作 者丨李域 编 辑丨巫燕玲，江佩佩 美国资产周一重演股债汇三杀。 当地时间4月2 1日，美股三大指数全线下跌，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普5 0 0指数 均跌逾2%。 美 债 波 动 率 也 再 度 回 升 ， 长 期 美 债 的 抛 售 导 致 收 益 率 曲 线 急 剧 变 陡 。 美 元 指 数 跌 0 . 8 8% 报 9 8 . 3 5 ， 创 三 年 来 新 低 ， 盘 中 一 度 连 续 跌 破 9 9 、 9 8 两 大 整 数 位 关 口 ； 美 元 兑 日 元 跌 破 1 4 1 关 口，跌0 . 9 4%报1 4 0 . 8 5。 昨夜，美股大跌！道指跌近1 0 0 0点 据Wi n d，截至4月2 1日收盘，美股大幅收跌，道指跌9 7 1 . 8 2点。 | 新版 | 成分 | | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 苹果(APPLE) | | 193.160 | | -1.94% | | AAPL.O | | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET) | | 149.860 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is still experiencing the "aftershocks" caused by the U.S. imposition of tariffs, leading to increased volatility and uncertainty in both U.S. and global markets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On April 21, U.S. stock indices fell over 2%, with the Dow Jones index dropping more than 8% and the Nasdaq index over 10% in the past 20 days [2]. - The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, with the dollar index briefly falling below 98, while spot gold rose above $3,400 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are becoming cautious about the outlook for U.S. stocks, with many institutions downgrading their expectations for U.S. stock performance amid ongoing trade disputes [3][4]. - Wellington Management noted that the recent sell-off in the stock market is a correction process due to tariff and policy uncertainties, leading to a reassessment of growth expectations [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a rising probability of a recession in the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs predicting near-zero growth and a 45% chance of a full recession within the next 12 months [12]. - The VIX fear index surged from 15.2 to 60.13, indicating heightened market uncertainty [11]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent weeks saw a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the dollar index, reflecting a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. - The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.5%, marking the highest weekly increase since 2001, while the 30-year yield briefly surpassed 5% [7]. Group 5: Tariff Impact - The imposition of tariffs is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., with over 80% of surveyed economists believing it will significantly increase inflation [12]. - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariff policies is damaging investor confidence and increasing volatility in global markets [5][10]. Group 6: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may lead to a restructuring of global supply chains and increased long-term trade and financing costs [12][13]. - The potential for "de-dollarization" is increasing as global trade dynamics shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [9].

Group 1: Dollar's Plunge - The dollar index has fallen below 99, marking its lowest level since April 2022, with a daily drop exceeding 1% and a cumulative decline of nearly 6% in April, and over 9% year-to-date [1][3] - The rapid decline of the dollar has led to a surge in other currencies like the euro and yen, which have significantly appreciated against the dollar [3][4] - The drop in the dollar's value has prompted a massive influx of capital into gold, as investors seek refuge from the declining dollar [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies are identified as a key trigger for the dollar's decline, disrupting the previous balance of the dollar's global circulation [5][8] - The imposition of high tariffs has resulted in reduced exports from China to the U.S., leading to a decrease in the dollar's circulation and demand in international markets [8][9] - Trump's erratic policy announcements have created uncertainty, causing investors to flee from dollar assets in search of more stable investments [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators in the U.S. have been showing signs of weakness since January, with a continuous decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index [10][11] - Major U.S. corporations are reporting disappointing earnings, particularly in the tech and retail sectors, contributing to investor concerns about the future economic outlook [13] - The overall sentiment among investors is shifting away from dollar assets due to fears of an impending economic recession in the U.S. [13] Group 4: Global De-dollarization - A global trend of de-dollarization is emerging, with countries like Russia leading the charge by selling off U.S. Treasury bonds and shifting trade settlements to currencies like the euro and yuan [14][17] - Other nations, including India and Iran, are also reducing their reliance on the dollar for trade, opting for local currencies instead [17] - This de-dollarization movement is seen as a response to the risks associated with over-reliance on the dollar, particularly in light of potential U.S. financial sanctions [17] Group 5: Impact on Individuals and Markets - The dollar's decline is expected to affect ordinary consumers, especially those planning to study or travel abroad, as the value of the dollar fluctuates [18][19] - The volatility of the dollar may lead to increased prices for commodities priced in dollars, impacting stock markets and investor confidence [21] - The real estate market may experience mixed effects, with potential capital outflows in cities heavily reliant on foreign investment, while a stronger yuan could attract some foreign capital [21] Group 6: Future Outlook - The long-term implications of the dollar's decline remain uncertain, but it is clear that the global economic and financial landscape is undergoing significant changes [23] - Investors are advised to consider diversifying their portfolios away from dollar assets, potentially including gold and other stable currencies [23] - The current situation presents both challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies [23]

