【资讯导读】 ·美联储金融稳定调查：关税和政策不确定性升为首要风险 ·鲍威尔再次强调"独立性" ·香港金管局：香港金融体系保持稳健 ·俄罗斯央行维持基准利率在21.00%不变 ·加拿大2月零售销售环比降0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值降0.6%；核心零售销售环比升0.5%，预期降 0.4%，前值从升0.2%修正为升0.1%。 ·英国3月季调后零售销售环比升0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值从升1.0%修正为升0.7%；同比升2.6%，预期 升1.8%，前值升2.2%。 ·英国4月Gfk消费者信心指数-23，预期-22，前值-19。 【全球市场动态】 【市场资讯】 ·4月25日，美联储发布了一年一度的《金融稳定报告》。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金 融风险进行半年一次的调查。在报告的《金融稳定突出风险调查》一节中，高达73%的受访者将"全球 贸易风险"列为首要担忧，这一比例达到去年11月报告的两倍多，同时也有半数受访者对"政策不确定 性"表达担忧。在去年报告中位列榜首的"美国政府债务可持续性"只能屈居第三。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔强调，央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通胀稳定和高就业率。美联 储26日 ...

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

智通财经APP获悉，截至4月25日当周，标普500指数在关税担忧缓和与财报季开启的双重利好下已突破 5500点整数关口，令指数距离高盛设定的5300点短期目标已高出225点，较5900点的12个月目标价也仅 剩375点的上行空间。截至 4 月 25 日收盘，标普 500 指数已涨至 5525.21 点。但在这轮由科技股领涨的 行情背后，高盛首席美股策略师戴维·科斯汀却敲响警钟：下周将有41%的标普500成分股披露业绩，企 业投资决策可能因政策不确定性加剧而踩下刹车。 面对经济放缓信号，高盛建议投资者聚焦现金回报能力。科斯汀观察到，"近几个月市场明显偏好派息 股而非成长股，这种模式通常出现在经济下行周期"。数据显示，当前标普500指数股息率已升至1.8%， 与十年期美债收益率倒挂幅度收窄至30个基点，显示债券替代效应正在显现。 随着财报季进入核心时段，市场将迎来关键验证期。高盛特别提示，需密切关注企业对于资本支出计 划、库存水平及供应链布局的表述，这些细节将揭示政策不确定性对企业决策的实质性影响。在财政赤 字与货币政策转向的双重压力下，美股或将迎来估值逻辑的重构时刻。 在具体支出类别中，人工智能巨头撑起了资本支 ...

Group 1: Core Concerns - The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report indicates that 73% of respondents identify "global trade risk" as their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [1][3] - Half of the respondents express concerns about "policy uncertainty," reflecting anxiety over the current policy environment, which includes trade, fiscal, and monetary policies [1][4] - "Sustainability of U.S. government debt," which was the top concern in last year's report, has dropped to third place, yet remains a significant issue due to rising debt levels and potential impacts on market confidence in the dollar [1][5] Group 2: Market Implications - The escalation of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other major economies, poses a significant threat to global economic growth and financial market stability [3] - Policy uncertainty complicates market predictions and investment decisions, increasing market volatility [4] - The complex and uncertain market outlook necessitates diversified investment strategies and enhanced risk management practices to mitigate exposure to trade and policy risks [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies and investors are advised to diversify their investment portfolios to reduce risk exposure from single markets or assets [6] - Strengthening risk management, especially in supply chain management and market forecasting, is crucial to address risks arising from trade policies and uncertainty [6] - Continuous monitoring of policy developments is essential for timely adjustments in investment strategies and business plans [6]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.74% to 5525.21 points, the Nasdaq rising 1.26% to 17382.94 points, and the Dow Jones increasing slightly by 0.05% to 40113.5 points [4] - The S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 4.59% for the week, while the Nasdaq saw a rise of 6.73%, and the Dow Jones increased by 2.48% [4] Group 2: Tesla's Performance and Developments - Tesla's stock surged nearly 10%, closing at $284.95 per share, with a market capitalization of $917.8 billion [6] - The U.S. government is easing regulations on autonomous driving, allowing non-commercial test vehicles to bypass certain compliance processes, which supports Tesla's plans for launching the Cybercab fleet in Texas [9] - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report showed a significant decline in net profit by 70.6% year-over-year, with total revenue at $19.34 billion, down 9.3% compared to the previous year [9] Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - The Federal Reserve's latest financial stability report highlights rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt as top potential risks to the financial system [10] - 73% of respondents in the survey indicated that global trade risks are their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [15] - Half of the respondents expressed that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, with an increase in this concern compared to the same period last year [15]

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes the urgent need for countries to manage their fiscal affairs effectively amid high risks and uncertainties in the current environment [2] - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report indicates that recent tariff measures announced by the U.S. and retaliatory actions from other countries have increased financial market volatility, weakened global growth prospects, and heightened risks [2][3] - The IMF forecasts that global public debt will rise by 2.8 percentage points by 2025, reaching over 95% of GDP, with this trend expected to continue [2] Fiscal Pressure and Debt Levels - The IMF warns that under extreme adverse scenarios, global public debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2027, marking the highest level since World War II, exceeding baseline predictions by nearly 20 percentage points [3] - The rising demand for permanent expenditures, such as defense, is further increasing fiscal pressure on countries already facing high debt levels and strained fiscal conditions [2] - If policy uncertainties escalate, debt levels may rise beyond current estimates, exacerbating the fiscal challenges faced by nations [3]

经济衰退担忧持续影响美股 美国关税政策的僵局正在对其经济造成损害并打击投资者的信心。多项经济指标表明，关税政策有可能将美国乃 至全球多地推向经济衰退的边缘。而反复无常的关税政策，不仅没有实现特朗普政府缩减贸易逆差和促使制造业 回流的目标，反而使美国承受通胀攀升和经济下行的压力。 在美国经济增长动能放缓以及政策不确定性增加等因素的拖累下，美股于2月中旬开始见顶回落，直至3月中下旬 才出现一波反弹。到了4月，特朗普政府对非美国家宣布加征关税，给金融市场带来新一轮的冲击，阻断了美股的 反弹之路，使得避险情绪大增，美国金融市场出现历史上较为少见的"股债汇三杀"风险。 近期，不走寻常路的特朗普对美联储的货币政策表示了不满，使得美联储的独立性遭受考验，这意味着政策的不 确定性与经济下行形成了共振，美股短期或出现超跌反弹的情况。但从中期来看，美股跌势可能尚未结束，需要 等到美联储重新启动降息以及关税谈判取得进展才能有所改变。 | 0.30 0.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

美联储哈玛克：在政策不确定性之际，提前行动的时机并不合适。 ...