谈及经济和通胀形势，植田和男表示，当前日本经济呈温和复苏态势，物价方面未出现大幅波动，不过 通胀预期仍未稳定达到2%的目标水平。他强调，若经济前景符合预期，将适时考虑加息政策。植田和 男还关注到一些外部因素对通胀趋势的潜在影响，如食品价格上涨以及中东地区冲突，若持续发酵，可 能对趋势通胀产生二次影响，为此，日本央行将密切跟踪中东局势动态。此外，他重申贸易政策存在高 度不确定性，认为其影响预计更为显著，当前全球与情绪相关的数据走弱，不少观点认为今年下半年经 济数据不容乐观，在此背景下，全面、深入评估广泛数据和信息，对准确把握经济形势和制定合理政策 至关重要。 在6月16日至17日的议息会议上，日本央行决定维持0.5%的政策利率不变，展现鸽派政策立场。同时， 下调经济增长预测及通货膨胀预期，指出全球经济体贸易政策不确定性高，给日本经济复苏和物价稳定 带来下行压力。日本央行强调需密切监控外汇市场波动、金融市场动态以及国际贸易政策变化对国内经 济与价格走势的潜在影响。尽管近期通胀率有所上升，但央行决策者倾向于在核心通胀率长期稳固接近 2%目标水平前，维持当前宽松货币政策立场。 日本央行购债计划也有调整。近期宣布，在2 ...

【导读】日本央行宣布利率不变、放缓缩表 见习记者储是 本周全球将迎来"超级央行周"，美联储利率决议备受关注，日本、英国、瑞士央行决策也是焦点。 6月17日，亚洲交易时段，日本央行发布的一份声明显示，日本央行维持基准利率不变，决定明年以较慢的速度削减购债规模，在市场波动加剧后展现谨 慎态度。 日本央行：利率不变，明年将放缓削减购债步伐 根据日本央行周二的声明，在为期两天的会议结束后，行长植田和男领导的央行理事会维持0.5%的基准政策利率不变。 日本央行也表示，计划从下一财年开始，将每月购债规模从目前的每季4000亿日元削减至每季2000亿日元（13.4亿美元）。 市场表现上，日元汇率、股市微涨。截至发稿，日经225指数涨幅维持在0.60%上下，日元兑美元维持在144.60上下。 日经225指数止跌企稳来源：Wind 本周"利率周"前，日本央行称，必须继续努力，进一步促进日本国内对政府债券的所有权，以避免供需失衡导致长期日债利率飙升。 近段时间日本债市动荡，超长期债券收益率升至历史高位，债券票面价值下跌出现浮亏，并且国债发行拍卖遇冷。 图为日本30年期国债收益率曲线，5月21日创下新高 工银国际首席经济学家程实认 ...

【导读】日本央行宣布利率不变、放缓缩表 6月17日，亚洲交易时段，日本央行发布 的 一份 声明 显示，日本央行维持基准利率不变， 决定明年以较慢的速度削减购债规模，在市场波动加剧后展现谨慎态度。 日本央行：利率不变，明年将放缓削减购债步伐 根据日本央行周二的声明，在为期两天的会议结束后，行长植田和男领导的央行理事会维持 0.5% 的 基准政策利率不变。 日本央行也表示，计划从下一财年开始，将每月购债规模从目前的每季4000亿日元削减至每 季2000亿日元（13.4亿美元）。 市场表现上，日元汇率 、 股市微涨 。 截至发稿，日经 225 指数涨幅维持在 0 . 60% 上 下，日元兑美元维持在 144 . 60 上下 。 见习记者 储是 本周全球将迎来"超级央行周"，美联储利率决议备受关注，日本、英国、瑞士央行决策也是 焦点。 日经 225 指数止跌企稳 来源 ： W ind 日本债市近期动荡， 市场 关注 央行缩表节奏 本周"利率周"前，日本央行称，必须继续努力，进一步促进日本国内对政府债券的所有权， 以避免供需失衡导致长期日债利率飙升。 近段时间日本债市动荡，超长期债券收益率升至历史高位，债券票面价值下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to delay its interest rate hike plans for this year due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, with economists predicting the next rate increase will occur in the first quarter of 2026, with a potential increase of 25 basis points [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - A slight majority of economists (52%) expect that the Bank of Japan will maintain borrowing costs at 0.50% by the end of this year, a shift from previous expectations of a rise to 0.75% [1]. - Over three-quarters of respondents (40 out of 51) predict at least one rate hike by the end of March next year, with 37% forecasting the next hike in January 2025 [2]. - The interest rate futures market currently reflects an expectation of approximately 17 basis points of rate increases within this year [1]. Group 2: Government Bond Purchases - A majority of economists (17 out of 31) believe that the Bank of Japan will slow down its current quarterly reduction of approximately 4 trillion yen in government bond purchases after April next year [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan still holds about half of the outstanding Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), but has begun to reduce its purchases to move away from decades of large-scale stimulus [3]. Group 3: Long-term Bond Issuance - 75% of economists (21 out of 28) anticipate that the government will reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, with concerns over rising debt levels and declining demand from traditional buyers [3]. - The government is reportedly considering repurchasing some ultra-long-term bonds issued during low-interest periods and plans to cut the issuance of these bonds in response to rapidly rising yields [3][4].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | --- | --- | | 从日债到美债：全球期限溢价的涟漪 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 作为全球第二大债券市场，日本超长债收益率的快速上涨，折射出全球 债券市场在财政扩张与央行政策分化背景下的结构性变化。在关税贸易 政策不确定性持续的当下，市场对各国财政政策进一步宽松的预期正推 高风险溢价，或预示着全球长端利率重估周期的来临。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 年初至今 | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 24,181 | 1.61 | 17.43 | | 国指 | 8,780 | 1.74 | 20.44 | | 上 A | 3,563 | 0.43 | 1.42 | | 上 B | 257 | 0.26 | -3.92 | | 深 A | 2,120 | 0.93 | 3.53 | | 深 B | 1,188 | -0.49 | -2.07 | | 道指 | 42, ...

