每日市场观察 2025 年 9 月 25 日 【今日关注】 周三市场收涨，成交额 2.35 万亿，比上一交易日减少约 1700 亿。除 银行、煤炭、通信小幅下挫，其余行业全部上涨，电力设备、电子、 计算机、传媒等行业涨幅居前。 盘面解读 周三指数虽然有所低开，但全天向上的动力较为强劲，创业板和科创 板指数继续升高，市场做多的能量较为充沛。半导体领涨市场，其大 幅上涨的意义不仅在于板块本身，而是为整体市场再次注入强信心。 半导体板块体量巨大，目前已暂时接替通信算力板块成为统领整个市 场的主导力量。在前一阶段市场处于分化的状态当中，除半导体、新 能源外，其他板块多数回调，而周三近乎普涨之后，不少经历调整的 板块开始出现了见底回隐的技术信号。需要注意的一个细节是，前期 涨幅巨大的算力板块虽有回调，但并未出现恶性杀跌，整体调整幅度 不大，也表明整体市场情绪也处于较为稳定的状态。 机会挖掘 半导体板块的机会仍然值得重视。盘中虽然有所回落，且有其他多个 板块上涨，但从盘面观察，主流资金并未脱离半导体板块，其他板块 的上涨或更多缘于暂时规避半导体较大的涨幅，而采取的低位补涨措 施。在信息层面，近期关于国产半导体核心设备的信 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The domestic computing chip industry is experiencing a long-term investment opportunity driven by domestic substitution and market demand growth, with companies like Cambricon, Huawei, and Haiguang showing development potential alongside self-developed ASICs from major firms [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Growth and Financial Performance**: - Moer Thread's IPO raised 8 billion, with projected revenues of 438 million in 2024, while Muxi raised 4 billion with projected revenues of 743 million in 2024. Both companies have high gross margins despite negative net profits due to upfront semiconductor design and R&D costs [1][3][4] - **Competitive Positioning**: - Moer Thread's latest Pinghu architecture chip has an IP 32 computing power close to NVIDIA's H20, with an interconnect bandwidth of 800GB per second and memory capacity of 80GB, indicating strong competitiveness against NVIDIA's high-end chips [1][5] - **Policy Impact**: - Recent policies from the National Cyberspace Administration of China require companies like Alibaba and ByteDance to stop testing and purchasing NVIDIA's RTX PRO6,000D, indicating a push for domestic processors that have reached or surpassed NVIDIA's performance levels [1][6] - **Market Growth Projections**: - The domestic computing chip market is expected to see significant growth, with early estimates predicting a market size of 200 billion, potentially reaching 800 billion by 2027 according to NVIDIA [3][8][9] - **Supply Chain and Production Capacity**: - By 2026, domestic computing chip manufacturers are expected to scale up production significantly due to resolved supply chain issues and capacity releases, with major internet companies beginning to test and adopt domestic chips [1][7] Additional Important Insights - **Product Development and Competitiveness**: - Moer Thread has enhanced AI training and inference capabilities in its products, with significant improvements in parameters and performance, indicating a positive trend in product strength and supply chain progress [5][11] - **Market Dynamics**: - The coexistence of self-developed ASICs and traditional chip manufacturers like Huawei and Haiguang is feasible due to the large market size and low domestic penetration rates, providing ample growth opportunities [2][10] - **End-Side Computing Trends**: - Companies like Rockchip are positioned well in the end-side computing sector, with recent product launches showing better performance and price competitiveness compared to Qualcomm and NVIDIA [12][13][15] - **3D Stacking Technology**: - 3D stacking technology is becoming increasingly important for high-bandwidth hardware in model training and inference, with companies like Zhaoyi holding a strong position in this area [17]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the communication industry, suggesting a potential shift towards a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic due to technological and capital barriers [1]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a transformation driven by technology and policy support, with a shift in demand from traditional to emerging services [1][39]. - The industry is expected to enter a recovery phase in Q3 2025, with capital expenditure expansion driven by technological breakthroughs and new infrastructure initiatives [39]. - The demand for AI computing power, accelerated commercialization of 5G-A, breakthroughs in 6G technology, and the rise of the "low-altitude economy" are key factors driving the industry's upgrade [1][39]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The report highlights the growth in the optical communication sector, particularly in high-speed optical modules, driven by AI computing demand and increased capital expenditure from global cloud service providers [3][10]. - The domestic penetration rate of traditional optical fiber and cable is nearing saturation, prompting companies to accelerate international expansion [5][4]. - The communication equipment integration market is recovering, with the Asia-Pacific region leading in 5G system integration and services [6]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - The demand for optical modules, especially high-speed products for data centers, is robust, with a projected shipment increase from 6.4 million units in 2023 to over 31.9 million units by 2025 [3]. - The communication equipment market is experiencing strong growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 18.9% in Q2 2025, despite a contraction in 5G investment [11]. - The telecommunications service sector is seeing a shift towards emerging businesses, with significant growth in AI computing and quantum communication services [15][30]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The communication industry is characterized by a high degree of market concentration, particularly among leading companies in optical communication and equipment integration [24][27]. - The report notes that traditional communication services are facing saturation, with new business areas becoming the core of competitive differentiation [28]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for technological advancements, particularly in AI, 6G, and satellite communication [31][32]. - Significant R&D investments are being directed towards AI and 6G technologies, with major companies like China Mobile leading initiatives in these areas [34]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - The communication industry is witnessing a favorable credit environment, with a total bond issuance of 17.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, primarily from leading companies [36][37]. - The report indicates that the dual barriers of technology and capital for leading firms will become more pronounced, reinforcing the trend towards market consolidation [36]. Cycle Development Outlook - The communication industry is expected to see revenue and profit growth, with cash flow recovery anticipated in Q3 2025 [38]. - The report forecasts a transition to an expansion phase driven by new infrastructure investments and a focus on domestic demand [39]. Key Segment Development Trends - The optical communication sector is evolving towards ultra-high-speed, intelligent, and integrated solutions, supporting the AI computing network [40]. - The commercialization of 5G-A and advancements in 6G technology are expected to enhance the capabilities of communication equipment integrators [41]. - Telecommunications services are anticipated to diversify, with new opportunities arising from the low-altitude economy and satellite internet developments [42].

