Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **U.S. economy**, particularly the **employment market**, **inflation**, and **monetary policy** implications due to recent economic data and political influences [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Weakness** - The U.S. employment market shows signs of fatigue, with a rising unemployment rate and a significant downward revision of previous job growth figures, leading to an average of only **50,000 new jobs** added over the past three months [2][6]. - The labor participation rate changes contribute to the overall weakness in supply and demand within the job market [2]. 2. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations** - Market expectations for a rate cut in Q4 have surged, with a **95% probability** of a **25 basis point** cut before October, driven by the weak employment and inflation data [1][2]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on the real estate and manufacturing sectors [5]. 3. **Inflation Trends** - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April, prices of goods heavily reliant on imports, such as furniture and appliances, have risen significantly [3]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is projected to increase from **16.5%** to **17.5%**, which may further elevate inflationary pressures [3]. 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** - Political pressures for looser monetary policy are increasing, especially with the potential for new Federal Reserve board members who may favor rate cuts [5]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data will significantly influence the market's pricing of September rate cut expectations [5]. 5. **Consumer Spending Dynamics** - Consumer spending constitutes **70%** of the U.S. economy, with high-income households showing resilience in their spending habits [6]. - Fixed-rate loans dominate the debt landscape, minimizing the impact of the current rate hike cycle on overall consumer debt pressure [6]. 6. **Economic Outlook** - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "very good" state to a "not so good" state, indicating a slowdown but not an imminent recession [7]. - The narrative around the economy remains unchanged, with expectations of a gradual weakening rather than a linear decline into recession [7]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest more clearly in the data by October, as inventory replenishment continues in various sectors [3][4]. - The sensitivity of middle and low-income groups to price changes may mitigate inflation transmission pressures compared to previous years [4].

当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示将在本周内提名新的美联储理事，以接替将在8月8日提前离任的阿德里亚娜· 库格勒。多家外媒报道称，特朗普有可能会提名他心目中的下任美联储主席进入理事会。 刘英："特朗普可以任命与白宫意见相近，也就是当下倾向于较快降息或者较大幅度降息的人担任新理事，进而影响 美联储的决策。继任者有可能想比较快地降息，去满足特朗普政府的要求。而美联储主席鲍威尔则可能会根据数 据、根据美国经济增长的客观情况来安排降息与否。所以在一些观点方面有可能会出现分歧，有可能导致决策复杂 化。" 而关于鲍威尔继任者的具体人选，特朗普5日表示，候选人包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈塞特等人。 特朗普称前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特都在考虑之列（彭博社报道截图） 在刘英看来，最终谁能取得这一职位，取决于谁的立场更符合特朗普政府的经济政策基调。 刘英："前美联储理事凯文·沃什在美联储的决策里面有更多的经验，所以他作为美联储主席是有可能的。但另外一 位，凯文·哈塞特其实更了解白宫的经济政策走向。所以（谁继任）不好说。更关键的是要看他们两位谁比较靠近特 朗 ...

转向国内，特朗普面临的挑战亦相当严峻。他在8月2日宣布开除美国劳工部统计局局长，并指责她操控数据，称之为一场"骗局"。这一举动缘于美国劳工部 公布的新就业数据，与特朗普期望的"赢学"相左。数据显示，新增就业人数仅为7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11万人，而失业率则有所上升，这些数据表明 美国的就业市场正在降温，与特朗普声称的关税战带来的就业增长相悖。 在八月初的几天里，特朗普的处境可谓相当不佳，不论是国内还是国际的局势都呈现出负面趋势。这种压力让特朗普不得不重新审视与中国之间的关系，因 为他意识到，该困境中多少与中国有着密切的关联。那么，究竟特朗普面临了什么样的困境呢？ 首先，一个重大的噩耗来源于他自己放出去的消息。特朗普再次调整了与俄罗斯签署和平协议的最后期限，把原本定于五十天后的日期提前至8月8日之前。 这个日期的选择非常巧妙，正好在特朗普计划于8月1日实施的全面关税政策生效之日，虽然有一个七天的缓冲期，实际上也就是说，真正的关税增收将从8 月7日才开始执行。这几天实际上成为其他国家的最后一次机会。 而特朗普所称的"二级关税"，无疑又是给中国施加压力的手段。在第三轮中美经贸谈判结束后，美国财政部长贝森特再次 ...

铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20510，基差-50，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | 地方 地方 | ...

据"绵阳网警"8月5日消息，7月22日，江油市发生一未成年人在校外被辱骂、殴打警情，警方已依法对违法人员作出了治安处罚，并按程序对其中两名违法人 员开展送专门学校矫治教育的工作。 其间，网上出现"江油市公安局副局长的女儿打的人""施暴者父亲为律师""施暴者亲妈是江油市一级警督"等信息。经核实，3名违法人员的父母分别有2人无 业、2人在省外务工、1人为本地售货员、1人为本地外卖员，所传违法人员父母职业身份信息为谣言。 经查，2025年8月4日，网民丁某（女，41岁）、杨某琳（女，27岁）看到网传施暴视频后，为博眼球编造谣言发于微信群和社交平台，引发公开传播扩散， 严重扰乱公共秩序，造成恶劣社会影响。 目前，丁某、杨某琳已被公安机关依法行政处罚。 辟谣。 江阳木成牛朝凌 他泰有多八位,秋早到荷达云多八个 到20分钟出来 据说施暴家长急汇油市公安局副局长 (待核实)被施暴女子父母是聋哑人和残疾人视频可 草解 事情 见正在跪求江油书记解决问 clu 教育不解民情 下定 L # 1 台前 # 周岁犯罪 在演十 BE AN HE 【中华人民实和国际资】 第十三条规定 已满十六周岁的人犯罪,应当负刑事责 任。 已演十四周岁 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market saw a significant increase on Monday, with the Dow Jones recovering losses from the previous trading day and the Nasdaq index rising nearly 2% [1] - All three major US stock indices recorded their largest gains since May 27, as investors opted to buy on dips [2] - The Nasdaq Technology ETF rose over 2%, while the Nasdaq 100-related ETFs increased by more than 1.5% [1][2] Group 2 - Employment data fell short of expectations, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate cut in September [2]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20470，基差-55，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

当地时间8月4日，受乐观市场情绪提振，欧美股市全线收涨，德国DAX指数、法国CAC40指数，道指、标普500指数均涨 超1%，纳指涨近2%。上周美国非农数据再添美国经济放缓迹象，市场押注美联储将实施降息救市，这引发了资金逢低买 入，推动美股大涨。其中，芯片股领涨，英伟达股价再创收盘历史新高。 与此同时，美欧贸易关系出现缓和信号，带动欧洲股市整体反弹。欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨1.42%报 23757.69点，法国CAC40指数涨1.14%报7632.01点，英国富时100指数涨0.66%报9128.3点。 具体来看，美股大型科技股多数上涨。个股方面，英伟达涨逾3%，脸书涨逾3%，谷歌涨逾3%，微软涨逾2%，苹果涨 0.48%，亚马逊跌逾1%。其中，英伟达收涨3.62%，报每股180美元，刷新了上周三的收盘纪录。 日韩股市同样在8月5日双双高开。日经225指数高开0.57%，报40521.0点。韩国综指高开1.25%，报3187.15点。截至发稿 时，日经225指数和韩国综合指数分别上涨0.41%、1.9%。 欧美股市集体收涨 英伟达再创收盘新高 当地时间周一，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]