美国总统特朗普当地时间5月4日在社交媒体上发文称，他将授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有进入美国、在外国制作的电影征收100% 关税。对此，有美国经济学家警告，这一政策、特别是其中的不确定性将给美国电影产业构成实质性伤害。 0:00 美国欧道明大学经济系主任罗伯特·麦克纳布指出，征税对象、征税方式、执行机制等关键问题尚无细则，极大增加了市场不确定性。 罗伯特·麦克纳布认为，这一政策若落实，将直接影响许多国际合拍作品的归类与成本结构，政策模糊性还可能进一步削弱美国电影在全球的竞争力，影响 外资信心。 美国欧道明大学经济系主任 罗伯特·麦克纳布：我们该如何界定那些在海外拍摄，然后在美国剪辑并发行的作品，这算是外国电影吗？我们并不清楚。还是 说，只有完全在海外制作，然后被引进美国的电影才算外国电影。那类电影相对于好莱坞的产出来说是相对较少的。我认为，对进口国际电影加征关税，这 个提议传递出的更大信号是美国政治和经济环境的不确定性正在加剧，而这种不确定性将会在未来逐步削弱外国对美投资。 关税或削弱好莱坞全球化制作和发售能力 近年来正是跨国合作让美国电影在全球市场保持领先。如果关税真的开始执行，专家认为， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————内需维持稳定，外需压力初现 袁方1 张端怡（联系人）2魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 5 月 5 日 内容提要 4 月 PMI 的量价和分项数据表明，美国对华关税政策升级以来出口明显降 温，总需求收缩压力有所增加，二季度经济相对一季度或将减速。 五一期间人员流动、景区游客人数和消费数据表明，居民消费活动在稳步恢 复。居民出行与以旧换新政策相关性较低，这暗示居民消费的恢复更多源于自发 的消费倾向回升，这一趋势在中期有望维持。 4 月美国新增非农就业数据大幅减速，失业率维持高位，工资增速小幅下滑， 这些数据表明美国劳动力市场在持续降温。一季度 GDP 数据与 4 月劳动力市场 数据显示特朗普政策不确定性对经济的影响已经显现，未来这一影响或将延续。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450123040002 3联系人，weiwei2@es ...

Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 02, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Jennifer Hutcheson - Executive VP & CFOColin Reed - Executive Chairman of the Board of DirectorsMark Fioravanti - President and CEOPatrick Chaffin - Executive VP & COO - HotelsJack Armstrong - Equity Research AssociatePatrick Moore - CEODuane Pfennigwerth - Senior MDSmedes Rose - DirectorAri Klein - Director - Equity ResearchDavid Katz - Managing DirectorJay Kornreich - VP - Equity ResearchJohn Decree - Di ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3240.55 per ounce, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.4% [1] - Gold has experienced a downward trend, with a recent low of $3267.07, approaching a critical support level of $3260 [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies are mixed, with weak U.S. economic data supporting rate cuts, while a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields is pressuring gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a recent break below the support level of $3370, confirming a downward adjustment [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, suggesting further downside potential for gold prices [2] - The short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions during any rebounds, particularly around the resistance levels of $3260-$3270 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have dipped to $63.16, reflecting concerns over potential global economic recession due to unpredictable tariff strategies from the U.S. [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has disrupted global supply chains and affected investor confidence in long-term energy demand [5] - Current oil price trends indicate a downward trajectory, with expectations of further declines unless there are signs of trade resolution or demand recovery [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart shows a downward trend for oil prices, with a potential target of $50 following a recent low of $55.20 [6] - The short-term outlook remains bearish, with recommendations to focus on short positions during any price rebounds, particularly around resistance levels of $59.0-$60.0 [6]

