5月14日，三大股指集体收涨，上证指数报收3403.95点，涨0.86%；深成指报收10354.22点，涨0.64%；创业板指报收2083.14 点，涨1.01%。 盘面上，大金融板块爆发，保险、券商方向走高；航运、化工概念涨幅居前，军工、光伏题材回调。 银河证券：指数将维持横向震荡趋势，小盘股或有回调趋势。 天风证券：中长期建议持续重视"AI+出海+卫星"核心标的的投资机会：海外线AI核心方向如光模块、光器件、液冷等领域值得 重视，持续核心推荐；此外国产算力线如国产服务器，交换机，AIDC、液冷等方向核心标的建议积极关注。 （文章来源：第一财经） 主力资金全天净流入交通运输、基础化工、有色金属等板块，净流出电力设备、社会服务、纺织服饰等板块。 具体到个股来看，东方财富、中国平安、贵州茅台获净流入19.43亿、9.47亿、7.65亿。 净流出方面，拓维信息、皖通科技、航天电子遭抛售4.76亿元、3.61亿、2.99亿元。 【机构观点】 东方证券：海外风险扰动落定，美国通胀未见上行压力，市场重回全球财政扩张的经济修复期。避险资金大幅退潮，资产端风 险偏好逐步修复。市场反复轮动预期改善，但总量流动性可能受海外弹性 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the power equipment sector [6][16]. Core Viewpoints - OpenAI plans to expand its $500 billion U.S. data center project, Stargate, and increase overseas investments, indicating a sustained positive outlook for the AIDC (AI Data Center) segment [5][15]. - The competition in AI is expected to intensify, and investments in AIDC will continue to show an upward trend, regardless of future U.S. chip restrictions [5][15]. - The report highlights that the power generation sector remains the most logical area for growth, recommending关注潍柴重机 (Weichai Heavy Machinery) [6][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the power generation sector is experiencing simultaneous growth in volume and profit, with a recommendation to focus on Weichai Heavy Machinery. It also suggests monitoring the HVDC segment, recommending 科华数据 (Kehua Data) and 通合科技 (Tonghe Technology), and highlights opportunities in server power and liquid cooling segments, recommending 英维克 (InvoTech), 申菱环境 (Shenling Environment), and 欧陆通 (Oulutong) [6][15]. Industry Dynamics - OpenAI's expansion of its data center project is aimed at promoting "democratic AI" development, with no details on financing or delivery methods disclosed. The report notes that capital expenditures are still growing rapidly, indicating a strong demand for AIDC construction [18]. - The report also tracks the industrial robot reducer market, noting a projected demand of 1.366 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.85% [19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, including: - 潍柴重机 (Weichai Heavy Machinery): EPS of 0.56 in 2024, 0.98 in 2025E, and 1.52 in 2026E [8][17]. - 科华数据 (Kehua Data): EPS of 0.68 in 2024, 1.29 in 2025E, and 1.66 in 2026E [8][17]. - 英维克 (InvoTech): EPS of 0.61 in 2024, 0.83 in 2025E, and 1.09 in 2026E, with a "Buy" rating [8][17]. - 通合科技 (Tonghe Technology): EPS of 0.13 in 2024, 0.38 in 2025E, and 0.69 in 2026E, with an "Increase" rating [8][17]. - 申菱环境 (Shenling Environment): EPS of 0.43 in 2024, 1.05 in 2025E, and 1.33 in 2026E, with a "Buy" rating [8][17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the cloud computing and financial technology sectors, specifically focusing on Alibaba and Tencent's performance and expectations for Q1 2025. Alibaba Cloud - **Revenue Growth Rate**: Expected to range from 15% to 19%, but recent forecasts are converging towards 15% [1] - **EBITA Margin**: Most foreign investors project a margin of around 10%, consistent with Q4 2024, with a potential upside due to AI business margins being higher than traditional CPU leasing [2] - **Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)**: Anticipated to exceed 35 billion, with domestic expectations being higher than foreign estimates, indicating a quarter-on-quarter acceleration [3] Tencent - **Financial Technology Revenue Growth**: Overall growth expected to be between 3% and 5% for Q1 2025, with cloud computing business growth projected at 11% to 13% [4] - **CAPEX Expectations**: Foreign estimates are relatively low, projecting around 80 billion for the year. However, observations indicate that CAPEX for just Q1 could exceed 35 billion, while the official low teen annual forecast remains unchanged [5] Core Insights 1. **CAPEX Investment Uncertainty**: The investment-output phase for 2023/2024 is unpredictable, with CAPEX serving as a leading indicator. The revenue and operating profit margins from cloud business will only become clear after the GPU instance business model is validated in Q3 2024. CAPEX itself is a result, and any positive surprises will likely elevate capital expenditure expectations [6] 2. **Market Sentiment Shift**: Post-May Day trends indicate that both the price increase in computing power leasing and the trend towards domestic chip orders suggest that previous market expectations of a decline