Macro Strategy - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with guidance indicating two more cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations [1][17] - Powell's statements on employment and inflation were consistent with the August Jackson Hole meeting, lacking significant dovish information, leading to volatile movements in major asset classes [1][17] - The focus is shifting towards the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential political pressures influencing future rate cuts and increasing dollar credit risks [1][17] Fixed Income - The convertible bond market experienced fluctuations, with high-priced bonds outperforming mid and low-priced ones, indicating a highly structured opportunity landscape driven by the current equity market [2][19] - The China convertible bond index has risen over 30% since its low in August 2024, with a corresponding increase in the premium rate of about 8-12 percentage points [2][19] - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 20.052 billion yuan this week, a significant increase from the previous week, indicating strong market interest [4][23] Industry Insights - In the semiconductor equipment sector, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the development of domestic computing power chips [12] - The oil service equipment industry is poised to gain from Saudi Aramco's plan to initiate 85 major projects over the next three years, with specific recommendations for companies like Jereh and Neway [13] - The precision manufacturing sector, particularly in 3C electronics, is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Fuliwang expected to see significant profit increases from 2025 to 2027 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Huawei's innovative "super node" architecture, which aims to redefine large-scale effective computing power in AI by addressing the limitations of traditional server architectures and enhancing interconnectivity through the self-developed UnifiedBus protocol [3][4][12]. Group 1: Super Node Architecture - The super node architecture represents a deep restructuring of computing system architecture, moving from a "stacked" model to a "fused" model that allows multiple machines to function as a single device [4][9]. - This architecture aims to eliminate the communication bottlenecks inherent in traditional server setups, where data exchange between servers can lead to significant delays and inefficiencies [5][11]. - Huawei's super node can reduce communication latency to the nanosecond level, significantly improving cluster utilization and lowering communication costs, with the goal of achieving linear scalability of effective computing power [11][12]. Group 2: Product Offerings - Huawei introduced the Atlas 950 SuperPoD and Atlas 960 SuperPoD, which support 8192 and 15488 Ascend cards respectively, showcasing superior performance in key metrics such as card scale, total computing power, memory capacity, and interconnect bandwidth [17][20]. - The Atlas 850, an enterprise-grade air-cooled AI super node server, lowers the barrier for enterprises to adopt super node architecture without requiring complex liquid cooling modifications [21]. - The TaiShan 950 SuperPoD extends the super node architecture to general computing, offering ultra-low latency and memory pooling capabilities beneficial for databases and big data applications [25]. Group 3: Ecosystem Strategy - Huawei emphasizes an ecosystem strategy of "hardware openness and software open-source," encouraging industry partners to engage in secondary development and enrich product offerings based on the UnifiedBus protocol [26][28]. - The company aims to build a unified, scalable computing foundation that provides a consistent, high-performance computing experience across various environments, from cloud to enterprise [28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" investment rating [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic AI computing power is expected to continue improving, suggesting a focus on domestic AI computing-related stocks [5]. Summary by Sections - **Product Roadmap**: Huawei plans to launch the new Ascend 950PR chip in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 970 chip in Q4 2028. The world's strongest super node, Atlas 950 SuperPoD, is expected to be launched in Q4 2025 [4][7]. - **Performance Metrics**: The Ascend 970 chip will have a computing power of 4 PFLOPS (FP8) / 8 PFLOPS (FP4) and a memory capacity of 288 GB with a bandwidth of 14.4 TB/s. In comparison, NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra GB300 has a computing power of 15 PFLOPS (FP4) [7]. - **Deployment and Client Base**: As of September 18, 2025, CloudMatrix has deployed over 300 super nodes, serving more than 20 clients [7]. - **Open Hardware and Software**: Huawei is committed to open hardware and software, allowing the industry to develop related products based on its technology specifications. The operating system components will be open-sourced, enabling users to integrate and maintain their versions [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.358 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 29.93 million yuan, up 18.23% year-on-year [1]. - The company is positioned to leverage opportunities in the recovering global semiconductor industry, driven by demand for AI computing, storage chips, and automotive electronics [2]. - The company has established a competitive advantage in AI edge computing, automotive electronics, and sensor fields, supported by a stable and efficient business model [2]. - The company has strengthened its core technological capabilities through collaboration with the National Intelligent Sensor Innovation Center and has initiated the construction of an integrated sensing and computing ecosystem [3]. - The company has a solid core competitiveness, supported by high-quality IC supplier resources and a well-known domestic customer base, which enhances its market expansion capabilities [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects revenues of 2.817 billion yuan, 3.155 billion yuan, and 3.572 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company has been adjusted downwards to 0.755 billion yuan, 1.143 billion yuan, and 1.682 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including revenue growth rates of 8.52%, 12.00%, and 13.20% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9].