Group 1 - President Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates following a stronger-than-expected April jobs report, emphasizing that consumers have been waiting for prices to drop and asserting that there is no inflation [2][4] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, surpassing market expectations of 133,000, although it is lower than the revised figure of 185,000 for March [2][4] - Despite previous criticisms, Trump has softened his stance towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating he has no intention of firing him and expressing a desire to be respectful towards the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The April employment growth remains strong, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating that uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have not significantly impacted hiring plans [4][5] - The report shows a broad distribution of job growth, particularly in healthcare, while the manufacturing sector experienced layoffs, marking the most significant production decline since 2020 [5] - The Federal Reserve officials are cautious about lowering interest rates until the specific impacts of the Trump administration's policies on the economy are clearer, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate in the upcoming meeting [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, net sales increased by 1% year over year to $778 million, with wholesale net sales up 2% and direct-to-consumer sales flat [19][20] - Gross margin expanded by 30 basis points to 50.9%, while SG&A expenses increased by 1% [19][20] - Diluted earnings per share rose by 6% year over year to $0.75 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Columbia brand net sales increased by 3%, while Mountain Hardwear net sales decreased by 14% and SOREL net sales decreased by 8% [28][33][35] - The US direct-to-consumer net sales declined by low single digits, with e-commerce down by high single digits, while brick-and-mortar sales were up low single digits due to new store contributions [21][20] - International markets showed strong performance, with LAAP net sales up 14% and EMEA net sales up 7% [22][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US net sales decreased by 1%, with the wholesale business relatively flat [20] - China net sales increased in the low teens percentage, driven by strong e-commerce growth [22] - Japan net sales increased in the mid-teens percentage, benefiting from strong demand for late-season and winter products [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating the impacts of US tariff increases and has a diversified supply chain to navigate uncertainties [6][11] - Columbia plans to increase investment in demand creation and launch a new global marketing platform starting in August [15][56] - The company aims to absorb much of the incremental tariff costs in 2025 while exploring strategies to offset higher tariffs in 2026 [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed excitement about the company's brands and strategies, despite the unprecedented level of public policy uncertainty regarding trade [6][7] - The company has withdrawn its full-year 2025 outlook due to heightened uncertainty regarding tariff rates and consumer demand [16][109] - Management anticipates a challenging US market in the latter half of the year, with higher prices negatively impacting consumer demand [18] Other Important Information - The company has identified cost savings and profit-enhancing opportunities beyond the $150 million target established in 2024 [17] - Columbia's greater reward program has been recognized as a top loyalty program, contributing significantly to direct-to-consumer sales [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expectation for wholesale in the second half of the year? - Management indicated that the fall order book has not changed meaningfully and expects wholesale growth to be similar to early February expectations [39][42] Question: Are there opportunities to take market share due to private label offerings from China? - Management believes there are opportunities to gain market share from competitors facing challenges with imports from China [41][52] Question: How will the $40 to $45 million in incremental COGS from tariffs be distributed? - Management expects the majority of the tariff costs to be realized in the second half of the year, with potential impacts extending into 2026 [43][46] Question: What is the outlook for demand creation spending? - The company plans to increase marketing spending and improve efficiency in campaigns starting in August [54][56] Question: What are the recent trends in the China market? - Management noted strong growth in China, with plans to continue investing in localized design and production [67] Question: How is the company managing inventory in light of tariff uncertainties? - The company is rationalizing inventory purchases and pulling in inventory to mitigate potential tariff impacts [100][101]

针对关税影响， 声明显示，包括贸易政策影响的不确定性仍然极高，出口和产出可能将继续表现疲软， 各国贸易和其他政策的长期高度不确定性可能导致企 业更多地关注削减成本。 声明进一步指出，如果全球物流出现中断，或进行供应链重组并产生大量成本，进口价格可能会上涨。这可能会反过来抑制国内需求。 日央行连续第二次维持利率水平不变，强调贸易政策存在"极高不确定性"。 5月1日周四，日本央行以9-0的投票结果通过最新利率决议，维持利率在0.5%不变，此次为该行连续第二次"按兵不动"，符合市场预期。 周四下午，日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会。 植田和男重申加息立场，称关税冲击使经济和通胀前景更具挑战。 植田和男称，贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加， 当前实际利率明显偏低，如果经济前景实现，将继续加息 ， 下次加息的时机将很大程度上取决于关税对经 济的影响。 日本央行一致同意"按兵不动"，继续维持利率不变 在上午公布的利率决议中，日央行下调了对GDP和通胀的预测，并强调贸易政策存在"极高不确定性"。 在决议声明中，日央行表示，日本金融体系整体保持稳定。消费有望维持温和上升趋势，经济增长将加快；但家庭对支出的防御性态度可 ...

日本经济增长可能放缓。 日本经济正在温和复苏。 日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加。 ...