商务部与海关总署联合发布 2025年第58号公告，决定对锂电池及其相关物项，以及人造石墨负极材料实施出口管制， 此举在新能源产业内引发了广泛关注与深度讨论。 2025 年 10 月 1 3 日 ， 鑫椤资讯高级研究员张金惠 在直播中就 这一政策进行了专业解读。 一、新规核心内容概览 根据公告，此次出口管制措施覆盖了锂电池、正极材料、石墨负极材料等多个关键环节。具体而言，重量能量密度大于 等于 300 Wh/kg的可充放电锂离子电池（包括电芯和电池组）、用于生产这些电池的设备和技术，以及人造石墨负极 材料及其生产设备、工艺和技术均被纳入管制范围。 二、管制目的：维护国家安全与利益 业内专家指出，此次出口管制的主要目的在于维护国家安全和利益，履行防扩散等国际义务。通过管控关键技术的外 流，国家旨在保持在新兴能源领域的竞争优势，并在国际谈判中争取更有利的地位。值得注意的是，管控并不等同于禁 止出口，而是通过审批制度来规范出口行为，确保产品和技术流向符合国家利益的国家和地区。 三、产业链受波及：上游至下游全面影响 出口管制新规对产业链的影响是全方位的，从上游原材料到中游制造，再到下游应用，无一不受到波及。 在上游原材 ...

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The uncertainty remains, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. The A-share market may fluctuate in the short term, but there are still structural opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs. Gold is expected to continue rising, and the bond market is turning bullish [15][16]. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - In the past two weeks (20250929 - 20251012), the three major US stock indexes declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by -1.24%, -1.37%, and -1.66% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% [3]. - Most A-share sectors rose. The Wind All-A Index changed by 1.63%. Among different indexes, the CSI A100, SSE 50, and others showed varying degrees of increase, while some indexes like the ChiNext Index and the North Securities 50 Index declined [4]. - Among the 30 CITIC industries, 25 industries rose, and 5 declined. The leading industries were non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and building materials, with gains of more than 4.0% in the past two weeks [5]. Bond Market Performance - In the past two weeks, the price of interest rate bonds rose, and the yields of most maturity varieties declined. The 10-year Treasury bond futures main contract rose by 0.28% compared to September 28, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond declined by 5.75BP to 1.8206% [6]. - The capital price decreased. As of October 11, 2025, R007 was 1.4120%, a decrease of 22.60BP compared to September 28, 2025, and DR007 was 1.3945%, a decrease of 16.11BP. The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 144.64 billion yuan in the past two weeks [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5-day average of the inter-bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 6.35 trillion yuan on September 28, 2025, to 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11, 2025 [8][9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward as a whole. As of October 11, 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 15BP to 4.05% compared to September 26, 2025 [10]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index increased by 0.64% in the past two weeks. The US dollar had different exchange rate changes against the euro, pound, and yen, and also had mixed changes against the offshore and onshore RMB [11]. - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 5.43% to $3,974.50 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.75% to $3,986.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased [11]. Policy and Trade Issues - China has strengthened export controls on some rare earth-related items and technologies. These controls are mainly targeted at military use items, and civilian and compliant items will be permitted. The policy has a reasonable transition period, and the government will promote compliant trade [12]. - The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China in response to China's rare earth export controls. China's Ministry of Commerce has responded, stating that China is not afraid of a tariff war. Whether the US will actually impose the tariff is uncertain, and if it does, China may retaliate. The impact on the A-share market is expected to be less than that in early April [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has implemented export controls on rare earth items to enhance its export control system, citing the importance of these materials in military applications and the need to maintain global peace and regional stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Export Control Measures - The export control measures are a legitimate action by the Chinese government based on laws and regulations, aimed at ensuring national security and international safety [1][2] - China will conduct a licensing review according to laws and regulations, granting approvals for compliant applications, particularly for civilian use [2] - The measures are not a complete ban on exports; they will allow for various facilitation measures such as general licenses and exemptions to promote compliant trade [2] Group 2: International Relations and Responses - China has communicated these export control measures to relevant countries and regions through bilateral dialogue mechanisms prior to their announcement [2] - The Chinese government views the U.S. response, which includes a 100% tariff on rare earth exports and export controls on key software, as a double standard and discriminatory practice [3] - The U.S. has a significantly larger export control list compared to China, which raises concerns about the impact on international trade and supply chain stability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing tensions between Western countries and China, particularly in the semiconductor industry, as evidenced by the recent regulatory challenges faced by China's leading semiconductor company, Wingtech Technology, and its subsidiary Nexperia in the Netherlands [1][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Wingtech Technology's