Group 1 - The overall price level in China is relatively low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to remain stable in 2025, showing minor monthly fluctuations [1] - CPI has structural characteristics, with significant impacts from declining food and energy prices; food prices decreased by 1.5% in the previous year, affecting CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points, while energy prices fell by 3.3%, contributing another 0.25 percentage points to the decline [1] - The current low CPI is influenced by complex domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, as well as the country's development stage, with traditional growth drivers slowing down [1] Group 2 - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are showing results, with core CPI experiencing a mild recovery; in 2025, the core CPI excluding food and energy is projected to rise by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - In December, the core CPI rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy increasing by 1.1% [2] - Specific price increases include home appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, while the decline in fuel and new energy vehicles has narrowed significantly [2] Group 3 - Favorable factors for a moderate CPI recovery are accumulating, with effective implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives and coordinated fiscal and financial policies expected to gradually expand consumer demand [3] - In December, CPI increased by 0.8%, the highest since March 2023, driven by increased food consumption during the New Year holiday and active service consumption [3] - Continued industry self-regulation and capacity management are anticipated to support price recovery, with a focus on enhancing product standards and quality [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of asset prices in key cities due to the positive shift in CPI and the continuous decline in risk-free interest rates, indicating a transition from a "negative outlook" to a "neutral" stance for certain assets in major cities [1]. Summary by Sections Rental Yield and CPI - The past residential rental yield was 1.5%, which, when considering CPI, is not low. The market needs to differentiate between actual and nominal yields. Historically adjusted nominal rental yields are effective indicators. The traditional calculation of rental yield using "nominal rent / nominal house price" has comparability issues. The adjusted nominal yield, which includes potential inflation, is a more reasonable metric. Under high inflation, the nominal rental yield of 1.5% in first-tier cities is equivalent to an international nominal yield of 3.5% [2]. Rental Yield Trends in Major Cities - In first-tier cities, the rental yield has increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2025. However, due to previous deflation, the "rental yield + CPI" has decreased from 4.5% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2025, which is below mortgage rates but slightly above risk-free rates. With CPI turning positive in some first-tier cities by Q4 2025, asset prices are expected to shift from a "negative outlook" to "neutral" [3]. Second-Tier Cities Potential - The "rental yield + CPI" in second-tier cities shows potential for recovery, with data indicating a rise from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025. This is an improvement compared to the current 1.8% yield on ten-year government bonds. Cities like Hefei and Xi'an are projected to see increases in their rental yield + CPI to 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively, by 2025 [4]. Market Confidence and Pricing Trends - There is an improvement in home-buying confidence, with 16% of residents expressing stronger intent to purchase homes, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. However, the proportion of declining listing prices has risen to 19%, indicating a weakening in the second-hand housing market. The article suggests monitoring CPI trends and regulatory guidance on price expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent data on prices indicates positive signals for the economy, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a narrowing year-on-year decline and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching a three-year high, suggesting a potential recovery in industrial production and consumer demand [1][3]. Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating the effectiveness of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [3]. - The CPI in December 2025 rose to 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level in nearly three years [1]. Consumer Behavior - Final consumption expenditure contributed over 50% to economic growth in 2025, with "self-indulgent consumption" rising, as service retail sales grew by 5.5%, outpacing goods retail sales by 1.7 percentage points [1][9]. - The growth in per capita consumption expenditure was still slower than the growth in per capita disposable income, indicating a need for improved conversion of income into consumption [10]. Industrial Production - The recent month-on-month increase in PPI suggests a recovery in industrial production demand, although the sustainability of this trend remains to be observed [3]. - The high-tech manufacturing sector accounted for 17.1% of the value added in large-scale industries, indicating a long-term trend towards high-tech manufacturing leading industrial development [6]. Policy Recommendations - To maintain the recovery of PPI, it is crucial to expand consumer demand and increase residents' income, especially during the upcoming traditional sales season [4]. - Policies should focus on enhancing consumer rights protection, creating consumption hotspots, and providing direct cash subsidies to low-income groups to stimulate spending [10][11]. Future Outlook - The rise of "self-indulgent consumption" presents a significant growth opportunity, particularly in sectors like health and wellness, which could drive future economic expansion [9]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is currently limited, as a significant amount of money is not effectively translating into actual demand, highlighting the need for stabilizing expectations in economic work [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].

