证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 31 日 单车归母净利润同比+80.38%，智能化升级赋能产品大年 ——长城汽车（601633.SH）2024 年年报点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：买入（维持） 最近一年走势 | 当前价格（元） | 26.42 | | --- | --- | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 21.55-33.34 | | 总市值（百万元） | 226,225.35 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 163,642.17 | | 总股本（万股） | 856,265.51 | | 流通股（万股） | 619,387.46 | | 近一月换手（%） | 7.83 | 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 点评报告 股价对应 PE 为 15.0/12.7/11.1 倍，可比公司 PE 平均值为 19.7/15.3/ 13.0 倍，公司估值水平低于可比公司平均值，维持"买入"评级。 联系人：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230124020003 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 《2024Q3 单车收入创新高，全球化势头 不减 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 58.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.25 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.88 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.94 billion, up 100.1% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 15.7%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 gross margin improved to 16.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The television segment generated revenue of 46.63 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%, with the company maintaining a leading position in the market [1] - The new display business reported revenue of 6.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with significant growth in overseas markets, where revenue increased by 63% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a market share of 29.8% in domestic sales and 26.3% in volume, leading the industry, with notable increases in Mini LED retail market share [1] - The company is expected to benefit from national subsidies and major sporting events, which will drive channel expansion and market share growth [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.63 billion, 2.93 billion, and 3.26 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 16.9%, 11.6%, and 11.1% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 11, 10, and 9 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and profits for the fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year, with total revenue of 797.09 million yuan, a decrease of 6.44% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.00 million yuan, down 44.91% year-on-year [1][2] - The company experienced a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, which rose by 212.58% to 138.22 million yuan [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - Integrated circuit business revenue decreased by 16.58% to 37.96 million yuan due to inventory adjustments and price declines [3] - The North Star navigation application business saw an 18.77% increase in revenue to 24.59 million yuan, driven by new orders and deliveries [3] - Revenue from smart city construction and operation services fell by 29.75% to 12.43 million yuan, impacted by local fiscal tightening [3] - Revenue from machine perception and intelligent products surged by 212.05% to 3.70 million yuan, benefiting from technological advancements [3] Expense Analysis - Total operating expenses decreased by 2.03% to 37.51 million yuan [4] - Sales expenses declined by 3.44% to 5.52 million yuan, primarily due to reduced business entertainment costs [4] - Management expenses fell by 5.89% to 15.88 million yuan, attributed to lower labor costs [4] - Research and development expenses increased by 3.03% to 15.57 million yuan, reflecting a commitment to new technology and product development [4]

Core Viewpoint - There has been no official announcement regarding the merger between Dongfeng Motor and Changan Automobile, despite ongoing discussions in the industry about potential restructuring involving state-owned enterprises [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongfeng Group achieved sales revenue of 106.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% - Gross profit reached 13.585 billion yuan, up 38.2%, with a gross margin of 12.8% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 58 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround with a year-on-year increase of 39.45 billion yuan [1] - The company reported an asset-liability ratio of 52.4% and an operating cash flow increase of 8.15 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Sales Performance - Dongfeng Group sold approximately 1.8959 million vehicles in 2024, a decline of 9.2% year-on-year - Sales of self-owned passenger vehicles reached 438,900 units, an increase of 26.4%, with a gross margin improvement of 8.4 percentage points - The revenue from passenger vehicle sales was about 52.297 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 22.93% - Commercial vehicle sales were around 351,800 units, a growth of 2.4%, but revenue decreased by 4.68% to about 47.22 billion yuan due to weakened investment and low market demand [2] Internal Reforms - In 2024, Dongfeng Group implemented four key initiatives: 1. Promoting centralized development and procurement in R&D for basic platforms and powertrains to enhance efficiency 2. Establishing a passenger vehicle operation committee to improve resource allocation 3. Creating a commercial vehicle division to unify platform definitions and optimize resources 4. Forming a parts division [3] Future Outlook - For 2025, Dongfeng Group aims to achieve overall sales of 3 million vehicles, with a target of 3.2 million - The company has set a goal of selling 1 million new energy vehicles