Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between China and the U.S. over rare earth elements is intensifying, with China leveraging its control over key mineral resources to gain a strategic advantage in the tech rivalry [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Semiconductor and Rare Earth Challenges - The U.S. semiconductor industry is facing challenges as China's rare earth strategy alters the dynamics of the tech competition [3]. - China's export controls on heavy rare earths have significantly impacted U.S. industrial projects, leading to production halts in various sectors [6][17]. - Experts acknowledge that China's influence in the rare earth market currently surpasses that of the U.S., with a potential decade-long timeline for the U.S. to reduce its dependency on Chinese rare earths [7][19]. Group 2: U.S. Response and Strategic Initiatives - The U.S. government is attempting to establish a complete domestic rare earth supply chain by 2027, but faces significant challenges due to a lack of commercially viable mines and technological gaps [19][21]. - The U.S. is actively seeking partnerships with domestic and international companies to bolster its rare earth capabilities, but the industry is characterized by high investment costs and long cycles [21][27]. Group 3: Implications of Rare Earth Control - The current situation highlights the potential for China to target the U.S. defense supply chain, which relies heavily on specific rare earth elements [23]. - The rare earth export issue has become a focal point in U.S.-China relations, with accusations from U.S. officials regarding China's control over exports [25]. - China has shown willingness to engage in dialogue by suspending export controls on certain U.S. companies, indicating that its rare earth leverage is not fully utilized [27][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The article suggests that rare earths should not be used as tools of confrontation, but rather as drivers of technological advancement, advocating for a cooperative approach between the U.S. and China [30]. - It emphasizes the need for the U.S. to recognize interdependence and to rebuild trust in trade relations to stabilize the global supply chain [30].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented unilateral tariff policies against several Latin American countries since February, causing widespread concern and strong opposition among these nations [1] - Latin American leaders criticized the U.S. tariff policies at the CELAC summit, stating that they violate multilateralism principles and disrupt the global economic order [1] - Luis Almagro, the Secretary-General of the Organization of American States, warned that if Latin America succumbs to U.S. pressure to cut trade ties with China, it would lead to severe regional economic disaster, as China is a primary trade partner for almost all Latin American countries [1][6] Group 2 - The U.S. has faced challenges in its tariff war with China, failing to rally allies for a united front against China, as evidenced by the lack of mention of tariffs or China in the G7 finance ministers' joint statement [2] - Rick Crawford, Chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, emphasized the need for more actions in the Western Hemisphere to curb China's growing influence in Latin America [2] Group 3 - The recent Fourth China-Latin America Forum, held in Beijing, reflects a new geopolitical trend in Latin America, with countries actively supporting the forum amid the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry [4] - Despite historical U.S. dominance in Latin America, the region's geopolitical significance has diminished, leading to reduced U.S. investment and influence over the years [4] Group 4 - Almagro criticized the Trump administration for pressuring Latin American countries to sever trade ties with China, asserting that such actions would be economically disastrous for the region [6] - The increasing economic ties between Latin America and China have diminished U.S. control over the region, as over 30 Latin American countries have developed closer trade relations with China [6][9]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the geopolitical tensions between the US, China, and Russia, highlighting the US's attempts to dominate global trade and politics while trying to reduce China to a low-cost manufacturing hub [1][5]. - The article discusses the US's strategy of dividing the world into three spheres of influence, which is seen as a ploy to maintain its global hegemony rather than a genuine effort for fair cooperation [1][5]. - It emphasizes that the US's trade war tactics, including tariff increases, backfired, leading to domestic economic issues such as rising prices and empty store shelves, ultimately resulting in the US retracting many tariffs [2]. Group 2 - China's response to US aggression is characterized by strategic countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs and controlling rare earth exports, which are critical to the US [2]. - The article highlights China's unique advantages, such as a large domestic market of 1.4 billion people and a complete industrial chain, which provide resilience and risk management in international competition [3]. - It points out that China's governance model allows for rapid mobilization of resources to tackle significant challenges, distinguishing it from the approaches used by the US against other nations like the Soviet Union and Japan [3].

