证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 12 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 怎么看 2026 年美联储降息节奏？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】增量信息不少—中央经济工作会议 6 大看点——20251211 【宏观】怎么看 2026 年美联储降息节奏？——兼评 12 月议息会议—— 20251211 【金融工程】低偏离度下的纯粹 Alpha 创造——兴银基金中小盘指增策 略探析——20251211 【非银金融】保险行业 2025 行情回顾——阶段性超额收益显著，全年跑 输大盘——20251211 ◼ 研究视点 【电子】蓝思科技（300433.SZ）-收购服务器业务公司，加码 AI 算力核 心布局——20251211 作者 | 分析师 | 杨润思 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680520030005 | | | | | 邮箱：yangrunsi@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 12.9% | 7.6% | 81.1% | | 国防 ...

证券代码：301486 证券简称：致尚科技 编号：2025-005 深圳市致尚科技股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 投资者关系活 动类别 ☑ 特定对象调研 □媒体采访 □新闻发布会 □现场参观 □分析师会议 □业绩说明会 □路演活动 □其他 参与单位名称 南方基金、博时基金、东方红、鹏华基金、新华基金、基石资本、华鑫证券、 光大保德信基金、惠华控股、华安基金、广发基金、奇点资产、泰康资产、 嘉实基金、平安基金、东方基金、赛马资本、泰康基金、新华资产、诺德基 金、交银基金、建信基金、汇丰晋信、华泰柏瑞基金、珠海横琴明富私募基 金、国泰海通证券、国金基金、重阳投资、深圳创华投资、国寿养老、3w capital、 华商基金、济略投资（广州）有限公司、深圳市古东管家科技有限责任公司、 博道基金、万家基金、浦银安盛、国联安 时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日 地点 公司会议室 上市公司接待 人员姓名 董事会秘书 陈丽玉 证券事务代表 方笳企 主要内容介绍 1. 请介绍 2025 年前三季度公司的经营情况？ 2025 年前三季度，公司营业收入 749,208,450.93 元，较上年同期增长 3.24%；归属于上市 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from "preventing and mitigating risks in key areas and external shocks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external economic conditions [1][16] - There is a transition from stabilizing asset prices to stabilizing microeconomic entities, emphasizing the importance of employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations over real estate and stock markets [2][16] - The policy language has evolved from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," reflecting a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term economic structure considerations [2][16] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a continued decline in the growth rate of social financing in November, while export growth is expected to turn positive [3][17] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.87%, showing a marginal increase [17] - The report notes that the financing demand remains low, with expectations for November's new loans to be between 450 billion to 500 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [17] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by the explosion of AI computing power and accelerated domestic production [11] - In the electronics sector, the demand for AI-driven OS agents is anticipated to lead to a smartphone replacement wave, with AR glasses expected to see significant market entry in 2026 [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic enterprises in the storage sector, which are benefiting from increased procurement by cloud service providers, leading to a "super cycle" in pricing [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced and proactive ETF allocation strategy in the A-share market, anticipating a period of range-bound trading with potential for sector rotation [7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies in the engineering machinery sector that have high export profitability, as well as those in the semiconductor and AI equipment sectors [12]