1月19日，国新办召开新闻发布会，介绍2025年国民经济运行情况。 最近一段时期，多个指向物价方面的数据展现出积极信号。比如在2025年12月，工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比降幅收窄至1.9%，环比连续3个 月上涨；当月居民消费价格（CPI）同比回升至0.8%，创近三年以来的新高。 这些积极信号背后的动因是什么？要让PPI保持修复态势并最终实现回正，还需要积累哪些有利条件？ 从影响物价的需求层面看，一方面2025年最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率超过五成，"悦己消费"兴起，服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，快于商品零 售额1.7个百分点，且近几个月以来增速逐月加快。但在另一方面，去年人均消费支出增速仍慢于人均可支配收入增速。 服务零售额占整体零售额的比重上升是短期现象，还是将长期延续？要将收入转化为消费，需要怎么做？ 供给方面，2025年，高技术制造业对工业发展起到引领作用。在筑牢制造业底座的过程中，有哪些环节需要加强？ 政策层面，2026年以旧换新政策继续实施。如何优化以旧换新政策？ 围绕上述话题，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）对洪略全球智库理事长、中国政策科学研究会经济政策委员会副主任徐洪才展开深度专 ...

2025年，各地区各部门深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，消费领域价 格总体平稳，核心CPI涨幅扩大，生产领域价格低位回升。 一、消费领域价格总体平稳向好 CPI全年同比持平，月度波动回升。2025年，国内消费市场运行总体平稳，逐步向好。受春节错月影 响，1月份、2月份CPI同比波动较大，1月份上涨0.5%，2月份下降0.7%。3月至7月份，运行总体平稳， CPI同比涨跌幅在-0.1%至0.1%。8月份、9月份，受上年同期对比基数走高等因素影响，CPI同比降幅有 所扩大。10月份起，随着各项扩内需促消费政策加力实施，消费需求持续恢复，CPI同比由负转正并持 续回升。 （文章来源：经济日报） 二、生产领域价格总体低位回升 PPI全年为下降，下半年呈现同比降幅收窄态势。2025年，PPI同比下降2.6%，降幅比上半年和前三季度 均收窄0.2个百分点。8月份以来，随着全国统一大市场建设纵深推进和新兴行业的快速发展，PPI环比 止降，10月份起连续3个月上涨；同比降幅收窄至12月份的1.9%，为2024年9月份以来的最小降幅。 国内市场竞争秩序优化带动部分行业价格低位回升。重点行业产能治理、 ...

每经AI快讯，1月19日消息，加拿大12月CPI同比增长2.4%，预期增长2.2%；12月CPI环比下降0.2%，预 期下降0.3%。 ...

US Macro - The CPI rose by 0.3% in December, meeting expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, unchanged from November. The core CPI increased by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [6][28] - The overall CPI increase was primarily driven by food prices, which rose by 0.7% in December, marking the largest increase since 2022. Energy prices also saw a slight increase, but gasoline and fuel prices declined [6][8] - The US is likely at the forefront of low inflation globally, with core inflation remaining below the Fed's 2% target for the second consecutive month and lower than the average in most developed markets [7][35] - Tariff-related core goods inflation has shown a clear cooling trend since peaking in September 2025, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation has passed its peak and continues to be lower than expected [7][35] - Service inflation remains dominant, with housing prices rising by 0.4% in December, the largest increase since August 2025, contributing significantly to the overall CPI [8][35] CPI and PCE Differences - The Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target is set at 2% annual growth in PCE, making it the primary benchmark for monetary policy, while CPI is more commonly referenced in short-term market reactions [30][18] - PCE has broader coverage than CPI, including government and employer-paid healthcare, which is not reflected in CPI, aligning better with GDP accounting [30][18] - The market typically focuses more on CPI due to its earlier release and historical familiarity, while the Fed uses PCE for long-term trends [21][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stability of consumer prices in 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat compared to the previous year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7%, a rise of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][2][3] - The decline in food prices, which fell by 1.5% due to favorable climate conditions and sufficient supply, contributed to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points [1] - Energy prices also played a significant role in lowering CPI, with a decrease of 3.3% impacting CPI by about 0.25 percentage points, influenced by international oil price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand and related policies have shown effectiveness, with the core CPI experiencing a mild recovery, rising by 0.7% in 2025, and maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [2] - Specific sectors, such as household appliances and communication tools, saw price increases of 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, while the price decline for fuel and new energy vehicles has narrowed significantly [2] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies and fiscal-financial collaboration is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The favorable factors driving a moderate recovery in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) are accumulating, with the CPI expected to remain stable in 2025, reflecting a complex macroeconomic environment and structural characteristics in pricing [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends and Influences - In 2025, China's CPI is projected to remain flat compared to the previous year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The overall price level in China has been low, with food prices decreasing by 1.5% in 2025, contributing to a 0.27 percentage point decline in CPI [1]. - Energy prices are expected to decrease by 3.3% in 2025, impacting CPI by approximately 0.25 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Support - The current low CPI is influenced by both domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, with traditional growth drivers slowing down and external pressures affecting domestic price adjustments [2]. - In December 2025, the CPI rose by 0.8%, the highest increase since March 2023, indicating a gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [2]. - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies and coordinated fiscal and financial measures are expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [2].