Group 1 - Shein is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, with plans to submit a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the coming weeks, aiming for completion within the year [1] - SpaceX's Starship experienced a non-planned disintegration during its ninth test flight, losing contact with the control center shortly after launch [2] - A report indicates that the average annual salary for executives in A-share listed companies is 1.6367 million yuan, with the highest salary reaching 41.8 million yuan [3] Group 2 - A scholar from Fudan University stated that the second phase of the US-China competition has begun, focusing on gaining third-party support and addressing issues like service market openness and technology restrictions [4] - Antonio Filosa has been appointed as the new CEO of Stellantis, effective June 23, following the resignation of Carlos Tavares [5] - Nissan plans to raise over 700 million USD through bond issuance and asset sales, including a government-backed loan from the UK [6] Group 3 - Cathay Capital announced the successful fundraising of the largest AI-focused fund in the EU, with a total size of 1 billion USD [7] - XPeng Motors launched the MONA M03 Max version at a reduced price, with a price drop of 16,000 to 26,000 yuan compared to the pre-sale price [8] - The acquisition of Skechers by 3G Capital for over 9 billion USD was influenced by increased tariffs, leading to a trend of more brand sales [10] Group 4 - McKinsey has laid off over 10% of its workforce, marking the largest round of layoffs in its history, with current employee numbers around 40,000 [11] - Apple is set to launch a new gaming application and has acquired a small game company, RAC7, to enhance its gaming business [11] - Elon Musk indicated a shift in focus for the government efficiency department towards improving federal computer systems rather than large-scale layoffs [12] Group 5 - CATL is investing in solid-state battery technology, aiming for small-scale production by 2027, with a goal to complete the development of a 20 Ah solid-state battery cell by the end of this year [13]

Group 1: Industry Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals for copper prices still provide some support, and Shanghai copper is expected to remain range - bound before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but is likely to experience weak and volatile trading in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply and demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 27, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract fell 0.01% to 77,900 yuan/ton. Macro - disturbances have weakened, but Sino - US trade issues remain uncertain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure on smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May is weaker than in April but better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level with slight accumulation. The price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday [1]. - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the trading was sluggish [6]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,128 tons to 34,961 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 27, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton. Some mining licenses in Guinea were revoked. Alumina operating capacity is expected to recover gradually. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. The downstream开工 rate is weakening, but inventory has decreased unexpectedly. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - In the spot market, the trading was stable, and the downstream increased procurement [7]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 775 tons to 54,567 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 27, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.58% to 122,310 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and nickel downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced nickel ore. The refined nickel market has an oversupply situation. Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost but face long - term supply surplus and weak and volatile trading [3][4]. - In the spot market, nickel prices fell [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,362 tons to 199,998 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 27, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.06% to 264,790 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and consumption in the semiconductor industry is expected to improve. Inventory is at a medium level. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended [5]. - In the spot market, merchants maintained rigid - demand restocking [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 18 tons to 7,998 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,660 tons [15]. Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices rose, and downstream demand led to inventory reduction [9][10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,774 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [15]. Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and the trading was dull [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,015 tons to 37,299 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [15]. Alumina - In the spot market, alumina prices rose in different regions, and the trading was stable [8].

Group 1 - The initial agreement between China and the US on tariff issues is perceived by many as a victory for China, but the situation is more complex than it appears [1] - Shortly after the joint statement, the US took action against Huawei's Ascend chips by issuing a "global ban," indicating a shift in focus from tariffs to AI chip restrictions [3] - China has countered with a "rare earth export control pre-filing," which serves as a warning to countries that might cooperate with the US against Huawei [5] Group 2 - In response to the US's unpredictable actions, China has adopted a strategy of reciprocal measures, warning countries against complying with US restrictions on Huawei's Ascend chips [6] - The US's attempt to regain leverage in the AI chip sector backfired, leading to a modification of their stance from a "global ban" to a "risk warning" [7] - The ongoing US-China negotiations highlight the need for China to remain vigilant and strengthen its position, as the competition is not merely about words but about power dynamics [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cranes has faced strong opposition from the American Association of Port Authorities, highlighting a new dimension in the U.S.-China economic rivalry [1] - Over 80% of the cranes used in U.S. ports come from China, specifically from ZPMC, with Japanese and European companies' annual production capacity being less than one-fifth of China's [1] - The procurement cost for cranes at the Port of Houston is projected to rise from $100 million to $300 million due to the new tariffs, which could lead to significant challenges for U.S. ports [1] Group 2 - China's ZPMC has seen a 35% year-on-year increase in overseas orders, indicating the ongoing vitality of the Belt and Road Initiative [3] - The U.S. tariff policy has revealed limitations in American strategy, as it fails to revive domestic manufacturing or prevent the spread of Chinese technology standards [4] - The American Port Authorities Association predicts that U.S. ports will incur an additional $6.7 billion in costs over the next decade due to the tariffs, which will ultimately be passed on to U.S. businesses and consumers [6] Group 3 - China's dominance in the port machinery sector is attributed to decades of development, resulting in a complete industrial chain from R&D to service [4] - The integration of global supply chains has not progressed as the U.S. anticipated, with Southeast Asian countries still relying heavily on Chinese suppliers for high-end equipment [6] - The trend of talent flow is shifting, with more Chinese scholars returning home due to U.S. visa restrictions, which is strengthening China's innovation capabilities [9] Group 4 - Infrastructure construction has become a new battleground in U.S.-China competition, with Chinese companies undertaking overseas port and railway projects that often include the export of technology standards [7] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has further reduced trade barriers within Asia, with China maintaining its position as the largest trading partner of ASEAN countries [9] - The essence of the U.S.-China rivalry is a competition of development models, with the U.S. attempting to maintain its advantage through sanctions and blockades, while China expands its space through open cooperation [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported that as of March 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings, dropping from the second-largest to the third-largest holder [1] - Japan increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $4.9 billion to $1.1308 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder [1] - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $18.9 billion to $765.4 billion, marking its first reduction of the year, and projections suggest it may fall below $700 billion by year-end if the trend continues [1] Group 2 - China has been diversifying its foreign reserves, having accumulated 1,208 tons of gold over the past decade, raising its official gold reserves to 2,262 tons, a 114% increase, making it the second-largest gold holder globally [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policies have led to increased debt and interest payments, raising concerns about the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, which are now viewed by some as a Ponzi scheme [3][5] - The ongoing U.S.-China economic rivalry is characterized by a dual approach, with public tariff disputes and private financial tensions, as evidenced by China's simultaneous reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds and increase in gold reserves [5][7] Group 3 - Trump's recent statements indicate a desire for improved U.S.-China relations, emphasizing the importance of the relationship, although his request for a visit to China has not been reciprocated by the Chinese side [5] - The U.S. faces increased economic pressure due to China's reduction of Treasury holdings, which could exacerbate its existing economic challenges [5] - The strategic economic theory suggests that China should reconsider holding large amounts of U.S. debt, given the U.S. government's significant fiscal deficits funded through bond issuance [7]

