2025年6月11日下午，中国汽车工业协会信息发布会在北京召开。本次发布会内容主要包括2025年5 月汽车产销数据及经济运行情况。中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华出席本次发布会。中国汽车工业协 会专务副秘书长许海东主持发布会。 中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华发布2025年5月汽车产销数据及经济运行情况。 当前，我国汽车行业整体运行呈现稳中向好态势，市场活力不断释放，但行业盈利水平持续下 滑，"增量不增利"的局面未有改善。以无序"价格战"为主要表现形式的"内卷式"竞争，是行业效益 下降的重要因素。协会于5月31日对外发布了《关于维护公平竞争秩序，促进行业健康发展的倡 议》，旨在引导所有企业遵从公平竞争原则，坚持创新驱动，持续提升产品品质和服务质量，共同 维护行业健康发展，《倡议》得到了行业内外的广泛认可和支持。 来源： 中汽协会行业信息部 我国经济总体保持平稳增长，经济运行向新向好，内需空间不断扩展，外需市场更加多元。今 年以来，"两新"政策加力扩围，持续显效，叠加车企新品投放、多地车展促销等利好因素，助力汽 车市场消费活力加速释放。 5月，汽车市场延续良好态势，产销较去年同期实现10%以上的增长，且内需和出口均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies in China has effectively supported consumption expansion, investment stabilization, transformation promotion, and improved livelihoods, with noticeable policy effects emerging throughout the year [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth - The consumer goods replacement policies have significantly stimulated consumption, with retail sales of communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture increasing by 26.9%, 19.3%, and 18.1% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies also saw a growth of 21.7%, indicating sustained rapid growth in these sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Growth - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 19% year-on-year in the first quarter, contributing 64.6% to the overall investment growth [1] - Investment growth in sectors closely related to the "two new" initiatives, such as consumer goods manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, manufacturing technology upgrades, and raw materials manufacturing, rose by 13.5%, 8.9%, 7.2%, and 4.3% respectively [1] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - There are ongoing issues such as imbalances in the "two new" initiatives across different regions and sectors, and the need for improved efficiency in subsidy applications [1] - The government is urged to implement comprehensive measures to address these challenges to avoid negatively impacting policy effectiveness [1] Group 4: Coordination and Support Mechanisms - Local governments and relevant departments are encouraged to strengthen responsibility awareness and ensure the smooth implementation of the "two new" initiatives [2] - A national information platform is proposed to facilitate data sharing and improve the efficiency of subsidy applications and fund disbursement [2] Group 5: Financial Support and Regulation - There is a call for accelerated review and disbursement of allocated funds to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises and ensure subsidies reach consumers effectively [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide preferential loans and simplify application processes to lower financing costs for consumers and businesses [3] Group 6: Public Awareness and Engagement - Local governments are tasked with promoting the progress and benefits of the "two new" policies through various outreach activities, ensuring effective communication and community engagement [3]

具体车企方面，1月至5月，汽车销量排名前十的企业（集团）共销售1070.8万辆，占汽车销售总量的 84%。 出口方面，5月，中国汽车出口55.1万辆，环比增长6.6%，同比增长14.5%。1月至5月，中国汽车出口总 量达249万辆，同比增长7.9%。 据中汽协统计，5月，中国汽车产销分别完成264.9万辆和268.6万辆，环比分别增长1.1%和3.7%，同比 分别增长11.6%和11.2%。1月至5月，汽车产销累计完成1282.6万辆和1274.8万辆，同比分别增长12.7% 和10.9%。 新能源汽车方面，数据显示，5月，中国新能源汽车产销分别完成127万辆和130.7万辆，环比分别增长 1.5%和6.7%，同比分别增长35%和36.9%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的48.7%。 在新能源汽车主要品种中，与上月相比，纯电动汽车产量小幅下降、销量小幅增长，燃料电池汽车产销 明显下降，插电式混合动力汽车产销呈两位数增长；与上年同期相比，燃料电池汽车产销明显下降，其 他两大类新能源汽车品种产销均呈不同程度增长。 ◎记者俞立严 6月11日，中国汽车工业协会（简称"中汽协"）召开沟通会，公布一系列数据。20 ...

