1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, mild CPI data boosted market sentiment, while tariff risks continued to affect expectations. The market digested the probability of no rate cut in July and a 54% probability of a rate cut in September. In China, the Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues persisted, with production being strong and demand weakening. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [2][3]. - For precious metals, silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged. Copper is expected to enter a short - term shock, with Shanghai copper stabilizing and waiting for new drivers. Aluminum prices are in shock adjustment due to the consumption off - season. Alumina is in a strong shock. Zinc prices are weakly oscillating due to the cooling of rate - cut and policy expectations. Lead prices are dragged down by LME inventory increases. Tin prices are oscillating due to macro - and micro - level factors. Industrial silicon is expected to continue to rebound. Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance. Crude oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical risks. Steel futures are oscillating downward. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Bean and rapeseed meal may oscillate strongly. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][24][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI at 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The US reduced tariffs on Indonesia to 19%, and the US Treasury Secretary stated that China - US tariff negotiations were progressing smoothly. The dollar index was above 98.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield approached 4.5%, the US stock market opened high and closed low, gold prices rose and then fell, and copper and oil prices oscillated [2]. - **Domestic**: Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues remained. Industrial added value in June was much higher than expected, while investment weakened across the board, the real estate market was sluggish, and social retail sales were lower than expected. After the data release, the bond market rose, and the A - share market adjusted. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to correct on Tuesday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99 per ounce. Silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. 3.3 Base Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai copper's main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The LME copper price was seeking support at the $9600 level. The domestic inflation transmission process was slow, and it is expected that the inflation pressure in the US will increase significantly in July - August. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the market is expected to enter a short - term shock [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The market is in the consumption off - season, and aluminum prices are in shock adjustment [8]. - **Alumina**: Alumina futures' main contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The spot market is in a strong shock [10]. - **Zinc**: Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated weakly. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has cooled, and zinc prices are weakly oscillating [11][12]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead's main contract fell during the day and rebounded at night. LME inventory increased significantly, dragging down Shanghai lead prices. The short - term downward trend is expected to slow down [13][14]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin's main contract first rose and then fell during the day and stabilized at night. Macro - and micro - level factors are in a stalemate, and tin prices are oscillating [15]. 3.4 Other Metals and Minerals - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. The supply side is in a tight state, and with the boost of new policies, it is expected to continue to rebound [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures oscillated widely, and the spot price rose slightly. Policy - related disturbances have not materialized, and lithium prices are oscillating [18][19]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillated widely. Core inflation rose but was lower than expected. The cost side is expected to decline, and nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance [20]. 3.5 Energy - Crude oil prices were weakly operating. Geopolitical risks may rise again, and the market is in shock. Investors should be cautious and wait and see in the short term [21]. 3.6 Steel - Steel futures oscillated downward. The Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, and the demand is weak. Steel prices are expected to adjust [22][23]. 3.7 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated at a high level. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean crushing volume in June was higher than expected, and the weather in the producing areas is good. The market may oscillate strongly [25][26]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export demand declined in the first half of July. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [27][28].

关税大消息。 昨夜，美股三大指数涨跌不一，中概股集体大涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨2.76%，万得中概科技龙头 指数上涨3.85%。 | 名称 | 现价 | | --- | --- | | 万得中概科技龙头指数 | 4025.89c 149.10 3.85% | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7697.24c 206.98 2.76% | | 万得中概股100 | 98.92 3.58% 2860.22c | 中概科技龙头方面，百度集团、阿里巴巴涨超8%，京东集团涨超4%，拼多多、网易涨超2%。 特朗普宣布对印尼征收19%关税 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BIDU | 百度集团 | 93.290 | 8.64% | | BABA | 阿里巴巴 | 117.000 | 8.11% | | JD | 京东集团 | 32.040 | 4.03% | | PDD | 拼多多 | 105.060 | 2.59% | | NTES | 网易 | 133.120 | 2.48% | | MPNGY | 美团-ADR | 30.800c | 1.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, initially rising but ultimately closing lower, indicating increased bearish pressure. The overall trend remains upward, suggesting potential for a rebound if it can hold above key support levels [1][3]. Market Performance - On July 15, gold opened at $3344.03 per ounce, reaching a high of $3366.37 during the European session before falling to a low of $3320.12 in the U.S. session, ultimately closing at $3324.74, down $19.29 or 0.58% [1][3]. - The market is currently facing pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar index and upcoming economic data releases, which may further impact gold prices [3][5]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a slight rebound, higher than previous values, which diminishes the likelihood of an interest rate cut this month, negatively affecting gold prices [3][5]. - The market sentiment is influenced by ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions, with recent comments from U.S. Treasury officials indicating a positive outlook on U.S.-China talks [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices are maintaining a position above the middle Bollinger Band but show bearish signals in indicators, suggesting potential for a decline towards support levels [6][8]. - Key support levels to watch include $3323 and $3300, while resistance is noted around $3340 and $3351 [8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that despite current bearish pressures, there remains a possibility for a bullish trend to emerge later in the year, particularly if the Federal Reserve signals a more accommodative monetary policy [5][6].