Global Macro - The rapid rise in Japanese super-long government bond yields since mid-May 2025 has triggered turbulence in the global bond market, with the 40-year bond yield surpassing 3.68%, the highest since its issuance in 2007 [2][6][23] - The increase in yields reflects structural changes in the global bond market amid fiscal expansion and diverging central bank policies, with expectations of further fiscal easing pushing up risk premiums [2][6][23] Japanese Long-term Bond Yield Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent rise in Japanese long-term bond yields is the gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which has created conditions for the repricing of super-long government bonds [3][24] - A structural imbalance in supply and demand has exacerbated market volatility, as the absence of the Bank of Japan as a "super buyer" has removed crucial market support [3][30] - The demand side is also under pressure, with rising interest rate expectations leading domestic institutional investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further weakening buying power [3][37] Economic Challenges and Policy Dilemmas - Japan's economy faces dual challenges of weak domestic demand and external tariff shocks, with the central bank caught in a policy dilemma [3][52] - The government debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as rising long-term bond yields increase borrowing costs [3][60] Spillover Effects on Global Bond Markets - The volatility in Japanese long-term bond yields has significant spillover effects on the U.S. Treasury market, with Japanese insurers and pension funds potentially exerting structural selling pressure on U.S. bonds [3][64] - The global bond market is undergoing a systematic reassessment of risk premiums, with Japan's long-term bond yields acting as a "ballast" in the global interest rate system [3][70] U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Short-term risks for U.S. Treasury yields are notable, with expectations of a resolution to the debt ceiling issue leading to substantial net issuance of $300-400 billion within 2-3 months [3][91] - The anticipated fiscal policies under the Trump administration may further pressure U.S. Treasury yields, with a projected range of 4.0-5.0% for the 10-year yield by the end of 2025 [3][105]

智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的日本最新工资数据对寻求进一步加息以推进货币政策正常化的日本央行而言是一个积极的进展。数据显示，日本4月基本工 资同比增长2.2%，高于3月经修正后的1.4%;名义工资同比增长2.3%，不及经济学家预期的2.6%。一项更稳定的工资趋势指标则显示，全职工人的工资同比 上涨了2.5%，连续第20个月保持在2%或以上(该指标避免了抽样问题，也不包括奖金和加班费)。但不利的一方面是，实际薪资收入同比下降了1.8%，大于 市场预期的1.6%降幅。 在年度劳资谈判之后，工资前景普遍乐观。日本企业连续第二年承诺将工资提高5%以上。据日本最大工会联合会Rengo的最新统计，一些工人获得了30多年 来最大幅度的加薪。根据日本央行以往研究，这些加薪将在6月左右的工资单中更全面地体现出来。 不过，也有一些经济学家警告称，美国总统特朗普的关税可能压缩企业利润，限制部分企业为员工提供更慷慨薪资的能力。日本央行在其最新的展望报告中 指出，名义工资增长的速度可能会因企业利润下降而在未来放缓，但并未进一步说明具体背景。 Bloomberg Economics经济学家Taro Kimura指出，前几个月的数据受到闰 ...

