作为一个个人投资者，最起初给自己定下的目标也就是10%足矣，不奢望更多。在标的选择上也多以深 度价值为主，人弃我取。前两年开始，更关注公司的质地、关注公司的长期ROE，是因为我深知施洛斯 这样的频繁滚动烟蒂股赚取估值水平回归的打法，既不适合不那么勤奋的自己，也不适合这个参与者众 多、一眼便宜极少的时代。 当下更多思考的是人性在获得感充盈后能否承受失去的痛楚，自己能否承受？通俗的举例子，就是直接 获得10块钱，和先获得100块再失去90块，这两者之间感性上的差异。说实话逃离人性真的很难，即便 是一次次做思想实验，我仍然无法保证真的到那一刻自己会怎么想。而这两年的收益率确实也让我有些 惴惴不安，始终保持一颗在路上的心，stay hungry stay foolish。 我羡慕段永平每天打高尔夫的研究方法，但这个方式对于绝大部分人来说可以说是贻误终生，这不仅强 调了非常强大的商业模式和未来格局的远见，也要求了极强的择时能力，而后者是99.999%的人无论处 于自身还是外部原因都无法拥有的。 中午抽了点时间看了一下A股账户，总的来说这两年由运气导致的回报还是远超出了自己的预期。 至于会不会卖掉，我觉得三种情况各个大神 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company affirmed its full-year beer revenue growth outlook despite industry weakness observed in May and June, indicating confidence in achieving guidance [10][12] - The first quarter was described as normal, with a depletion decline similar to the previous quarter, and the company expects sequential improvement as it moves into easier comparisons [11][12] - The impact of incremental tariffs is projected to be around $20 million, with a 20 basis point hit to margins, but the company believes it can still deliver margins in line with previous guidance [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on maintaining strong brand health metrics and loyalty among consumers, particularly within the Hispanic demographic, which constitutes a significant portion of its business [19][20] - Marketing investments were higher in Q1 due to seasonality, with a focus on high-impact events to strengthen brand presence [27][28] - The introduction of new products like SunBrew and adjustments in pricing strategies are aimed at capturing market share in the high-end light beer segment [33][57] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported high single-digit share gains in the market, indicating a positive trend in brand performance despite overall market challenges [21][52] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with increased marketing activities from competitors, particularly in the high-end light beer category [25][57] - The company is seeing a consistent percentage of alcohol in consumer baskets, despite overall basket sizes shrinking due to economic concerns [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to controlling its controllables, focusing on distribution and price pack architecture to adapt to consumer spending behaviors [52][54] - There is an ongoing emphasis on innovation, with new product introductions expected to contribute significantly to growth [33] - The company is exploring opportunities for diversification in its portfolio, particularly in the non-alcoholic sector, which has gained traction since the last investor day [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation and unemployment, but expressed confidence in the brand's resilience and consumer loyalty [12][13] - The company anticipates a return to more normal consumer behavior as socioeconomic conditions improve, particularly for its Hispanic consumer base [40][41] - The rebuilding efforts following California wildfires are expected to provide a long-term tailwind, although short-term challenges remain due to macroeconomic factors [61][63] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a robust hedging policy to manage currency and commodity risks, particularly concerning the peso [47][49] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with consumers and adapting to their changing needs in the current economic climate [20][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in beer revenue growth outlook and margin guidance - Management confirmed confidence in the unchanged full-year beer revenue growth outlook, noting that the quarter was as expected despite consumer concerns [10][12] Question: Impact of socioeconomic factors on consumer behavior - Management indicated that while occasions for beer consumption have decreased, interest in beer remains strong among consumers, suggesting a potential return to normalcy [40][41] Question: Marketing strategy and competitive landscape - Management discussed increased marketing investments and the competitive landscape, emphasizing the strength of their brands and loyalty among consumers [25][27] Question: Pricing environment in beer - Management acknowledged additional price promotions in the market and indicated adjustments in their pricing strategy to capture share in the high-end light beer segment [57] Question: Rebuilding after California wildfires - Management noted that rebuilding efforts would create job opportunities and potentially boost beer consumption, with this upside factored into their guidance [61][63]

Key Takeaways CMG's digital sales made up 35.4% of Q1 revenues, driven by mobile orders and strong brand loyalty. Comparable sales fell 0.4% as macro uncertainty led to fewer transactions despite menu innovation. CMG is boosting summer marketing and hospitality efforts to counter soft in-store traffic trends.Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) continues to see impressive traction in its digital sales, which represented a healthy 35.4% of total revenues in first-quarter 2025. The brand's mobile and online platfor ...

