证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/06） 市场处于震荡整固阶段，结构性行情将是重点——A 股市场 2026 年 2 月投资 策略报告 行业研究 关注年报业绩催化与创新药械产业链——医药生物行业 2 月投资策略展望 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.06） 宏观及策略研究 晨会纪要（2026/02/06） 宏观及策略研究 市场处于震荡整固阶段，结构性行情将是重点——A 股市场 2026 年 2 月投资策略报告 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 要 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 云计算提价印证高景气，AI 应用迎来多点催化——计算机行业 2 月投资策略 展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、宏观方面 2026 年年初，出口端在结构优化、产品竞争优势以及经贸环境改善的支撑下将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the North Exchange has shown a positive trend, with the North 50 Index increasing by 4.22% during the period from January 12 to January 23, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.19% [4][10]. - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange's constituent stocks is 3.22 billion [4][10]. - The daily average trading volume reached 334.1 billion, representing a 41.49% increase compared to the previous period [4][12]. - The top five performing sectors during this period were non-ferrous metals, building materials, chemicals, steel, and electronics, with increases of 9.24%, 8.49%, 8.25%, 5.26%, and 5.22% respectively [4][14]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of January 23, 2026, there are 291 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 3.22 billion [4][10]. - The North 50 Index closed at 1588.66 points, with a trading volume of 334.1 billion and a turnover rate of 6.79% [4][12]. New Stocks in the North Exchange - During the period from January 12 to January 23, 2026, three new stocks were issued: Koma Materials, Aishalen, and Guoliang New Materials [23]. Key News from the North Exchange - On January 14, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the financing margin ratio, increasing the minimum margin from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts [6][26]. Investment Strategy for the North Exchange - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for potential investment opportunities in 2026 [6][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The overall performance of the North Exchange has shown a positive trend, with the North 50 Index increasing by 4.22% during the period from January 12 to January 23, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.19% [4][10] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange's constituent stocks is 3.22 billion [10] - The daily average trading volume reached 334.1 billion, representing a 41.49% increase compared to the previous period [12] Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of January 23, 2026, there are 291 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 3.22 billion [10] - The North 50 Index closed at 1588.66 points, with a trading volume increase and a daily turnover rate of 6.79% [12] Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors in the North Exchange during the reporting period are Non-ferrous Metals (9.24%), Building Materials (8.49%), Chemicals (8.25%), Steel (5.26%), and Electronics (5.22%) [14] Individual Stock Performance - Out of 288 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 216 stocks increased in value, 71 decreased, and 1 remained flat, resulting in a 75% increase ratio [16] New Stocks in the Period - During the reporting period, three new stocks were issued, and several companies updated their review status, indicating ongoing market activity [5][23] Key News - On January 14, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the financing margin ratio, increasing the minimum margin from 80% to 100% [26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as Data Centers, Robotics, Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Military Information Technology for potential investment opportunities in 2026 [27]

2026 年 02 月 04 日 AI 算力驱动太空光伏浪潮，超薄硅片切割设备 迎放量机遇 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：何鹏程 | S1050525070002 | | --- | --- | | hepc@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：庄宇 | S1050525120003 | | zhuangyu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：尤少炜 | S1050525030002 | | yousw@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：石俊烨 | S1050125060011 | | shijy@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 81.11 | | 总市值（亿元） | 167 | | 总股本（百万股） | 205 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 146 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.63-81.11 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 258.1 | 市场表现 -100 0 100 200 300 400 (%) 宇晶股份 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研 ...

看好光伏设备出海&太空算力机会；推荐国 内销售旺季来临的工程机械 增持（维持） 机械设备行业跟踪周报 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【光伏设备】SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫星，设备商有望充分受益于海外地面+太空光 伏双重机遇 1 月 30 日，SpaceX 向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）提交了一项新申请，内容为"一个 拥有前所未有的计算能力的卫星星座，可为先进的 AI 模型及其相关应用提供支持"。 这一卫星系统将最多包含 100 万颗卫星，主要通过新一代重型运载火箭"星舰"发射， 建立一个环绕地球的轨道数据中心网络。 1、太空：全球卫星发射数量指数级增长，硅基 HJT 是最优太空光伏方案。中国无线电 创新院向国际电信联盟申请 20 万颗低轨轨道权 ...