周一，美元指数（DXY）暴跌超过1%，一度跌破整数关口98，为2022年3月以来最低点。当天，黄金历 史上首次正式突破3400美元/盎司。 国际金价和美元指数走势对比图（2020年8月至今） 美联储独立性遭质疑 美国总统特朗普上周频繁施压美联储，以及威胁要撤职美联储主席鲍威尔，美联储的独立性正在遭到市 场的怀疑。独立的中央银行被大多数人视为市场经济的基石。企业、投资者、消费者等通过校准银行贷 款和抵押贷款等债务所依据的基准利率来引导经济。 特朗普上周五表示："如果我们有一个了解他在做什么的美联储主席，利率也会下降。"这是他在上周连 续质疑鲍威尔后的最新表态。白宫也表示，官员们正在评估他们是否可以罢免美联储主席。 但美联储官员则密集表达了对白宫干预的反对。周日，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比就警告不要限 制央行的独立性，称货币政策需要免受政治干预。 古尔斯比在一场公开活动中表示，质疑货币政策独立性将损害美联储的信誉。参议员艾米·克洛布查尔 也支持美联储的独立性，指出法律规定美联储主席只能因渎职或犯罪等"正当理由"被解职。她认为鲍威 尔的工作做得很好，并强调美联储的独立性在应对各种危机中发挥了重要作用。 事实上， ...

4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US"的切 ...

赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 摘要 4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. Treasury prices and the rise in yields due to global investor sell-offs, exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies and increasing recession risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury prices have been falling while yields are rising, influenced by global financial market volatility [1]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is causing overseas financial institutions to sell U.S. Treasuries to mitigate losses and enhance liquidity [1]. - The risk of a U.S. economic recession is increasing, which may lead to a contraction in credit and financing demand, creating tension in capital flows and economic fundamentals affecting Treasury yields [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The volatility of U.S. Treasuries is expected to increase due to the combined effects of tariff-related uncertainties and recession risks [1]. - Market expectations of U.S. recession and inflation rebound are weakening the safe-haven appeal of U.S. Treasuries [1]. - The unpredictability of Trump’s policies is likely to continue disrupting the market, and a potential liquidity crisis from Treasury sell-offs could force the Federal Reserve to restart bond purchases or provide liquidity support, although intervention options are limited under the current balance sheet reduction [1]. Group 3: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasuries - As of the end of January this year, Japan holds the largest amount of U.S. Treasuries at $1,079.3 billion, followed by China with $760.8 billion, and the UK with $740.2 billion [2].

摩根士丹利(MS.N)CEO：仍谨慎乐观，认为美国不会陷入衰退。 ...

特朗普"绝不会改变"的宣言还在白宫上空飘荡，暂停"对等关税"90天，只对中国征收125%关税的政策就已经出炉。这种剧烈的转变，不仅普通人没反应过 来，连特朗普的最高贸易代表格里尔，也因为他还在众议院苦口婆心地称赞关税政策，而特朗普在外面已经按下暂停键，遭遇巨大尴尬。 CNN戏谑地评价特朗普"政治痛苦阈值只有一周"，而轰轰烈烈的"对等关税"，对大部分国家来说其实只生效了几个小时。中国虽然面临125%的巨额关税， 但在其他国家"对等关税"暂缓的情况下，其实并不影响中国商品对美国出口。这就是加斯帕里诺说，"白宫投降了"的原因。 ▲格里尔被大肆嘲讽 不过，在美国东部时间4月7日上午10点14分，曾出现"特朗普将暂停对等关税"的传闻，同样引发美股大幅上涨。而白宫反应迅速，仅仅15分钟后就宣布消息 不实，美股转而下跌。当时大家只是觉得，在一连串消息的冲击下美股太敏感，稍有风吹草动就大涨大跌。现在看起来，恐怕是有意为之。 智通财经在9日援引S3数据，称有交易员在过去六天做空标普500，获利高达1590亿美元。这还是只算一个版块，并且没算美股刚刚大涨的情况下。如果在 两次涨跌之前都做好准备，套利数千亿美元恐怕不在话下。 美国 ...

北京时间，周四晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿，道指跌2.1%，纳指跌2.93%，标普500指数跌2.55%。 "冷静点！一切都会好起来的，" 美东时间周三上午，就在美股开盘几分钟后，特朗普在其自创的社媒平台Truth Social上发帖称。"美国将比以往任何时候 都更强大、更强大！" 他随后补充道："现在是买入的好时机！！！DJT。" 特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，将对一些国家暂停实施其新关税，在90天内"对等关税"降至10%，立即生效。随后，美股大幅拉升，道指、纳指、标普500指 数分别收涨7.87%、12.16%、9.52%。 在此之后，一众高官开始为特朗普唱起了赞歌。 对此，特朗普的贸易和制造业高级顾问彼得·纳瓦罗发文表示这是贸易谈判史上最伟大的日子，美国历史上的最大股市涨幅，相信特朗普。 美国商务部长卢特尼克则发文表示，特朗普签署了其任期内最不可思议的文件，世界已经准备好与特朗普合作解决全球贸易问题。 不过，从数据来看，目前美股似乎还没有到开香槟的时刻。虽然美股经历了大反弹，但美股科技板块距离4月2日的市值水平仍差约1.9万亿美元。 值得一提的是，特朗普如同儿戏般的关税政策也迎来专家的嘲讽。《纽约时 ...