Macro and Policy Level - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Istanbul, which may impact global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in energy and commodity markets [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for May increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, indicating continued expansion overall [2] - The US trade deficit for April is projected to narrow from $140.5 billion to $117.3 billion, reflecting a potential easing of the "export rush" effect [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June, with market focus on future rate guidance amid economic growth concerns in the Eurozone [4] Financial Data - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May are set to be released [5] - The US will release various economic indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a decrease in job additions from 177,000 to 130,000 [7] Industry Level - CATL is set to launch monthly options for its H-shares, with the first contracts available on June 2, 2025 [6] - Nintendo will globally launch the Switch 2, featuring significant upgrades in hardware performance and gaming experience compared to its predecessor [8] Company Level - Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, where management shared strategic directions and business developments, including a visit to its automotive factory [9] - Broadcom reported Q2 fiscal year 2025 earnings, projecting revenue of $14.9 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]

金十整理：新西兰联储利率决议重点一览——有进一步降息的空间 5. 市场反应：利率决议公布后，纽元兑美元NZD/USD累计上涨约40点。 3. 利率预期：预计到2025年9月官方现金利率为3.12%（此前预测为3.23%）；到2026年6月官方现金利 率将维持在2.87%（之前预测为3.1%）；到2028年6月官方现金利率将维持在3.1%。有进一步适当降低 官方现金利率的空间，现金利率预期显示至少将再降息25个基点。 4. 经济前景：预计2025年第一季度GDP环比增长0.4%。经济中存在剩余产能；有能力应对国内外经济 形势的变化。海外关税政策和不确定性将减缓经济复苏。 1. 利率决议：新西兰联储将政策利率从3.50%下调至3.25%，为连续第六次降息，符合市场预期。委员 会讨论了维持利率不变或降息25个基点的选择方案，最终以5:1的投票比例同意降息。 2. 通胀预期：核心通胀率正在下降，通胀位于目标区间内。预计到2026年6月年度CPI将达到1.9%，低 于此前预测的2.2%。目前的形势表明，中期内通胀有望回归1%至3%目标区间的中位数水平。 ...

新西兰联储公布利率决议以来，纽元兑美元NZD/USD累计上涨约40点，现报0.5962。 ...

Core Insights - Interest rates are a core component of monetary policy adjustments by central banks, directly impacting the foreign exchange market through currency supply and demand, market expectations, capital flows, and policy differentiation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Effects - Rate hikes attract capital inflows, reduce currency circulation, and strengthen the domestic currency, with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes typically leading to a stronger US dollar [2] - Rate cuts decrease the attractiveness of domestic assets, leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations often preemptively incorporate interest rate decisions, and discrepancies between actual decisions and expectations can lead to significant currency fluctuations [4] - Forward guidance from central banks directly influences market expectations, as indicated by Powell's comments in May 2025, which suggested a higher threshold for rate cuts, resulting in a short-term strengthening of the dollar [4] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff policies, such as those from the Trump administration, may increase inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates to control prices, indirectly supporting the dollar [5] - Differentiation in central bank rate decisions can lead to currency fluctuations, exemplified by the significant drop in the GBP against the NOK when the Bank of England cut rates while the Norwegian central bank held rates steady in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Arbitrage and Capital Flows - Interest rate differentials drive arbitrage, where investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in high-rate currency assets, increasing demand for high-rate currencies [6] - Changes in liquidity due to central bank balance sheet adjustments can indirectly alter exchange rates, as seen when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction decreases dollar supply, potentially supporting its value [6] Group 5: Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market often occurs following interest rate announcements due to emotional market reactions [7] - Long-term currency trends are determined by the overarching direction of monetary policy [8] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current global monetary policy divergence, coupled with uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, has led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [9] - Key areas for investor focus include the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, potential adjustments in response to inflation or economic data, geopolitical risks from escalating trade tensions, and emerging market currency crises [9] - Arbitrage opportunities driven by interest rate differentials and capital flows will remain central to short-term trading strategies [9]

澳元在澳洲联储 利率决议后下跌0.4%。 ...

澳洲联储 利率决议：关税最终范围及其他国家的政策应对措施仍存在很大不确定性。 ...

提醒：北京时间12:30，澳洲联储公布利率决议，澳洲联储主席布洛克召开货币政策新闻发布会。 ...

Group 1 - The article mentions the upcoming announcement of China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - It notes that there will be 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to release its interest rate decision [1]

英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：没有关于与印度达成的协议对利率决议（影响）的细节可以披露。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has led to an increase in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, both supply and demand are weak, and the sustainability of downstream demand is questionable. The market has been mainly trading on macro - information recently. The implementation of domestic stimulus policies remains to be seen, and copper prices are currently fluctuating slightly and mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: Since January this year, the Fed has maintained the interest rate decision unchanged for the third consecutive time. Powell stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates hastily. Trump's call for a rate cut does not affect the Fed's work. This news has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and put pressure on copper prices [1]. - **Supply Side**: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper production of 21,000 tons. There are still concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. The estimated domestic refined copper production in May is 1.023 million tons (a 1.2% month - on - month increase). TC/RC fees continue to be negative and the negative value is expanding. The high - running sulfuric acid price has made up for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tightening [1]. - **Demand Side**: After the holiday, demand recovery has been slow. The downstream operating rate has increased. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. Spot copper prices are strong. In the context of significant inventory reduction, the market has strong expectations for demand. However, in April, China's manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China General Services PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points from March, reaching the lowest level in seven months in the expansion range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: Intraday, Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,620 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top twenty was 118,861 lots, an increase of 2,491 lots; the number of short positions was 111,865 lots, an increase of 1,373 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 210 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 195 yuan per ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,462 per ton, and the spot premium was $24 per ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of April 25, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 194,300 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 156,600 short tons, an increase of 1,991 short tons from the previous period [9].