Macro Strategy - The IPCA model shows better application effects in the domestic credit bond market compared to the US market, with a Sharpe ratio consistently above 1.45 and above 2.2 from May to December 2025 [1][13] - The strategy exhibits asymmetric risk/reward characteristics, with 75% of sample dates showing positive excess credit returns, and a maximum excess return of 0.13% from January 2024 to December 2025 [1][13] - The practical operability of the strategy is strong, allowing for investment in bonds with similar risk characteristics even when specific bonds are not available in the secondary market [1][13] Fixed Income Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of key industries, including new pillar industries, future industries, traditional industry upgrades, infrastructure construction, green transformation, and consumer upgrades, which are expected to receive policy support and financing breakthroughs [2][14] - A total of 1,098 bond-issuing entities align with the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a total bond scale of approximately 10.8 trillion yuan, primarily rated AAA and concentrated in East and North China [2][14] - The participation of bond-issuing entities in the six key industries shows significant differentiation, with infrastructure and new pillar industries leading in both the number of issuers and bond scale [2][14] Industry Insights - The public utility sector is expected to benefit from deepened electricity reforms, with recommendations to focus on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and the valuation of photovoltaic and charging pile assets [7] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to experience a spring consumption surge, particularly in snacks, dining, and seasonal beverages, with a positive outlook for Q1 2026 due to favorable market conditions [7] - Companies like KaiGe Precision Machinery and HeMai Co. are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing and energy storage, with projected profit growth in the coming years [9][10]

Group 1: Strategic Goals and Development Directions - The core of the "14th Five-Year Plan" strategy is the transformation from a "global supply chain service platform" to a "technology-driven industrial ecosystem organizer" [2] - The company aims to become a key enabling platform for the country's new productive forces during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Storage Chip Layout - The full-chain layout in the storage chip sector includes "design - controller - module - distribution," aimed at enhancing industry chain control and capturing value [3] - The company has invested in key areas such as SSD controllers and module design to respond quickly to market changes and provide reliable solutions [3] Group 3: Capital Operations - Capital operations are divided into "bringing in" and "going out," focusing on investments and mergers in high-quality upstream and downstream enterprises, particularly in semiconductor and AI computing sectors [4] - The "going out" strategy involves subsidiaries seeking financing or being acquired to provide returns to shareholders [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - "Invested on the chain" refers to the company participating in financing of enterprises while providing supply chain services, fostering deep cooperation [5] - "On-chain investment" involves investing in financing-needing companies among existing partners, such as Lianyun Technology and Xinghuo Semiconductor [5] Group 5: Core Value in Storage Business - The core value in the storage chain is a spiral increase in "scale and influence," with large-scale distribution as the foundation and strategic investments to gain technical authority [5][6] - The balance between "cooperation" and "independence" is achieved through self-sufficiency in key areas while collaborating widely in general products and market channels [6] Group 6: AI Computing and Global Expansion - AI computing business supports manufacturing and brand enterprises in their global expansion, creating a feedback loop that enhances both sectors [6] - The company accumulates valuable global experience and customer networks during the expansion process, which informs the development of products tailored to overseas markets [6] Group 7: Future Focus on Storage - The company plans to focus more resources on the storage sector as demand increases with advancements in AI technology and user data growth [6]

Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Shenghong Technology achieved a net profit of 3.245 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 324.38%[4] - In Q3 2025, the net profit was 1.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 260.52%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.2 billion yuan, marking a decline of 129.62 percentage points[4] Asset Expansion - The construction in progress surged from 257 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 3.548 billion yuan, an increase of 1283.08%, indicating aggressive capacity expansion to meet global demand for high-layer PCBs and advanced HDIs[6] - Shenghong Technology raised 1.876 billion yuan through a stock issuance, with 1.326 billion yuan allocated for AI HDI projects in Vietnam and high-layer PCB projects in Thailand, expected to contribute an additional 3.6 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 41.19% of the 2024 PCB hardware revenue[6] Market Position and Valuation - As of October 29, 2023, Shenghong Technology's stock price was 339 yuan, with a market capitalization of 295.048 billion yuan, significantly higher than competitors like Huadian Co. (152.756 billion yuan) and Shennan Circuit (151.884 billion yuan)[9] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI high-end PCB sector, benefiting from a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.2% in the PCB industry from 2024 to 2029[9] Future Growth Prospects - Production capacity is expected to be released starting in Q4 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth anticipated as NVIDIA's B300 product ramps up production[8] - Shenghong Technology's continuous growth is expected to contribute positively to local tax revenues, with a projected profit of 3.743 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 346.52%[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The overall market performance of the North Exchange shows a significant increase, with the North 50 Index rising by 7.49% during the period from January 5 to January 16, 2026, closing at 1548.33 points. In comparison, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech 50 indices increased by 2.20%, 4.93%, and 12.64%, respectively [4][10] - The average market capitalization of the 288 constituent stocks in the North Exchange is 32.69 billion yuan, with a total market value of 941.449 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 573.460 billion yuan [1][4] - The daily average trading volume during this period reached 331.61 billion yuan, representing a 67.96% increase compared to the previous period [4][12] Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of January 16, 2026, the North Exchange has 288 listed companies, with an average market capitalization of 32.69 billion yuan. The North 50 Index increased by 7.49% during the specified period [4][10] - The daily average trading volume was 331.61 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.62%, which is an increase of 2.30 percentage points from the previous period [12][13] North Exchange Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors in the North Exchange during this period were Media (45.09%), Oil and Petrochemicals (22.23%), Non-ferrous Metals (16.87%), Automotive (14.64%), and Communications (13.47%) [4][15] North Exchange New Stocks - Three new stocks were issued during this period: Kema Materials (920086.BJ), Aisheren (920050.BJ), and Guoliang New Materials (920076.BJ) [5][23] North Exchange Key News - On January 5, 2026, the company Guangdao Tui (920680) was officially delisted, marking the first forced delisting due to major violations since the establishment of the North Exchange [7][24] - On January 14, 2026, the financing margin ratio for investors was adjusted from 80% to 100%, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors' rights [7][24] North Exchange Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors expected to perform well in 2026, including Data Centers, Robotics, Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Military Information Technology [7][26]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AI hardware sector, highlighting strong demand for AI computing power and significant capital expenditure growth from TSMC in 2026 [5][19]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3.3%, with a gross margin of 62.3% and an adjusted net profit of $16.29 billion, surpassing expectations by 10.4% [2][11]. - The HPC segment remains the core growth driver for TSMC, accounting for 55% of Q4 revenue and showing a 48% year-over-year growth, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][19]. - The SELF DRIVE Act is poised to significantly increase the annual exemption limit for autonomous vehicles from 2,500 to 90,000 units per manufacturer, facilitating large-scale deployment of Level 4 autonomous vehicles [4][17]. - AMD and Intel's server CPU inventories are reportedly sold out, with a projected price increase of up to 15% due to high demand from hyperscale cloud providers [4][18]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue was $33.7 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and an adjusted net profit of $16.29 billion, all exceeding market expectations [2][11]. - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue is projected at $122.56 billion, with a gross margin of 59.9% and an adjusted net profit growth of 552.7% [2][11]. - The company plans a capital expenditure of $52-56 billion for 2026, a significant increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, with expected revenue growth of nearly 30% year-over-year [12][19]. AI Hardware Demand - The report emphasizes strong and certain demand for AI computing power, with TSMC's HPC business expected to account for 58% of total revenue in 2025, growing at 48% year-over-year [5][19]. - The introduction of Anthropic's Cowork feature marks a significant advancement in AI applications, allowing for more autonomous task management and collaboration [3][14]. Autonomous Vehicle Regulations - The SELF DRIVE Act aims to enhance the regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles, proposing to raise the exemption limit for manufacturers significantly, which could accelerate the deployment of autonomous vehicle technology [4][17]. - The bipartisan support for the SELF DRIVE Act indicates a strong political will to advance autonomous vehicle technology in the U.S. [4][17]. Server CPU Market - The server CPU market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with AMD and Intel's inventories reportedly sold out, leading to anticipated price increases of up to 15% [4][18]. - The demand surge is primarily driven by hyperscale cloud providers upgrading their server architectures [4][18].