Core Viewpoint - The IMF indicates that many Asian central banks have room to lower interest rates to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on their economies [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The IMF has revised down its GDP forecasts for export-driven Asian economies due to increased uncertainty in trade policies since January [1] - The short-term economic outlook for the region has worsened significantly due to these uncertainties [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Flexibility - Low inflationary pressures provide Asian economies with some leeway to adjust interest rates [1] - Many countries in the region can consider easing monetary policy to buffer against external shocks, as inflation is mostly at or below target levels [1]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京4月24日电（崔凯）特朗普政府的关税政策，致使美国遭遇经济史上最为严峻的贸易不确定性。美 联储最新褐皮书报告表明，"围绕国际贸易政策的不确定性广泛存在"，虽然当下经济仍在"稳步扩张"，然而这种 不确定性"或将在未来数月内抑制增长势头"。 褐皮书显示，自2025年2月底起，美国经济活动近乎零变化，仅有五个地区报告稍有增长，三个地区维持原状， 其余四个地区的经济活动则呈下降态势。制造业尤为疲弱，三分之二的地区表示制造业活动无明显变化或有所下 滑。 报告中"不确定性"一词出现达80次，与关税相关的表述高达107处，远超以往水平，这表明企业因政策不明晰而 普遍暂停或放缓投资、招聘等经济活动。 近期，美联储多位官员对特朗普政府关税政策可能产生的经济影响表示担忧。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克称，当前条件仍支持继续缩减资产负债表，但在高度不确定的环境下，并非改变货币政 策的时机。她强调，需保持耐心，在采取利率行动前需观察更多数据变化。 美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒指出，关税可能给物价带来上行压力，并产生比预期更大的经济影响。库格勒认 为，经济面临高度不确定性，通胀有上行风险，就业则有下行风险。 里士 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月2 4日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简 称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"以来的第一份《褐皮书》，因此非常受 到市场的关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性， 几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出， 企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 本次 《褐皮书》的与众不同之处 和以后相比，美联储本次发布的《褐皮书》有以下显著特点： 一是"关税"提及频率创历史新高。 褐皮书报告有107次提到"关税"，是上一期的两倍多，远超特朗普第一任期峰值（51次）。89次提及"不确定性"，显示 关税政策反复无常对企业信心冲击极大。 二是经济前景显著恶化。 多个地区因关税不确定性导致前景"显著恶化"，企业普遍采取缩短定价周期、加收关税附加费等临时措施以应对成本压力。 三是消费者行为扭曲。 消费者赶在关税涨价前抢购汽车和非耐用品，但非汽车类消费整体萎缩，国际游客数量锐减。 四是就业市场分化。 政府职位及依赖财政的机构裁员，私营企业招聘放缓甚至酝酿裁员，反映出特朗普政府缩减联邦开支的影响。 《褐皮书》揭示的内容将产生哪些潜在 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月24日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简 称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"以来的第一份《褐皮书》，因此非常受 到市场的关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性， 几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出， 企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 本次 《褐皮书》的与众不同之处 和以后相比，美联储本次发布的《褐皮书》有以下显著特点： 一是"关税"提及频率创历史新高。 褐皮书报告有107次提到"关税"，是上一期的两倍多，远超特朗普第 一任期峰值（51次）。89次提及"不确定性"，显示关税政策反复无常对企业信心冲击极大。 二是经济前景显著恶化。 多个地区因关税不确定性导致前景"显著恶化"，企业普遍采取缩短定价周 期、加收关税附加费等临时措施以应对成本压力。 三是消费者行为扭曲。 消费者赶在关税涨价前抢购汽车和非耐用品，但非汽车类消费整体萎缩，国际 游客数量锐减。 四是就业市场分化。 政府职位及依赖财政的机构裁员，私营企业招聘放缓甚至酝酿裁员，反映出特朗 普政府缩减联邦开支的影响。 《褐皮书》报告里揭示的内容将产 ...