美国财长贝森特：我说过4月2日的关税是善意谈判的上限。 ...

Market Trends - The current market consensus indicates that internal reforms are needed to counter external uncertainties, which is fundamental for a sustained bull market in equities [1] - The divergence in equity structure is significant, influenced by urbanization and real estate value reassessment, traditional cyclical industry profit reversals, and ongoing technological innovation [1] Cyclical Recovery vs. Revival - The market showed mixed signals with cyclical commodities experiencing sporadic increases, such as coking coal rising by 8.8% and silver by 5.4% [1] - The real estate sector saw a 6.1% increase, while steel and construction materials rose by 4.4% and 3.3% respectively [1] Global Asset Trends - Global stock markets displayed divergence, with the Russian MOEX index down by 5.7% and Brazil's index down by 3.6% [2] - The U.S. economic uncertainties are beginning to weaken their impact on global markets, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing global risk premiums [2] Domestic Economic Environment - China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell by 16.1% [6] - The overall economic outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain, with expectations of a decline in exports and potential depreciation of the RMB [6] Policy and Investment Strategies - The cyclical recovery is influenced by supply-demand dynamics and government policies aimed at stimulating demand through supply adjustments [9] - The potential for a cyclical recovery exists, but its impact on the economy and employment is constrained by the need for long-term policy effectiveness [11] Investment Logic - The investment strategy should focus on central enterprises and state-owned assets, as the market dynamics favor those with stronger operational capabilities [12]

马来西亚贸易部长：对于特定行业，我们有机会就低于10%的关税进行谈判。如果美国关税税率仍然很 高，我们就无法同意协议条件。 ...