Key Takeaways MCY's top line witnessed a 7.6% CAGR from 2020-2024, backed by higher net premiums earned and other revenues. Net investment income has surged with a 15.7% CAGR over the past five years. MCY's net premiums written are driven by rate increases and rising policy counts in California auto.Shares of Mercury General Corporation (MCY) have gained 27% in the past year, outperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s growth of 19.8%, 20.4% and 11.7%, respectively. Me ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微跌，波动不大，还在4.9星。 沪深300等大盘股波动不大，中小盘股下跌多一些。 价值风格整体上涨。 红利、价值等指数比较强势。 部分红利类品种也回到正常估值，距离低估不远。 最近市场经常风格轮动。 大盘小盘、成长价值都有发力上涨的阶段。 港股周二放假，周三恢复正常交易。 港股整体上涨，港股红利类品种领涨。 今年港股前几个月，偏成长风格的科技、医药上涨较多。 现在也轮到港股红利补涨了。 1. 上半年结束了。 主动优选和指数增强上半年都跑赢了同期的大盘指数。 其中去年指数增强更强一些，今年主动优选更强一些。 主动优选上半年上涨5%，同期沪深300指数基本没涨。 主动优选超额比较明显。 2. 主动优选策略，也有大小年。 有的时间段跑赢大盘指数比较多，有的时间段则会出现跑输。 从历史数据统计上，大约6:4的关系。 也就是60%的时间跑赢，40%的时间跑输。时间拉长后是跑赢的，例如下图。 3. 跑赢跑输的原因是啥呢？ 这跟策略底层的逻辑有关。 主动优选，主要挑选盈利能力强的股票。 比较少配置盈利能力弱的股票，几乎没有亏损股。 遇到亏损股炒作行情，就容易跑输市场。 衡量公 ...

点击注册小程序 截至2025年6月30日，沪深300上涨家数占比指标最近一个月环比上月上升，上涨家数占比指标高于60%， 市场情绪较高；从动量情绪指标走势来看，近一月快线向上、慢线向下，快线处于慢线上方，预计在未来 一段时间内将维持看多观点；从均线情绪指标来看，短期内沪深300指数处于情绪景气区间。 基金分离度跟踪： 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 市场情绪追踪： 机构调研策略跟踪： 2025年6月，公募调研选股策略和私募调研跟踪策略获取正超额收益。公募调研选股策略相对中证800获取 超额收益5.55%，私募调研跟踪策略相对中证800获取超额收益1.90%。 负面清单： 截至2025年6月30日，宽松有息负债率排名前30的股票中，中毅达、指南针、现代投资、春兴精工、奥飞 数 ...

“F1” co-star Tobias Menzies says he is drawn to anti-heroes and darker stories. “Some people think life is a comedy. I’d say life is essentially a tragedy, when seen up close.” https://t.co/MSuEn7rqdH ...

A seasonal lift for Asian equities in July may falter this year as tariff and macroeconomic concerns dampen sentiment https://t.co/lrhjgxWeJb ...

“F1” co-star Tobias Menzies says he is drawn to anti-heroes and darker stories. “Some people think life is a comedy. I’d say life is essentially a tragedy, when seen up close.” https://t.co/zSelRkdTCe ...

The ECB Forum on Central Banking – the Sintra Forum – is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal. It brings together central bank governors, academics, financial market representatives, journalists and others to exchange views on current policy issues and discuss the Forum’s key topic from a longer-term perspective. The theme of the 2025 ECB Forum on Central Banking is “Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. ...