in domestic CAPEX were overly pessimistic. It is highly probable that cloud providers will not slow down their investments, and an acceleration is likely [7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **IDC (Internet Data Center) equipment industry** and its related sectors, including AI chip supply, diesel generator sets, and gas turbine markets. Key Points and Arguments IDC Equipment Demand and Supply - **NVIDIA's H20 chip** is expected to launch in July, alleviating domestic computing power supply constraints, which is further supported by increased capital expenditures from major companies like Tencent and Alibaba, indicating strong domestic demand for computing power [1][2] - The **long-term demand for computing power** remains certain, with increased cabinet power density and a tight supply-demand situation for diesel generators [1][4] - **Tencent's feedback** indicates that third-party IDC may exceed 50%, suggesting potential upward adjustments in CAPEX and OPEX [1][5] Market Dynamics - The **upcoming bidding** from major companies in May and June is expected to exacerbate supply shortages and increase price elasticity [1][5] - **Domestic demand** for computing power is rising due to the easing of card bans and higher-than-expected capital expenditures from major firms [1][4] Company-Specific Insights - **Taihao Company** has established connections with major internet firms and possesses MTU diesel engine resources, indicating significant profit elasticity [1][7] - **Weichai Company** has seen a strong performance in the diesel generator sector, with significant profit contributions and a clear expectation for future growth due to domestic substitution [1][8] - **KOTAI Company** has shown improvements in gross and net profits, with inventory reaching historical highs, indicating a positive trend for future price increases [1][9] - **China Power Company** has reported continuous profit releases in its marine engine business, with significant product shipments [1][10] Gas Turbine Market Trends - **Siemens Energy's latest financial report** shows record revenue and orders in gas-related businesses, with gas turbine orders doubling year-on-year [1][11] - **Domestic heavy-duty gas turbine market** is expected to see significant growth, with orders for a specific company projected to double in 2024 [1][12] AI and Power Supply Developments - **Maimi Company** is experiencing significant improvements in power supply unit (PSU) density, with AI-related orders expected to reach 500 million yuan [1][13] - The **AI application landscape** is evolving, with major companies like Apple and Alibaba emphasizing AI integration in their strategies, indicating sustained growth in AI application demand [1][18] Investment Opportunities - The **upcoming bidding** from Tencent and the tight supply of imported engines present potential investment opportunities for domestic OEM manufacturers [1][6] - The **IDC data center infrastructure sector** is recommended for investment, highlighting companies like Kehua, Shenghong, and Koshida for their strong performance and growth potential [1][19][20] Future Outlook - The **AI data center market** is at a turning point, with expected large-scale catalysts in May, indicating a strong long-term demand for AI development [1][22] - The **IDC power equipment industry** is showing positive trends, with companies expanding into North America and Southeast Asia, supported by strong order growth [1][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 6.44 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 660 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 650 million yuan, also up 33.6% year-on-year. The performance fell within the previously forecasted range [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 25.0% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 110 million yuan, up 23.1% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from box-type substations was 4.239 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year; transformer revenue was 1.074 billion yuan, up 56.1%; and complete switchgear revenue was 674 million yuan, up 32.65%. The growth was driven by the wind and solar storage sectors, with data centers and power grids contributing additional growth [9]. - For Q1 2025, revenue continued to grow, primarily due to rapid deliveries to data centers and strong growth in the wind and solar sectors in March [9]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 22.29%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for box-type substations was 21.13%, down 0.25 percentage points; for transformers, it was 25.42%, down 1.97 percentage points; and for complete switchgear, it was 18.06%, up 0.98 percentage points. