Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed performance of consumption, industrial production, and investment, indicating a potential lack of sustainability in the recent economic recovery [7]. Consumption - In May 2025, retail sales showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from April, driven by government subsidies and increased consumer travel [7][18]. - The demand for gold and jewelry has increased due to rising gold prices, but this consumption is not stable and may not be sustainable if income does not improve [7]. - The overall consumer sentiment is cautious, with a preference for using savings over loans for consumption, reflecting a weak growth in new short-term loans [7]. Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in May 2025 was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating a slowdown in industrial production [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained in negative territory at -0.1%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% in May 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from April, with real estate investment declining by 10.7% [7]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 10.42%, but this was also a decline of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a weakening trend across various sectors [7]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate sector requires additional policy support to stabilize [7]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable position due to a loose monetary policy and weak real financing, with a recommendation to maintain duration and wait for positive developments [7]. - The recent strong performance in credit bonds is attributed more to expectations rather than actual capital movement from deposits to non-banking sectors [7].

Economic Overview - Sichuan province achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods of 11,734.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.6 percentage points [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 reported an increase in value added [1] - The industrial product sales rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 94.5% [3] Industrial Growth - In the first five months, the value added of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 7.1%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [1] - Key industries with significant growth included: - Automotive manufacturing: 22.2% year-on-year growth - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing: 18.8% growth - Computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing: 14.9% growth - Black metal smelting and rolling processing: 14.9% growth - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing: 10.3% growth [1] Major Industrial Products - Natural gas production increased by 11.2% - Power generation rose by 2.8% - Smart watches saw a remarkable growth of 95.2% - Generator sets (power generation equipment) increased by 60.8% - Lithium-ion batteries grew by 49.0% - Automotive production increased by 36.4% - Industrial boilers rose by 33.1% - LCD screens grew by 28.6% - Integrated circuits increased by 14.6% - Smartphones saw a growth of 14.2% [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.0% year-on-year [3] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 17.8% - Investment in the secondary industry rose by 14.1%, with industrial investment growing by 14.3% - Investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.1% [3] Real Estate Development - Real estate development investment decreased by 6.7% - The construction area of commercial housing fell by 12.3% - The sales area of newly built commercial housing declined by 7.4% [3] Consumer Market - In terms of consumption patterns, restaurant income reached 1,611.8 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% - Retail sales of goods amounted to 10,122.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% - Among retail sales, enterprises above the designated size achieved online retail sales of 863.4 billion yuan [3] Hot Products - Retail sales of communication equipment by enterprises above the designated size grew by 65.9% - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 20.2% - Retail sales of grain, oil, and food grew by 13.2% - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies increased by 11.9% - Retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry grew by 11.3% - Retail sales of beverages increased by 10.7% [4]