美国不缺钱、不缺武器，也不缺盟友，但它越来越缺一样东西：信任。曾经号称自由灯塔，现在却在关税上耍手段，在规则上反复横跳。谁都看得出来，这 样的霸权，没有多少人愿意长久依附。你可以压别人一次两次，但压得越狠，反弹越猛。 中美之间的这场较量，刚刚在关税问题上再次碰撞出火花。表面看，美国率先出手，加税压制中国，气势汹汹，像是铁了心要打压到底。可没几天，风向就 变了。美方说要评估，说要听各方意见。这个节奏，熟悉吧？上来一拳，试探一下对手，看看反应再说。可这次，中国没让它得逞。 这已经不是第一次类似的博弈。从芯片封锁到科技围堵，再到这轮关税施压，美国几乎动用了所有手段，想要拖住中国的脚步。它不是怕我们而是怕我们接 下来的十年，甚至二十年。 但这次不一样的，是有更多国家在观望之后，悄悄站到了我们这边。有人说，是因为他们看清了中国的经济规模仍然不敌美国，觉得跟着中国没好处。但事 实真的是这样吗？不完全是。因为看清美国并不等于投靠它。欧美一部分政客早就发现，美国想的不是合作共赢，而是我赢你输，而这一点，正在被越来越 多的国家识破。 美国加税，中国不躲不闪，反而顶了上去。商务部立刻回应，公开声明绝不会接受霸凌。这不是一句空话， ...

Core Insights - The essence of the trade war is the ultimate confrontation between China's industrial power and the financial power of the US dollar, with China's industrial power becoming increasingly dominant over the past 20 years [1][2] - By 2024, China's manufacturing output is projected to account for 35% of global manufacturing, with expectations to rise to 45% by 2030, indicating a significant upward trend in China's industrial capabilities [1] - The ongoing US-China rivalry necessitates long-term preparation, as each confrontation presents important investment opportunities in China's core assets [2] Group 1 - China is the most capable economy in the world to achieve zero tariffs, indicating a strong industrial capacity and a willingness to open up further [3][7] - The restructuring of global order and balance is seen as a historical long-term strategic competition between the US and China, with gold being recommended as a long-term investment strategy [3][5] - The acceptance of China's rise and the new global order by the US is crucial for alleviating economic pain, suggesting a need for cooperation rather than conflict [5][7] Group 2 - The mismatch between industrial power and financial power is a root cause of ongoing conflicts, with a potential rebalancing of macroeconomic accounts in the US being threatened [2] - The strategy of investing in China's core assets during periods of intense competition is emphasized as a sound approach for capital markets [3][2] - The future global order is expected to see a significant increase in the weight of RMB-denominated assets, aligning with China's strong industrial structure [7]