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.78%, down 0.76 percentage points [9]. Expense Management - The total expense ratio for 2024 was 8.38%, down 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 3.36%, up 0.11 percentage points; the management expense ratio was 2.05%, down 0.58 percentage points; the R&D expense ratio was 3.27%, down 0.01 percentage points; and the financial expense ratio was -0.30%, down 0.17 percentage points. The total expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 10.68%, down 0.90 percentage points [9]. Cash Flow and Inventory - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's inventory was 1.26 billion yuan, up 27.7% year-on-year and up 15.7% from the previous quarter, indicating a healthy delivery outlook. The operating net cash flow for 2024 was 385 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing a significant increase of 116.2% year-on-year [9]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about growth opportunities in new markets such as offshore wind, overseas markets, and AIDC. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is expected to reach 876 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 16 times [9].

公司基本情况：公司成立于 2002 年，自设立以来一直专注于车用胶管系 列产品，主营业务包括传统燃油汽车、新能源汽车、摩托车用橡塑软管及 总成，产品涵盖燃油系统胶管、冷却系统胶管、制动系统胶管、动力转向 胶管等，目前已和国内 50 多家主机厂、50 多家摩托车厂商、200 多家二 次配套厂商建立稳定供配关系，并已开始批量供货储能冷却系统管路产品。 公司业绩方面：受益于新能源汽车行业需求增长，公司 2022-2024 年分别 实现收入 9.07/11.09/13.63 亿元，yoy+16.81%/+22.31%/+22.88%；分别实现 净利润 1.22/1.62/2.03 亿元，yoy+16.60%/+32.32%/+25.15%。 主业方面：下游汽车需求带动管路行业增长，公司产品及客户覆盖齐全 行业方面，2024 年国内新能源汽车销量为 1285.8 万辆，同比增长 35.42%。 我们预计未来汽车行业持续向节能、环保、轻量化、总成化、智能化、网 联化方向发展，行业整体发展趋势良好。 目前公司对橡胶和尼龙两种类型的产品均可设计、开发和生产，技术路线 覆盖全面；客户方面，公司拥有 50 多家汽车主机厂、50 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.07 CNY, based on a current price of 33.36 CNY [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the automotive hose industry, focusing on both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, with a strong customer base and stable supply relationships [1][25]. - The growth in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to drive significant revenue increases, with projected revenues of 9.07 billion CNY in 2022, 11.09 billion CNY in 2023, and 13.63 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.81%, 22.31%, and 22.88% respectively [1][44]. - The company is actively expanding into the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry, particularly in liquid cooling systems, which is anticipated to become a new growth area [3][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2002, the company specializes in automotive hose products, including those for fuel systems, cooling systems, and braking systems, and has established relationships with over 50 automotive manufacturers and 200 secondary suppliers [1][15][62]. Main Business Situation - The automotive industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a projected 35.42% year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales in 2024, reaching 12.858 million units [2][53][59]. - The company has a comprehensive product range and technical capabilities, covering both rubber and nylon products, and has a strong customer base across various automotive manufacturers [2][60]. Incremental Business - The company has begun to penetrate the AIDC market, with its liquid cooling products receiving UL certification and entering multiple supplier systems, indicating a positive outlook for future growth in this segment [3][26]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.80 billion CNY, 22.88 billion CNY, and 29.23 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.60 billion CNY, 3.71 billion CNY, and 4.60 billion CNY [4][44]. - The company is compared to peers in the automotive parts sector, with an average PE ratio of 37.55X, leading to a target price of 45.07 CNY for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment sector [6][16]. Core Viewpoints - The overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings, indicating a clear rebound trend