Core Viewpoint - The labor market has essentially reached its targets, allowing the Federal Reserve to shift its focus primarily to inflation issues [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation is reinforced by the current state of the labor market [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：劳动力市场状况总体保持健康。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

金十数据7月3日讯，Plante Moran Financial Advisors首席投资官Jim Baird表示，当前市场对劳动力市场 疲软的担忧仍被过分夸大。就业市场实际上仍保持稳定。但必须深入分析下一层数据——当看到私营部 门就业增长明显放缓时，仍需保持警惕。整体就业数据的强劲表现主要得益于州和地方政府岗位的大幅 增加，特别是教育行业。毫无疑问，我们仍处于招聘环境疲软的阶段。企业虽未大规模裁员，但在贸易 和税收政策前景明朗前，基本维持着保守的招聘策略。 机构：美国政府岗位撑起的就业繁荣难掩私营部门寒意 ...

财料 美国6月劳动力市场格外强健，7月降息或就此"梦碎"？政府机构就业猛增，马斯克这小半年怕是白干了……一图读懂2025年6月 美国非农就业报告 22.8 19.9 20 1314.7 10 0 ·失业率 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4% 4%3.99 3.9% 3.9%99 3.8%9 2318% 3.8% 3.7%7% 3.7% 0037%7 Q 3.6% 06%B.8%0 31686% 3.6% 5% 5/3/3/2 5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% ·CME"美联储观察"工具对美联储利率未来预期 数据公布前 数据公布后 0 ·平均每小时工资月率 0.7% 0.7%0.6 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 6 0.5% 0.5% - 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0% 02 | 2025年07月非农就业人口全貌 7月非农总就业人口1.5972亿人 ▲14.7万人 单位: 万人 采矿和伐木 62.1 联邦政府 -0.2 294.6 _0.7 建筑 州政府 832.4 558 +1.5 +4.7 十八节如下 NA BOOK J 13602.6 +7.4 私营服务生产 11433.1 +6 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In June, U.S. private sector jobs decreased by 33,000, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][7]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job gains, with a total increase of 32,000 in production jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [8]. Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Employers are becoming increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focusing on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700, the lowest since the early pandemic [10]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a potential shift in economic sentiment [10]. Wage Growth and Employment Trends - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [10]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with significant losses in the service sector [1][3] - The labor market's weakness has raised concerns among market participants, with employers becoming increasingly cautious amid economic slowdown [3][11] Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000, with May's figures revised down to a mere 29,000 increase [1][3] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in small businesses, while manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors saw job gains [5][8] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced a notable decline, losing 66,000 jobs, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [3][9] - In contrast, the goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, with manufacturing contributing 15,000, construction 9,000, and mining 8,000 [9] Wage Growth - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wage growth remains relatively stable, with year-over-year wage growth for employed workers at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.5% in May [10] - The wage growth for job switchers decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [12] - The dollar index fell by approximately 20 points, while U.S. stock futures showed minimal fluctuations [14] Broader Labor Market Indicators - Average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 per month, the weakest level since the onset of the pandemic [15] - Additional indicators of labor market weakness include longer job search times and a significant drop in consumer confidence regarding job availability [16]

Group 1 - The ADP employment report for June shows a decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the first employment contraction since March 2023, which is below the expected increase of 95,000 jobs and the previous value of 37,000 jobs [1] - The report indicates that the labor market remains weak despite some tariff reductions by the Trump administration, with traders increasing bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025 [1][2] - ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson, noted that while layoffs are still rare, employer hesitance in hiring and negative filling of positions left by departing employees contributed to the job losses [1] Group 2 - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the professional/business services and healthcare/education sectors, with a reduction of 56,000 and 52,000 jobs respectively, while financial activities also saw a decline of 14,000 jobs [3] - In contrast, the goods-producing sectors, including manufacturing and mining, added 32,000 jobs, partially offsetting the losses in the service sector, which saw a total decline of 66,000 jobs [3] - Small businesses experienced more significant layoffs, with large companies (over 500 employees) adding 30,000 jobs, while small businesses (under 20 employees) lost 29,000 jobs [3]

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]