AI 手机加速迭代，ASIC 市场火热 20251207 摘要 AI 手机雏形已现，豆包手机展示了 AI 助手在日常场景的应用，通过自然 语言指令完成任务，类似苹果 Siri 的升级方向，预计 2026 年苹果、三 星、谷歌将跟进 Agent 应用。 定制化架构芯片（ASIC）通过牺牲通用性加速特定算法，降低应用成本； 英伟达 GPU 保留灵活性服务全行业开发者。短期内 ASIC 不会完全取代 GPU，两者将共同推动 AI 基础设施迭代。 英伟达 CUDA toolkit 13.1 版本是 20 年来最大更新，首次将 Tensor Core 函数抽象到 Python 层级，加速 GPU 软件栈进步，提升开发者生 态易用性，应对大模型发展趋势。 全球 AI 算力投资节奏快，模型端创新不断，云端算力需求强劲。2026 年创新节奏预计不落后于 2025 年，Gemini 3、GPT-5.2 等新模型发布 值得关注。 AI 手机端侧运行中小参数模型面临散热、续航和内存瓶颈。未来可能通 过蒸馏高参数模型解决，存储涨价背景下，苹果在硬件创新方面更具看 点。 Q&A 近期豆包与中兴合作推出 AI 手机预览版后，市场对 AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The listing of Moore Threads on the STAR Market marks a significant milestone for China's semiconductor industry, positioning it as the first fully functional GPU company to enter the capital market, further solidifying the narrative of a "Chinese version of Nvidia" [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On its debut, Moore Threads opened at 650 CNY per share, a 468.78% increase from the issuance price of 114.28 CNY, with an intraday high of 688 CNY, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 305.5 billion CNY [3]. - Early investors in Moore Threads, such as Peixian Qianyao Technology, saw returns as high as 6021 times their initial investment, highlighting the lucrative potential of the domestic GPU sector [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - Both Moore Threads and another GPU company, Muxi, achieved public listing within five years, breaking the typical 12-15 year timeline for tech companies [4]. - The year 2020 marked the beginning of domestic GPU development, with many talents from overseas chip giants returning to start businesses, including key figures from Nvidia and AMD [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Moore Threads has invested over 4.3 billion CNY in R&D from 2022 to June 2025, with its MTT S5000 supporting trillion-parameter model training, matching the efficiency of international counterparts [5]. - Muxi's new C700 chip is expected to rival Nvidia's H100, with mass production anticipated in 2027 [5]. Group 4: Revenue Growth - Moore Threads' revenue is projected to grow from 0.46 million CNY in 2022 to 4.38 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 208.44% [5]. - Muxi's revenue is expected to surge from 42.64 thousand CNY to 743 million CNY over the same period, with a CAGR exceeding 4000% [5]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of domestic GPU companies is reshaping the global AI computing landscape, driven by significant demand for AI computing power and the exit of Nvidia from the Chinese market due to export controls [4][5]. - The STAR Market has created a favorable environment for hard-tech companies, with the anticipated explosion of AI computing demand in 2025 providing a critical funding window [4].

鼎泰高科 20251202 摘要 鼎泰高科受益于 AI 算力服务器需求爆发，2025 年前三季度收入同比增 长 29%，归母净利润同比增长 64%，显示出强劲的增长势头。AI 服务 器中 HDI 板和高多层板需求激增，头部 PCB 厂商资本开支同比增速接近 70%，预示着新一轮扩产周期。 公司 PCB 钻针是核心收入来源，占比约 75%，研磨抛光材料毛利率高 达 61%，显著高于主业钻针的 35%。AI PCB 使用的图层钻针和高长径 比钻针对毛利率提升贡献显著，产能利用率提高也对盈利能力改善有积 极影响。 服务器架构迭代显著提高了 PCB 的重要性，例如 Ruby Ultra 方案采用 正交背板替代铜缆，增加了 PCB 的使用量和价值量。每个 computer tree 新增的 CPX 芯片也需要相应的封装基板和 PCB，芯片数量翻倍意 味着对 PCB 需求翻倍增长。 板厚提升显著增加了钻针消耗，从 GB200 到 Ruby Ultra 方案，单孔加 工所需钻针数量从一根增加到四根，消耗量成倍增长。同时，麻九 Q 布 材料的使用虽然提高了电信号传输速率，但也因其硬度增大导致单针加 工孔数明显下降。 Q&A ...

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为 AI 算力以及卫星信息基础设施相关标的都有望受益太空算力的发展： AI 算力：海光信息(688041，买入)、寒武纪-U(688256，未评级)； 卫星基础设施：中科星图(688568，未评级)、佳缘科技(301117，未评级)、航天宏图 (688066，增持)、盛邦安全(688651，未评级)。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期； 商业化进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 陈超 | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | --- | --- | | | chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 浦俊懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 | | | pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宋鑫宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860524090002 | | | songxinyu@orient ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of AI computing power driven by innovations such as Google's TPU and Huawei's open-source AI container technology, which enhance computational efficiency and resource utilization [1][2]. - The report indicates a new investment landscape in AI computing with the IPOs of companies like Moer Thread and Muxi, signaling strong market interest and potential growth [3]. - The report discusses the potential of space computing as a new frontier for AI, with significant initiatives from both private companies and government entities to establish data centers in space [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer sector has shown a relative performance increase of 1.57% against the Shanghai Composite Index this week, with an absolute gain of 2.97% [17][18]. - The overall performance of the computer sector has been strong, ranking 12th among 30 industry indices [20]. Important Industry News - Google's TPU has set a new direction for AI computing with its ASIC integration, supporting large model training [1][13]. - Huawei's Flex:ai technology aims to optimize AI workload management, addressing low resource utilization in domestic computing [2][14]. - The commercial space sector is rapidly evolving, with plans for large-scale data centers in orbit to meet the growing demand for AI computing power [4][16][26]. - The establishment of China's first large-scale photonic quantum computer manufacturing facility marks a significant advancement in quantum technology [24]. - Beijing's initiative to build a space-based data center by 2035 aims to leverage the advantages of the space environment for AI development [26].