Economic Growth - Sichuan Province's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to May [1] - State-owned enterprises' added value grew by 7.4%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a significant increase of 17.5% [1] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth in added value, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.2%), chemical raw materials and products (18.8%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (14.9%) [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry also grew by 14.9%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 10.3% [1] Production Output - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (up 11.2%), electricity generation (up 2.8%), and significant growth in smartwatches (95.2%), generators (60.8%), and lithium-ion batteries (49.0%) [1] - Other notable increases were seen in automotive production (36.4%), industrial boilers (33.1%), LCD screens (28.6%), integrated circuits (14.6%), and smartphones (14.2%) [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Sichuan Province grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with the primary industry seeing a 17.8% increase and the secondary industry growing by 14.1% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 14.3% [1] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 1,173.45 billion yuan, marking a 5.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 950.47 billion yuan (up 5.5%), while rural retail sales reached 222.99 billion yuan (up 6.1%) [2] Consumer Trends - Restaurant income grew by 4.5%, with significant growth in household appliances and audio-visual equipment (20.2%), food and oil products (13.2%), and cultural office supplies (11.9%) [2] - Jewelry sales increased by 11.3%, and beverage sales rose by 10.7% [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The actual resumption of production in the tin industry may be slower than market expectations, with low smelting enterprise operating rates and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin was 263,730 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price was 32,550 dollars/ton, down 230 dollars [2]. - The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was 160 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the position of the main contract was 21,967 lots, down 1,949 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin was 2,664 lots, down 101 lots; the total LME tin inventory was 2,155 tons, down 105 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,107 tons, down 265 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 520 tons, up 105 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 6,662 tons, down 98 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price was 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 265,190 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan [2]. - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was 270 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 164 dollars/ton, down 81.5 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 253,600 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 257,600 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,710 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [2]. - The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - From January to May, China's real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, down 10.7% year - on - year; the housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 9.2% year - on - year [2]. - The new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 22.8%; the sales area of new commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, down 2.9% year - on - year [2]. - The sales volume of new commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, down 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, down 7.15 million square meters month - on - month [2]. - In May, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 6.4% [2]. - In the first five months, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year [2]. - The macro - situation shows that Iran hopes to end hostilities through dialogue, weakening market risk - aversion sentiment. China's May social retail sales had the highest year - on - year increase since December 2023 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down due to the large amount of low - price purchases by enterprises in the early stage. The domestic social inventory has rebounded, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - side is strong at the high position of positions. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 21,905 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 135 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,660 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 280,455 lots, down 13,538 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 791 lots, up 1,952 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,788 tons, down 178 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons; the LME inventory is 130,225 tons, down 775 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,690 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 24.57 dollars/ton, down 1.62 dollars; the factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons; the monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters; the automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.16%, down 0.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; the housing construction area was 6.2502 trillion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; the new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.15 million square meters. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end the hostility, weakening the market risk - aversion sentiment [3]

Industrial Value Added - In May 2025, the industrial value added of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2][3] - From January to May 2025, the industrial value added grew by 6.3% year-on-year [3] - By sector, mining increased by 5.7%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.2% in May [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [8][9] - The investment in the primary industry grew by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [10] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment rose by 11.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5% [11] Retail Sales - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [15][19] - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,057 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while rural retail sales reached 5,269 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [16] - Online retail sales for the first five months totaled 60,402 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [18] Energy Production - In May 2025, the production of raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas saw accelerated growth, while electricity production remained stable [20] - Raw coal production reached 400 million tons in May, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [21] - The electricity generation in May was 7,378 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [29]

Investment Overview - Shanghai's fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to May [1] - Investment in urban infrastructure grew by 19.1%, industrial investment rose by 18.7%, and real estate development investment increased by 4% [1] Real Estate Sector - The total construction area of commercial housing reached 15,151.82 million square meters, a growth of 2.9% [1] - Residential construction area was 7,014.86 million square meters, up by 5% [1] - New construction area for commercial housing fell by 17.1% to 663.62 million square meters, with residential new construction down by 13.1% to 368.07 million square meters [1] - The completion area of commercial housing decreased by 30.2% to 470.59 million square meters, with residential completions down by 15.3% to 271.8 million square meters [1] - Commercial housing sales area increased by 0.6% to 615.11 million square meters, with residential sales area up by 2.1% to 512.64 million square meters [1] Industrial Sector - Investment in the primary industry grew by 38%, the secondary industry by 18.5%, and the tertiary industry by 3.7% [1] - The total industrial output value of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 15,731.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - The industrial sales rate was 99.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Export delivery value from industrial enterprises increased by 9.5% to 3,231.99 billion yuan [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 687.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [2] - Retail sales of goods reached 603.62 billion yuan, increasing by 1.9%, while catering revenue fell by 2.5% to 83.59 billion yuan [2] - Key retail categories showed varied performance, with food retail up by 12.6% and automotive sales down by 14.4% [2]

Core Insights - Shanghai's fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to May this year [1] Investment Breakdown - Urban infrastructure investment grew by 19.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Industrial investment rose by 18.7% year-on-year [1] - Real estate development investment saw a growth of 4.0% [1] Sector Investment Performance - First industry investment surged by 38.0% year-on-year [1] - Second industry investment increased by 18.5% compared to the previous year [1] - Third industry investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year [1] Funding Status - Actual funds in place for investment increased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year [1]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].