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

Summary of Dazhu CNC Conference Call Company Overview - Dazhu CNC is a leading supplier of PCB production equipment in China, particularly dominant in the mechanical drilling sector, and is actively expanding its full industry chain layout, including exposure, testing, and lamination processes [2][3][4] - The company is 84% owned by Dazhu Laser, indicating a stable shareholding structure [2][3] Industry Context - Dazhu CNC's performance is closely tied to the PCB industry's cyclical nature, with a peak in 2021 followed by profit pressure in 2022-2023 due to industry downturns [2][5] - Starting in 2024, the company is expected to benefit from increased demand for AI computing power and high-density interconnect (HDI) boards, leading to a significant recovery in net profit margins [2][5][6] Key Insights - The PCB industry is entering a new growth cycle driven by the demand for high-end HDI boards, particularly from AI computing servers [2][6] - Domestic PCB manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity to meet this demand, with Dazhu CNC positioned to benefit significantly from this expansion [2][6][8] - High-end HDI boards require more advanced drilling processes, leading to increased demand for drilling equipment, which Dazhu CNC is well-equipped to fulfill due to its technological advantages [2][6][10] Financial Performance - For the period from January to August 2025, Dazhu CNC secured nearly 4.5 billion yuan in orders, with 1 billion yuan in orders in July and August alone, indicating a high industry demand [4][20] - Revenue is projected to reach 6 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, and a potential market capitalization of 80 billion yuan [4][21] Competitive Landscape - Dazhu CNC is recognized as a top player in the mechanical drilling equipment market, with its products gaining traction due to their performance and cost-effectiveness [14][15] - The company has made significant progress in the CCD back drilling sector, achieving yield rates comparable to German competitors while maintaining a price advantage [15][18] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in demand for high-end HDI boards driven by AI computing needs, with a forecasted increase in orders and revenue [7][8][21] - Dazhu CNC's market position is strengthened by its comprehensive product offerings across the PCB production process, including exposure, lamination, and testing equipment [18][21] Additional Considerations - The PCB industry is characterized by a three-year cyclical investment period, currently in its early stages, suggesting significant growth potential for Dazhu CNC [21] - The company is well-positioned to capture market share through its full industry chain layout and competitive product offerings, indicating a strong future growth trajectory [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [38] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI infrastructure, particularly with the launch of the Qwen3-Next model by Alibaba, which marks a new era of efficient and low-energy consumption in large models [13][15] - The establishment of the 300P AI computing center in Ordos signals a strong commitment to enhancing AI capabilities and infrastructure [11][12] - Oracle's cloud computing infrastructure business has shown remarkable growth, with a notable contract signed with OpenAI worth $300 billion, indicating a robust demand for AI computing power [17][18] - Neuralink is accelerating its global trials for brain-machine interfaces, showcasing the potential for commercial applications in medical technology [19][21] Summary by Sections AI Infrastructure Development - The Ordos AI computing center project has a total investment of 210 million yuan, with 120 Huawei Ascend 910C servers to support AI model training and inference [11][12] - The Qwen3-Next model features significant innovations, including a 90% reduction in training costs compared to its predecessor and a tenfold increase in inference efficiency [13][15] Cloud Computing Sector - Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion, a 55% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI capabilities [16][18] - The $300 billion contract with OpenAI is set to begin in 2027, highlighting the increasing need for AI computing resources [17][18] Brain-Machine Interface Technology - Neuralink has successfully implanted its N1 chip in 12 patients, demonstrating the technology's potential to restore functions for individuals with severe disabilities [19][21] - The company aims to expand its applications to include vision restoration by 2026, indicating a broader scope for brain-machine interface technology [20][21]