased by 100 yuan/ton, and other enterprises followed. The supply side had no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to downstream replenishment and futures - cash traders' purchases. The cost of coal - gas has increased, but the profits of spot and petroleum coke have risen, while natural gas is still in a loss state. The processing plants are mainly waiting and seeing, only maintaining rigid demand procurement and a small amount of pre - festival stocking [2]. Soda Ash - The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased significantly due to the accelerated pick - up of goods by futures - cash traders. However, considering the second - phase project of Yuanxing, the output is still expected to increase, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the coking coal output continued to rise, with the daily average output of 194 million tons in 523 coking coal mines across the country. Before the festival, the downstream replenished stocks, the coal mine inventory decreased, and the inventory of coal washing plants and coking plants increased, with a large increase in total inventory. The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, the coke output decreased slightly last week, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Coking Coal and Coke [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For coking coal, the mine inventory is being depleted, and spot transactions have started to see price increases. The coking coal 2601 contract is oscillating [5]. - For coke, the first round of price increase has been proposed, and the coke 2601 contract is oscillating [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt price is 1083, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt price is 1192, coke warehouse receipt price is 1620, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1599 [10]. 2. Demand, Profit, and开工 - The coking plant's disk profit (01 contract) is 168, a week-on-week increase of 10 [10]. - The full - scale daily coke output is 112.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.59 tons [10]. - The hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.5 tons [10]. - The coal washing plant's output is 27.53 tons (with changes in the coal washing plant sample data), a week - on - week increase of 0.73 tons [10]. 3. Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 920.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23 tons and a year - on - year increase of 96.7 tons. Coking plant coke inventory is 63.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.37 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82 tons. Steel mill coke inventory is 661.31 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.64 tons and a year - on - year increase of 100.66 tons. Port inventory is 196.06 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.04 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.86 tons [12]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2060.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.69 tons and a year - on - year increase of 81.15 tons. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 999.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58.66 tons and a year - on - year increase of 58.99 tons. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 796.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.73 tons and a year - on - year increase of 71.31 tons. Port inventory is 265.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.7 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 133.54 tons. Coal washing plant inventory is 310.73 tons (with data sample changes), a week - on - week increase of 6.36 tons [14]. 4. Import and Export - From January to July, the imported coking coal was 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. From January to July, the exported coke was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [17].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Report Date: 9/12/2025 - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Mid - long term: The rebar 01 contract mainly oscillated at a low level this week. Steel mills have fully resumed production, and the supply of rebar is expected to increase. The PPI continued to decline in August but the decline narrowed, the PMI data was still below the boom - bust line, and the real estate data remained weak, lacking support on the finished product demand side. The new policy proposed by the Guinean government regarding the Simandou iron ore development has a shrinking impact. The daily average hot metal output has significantly increased, strengthening the support on the iron ore demand side, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, the weekly output increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the demand side recovered slowly. For soda ash, the factory inventory continued to decline, with mainly rigid demand procurement from downstream, and the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract oscillated weakly and steadily [64][68]. - Short term: Recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Pay attention to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". This week, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash improved limitedly, and the disk continued to consolidate at the bottom [65][69]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3143.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3127.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 16.0 (-0.5%), the spot price was 3220.0, and the basis was 93.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 3340.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3364.0 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 24.0 (0.7%), the spot price was 3400.0, and the basis was 36.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 789.5 on 9/5/2025 to 799.5 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 10.0 (1.3%), the spot price was 796.0, and the basis was - 3.5 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1646.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1625.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 21.0 (-1.3%), the spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 5.5 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1158.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1144.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 14.0 (-1.2%), the spot price was 1280.0, and the basis was 135.5 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1189.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1180.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 9.0 (-0.8%), the spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 60.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1302.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1290.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 12.0 (-0.9%), the spot price was 1280.9, and the basis was - 9.1 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On September 11, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with September 4 [7]. - Supply: As of 9/12/2025, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons; the rebar output was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 91,912 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the social inventory of rebar was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons compared with the previous week; the factory inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of September 5, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a decrease of 800,600 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 2.5729 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.45612 million tons, an increase of 30,400 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.99305 million tons, an increase of 53,180 tons [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 344,390 tons, an increase of 14,060 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 112,400 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 12, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 225, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1.121225 million tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; the start - up rate was 76.01%, the same as last week [38]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the factory inventory of float glass was 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million weight boxes compared with September 5; the available days of factory inventory were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous week [43]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.29%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 761,100 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons compared with the previous week [52]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons compared with the previous week [57]. - Sales - to - production ratio: As of September 12, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared with the previous week [61].