subsidiary Nexperia has had its assets and intellectual property frozen for one year by the Dutch government, starting September 30, due to alleged governance issues [1][2]. - The timing of the Dutch government's actions closely follows new export control regulations announced by the U.S. government, raising suspicions of coordinated efforts to undermine Chinese companies in sensitive industries [1][6]. Group 2: Company Background - Nexperia, headquartered in Nijmegen, Netherlands, is a core semiconductor business of Wingtech Technology, focusing on discrete and logic devices. It was previously a department of NXP Semiconductors and was fully acquired by Wingtech in 2019 [4]. - In 2024, Nexperia is projected to generate approximately 14.7 billion yuan, accounting for about one-sixth of Wingtech's total revenue [4]. Group 3: Government Statements and Reactions - The Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs claims that the decision to freeze Nexperia's operations is to protect the continuity and security of critical technology in the Netherlands and Europe [5]. - Wingtech Technology has strongly protested against the Dutch government's actions, describing them as excessive external intervention based on unfounded national security concerns [5][6]. - Analysts warn that the Dutch government's actions may escalate tensions between Western nations and China in high-tech sectors, with potential retaliatory measures from China targeting the broader European semiconductor industry [6].

Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) experienced a rise of over 2%, currently up 1.28%, with a turnover of 3.85% and a transaction volume of 745 million yuan [1] - As of October 13, the latest scale of the non-ferrous metal ETF reached 18.926 billion yuan, with a total of 1.0525 billion shares, both hitting record highs since inception [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 7 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.208 billion yuan, totaling 4.195 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2: Rare Earth and Metal Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on certain rare earth materials, effective November 8, which includes semiconductor-related items [1] - Analysts believe that China's strict export controls will further support rare earth prices, as the country remains the only one with a complete rare earth industry chain [1] - Citic Securities noted that the supply of rare earths is becoming more rigid, with the demand expected to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, indicating a positive supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Copper and Cobalt Market Outlook - UBS predicts that the market outlook for copper is increasingly driven by supply-side factors, with expectations of price increases and a projected demand growth of 2.2% and 2.9% for refined copper in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The supply gap for copper is expected to reach 53,000 tons in 2025 and 87,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has set cobalt export quotas for 2025-2027, with significant reductions in supply expected if production remains stable and exports are halted for about 8 months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has implemented strict export controls on rare earths and related technologies, significantly impacting global supply chains, particularly for ASML, the only company capable of producing advanced EUV lithography machines, which rely heavily on Chinese rare earth materials [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Regulations - The new regulations require any product containing more than 0.1% Chinese rare earth components to obtain approval from China before re-exporting [1][3]. - The regulations encompass the entire industry chain, including mining, smelting, metal refining, and magnet manufacturing, making it difficult for companies to bypass controls through third-party countries [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on ASML - ASML's EUV lithography machines depend on rare earth elements like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, with over 10,000 parts in each machine [5]. - The company may face shipment delays of up to 12 weeks due to the new approval requirements for all equipment containing Chinese rare earths [8]. Group 3: Broader Industry Effects - The new regulations have immediate repercussions for the global semiconductor industry, affecting major players like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, all of which rely on ASML's machines for high-end chip production [7]. - Samsung's attempt to replace neodymium-iron-boron magnets with samarium-cobalt magnets has resulted in a 40% cost increase, while Intel's Arizona factory has only 90 days of rare earth polishing material inventory [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The export controls reflect an escalation in the tech rivalry between the U.S. and China, mirroring the U.S. "foreign direct product rule" by enforcing technology traceability [11]. - The crisis highlights the vulnerability of the Western semiconductor industry, as the U.S. lacks a complete processing supply chain despite having rare earth resources [11]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The market has reacted sharply, with dysprosium oxide prices soaring by 30% within 48 hours, and the stock prices of Chinese companies like Northern Rare Earth have surged [13]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the controls persist, prices for smartphones and PCs could rise by 15% to 20% by 2026 [13]. Group 