关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 6月以来，伊以冲突升温的背景下，伊朗一度威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗进行海峡封锁的可行性、可能 性与潜在影响？本文分析，可供参考。 一、封锁"霍尔木兹"的可能性？两重约束下可能性较低，市场也并不"买单" 近期，伊朗再度威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡。 6月13日，以色列针对伊朗发起"Rising Lion"行动，伊朗随即 展开报复。6月22日，伊朗议会通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡的决议，只差最高国家安全委员会做出批准。6月 24日，伊以宣布停火，但停火后双方仍有摩擦，冲突尚未完全平息。 伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡具有较高可行性，但面临经济约束与海湾国家的压力。 一方面，伊朗深受滞胀困 扰，封锁海峡对伊朗财政收入有明显冲击；另一方面，伊拉克、沙特等海湾国家高度依赖石油开采，贸 然封锁也会加深与其他中东邻国的隔阂。这或成伊朗封锁海峡的主要掣肘。 6月24日伊以宣布停火后，市场对封锁海峡的担忧已明显退坡。 1）Polymarket隐含的伊朗2025年封锁海 峡的可能性已由53%回落至17%。2）在伊以宣布停火后，油价已跌至6月12日伊以冲突爆发 ...

以伊战火逐步熄灭，美伊或再度谈判，黄金压力看哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 黄金实时分析 ...

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产 稳步增长！ 下个月，央行很有可能会重新开始买国债。 这意味着， 下个月央妈又将开始开启放S。 为什么央妈买国债就相当于是放水呢？ 是因为"买国债"是央妈自己印钱增加基础货币，然后央妈会拿着这些印出来的货币从银行的手里 把政F发行的国债买过来。 这就相当于央妈直接往银行系统里"灌水"。 其实从去年8月到现在，央妈已经连续买国债买了5个月，这个过程中放S了1万亿。 今年年初因为忌惮RMB汇L下跌，才暂停了买债放水的步伐。 但最近，央妈又开始释放买国债的信号。 第一个信号是 各个大银行的动作 。 最近，国有4大行，突然疯狂抢购短期国债，大家要知道，每次央行要大举买国债之前，这些国有 银行都会先冲进去抢短债！ 因为这些银行都知道央妈接下来会高价买入债券， 所以他们需要低 价买入，转手卖给央妈就能赚 差价。 所以当大银行开始短期大幅度买入短债的时候，那就是央妈即将放S的一个标志； 第二个信号是 政F的发债成本。 今年央行是降息的，正常来说政F发国债的实际成本也就是国 ...

最新数据显示，美国制造业在六月份继续保持增长势头，但伴随而来的是原材料和产品的售价显著攀升。根据标普全球周一发布的报告，六月份美国制造业 采购经理人指数（PMI）维持在五十二的水平，与五月份持平，这是自今年二月以来的最高读数。该指数高于五十的荣枯线，表明制造业仍处于扩张区间。 值得关注的是，两项关键通胀指标均创下二零二二年七月以来的新高。其中，原料支付价格指数大幅上升五点四至七十，创下四年来最大单月涨幅。同时， 价格接受指标也出现类似涨幅，反映出制造商正将包括进口关税在内的成本上涨压力转嫁给下游客户。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆 森指出："美国国内需求特别是制造业需求的增强推动了就业增长，但部分增长动力来自库存增加，这通常与关税引发的价格上升和供应担忧有关。"他预 计，这种库存增加的态势可能在几个月内逐渐消退。数据显示，六月份美国制造业就业增速达到一年来最快水平。 这份基于六月十二日至二十日间采集的调查数据还显示，美国制造业企业正面临多重挑战。一方面，强劲的就业市场支撑了消费需求；另一方面，供应链问 题和关税政策推高了生产成本。许多企业选择通过提价来转嫁成本压力，这可能导致通胀压力持续存在 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined, trading around 98.00, while gold prices are currently at $3327.46 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.11% [1] - Gold reached a high of $3336.95 per ounce and a low of $3320.41 per ounce during the trading session [1] - Current prices for various gold products include spot gold at $3327.46 per ounce, gold T+D at ¥771.70 per gram, paper gold at ¥766.75 per gram, and Shanghai gold futures at ¥773.94 per gram [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Trump administration's plan to raise tariffs this summer could significantly increase price levels, with initial effects expected in June and July economic data [3] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's policy decisions are based on economic data rather than political pressure, maintaining a cautious approach due to uncertainties from the tariff dispute [3] - The Fed is closely monitoring inflation dynamics, with potential implications for interest rate decisions, including the possibility of earlier rate cuts if inflation pressures are controlled [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently supported by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3327 per ounce [4] - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is around 49, indicating that gold's ability to stay above the 50-day SMA remains uncertain [4] - If gold fails to close above the 50-day SMA, it may retest the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3297 per ounce, with further declines potentially leading to support levels at $3250 and $3232 per ounce [4]

瑞典央行会议纪要：瑞典央行行长特登表示，仍然认为当前的贸易冲突不太可能引发瑞典出现强烈的通 胀压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The perception that most Chinese households can easily access 200,000 yuan in cash is misleading, as it overlooks the uneven distribution of savings and other financial factors [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Household Savings and Distribution - As of the end of 2021, the total savings of residents in China reached 103.34 trillion yuan, with an average savings of 73,000 yuan per person. However, only about 20% of households have savings of 200,000 yuan or more, indicating that approximately 1 billion households can actually access this amount [1][8]. Factors Limiting Cash Availability - A significant 65% of households have savings below 163,000 yuan, which highlights the disparity in savings distribution [1][8]. - The younger generation faces high debt levels, with nearly 90% of those born in the 1990s carrying debt that would take an average of 18 months of salary to repay, making it challenging for them to withdraw 200,000 yuan in cash [4][6]. - The burden of housing loans is substantial, with personal mortgage loans totaling 38.8 trillion yuan, affecting over 200 million households. Many of these households have savings below 100,000 yuan, further complicating their ability to access 200,000 yuan [6][8]. Income and Living Costs - Most households earn between 3,000 and 6,000 yuan per month, with a significant portion of their income allocated to daily expenses, including necessities and education. This financial strain, coupled with rising prices and income instability, makes it difficult for families to maintain a balance, let alone save 200,000 yuan [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing volatility in palm oil futures, highlighting the market's struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, and the challenges in addressing supply pressures [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The palm oil futures market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leading to uncertainty about whether the market will rebound or reverse [1] - Supply pressures in the market are significant, raising questions about how these challenges can be effectively managed [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the resolution of supply pressures will be crucial in determining the future direction of palm oil prices [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring developments that could influence the balance between supply and demand in the palm oil sector [1]

| 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 能源化工期权 2025-06-25 能源化工期权策略早报 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏多上行，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花反弹后高位盘整形态，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万 ...