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,351.89, with a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3,351.89, while the lowest was $3,340.99, showing a range of fluctuation within the trading session [1] Group 2 - A senior economist warns that inflation momentum is clear, and if US-Japan tariff negotiations succeed, an interest rate hike in October is possible [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year and the next, as companies shift from temporary cost-pass-through strategies to more permanent price transmission mechanisms [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently experiencing a high-level consolidation, with potential risks of a downturn to around $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the May moving average [3] - If gold prices break below the May moving average support, they could drop to the $3,000 level, but the likelihood of this happening is considered low due to multiple expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [3] - Current indicators suggest a bearish signal, indicating a potential for a pullback, but any decline is expected to find support near the middle moving average, presenting a buying opportunity [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's tariff pressure is escalating, leading to games among countries in negotiation, counter - measures, and buffering. Domestically, China's June economic data is better than expected, with exports and imports improving and the trade surplus expanding. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold is in shock, while silver has started a catch - up rally, and it is expected that the catch - up rally of silver will continue [4][5]. - Copper: The LME's visible inventory has increased, and Lun copper is under pressure at high levels. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has increased significantly, and Shanghai aluminum has reduced positions and adjusted. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina: There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and alumina will maintain a shock [10]. - Zinc: With the macro and micro factors in a tug - of - war, zinc prices will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Lead: Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. - Tin: The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. - Industrial silicon: Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mine - end disturbances is limited, and lithium prices will oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event [17][18]. - Nickel: The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. - Crude oil: There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. - Steel products: The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices of steel products will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. - Iron ore: The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. - Palm oil: India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's tariff pressure is escalating. The EU warns of counter - tariffs on $720 billion of US products, Trump threatens Russia with 100% secondary tariffs, Brazil requests tariff reduction and postponement, and the US starts a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports. The dollar index rose above 98, and the stock and commodity markets had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Domestically: China's June exports and imports were better than expected, the trade surplus expanded, and the financial data marginally improved. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce on Monday. The current gold price is in shock [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce on Monday. Silver has started a catch - up rally, reaching a new high in nearly 14 years. It is expected that the catch - up rally will continue [4][5]. 3.3 Base Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract was weakly oscillating, and Lun copper oscillated around $9700. The LME inventory rose to 109,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415 yuan per ton, down 1.45%. The social inventory of aluminum increased significantly, and the market's long - position confidence declined. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3145 yuan per ton, down 0.6%. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected to maintain a shock [10]. Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and rose after a low opening at night. The overall zinc price will oscillate at a low level due to the tug - of - war between macro and micro factors [11]. Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract fluctuated greatly during the day and first declined then rose at night. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. 3.4 Industrial Products Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the futures price of lithium carbonate was running strongly, and the spot price rose slightly. The impact of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event is uncertain, and lithium prices will oscillate [17][18]. 3.5 Energy Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated weakly. There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. 3.6 Steel Products Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated. The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract also rose. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for summer travel in the US is higher than expected, and the strong gasoline demand boosts market confidence. OPEC+ is optimistic about gasoline demand in the third quarter. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August, which postpones market concerns. PTA will see new installations put into production in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. The PX supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates, and the fundamentals are weakening. The PTA market is affected by the strong crude oil market, and the downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than last year. The PTA spot basis has rebounded from the bottom. However, with new installations expected on the supply side and no improvement in demand during the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, and due to weak supply - demand expectations, prices have fallen across the board. If polyester production cuts deepen, industry chain contradictions will intensify. The cost - side strength drives the profit distribution pattern to tilt towards raw materials again. PTA will fluctuate, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply, and downstream buying enthusiasm is waning. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 14, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.98 per barrel, down 2.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.21 per barrel, down 1.63%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on July 11 was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on July 14 was $740 per ton, up 2.85%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) on July 14 was $852 per ton, up 1.83% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,740 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, up 0.72%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.45%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The CCFEI price index of foreign PTA on July 11 was $624 per ton, down 1.58%. The near - far month spread was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [1]. - **PX**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 1.25%; the settlement price was 6,748 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%; the settlement price was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,813 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Chinese Taipei) was $851 per ton, up 1.67%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $826 per ton, up 1.72%. The PXN spread was $267.75 per ton, up 8.99%; the PX - MX spread was $112 per ton, down 4.41%. The basis was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 84 yuan per ton [1]. - **PR**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,050 yuan per ton, down 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 14, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 0.28 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 59.12%, unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament was 37%, up 1 percentage point; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 74%, up 33 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 144%, up 83 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA has slightly rebounded, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,740 yuan per ton (up 0.64%), and the daily trading volume was 1.01 million lots. The PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.86%), and the daily trading volume was 228,200 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,920 yuan per ton (up 0.58%), and the daily trading volume was 53,700 lots. The international oil price has declined. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly in light of President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports, which has led to increased market volatility and concerns over economic impacts [1][7][4]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is preparing to strengthen cooperation with countries also threatened by US tariffs, including Canada and Japan, potentially coordinating response measures [2][6]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that while the EU has paused retaliatory measures until August 1, it is preparing further countermeasures to ensure readiness [10][11]. - The EU's current countermeasure list could affect approximately €210 billion (about $245 billion) of US goods, with an additional list of around €720 billion being prepared [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff announcement, European stock indices fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.6% and the German DAX index down 0.7% on July 14 [3][7]. - US stock markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the S&P 500 down 0.2% [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Analysts warn that if the 30% tariff is fully implemented, the effective tariff rate on the EU could rise to 26 percentage points, potentially leading to a cumulative GDP decline of 1.2% in the Eurozone by the end of 2026 [4][24]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to increased inflation and volatility in interest rates and exchange rates, impacting risk assets and commodities [24]. Group 4: Political Responses - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's tariff threats, urging the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by August 1 [13]. - German Chancellor Merz indicated that failure to resolve the trade conflict through negotiations would fundamentally impact European exporters [14]. Group 5: Ongoing Negotiations - Key issues in the ongoing EU-US negotiations include automotive and agricultural tariffs, with discussions about a preliminary agreement that may involve a 10% tariff on most EU exports [16][17]. - There is skepticism among EU officials regarding Trump's commitment to the 30% tariff, viewing it as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy [18].