Group 1 - The focus of the market is on the potential 100% tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada if a trade agreement is reached with China, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is a key point of interest this week, especially amid escalating global geopolitical tensions [1] - A series of important economic data releases this week will provide clearer insights into the global economic situation, which investors are closely monitoring [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the market will pay attention to Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, which is expected to show improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the German economy [3] - The U.S. is set to release November durable goods orders, with expectations of a significant improvement to 3.7% month-on-month, up from -2.2% [3] Group 3 - On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, with expectations for a slight improvement above 90, reflecting consumer sentiment towards the economy [4] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected to remain negative for the 11th consecutive month, but a slight improvement is anticipated, suggesting a gradual recovery in manufacturing [4] Group 4 - On Wednesday, Australia's CPI for December is expected to rise to 3.5% year-on-year, maintaining expectations for potential interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] - The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, with most market participants anticipating stability unless trade negotiations with the U.S. falter [6] Group 5 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate, with market participants looking for insights from Chairman Powell's press conference regarding future policy directions [7] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, emphasizing a cautious stance amid geopolitical tensions [7] Group 6 - On Friday, Japan will release December employment data, while Germany and the Eurozone will report January unemployment rates, expected to remain at 6.3% [8] - The Eurozone's Q4 GDP is projected to slow from 1.4% to 1.3% year-on-year, with the ECB noting stronger-than-expected economic resilience driven by domestic demand [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: January 26 - 30, 2026 [1] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but short - term risks of high - level corrections exist [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [8]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is strongly rising, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Driving Factors: Last week's strong rise was driven by geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, a weak dollar, and interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - Support: Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support [7]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators and policy uncertainties [7]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy path and global macroeconomic data [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a resistance level of 1045 - 1050 yuan/gram and a support level of 1020 - 1025 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a support level of 1085 - 1095 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [11]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, at a sensitive position in the head. There is a possibility of trend reversal. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a certain risk of a market turn [12]. 1.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold price difference between domestic and foreign markets [18][21][23][25][28] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds drive the price up. In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up, but short - term correction risks exist [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [32]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is strongly rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Driving Factors: Last week's price increase was driven by geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds [32]. - Support: In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up due to the growth of green industry demand, continuous supply - demand gaps, and asset allocation diversification [32]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators, ETF reductions, and policy uncertainties [32]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy and global manufacturing PMI [32]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2604 was trading at a high level, with a resistance level of 23,200 - 23,700 yuan and a support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is trading at a high level, with a support level of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/kg. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [36]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, possibly near the end of the trend. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, with large capital inflows and increased attention. The external market had a significant pre - opening increase [37]. 2.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver price difference between domestic and foreign markets [43][46][48]

矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 风险提示：数据来源：wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个 股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表 现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提 及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收 益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金。黄金的避 险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上 ...

据交易所数据显示，铜陵有色连续两个交易日涨停，晋级2连板。该股今日于10：19封涨停，成交额 49.97亿元，换手率6.11%。金融界App AI线索挖掘：近期 有色金属板块整体表现活跃，宏观经济温和 复苏、全球商品周期持续以及降息预期等多重因素共振，市场对有色板块的关注度提升，板块内相关个 股受到资金关注。 风险提示：连板股波动剧烈，注意追高风险，理性投资！（注：以上由AI基于交易 所等公开数据生成，内容不构成投资建议。） ...

与此同时，截至9时30分，美元指数报97.1876。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）1月26日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘上涨，报 6.9579，前一交易日16时30分收盘报6.9642。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报6.9525。 同日，人民币对美元中间价上调86点，报6.9843。 中金公司研报认为，本周市场将重点关注美联储1月FOMC会议，虽然预计美联储会按兵不动，但其有 关美国劳动力市场以及通胀的最新判断，可能会对市场对未来的降息预期产生关键影响。另外，美国对 格陵兰政策的最新进展同样值得关注。预计美元会继续面临在中长期维度上的下行压力。 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续突破历 史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 金 衡盎 司 ， SLV 白 银 ETF 持仓增加 544,084.20 盎司。 周三，美国 12 月成屋签约销售指数月率 -9.3%，预期 0.4%，前值 3.30%。美国 10 月营建支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.10%。 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 ...