6: ASML's Strategic Choices - ASML's current predicament is linked to its previous decisions to halt exports to China under U.S. pressure, resulting in a significant revenue drop from the Chinese market, which once accounted for 29% of its income [15]. - The new rare earth regulations not only disrupt ASML's supply chain but also create uncertainty for its global customers, reshaping the dynamics of global tech power [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's stance on trade relations with the U.S., asserting that China is open to dialogue but will respond firmly to threats and restrictions [2][3] - China has clarified its position regarding the U.S. threats of imposing 100% tariffs and highlighted that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to safeguard national security [2] - The article mentions that China has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms before their implementation [2] Group 2 - The article reiterates that both countries have significant common interests and potential for cooperation, suggesting that mutual benefits can be achieved through respectful and equal negotiations [3] - It criticizes the U.S. for its inconsistent approach of seeking dialogue while simultaneously threatening new restrictions, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and engage sincerely in discussions [3] - The article calls for maintaining the achievements of previous negotiations and emphasizes the importance of managing differences through dialogue to promote a healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese stance on the trade war is clear: they are willing to engage in negotiations but will also respond firmly to U.S. actions [2]. - There is a recognition of mutual interests and cooperation potential between the U.S. and China, with past negotiations demonstrating the ability to resolve issues through respectful dialogue [2]. - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its approach, emphasizing the need for sincerity in negotiations and adherence to previous agreements made by the leaders of both countries [2]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures are framed as legitimate actions to enhance its regulatory framework, not as outright bans, with a commitment to approving compliant applications [1]. - The Chinese government has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral channels prior to their implementation, indicating a desire for transparency [1]. - The U.S. is criticized for its broad interpretation of national security and for imposing a series of restrictions that harm Chinese interests and disrupt the atmosphere for trade talks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Relations - China has consistently stated its position on the trade war, indicating readiness to engage in both conflict and dialogue, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation between China and the U.S. [2]. - The Chinese side has maintained communication within the framework of the China-U.S. economic and trade negotiation mechanism, asserting that solutions can be found through mutual respect and equal consultation [2]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures are described as legitimate actions based on laws and regulations, aimed at improving its export control system rather than outright bans [1]. - The Chinese government has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms prior to their implementation [1]. Group 3: U.S. Actions - The U.S. has been accused of abusing export controls and implementing a series of restrictive measures against China, which have harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for economic talks [1]. - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the hard-won results of previous discussions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's stance on recent export control measures regarding rare earth materials and the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, emphasizing China's commitment to maintaining national security and international stability while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China has implemented export control measures on rare earth materials as a legitimate action to enhance its export control system, citing the importance of these materials in military applications amid global instability [4]. - The Chinese government assures that these export controls do not equate to a ban on exports, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [4][5]. - Prior to the announcement, China communicated these measures through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms to relevant countries [4][5]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China's export controls, which China views as a double standard and an abuse of national security concerns [5][7]. - The U.S. has a significantly larger export control list, with over 3,000 items compared to China's 900, indicating a disparity in the application of export controls [7]. - China expresses strong opposition to the U.S. actions, stating that such measures severely damage legitimate business interests and disrupt international trade order [7][8]. Group 3: Call for Dialogue - China maintains an open stance for dialogue, stating that both countries have extensive common interests and cooperation potential, and urges the U.S. to correct its approach and engage in sincere negotiations [2][6]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and equal consultation in resolving trade issues, advocating for a stable and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [2][6].