划重点 ① 云计算正在经历一场暴力更迭。当 AWS 等传统巨头在忙着 AI 转型时，CoreWeave 等 Neocloud 正凭借极致效率，成为 AI 时代的"新基建"。RockFlow 投研团队认为，Neocloud 正在 打破旧秩序，填补算力黑洞，成为继 NVIDIA 芯片之后，AI 产业链中爆发力最强的 Alpha 赛 道。 ② CoreWeave 是这场大戏的绝对主角。从加密矿工到估值 370 亿美元的独角兽，其营收两年暴 涨 100 倍。这背后是英伟达"权力的游戏"——黄仁勋通过扶持"亲儿子"来制衡科技巨头，赋予 其优先配货权和百亿产能保底。它不仅是英伟达的超级分销商，更手握 AI 时代最深的护城河： 稀缺供给和与 OpenAI、微软的深度绑定。 ③ CoreWeave 的终局会是下一个亚马逊，还是当年的思科泡沫？市场在狂热，但逻辑需冷峻。 投资 Neocloud，本质是博弈算力的"供需周期"。它既有成为 AI 时代"超级公用事业公司" 的潜 力，也面临着高杠杆带来的生死考验。 RockFlow 本文共3192字， 阅读需约11分钟 2025 年 3 月，当 CoreWeave (CRWV) 敲响 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the anticipated launch of Google's Gemini 3.0, which is expected to catalyze sentiment around AI computing power. The performance improvements observed during testing indicate significant advancements in commercializing large models [2][13]. - Gemini 3.0 has demonstrated impressive capabilities in various fields such as web front-end design, operating system UI simulation, and music creation, showcasing a hundredfold increase in monthly token processing from 9.7 trillion to over 1,000 trillion [3][13]. - The deployment of TPUv7 in 2026 is projected to significantly boost demand for high-end infrastructure components like PCB and optical modules, driven by the performance enhancements of the latest TPU generation [3][13]. Group 2 - The report discusses the acquisition of Kuixin Technology by Heshun Petroleum, which aims to control 51% of the company. Kuixin is positioned as a leading player in the domestic communication interface IP market, with projected revenues of 193 million and 110 million yuan for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [4][14]. - Kuixin Technology's product offerings include various protocol interface IPs, and it is one of the few companies providing complete chiplet solutions in China. The acquisition is expected to ignite investment sentiment in the domestic communication interface IP sector [4][14]. - The global interface IP market is projected to reach $2.37 billion in 2024, with a 28% share of the overall IP market, benefiting from the growth in AI computing power [4][14]. Group 3 - The report identifies several key trends in the domestic AI chip market, including the shift towards chiplet architectures to manage heat and yield issues, and the importance of UCIe as the primary communication protocol for chiplets [5][15]. - The decoupling of domestic HBM particles from imported HBM IP is highlighted as a strategy to enhance performance and reduce manufacturing costs, facilitating the independent packaging of HBM modules [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the necessity of communication interface IP as a foundational technology for the growth of domestic AI chips, with significant market opportunities arising from increased chip shipments and domestic substitution rates [17]. Group 4 - The overall market performance for the week of November 10-14, 2025, showed declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% and the Shenwan Communication Index down 4.77% [8][18]. - Among the sectors, liquid cooling and operators showed slight gains, while several individual stocks experienced significant fluctuations, with Cambridge Technology and Beishida gaining while New Yisheng and Yuanjie Technology faced notable declines [8][32].