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a significant deterioration in economic outlook across several regions due to increasing uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs [1] - The report mentions tariffs over 100 times, highlighting the pervasive concern over international trade policy uncertainty across all 12 Federal Reserve districts [1] - Businesses are experiencing rising input costs due to tariffs, with many planning to pass these costs onto consumers [1][2] Group 2 - Employment levels in the U.S. remain stable or slightly increased, but there is a noted decline in government jobs, reflecting cost-cutting measures by the Trump administration [2] - Consumer behavior shows a rush to purchase vehicles and non-durable goods before anticipated price increases due to tariffs, while overall non-automotive consumption has declined [2] - Manufacturing activity is mixed, with two-thirds of regions reporting little change or a decline, while the energy sector shows slight growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant. With the easing of overseas trade frictions and market expectations for stimulus policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to take short - term long positions with a light position [2]. - Economic downward pressure still supports gold. The downside space of gold is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The supply of coking coal remains relatively stable, and demand is high. The market expects coke prices to continue rising, but terminal inventories are low. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The cost of steel provides some support, but the lack of sustained demand restricts the rebound of steel prices. With external uncertainties, steel prices may fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The supply and demand of live pigs are in a continuous game. Short - term prices are adjusted, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The decline of the external market has stopped and rebounded, and the increase in purchases supports the palm oil market. However, the downstream demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [5]. - The auction of soybeans by protein factories is active, and the reduction of market surplus grains boosts market confidence. However, auctions may curb rapid price increases in the short term. Soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - The marginal loosening of the capital side is beneficial to the bond market, but the market still has a wait - and - see attitude towards the fundamentals. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [8]. - Trump's remarks on reducing tariffs on Chinese goods boost risk assets, but the fundamentals of silver are bearish. Before the Fed cuts interest rates, silver is unlikely to have a trending market [8]. - Concerns about the implementation of compensatory production cuts by OPEC + have led to a decline in crude oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The demand for PTA is under pressure, and it follows the fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - The international raw material prices of natural rubber have fallen, and the tire start - up rate has declined. The market support is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak consolidation trend [10]. - The cost of methanol is stable, and the domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is decreasing, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][12]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is tepid, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - The supply of caustic soda is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. Summaries by Variety Iron Ore - From April 14 - 20, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,218.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons from the previous period. The inventory is slightly lower than the average level since the beginning of the year [2]. Gold - On April 23, local time, the Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is widespread uncertainty in international trade policies, and the prospects in multiple regions have significantly deteriorated [2]. Coking Coal - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 63.01%, an increase of 1.11% from the previous period; the daily average output was 53.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 271.33 million tons, a decrease of 2.58 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 181.68 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons [4]. Rebar - On April 23, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 to 2,990 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,323 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Live Pigs - On April 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.47, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.43. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - From July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 period were 2.3 million tons, compared with 2.87 million tons in the same period of the previous year. China and India's demand for palm oil may increase due to its continuous discount compared with soybean oil [5]. Soybeans - As of the end of the 16th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 4.251 million tons, an increase of 625,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 3.768 million tons, an increase of 584,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties declined collectively. The overnight variety declined by 8.3 BP to 1.626%; the 7 - day variety declined by 2.6 BP to 1.644%; the 14 - day variety declined by 2.8 BP to 1.772%; the 1 - month variety declined by 0.5 BP to 1.749% [7][8]. Silver - Trump said that the current tariffs on Chinese goods in the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. He also said that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chairman [8]. Crude Oil - The EIA report showed that in the week ending April 18, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 244,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory was - 4.476 million barrels, the domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 23.46 million barrels per day, and the EIA crude oil production implied demand data was 19.01 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests in determining oil production levels [9]. PTA - In the week of April 22, the PTA load decreased to 75.4%; the polyester load increased slightly to 93.8%, and the increase in the bottle - chip load made up for the reduction in the production of filament and staple fiber [9]. Rubber - Thailand is gradually transitioning to the tapping season, and production is expected to increase significantly in mid - May. Vietnam's production areas are waiting for precipitation and may start tapping at the end of April. In Hainan, raw material prices have fallen, and private factories have resumed purchasing rubber, with an increase in glue output. In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a slight decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tires in China was 283 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%. The total export volume of Chinese rubber tires was 2.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The methanol operating rate was 83.37%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%. A 250,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yankuang Guojiao was under maintenance for about a week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.25%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 463,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,400 tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 309,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 260 tons; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 302,700 tons, a weekly increase of 28,300 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country was 1,413 yuan/ton, showing a slow downward trend. The soda ash operating rate was 88.9%, an increase of 1%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of float glass in the country was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country was 65.078 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% [12]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong both decreased, and the chlor - alkali profit was 302 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 82.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The chlor - alkali plant of Anhui Huasu is expected to resume production on April 26. The weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 420,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.83%. The weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 80%, a decrease of 2%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.2%, a decrease of 5.39% [13].

