Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, ranking among the top major economies globally [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 21,840 yuan, also reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable yet decreasing trend in domestic prices [1] Real Estate Market Changes - The real estate market continued to experience a decline in both volume and price, with new residential sales area down by 3.5% and sales value down by 5.5% in the first half of 2025 [5] - A significant change in housing prices is expected, with a divergence in price trends across different cities; cities with previously larger declines may see a slowdown, while major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price drops [5] - The pre-sale system for commercial housing is anticipated to be gradually abolished, with an increase in the proportion of completed homes for sale, allowing buyers to view properties before purchasing [7] - The government plans to accelerate the market entry of affordable housing, aiming to provide 6 million units over the next five years, which will likely reduce costs for buyers and exert downward pressure on market prices [7] Automotive Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with many brands reducing prices by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for mid-range vehicles and up to 90,000 yuan for luxury cars [9] - Factors contributing to this price reduction include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and a decline in demand due to reduced middle-class incomes [9] Banking and Savings Landscape - Concerns are rising that holding cash may become less valuable due to excessive money supply, with M2 reaching 326 trillion yuan, over twice the GDP of 2024 [11] - Despite a slight decline in CPI, the economy is currently experiencing deflation rather than inflation, as excess money is not circulating into the economy [11] - Although deposit rates have fallen to historic lows, further declines are expected to be limited, as extremely low rates may lead to significant withdrawals from banks, increasing financing difficulties [13]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月27日 宏观经济宏观周报 本周高频指标加速回升，投资和房地产表现较优 主要结论：高频指标加速回升，投资和房地产表现较优。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 25 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续回升。从分项来看，本周房地产、投资领域景气有所回升，消费 领域景气有所回落，本周房地产、投资领域表现相对较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.3，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济 增长动能环比加速上行。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 8 月 2 日所在 周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 相关研究报告 《政府债周报-国债净融资边际放缓》 ——2025-07-25 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格下跌。预计 7 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 0.5%， 非食品价格环比约为 0.5%，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.5%，CPI 同比持平上月的 0.1%。 （2）6 月上旬流通 ...

日本7月东京CPI月率 0.2%，前值0%。 ...

Market Influence - Over a decade ago, Chinese economic indicators held little sway in overseas investment decisions, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) being the primary exception [1] - Currently, the focus on China's economic data, including CPI, M2, imports/exports, and unemployment rate, is second only to that of the United States [1]

俄罗斯7月21日当周CPI周环比下降0.05%，2025年迄今累计上升4.56%。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while it decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a persistent low growth due to insufficient consumer demand [2][9] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, up 0.1 percentage points from May, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer demand [2][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [6][9] - The PPI for the first half of 2025 decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period in 2024, influenced by high base effects and external pressures [6][7] - The decline in industrial product prices is attributed to insufficient demand, exacerbated by external environmental pressures and domestic economic structural adjustments [6][7][9] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with a notable decline in pork prices due to high base effects from the previous year, while other food prices showed an upward trend [3][4] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery but still remaining in a low growth range, primarily due to oversupply in the market [4][5] - Service prices saw the largest year-on-year increase of 8.1%, reflecting a diverse performance across different non-food categories [5][9]

智通财经7月23日电，新加坡6月份CPI同比增长0.8%，预估0.9%；6月份核心CPI同比增长0.6%，预估 0.7%。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a turnaround from the previous month’s decline of 0.1%[3] - The core CPI for the first half of the year rose by 0.5% month-on-month, indicating a reduction in downward price pressure[6] - The year-on-year CPI in June ended a four-month streak of negative growth, primarily due to a significant narrowing of the fresh vegetable price decline from -8.3% to -0.4%[22] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, continuing its negative growth trend, with a cumulative decline of 1.9% for the first half of the year[32] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 3.6%, with the decline accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to May[36] - Contributing factors to the PPI decline include seasonal factors and weak external demand, particularly affecting industries like steel and cement[32] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The GDP deflator index is expected to further decline to around -1.4% in Q3, with a potential recovery to -0.9% in Q4 as PPI declines narrow and CPI rebounds[4] - The overall economic stability is contingent on policy support, with the need for stimulus measures to boost internal demand still evident[4] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings and disturbances in overseas markets, which could impact economic recovery[5]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

变局中的中国经济：二季度经济数据，从城市工作会议和 反内卷政策看地产和通胀 20250720 摘要 2025 年上半年建筑业增速转负至-0.6%，拖累第二产业 GDP 增长，房 地产投资同比下降 12.9%，基建投资同比下降 4.6%。房地产市场核心 城市新房销售较好，但次新房和老破大面临估值压力，老破小被视为深 度价值股。 中央城市工作会议强调城市更新，摒弃依赖债务驱动和土地财政的模式， 聚焦智能、智慧、韧性和宜居的城市发展，从棚户区改造转向注重内涵 发展的城市更新模式。 2025 年上半年基建投资下滑，6 月单月同比下降 4.6%，主要归因于专 项债资金用途变化，用于新开工项目建设的比例下降，化债占比上升， 部分地方政府面临公开债偿还压力。 雅砻江水电工程是中国"十五五"规划中的重要投资项目，预计耗资 1.2 万亿元人民币，对未来数年的中国基建投资形成持续稳定保障，同 时具有重要的地缘政治意义。 Q&A 2025 年第二季度中国 GDP 增速如何？其背后的结构性因素有哪些？ 2025 年第二季度中国 GDP 增速为 5.2%，基本符合市场预期。然而，尽管 6 月份工业增加值表现良好，二季度整体工业增加值也 ...