in AI investments. Notably, META revised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast from $60 billion to a range of $64 billion to $72 billion. Google plans to maintain its $75 billion capital expenditure for the year, while Amazon and Microsoft also exceeded revenue and profit expectations for Q1 2025, with Microsoft showing a 53% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure [5][14]. - The domestic AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) construction is accelerating, and with the upcoming major tenders from potential giants, there is optimism for a rebound in the domestic AIDC sector [5][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Insights - The report highlights that the power generation sector remains a strong area for growth, recommending attention to Weichai Heavy Machinery. It also suggests focusing on the HVDC segment, with recommendations for Kehua Data and Tonghe Technology. Additionally, it points to opportunities in server power supplies and liquid cooling, recommending Yinvike, Shenling Environment, and Oulu Tong [6][15]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of the new IP series robot "Xinghangxia P01" by Digital Huaxia, which aims to disrupt the service robot market with its high aesthetics and emotional intelligence [20]. - It notes the release of a list of advanced technology demonstration projects by the National Development and Reform Commission, which includes 12 energy storage projects totaling over 2.455 GW/9.14 GWh [21]. - The report mentions the promotion of private sector development in the energy field by the National Energy Administration, aiming to enhance the role of private enterprises in the green energy transition [21]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a table of key companies with their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, highlighting companies like Weichai Heavy Machinery, Kehua Data, Yinvike, Tonghe Technology, Oulu Tong, and Shenling Environment, with various investment ratings ranging from "Buy" to "Increase" [9][19].

2025 年 05 月 06 日 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) -6.7 -6.8 -3.1 沪深 300 -2.4 -1.9 3.1 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：光伏组件 维持涨价，人形机器人产业进展密 集》2025-03-31 2、《电力设备行业周报：GTC 大会 海外云厂财报超预期，AI 反弹趋势明确 落幕，持续看好 AIDC 建设机会》 2025-03-24 3、《电力设备行业周报：光伏生产 配额上调，人形机器人催化不断》 2025-03-18 ▌海外云厂财报超预期，AI 反弹趋势明确 五一期间海外 CSP 厂商发布财报，海外云厂 Q1 业绩均大超预 期。其中 META 收入超预期，且将 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power supply industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving the demand for intelligent computing data centers (AIDC), which are expected to enhance the efficiency of computing resources and provide a solid foundation for the digital economy [9][11] - The power supply architecture is anticipated to evolve from UPS to HVDC, with a focus on improving power supply efficiency and reliability [4][66] - The market for AI servers and power supplies is expected to see significant growth, driven by increasing power density and the need for high-performance computing [41][56] Summary by Sections 1. AI Trends and Power Supply Demand - The construction of intelligent computing centers is expected to accelerate due to the AI wave, with a focus on enhancing computing power and efficiency [9] - The power supply infrastructure is likely to undergo iterative upgrades to meet the growing demands of data centers [19] 2. AI Server Power Supply Upgrades - The global AI market reached approximately 1,187.9 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations of a compound annual growth rate exceeding 35% from 2023 to 2030 [41] - AI server power supply performance is expected to improve, leading to increased value and demand for high-power solutions [41][56] - The transition from UPS to HVDC systems is anticipated to enhance efficiency and reliability in data centers [66][82] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several areas within the power supply sector, including: 1. Increased power density in server power supplies, with recommendations to monitor companies like Megmeet and EATON [4] 2. The shift from UPS to HVDC systems, with a focus on companies such as Zhongheng Electric and Hezhong Electric [4] 3. Backup power solutions, particularly BBU and diesel generators, with recommendations to observe companies like Yiwei Lithium Energy and KOTAI Power [4]