风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 24 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260124 周报：贵金属价格创历史新高，基本面 推动锂价上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美债遭遇抛售,贵金属加速上涨。本周贵金属再度加速上涨， 突破历史新高，其中COMEX黄金接近5000美元/盎司，COMEX白银突破100 美元/盎司大关。1月20日，全球债市遭遇集体抛售，美债和日债领跌，日 债收益率历史性突破4%关口，为三十余年首次。欧洲多国宣布抛售美债， 10年期美国国债收益率攀升引发市场避险情绪并导致对于贵金属的配置需 求激增。丹麦表示将在月底前清仓所持全部1亿美国国债，引发多国连锁反 应。短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而 言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄 金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄 金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集 海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个 ...

朋友们，大家周末好，金银大宗市场已现了空前盛况，正加速上行；多头高位再恒高的状态，出现了历 史逼空状态。此时多一份冷静，超预期状态短期不会持续太久。5000关口基本绕不开话题，多空重要分 歧点，不会太远，也不会低估，接受5字头出现或短期消失，习惯就好了。 前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 昨日探底拉升稳住5均线继续收大阳，连续五天的大阳单边强势拉升，直接即将逼近5000关口，这也是 周初指出，黄金的走势轨迹已不再是前几周的震荡上行，而是步入单边连阳强势阶段，那么单边拉升过 程中，也要谨慎拉的过快而远离短期均线所带来的风险，当前来看，还并不算太远，继续保持单边北 上；当然，连续大阳之后，最好高位来一个小阴修正或十字K修正，可以更好的延续上拉；若一直未出 现修正，最终也可能会出现某一日突袭获利盘大阴，当然若出现，也是好事，极速修复之后可以酝酿低 位继续开启新一轮单边上拉；5400依旧是今年中旬前的目标； 那么接下来黄金会到哪呢，我想说，上不言顶，不管是5100还是5400，这个让市场去做决定，我们就是 回落干多，下方支撑在4900附近，也就是布局北上的位置；技术面还是那句话，不用 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold continues its strong upward trend, surpassing the $4,900 mark and reaching a historical high of $4,960.43 per ounce [1] - The primary driver of this surge is the persistent weakness of the US dollar, which fell 0.5% to 98.28, marking a three-week low [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut cycle in the second half of 2026, with two cuts totaling 50 basis points, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The Dow Jones index is reported at 49,384.01 points, up 0.63%, buoyed by signals of easing geopolitical tensions from the Davos Forum [7] - The S&P 500 index stands at 6,913.35 points, up 0.55%, reflecting optimistic expectations ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [7] - The Nasdaq index is at 25,436.02 points, up 0.91%, with active performance in tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector [7] Group 3: Currency Market - The US dollar index (DXY) is at 98.30, down 0.41%, as safe-haven buying recedes due to easing geopolitical tensions [8] - The euro to dollar exchange rate is reported at 1.1750, up 0.56%, benefiting from reduced trade friction risks between the US and Europe [8] - The dollar to yen exchange rate is around 158.40, with market risk appetite improving and demand for the yen weakening [8] Group 4: Commodity Market - WTI crude oil is priced at approximately $59.70 per barrel, down 2.14%, as geopolitical premiums significantly decline [5] - Spot silver is reported at about $95.82, up 3.44%, as the market rebounds above the $95 historical high amid easing geopolitical tensions [8] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is trading at approximately $89,521, having slightly dropped from the psychological $90,000 mark, showing strong technical support around $88,000 [8] - Ethereum is fluctuating around the $3,000 mark, with recent on-chain activity debates affecting its price, oscillating between $2,980 and $3,050 [8]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：市场情绪降温，铜价震荡偏弱 隔夜沪铜主力低开震荡，收于100270元，最低触及99440元。伦铜运行至12483美金附近。 宏观中性偏空。美国去年11月核心PCE同比上涨2.8%，环比涨0.2%，均符合预期，上周初请失业金人数略低于预期，经济数据表现强劲降低降息预期。 基本面中性。昨日上期所铜仓单减少2408吨至14.3万吨，LME铜累库8850吨至16.8万吨。自由港印尼发布Grasberg铜矿重启计划，预计今年二季度开始分阶 段重启，基本符合前期预期。据智通财经，受罢工影响智利Mantoverde铜矿停产。随着铜价回调企稳，下游需求边际改善，但目前仍以刚需备库为主。 总体来看，地缘与关税矛盾缓和，加之降息预期回落，市场情绪降温，关注跌价期间下游节前需求回暖程度，预计短期铜价震荡整理。今日沪铜主力运行区 间参考9.93-10.13万元/吨。策略上，短线区间为主，中长线等待低点布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成 ...