新华财经北京6月5日电根据日本政府于周四公布的最新数据，日本4月份的实际工资连续第四个月呈现 下滑趋势。这一现象主要归因于持续的通货膨胀，导致工资上涨速度未能跟上物价上涨的步伐，即使企 业已尝试通过加薪来缓解员工生活成本的压力。 在全球经济不确定性增加的大背景下，特别是美国总统特朗普时期全面关税政策的影响下，日本的工资 数据进一步加剧了市场对于该国经济增长前景的担忧。日本的政策制定者和经济学家们普遍担心，全球 贸易紧张局势可能会削弱现有的薪资增长动力，并对日本央行实现货币政策正常化的努力构成挑战。 数据显示，经通胀调整后的实际工资在4月份较上年同期下降了1.8%，与3月份的降幅相同，而2月份则 下降了1.5%。值得注意的是，用于计算实际工资的消费者价格指数（包括新鲜食品但不包括房租）同 比增幅虽从3月份的4.2%轻微降至4月份的4.1%，但已连续五个月保持在约4%的高位。 尽管如此，劳工部的一位官员指出，"虽然工资确实在稳步上升，但物价水平仍然非常高。" 数据显示，4月份的基本工资（常规工资）同比增长2.2%，为四个月以来的最大涨幅；加班费增长 0.8%，逆转了3月份的下降趋势；特殊津贴则增加了4.1%。平均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields, attributing it to factors such as improving employment, rising wages, and inflationary pressures, alongside supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [2][8][15]. Group 1: Long-term Japanese Government Bond Yields - The auction of 1 trillion yen 20-year bonds on May 20, 2025, saw a bid-to-cover ratio drop to 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference of 1.14, the highest since 1987, leading to a sharp increase in 30-year bond yields to 2.74% [1][6]. - The yield spread between 30-year and 10-year Japanese bonds increased significantly to 126 basis points, placing it in the 99.3 percentile since 2000, indicating a steepening of the yield curve [1][6]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yields - The Japanese labor market has shown consistent improvement since 2021, with a declining unemployment rate and rising labor participation, contributing to wage increases and inflation that have exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for two consecutive years [2][8][12]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to initiate a rate hike cycle in March 2024 to address rising inflation and normalize monetary policy, which has been extremely accommodative for 25 years [12][15]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalances - The supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market is a primary driver of the recent yield increases, with the Bank of Japan reducing its bond purchases, leading to liquidity risks in the market [15][22]. - Major Japanese life insurance companies are facing significant unrealized losses on their bond holdings, prompting them to reconsider their long-term bond positions, further exacerbating liquidity issues [22][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming bond auctions from May 28 to June 5, 2025, for 40-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds are expected to impact the overall bond market, with potential for continued upward pressure on yield spreads [3][24]. - The actions of the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance in mid-June will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Japanese bond yields, as they seek to balance currency appreciation, economic recovery, and market normalization [3][24]. Group 5: Impact on Global Markets - The ongoing rise in Japanese bond yields may influence global bond markets, as the interconnectedness of developed economies means that changes in Japanese yields could lead to similar movements in other countries' long-term bond rates [5][41]. - A reversal in the carry trade, where investors borrow in yen to invest in higher-yielding dollar assets, could lead to capital outflows from U.S. equities, increasing volatility in those markets [5][41].

Group 1 - The core reason for the significant rise in long-term Japanese bond yields is attributed to the recovery of the Japanese labor market and the subsequent increase in wage growth, which has driven inflation upward. The unemployment rate in Japan has been declining rapidly, and the labor participation rate has been increasing, leading to a substantial rise in wage growth since 2023 [14][19][20] - The issuance of 1 trillion yen 20-year government bonds on May 20, 2025, saw a bid-to-cover ratio drop to 2.5 times, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference that surged to 1.14, the highest since 1987. This resulted in a significant increase in the 30-year Japanese bond yield to 2.74%, causing the 30Y-10Y yield spread to rise sharply to 126 basis points, placing it in the 99.3 percentile since 2000 [3][8][14] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that the upcoming auctions of 40-year, 10-year, and 30-year Japanese government bonds from May 28 to June 5 may lead to further increases in yield spreads due to heightened liquidity risks in the long-term bond market and sustained high inflation levels [30][31] - The Bank of Japan's actions in mid-June will be crucial for the trajectory of Japanese bond yields, as they aim to balance currency appreciation, economic recovery, and normalization of the bond market [31][32] Group 3 - The current state of carry trade is influenced by the ongoing dynamics between Japanese and U.S. bond markets. Despite the significant rise in Japanese bond yields, the 10Y U.S.-Japan yield spread has remained relatively stable, indicating that carry trade opportunities still exist [34][38] - If the 10Y Japanese bond yield rises faster than the 10Y U.S. bond yield, it could lead to increased volatility in global bond and equity markets, as the interconnectedness of developed market yields may trigger a broader rise in rates [48][50]