今日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简称《褐皮书》），根据统计，在这份报告中，总共107次提到"关税"一词，与"不确定性"有关的 词汇出现89次。 随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性，几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。《褐皮书》显示，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，但国际贸 易政策的不确定性在各份报告中普遍存在。仅有五个地区经济活动略有增长，三个地区报告经济活动基本保持不变，其余四个地区报告经济活动略有下降。 同时，各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出，企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。许多公司报告称，其供应商已发出成本上涨的通知，大多数企业 表示将计划把更高的价格转嫁给消费者。企业报告称已增加关税附加费或缩短定价周期，以应对不确定的贸易政策。 随着特朗普"认怂"，4月24日，昨夜美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.07%报39606.57点，标普500指数涨1.67%报5375.86点，纳指涨2.5%报16708.05点。、 具体来看，科技七巨头中，马斯克相关动作的影响持续扩散，特斯拉涨超5%。其他六家普遍上涨，脸书涨4%。 | 英伟达 | 102.7100 | 3.86% | 3. ...

根据美联储褐皮书对各地区联系人的调查，近几周来，特朗普对美国贸易伙伴关税政策的不确定性尤为 突出。 周三发布的该项调查显示："自上一份报告以来，经济活动变化不大，但国际贸易政策方面的不确定性 在所有地区中普遍存在。" 在美联储的这份报告中，"关税" 一词被提及了107次，是上一份褐皮书中提及次数的两倍多。"不确定" 这个词以各种形式出现了89次。报告称，随着经济不确定性——尤其是围绕关税的不确定性增加，几个 地区的经济前景"显著恶化"。 亚特兰大联储利用在4月14日或之前收集的信息编写了最新版的褐皮书。该报告包含了美联储12个地区 联储各自对商业状况的评论和轶事，这些信息直接从企业和其他联系人处收集而来。美联储官员将于5 月6日至7日举行下一次会议。 各地区的物价都有所上涨，企业预计由于征收关税，投入成本将会升高。许多企业都报告称收到了供应 商关于成本上升的通知，并且大多数企业都表示有计划将更高的价格转嫁给消费者。 报告显示："企业报告称，为应对不确定的贸易政策，他们增加了关税附加费或缩短了定价期限。大多 数企业预计会将额外成本转嫁给客户。还有企业报告称——尤其是面向消费者的企业——由于部分行业 需求依然低迷 ...

美联储发出最新警告。 今日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告，其中显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不 确定性，几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。根据统计，在这份报告中，总共107次提到"关税"一词，与"不确定性"有关的 词汇出现89次。 另外，近期关于解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的风波持续搅动美国市场。美国总统特朗普最新表示："我认为鲍威尔不 降息是在犯错误，我可能会给鲍威尔打电话。" 值得一提的是，在此之前，特朗普表示他"从没有打算"解除鲍威尔的职务。据知情人士透露，特朗普改变主意与美 国财政部长贝森特和商务部长卢特尼克有关，知情人士称，他们警告特朗普罢免鲍威尔或引发市场动荡和法律纠 纷。 美联储重磅发布 北京时间4月24日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"后的第一 份《褐皮书》，因此备受市场关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性，几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格 均有所上涨，大多数地区指出，企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 在美联储最新的《褐皮书》中，"关税"一词共被提及了107次，是上一期《褐皮书》两倍以上的 ...

另外，美国人出行减少，外国游客来美人数也下降。经济学家估算，这一趋势可能令美国旅游业全年损 失数百亿美元。 报告还指出，就业整体略有增长，但企业招聘意愿普遍谨慎。尽管私营企业新增岗位数量有所上升，政 府部门以及依赖联邦资金的机构就业人数则出现下降。 在美国总统特朗普对全球实施关税后，美联储发布的经济形势报告显示，美国经济仍在稳步扩张， 但"普遍存在的不确定性"可能在未来几个月内抑制增长势头。智通财经APP获悉，周三，褐皮书报告指 出："自上一期报告以来，经济活动变化不大，但围绕国际贸易政策的不确定性在各地区报告中普遍存 在。" 褐皮书每年发布八次，是美联储评估经济状况、决定是否调整利率的重要依据。本次报告是自2月底以 来的首次调查，同时也是特朗普政府大规模加征关税后的第一份褐皮书。 报告指出，"由于经济不确定性上升，尤其是与关税相关的不确定性，多个地区的经济前景明显恶化。" 特朗普在本月初宣布关税政策，被称为"解放日"行动，引发自上世纪30年代以来最严重的全球贸易战。 这场贸易争端令美国家庭和企业充满疑虑。经济学家警告称，贸易摩擦若持续，可能推高通胀、增加失 业，甚至引发经济衰退。 在关税正式实施之前，为规避 ...