and exporting 500,000 units overseas - Plans include launching 7 new passenger vehicle models and 3 commercial vehicle models, along with smart upgrades through self-research and partnerships with Huawei [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the emergence of new consumption trends driven by emotional value and the integration of supply-side innovations, highlighting a shift towards personalized and diversified consumption [2][4][10] - On the demand side, there is a significant increase in consumption focused on emotional value, with "self-pleasing" consumption projected to grow by 40.6% in 2024, and social consumption, represented by sports and entertainment goods, expected to rise by 11.1% [2][10][23] - The supply side shows a notable trend of integration across different fields, with the IP industry experiencing an average growth rate of 13.1% from 2019 to 2024, and the tourism and cultural sectors also expanding significantly [2][32][39] Group 2 - The rise of new consumption is attributed to generational changes, economic characteristics, and upgrades in consumption supply, with younger consumers (ages 18-34) being the primary drivers of emotional consumption [4][49][50] - The youth demographic is increasingly focused on emotional value due to factors such as high unemployment rates and increased work pressure, leading to a greater emphasis on self-pleasing and home-based consumption [4][61][62] - Supply-side improvements, including increased R&D investments in sectors like automotive and electrical machinery, are facilitating the intelligent upgrade of consumption offerings [4][62][68] Group 3 - Future growth potential for new consumption is reinforced by economic growth, demographic shifts, and improvements in consumption supply, with service consumption expected to rise as GDP per capita increases [6][74][83] - The trend of smaller family units and declining birth rates in developed countries is likely to further enhance new consumption demand, as seen in the U.S. and Japan [7][74][75] - The importance of "consumption-related infrastructure" is being elevated, with government spending in education, healthcare, and social security expected to support the enhancement of new consumption supply [8][102][106]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as Neutral, indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and +5% relative to the CSI 300 index [12]. Core Insights - The steel industry experienced an overall decline on March 19, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.10% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.32% [2]. - Tangshan's steel enterprises have achieved full coverage of provincial-level green factories, marking a significant step towards green manufacturing in the region [5]. - The collaboration between China Steel Research and Zhongtang Special Steel aims to promote the intelligent and green transformation of the steel industry [5]. Market Performance - The top three gainers in the steel sector were Yongjin Co., Ltd. (+2.95%), Huada New Materials (+2.71%), and CITIC Special Steel (+1.95%) [3]. - The top three decliners were Honghai Technology (-14.01%), Shibibai (-12.45%), and Guisheng Co., Ltd. (-3.49%) [3]. Industry Data - Futures prices on March 19, 2025, showed declines in various steel products: rebar (-1.19%), wire rod (-0.68%), hot-rolled coil (-0.74%), iron ore (-2.12%), coke (-2.68%), and coking coal (-2.98%) [4]. - Current prices for steel products per ton are as follows: iron ore (744.17), wire rod (3388.29), hot-rolled coil (3360.91), rebar (3188.01), coke (1577.28), and coking coal (1041.63) [4].

Group 1: Business Performance - The overall business performance is stable and positive, with self-owned brand business showing steady growth. The brands "Mikfudi" and "Fuleijiate" achieved good sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival [3] - The trend towards high-end products is evident, with the company maintaining competitive advantages and benefiting from the expanding young consumer demographic and multi-pet households [3] - International business orders are stable, with ongoing development of new customers and clear advantages in supply chain and R&D [3] Group 2: Product Innovation - The upgrade of "Fuleijiate 2.0" focuses on precise nutrition from fresh meat, addressing traditional process pain points and enhancing nutritional control for different age stages of cats [4] - The "BARF 2.0" upgrade includes a new nutrient release process and a natural herbal formula, significantly improving digestive health for pets [4] Group 3: R&D and Technology - The company has established a research center early on, focusing on basic research for dogs and cats, and continuously improving R&D capabilities [5] - Collaboration with over ten domestic and international universities and research institutions enhances technological development and innovation [5] Group 4: Brand Strategy - The company has defined its brand strategy early, focusing on strengthening the core brand "Mikfudi" and enhancing the high-end brand "Fuleijiate" [5] - Future strategies include a focus on quality leadership, technological innovation, and optimizing brand structure to expand market share [5] Group 5: Talent Strategy - The company views talent as the core growth driver, implementing measures such as nationwide recruitment, equity incentives, and team structure optimization [5] - The establishment of a research center in Shanghai enhances the company's attractiveness to high-end R&D talent [5]