Group 1: Consumption Growth in Central and Western Regions - The consumption growth momentum in central and western provinces is strong, with 11 out of 17 provinces showing retail sales growth above the national average in the first four months of the year [1][2] - Hubei and Henan provinces have retail sales growth rates of 7.7% and 7.2%, respectively, exceeding the national average by 3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points [2][3] - Experts suggest that central regions should focus on regional collaboration, industry linkage, and policy innovation to transform consumption growth into lasting industrial competitiveness and regional influence [3] Group 2: Impact of "Two New" Policies - The "Two New" policies have significantly boosted sales in communication equipment, home appliances, and audio-visual products, contributing to retail sales growth [4] - As of May 31, 2025, the "Two New" policy has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4][5] - In the first four months of the year, at least 16 provinces reported retail sales growth in communication equipment exceeding the national average, with some western provinces showing over 50% growth [4] Group 3: Sports and Cultural Events Driving Consumption - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products have seen significant growth, with some regions reporting increases over 25% in the first four months [6] - The sports industry has expanded from 2.9 trillion yuan in 2019 to 3.7 trillion yuan, driven by government support and youth consumer trends [6] - Events like the "Su Super" football league have boosted local economies, with a reported 14.63% increase in tourism spending during the Dragon Boat Festival [6][7]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Domestic Demand - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and enhancing economic vitality are expected to be introduced, focusing on "two new" (new infrastructure and new urbanization), "two heavy" (major projects and important sectors), and "旺旺" (potentially referring to strong consumption areas) [1] - The "two new" policies are anticipated to become a significant engine for expanding domestic demand, with digital product sales exceeding 140 billion yuan due to new purchase subsidies [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to expedite fund allocation and improve the efficiency of fund usage, including implementing equipment update loan interest subsidies to reduce financing costs for businesses [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Export Performance - In the context of tense trade relations, boosting domestic demand is crucial to counter uncertainties in external demand, with foreign trade being a key component of economic growth [2] - China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2%, indicating strong competitiveness in export products despite external pressures [3] - Trade with African countries reached a record high, with imports and exports growing significantly, showcasing a strategic shift to reduce reliance on exports to the U.S. [3] Group 3: Export Product Value Addition - China's export products are increasingly shifting from low-end manufacturing to mid-to-high-end manufacturing, with significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar power [4] - The country has become the world's largest automobile exporter, surpassing Japan, reflecting its growing advantages in high-end manufacturing [4] - Although double-digit export growth may be challenging, the improvement in the added value of export products has positively impacted the profits of export enterprises [4]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - Multiple incremental economic policies are expected to be introduced soon, focusing on "two new" and "two heavy" areas, as well as stabilizing foreign trade, which will help stabilize expectations and yield early results [1] - The "two new" policies have been strengthened and expanded this year, becoming a significant driver for expanding domestic demand, with digital product purchase subsidies exceeding 140 billion yuan and home appliance retail sales maintaining double-digit growth for eight consecutive months [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate fund allocation and complete the 2024 consumer goods replacement fund settlement, enhancing fund utilization efficiency and implementing equipment update loan interest subsidies to reduce financing costs for various business entities [1] Group 2: Investment and Financial Tools - Investment plays a crucial role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, fostering momentum, benefiting people's livelihoods, and preventing risks, with 99% of the 102 major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" already completed [2] - New policy financial tools are being established to address capital shortages for project construction, with an estimated quota of around 500 billion yuan, potentially driving 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to increase support for foreign trade enterprises, including expanding export credit insurance coverage to enhance the confidence of foreign trade companies [2] Group 3: Employment Support - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security emphasizes the need for incremental policies to support job creation, including increased employment subsidies and higher unemployment insurance for affected enterprises [3] - Recommendations include implementing measures such as job retention refunds, guaranteed loans, employment subsidies, vocational training, and expanding labor-based assistance programs [3] - Continuous policy research and reserve efforts will be maintained to ensure timely implementation of employment stabilization measures as needed [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic environment in China, highlighting the impact of external factors such as U.S.-China trade relations and domestic economic policies on various economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The expected GDP growth for May 2025 is projected at 5.8%, with industrial added value growth at 6.0%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [6][21]. 2. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment is anticipated to grow by 3.8% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast, influenced by external uncertainties and cautious corporate behavior [10][27]. 3. **Consumer Spending**: Social retail sales are expected to increase by 4.9% year-on-year in May 2025, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from earlier estimates, driven by policy support but constrained by external economic pressures [8][24]. 4. **Export and Import Dynamics**: - Exports are projected to grow by 9.3% year-on-year in May 2025, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, aided by the easing of high tariffs from the U.S. [10][31]. - Imports are expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point increase, influenced by low base effects and the easing of tariffs [10][33]. 5. **Inflation Metrics**: - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to decline by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining stable due to ample supply and external economic pressures [11][35]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop by 3.3%, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points, impacted by global economic conditions and domestic structural adjustments [11][37]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Monetary Policy Impact**: The People's Bank of China has implemented measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate liquidity, with new RMB loans expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May 2025, a decrease of 150 billion yuan year-on-year [13][40]. 2. **Trade Relations**: The Geneva talks between the U.S. and China have led to some easing of tariffs, but high tariffs remain a significant barrier to trade, affecting both exports and imports [6][30]. 3. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from government policies promoting consumption upgrades and equipment renewal, although traditional industries face challenges due to capacity reductions and economic restructuring [19][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and projections for the near future.

注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中银国际指出，随着我国制造业向智能制造转型升级，工业软件成为核心基础性工具，驱动制造管理流 程优化和生产模式改变。2024年工业和信息化部明确到2027年将更新约200万套工业软件和80万套操作 系统，覆盖石油、化工、航空等关键行业。2023年中国工业软件市场规模达2824亿元，五年复合增长率 13.8%；2024年或达3332亿元，同比增长18.0%。国家发改委将工业软件更新升级纳入"两新"政策支持 范围，表明政策再度扩围，有望通过政策引导和资金支持鼓励企业加大投入，提升产业竞争力。工业软 件作为智能制造的核心支撑，其升级改造有望直接提升企业效率，降低运营成本，行业短板和生态建设 问题有望改善，行业将迎来新一轮发展机遇。 计算机ETF（512720）跟踪的是CS计算机指数（930651），该指数由中证指数有限 ...

Group 1 - The software industry in China showed a positive performance in the first four months of 2025, with software business revenue reaching 42,582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and total profit of 5,075 billion yuan, up 14.2% year-on-year [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to accelerate the development of open-source infrastructure, particularly in foundational and industrial software, as 97% of global developers and 99% of enterprises are using open-source software [1] - A large-scale equipment update project in the manufacturing sector is expected to stimulate a market exceeding 50 trillion yuan, promoting technological upgrades in traditional industries [1] Group 2 - Industrial software is becoming a core tool for optimizing manufacturing management processes and changing production models as China transitions to smart manufacturing [2] - By 2027, MIIT aims to update approximately 2 million sets of industrial software and 800,000 operating systems across key industries such as petroleum, chemicals, and aviation [2] - The industrial software market in China reached 282.4 billion yuan in 2023, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 13.8%, and is projected to grow to 333.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.0% year-on-year increase [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has included industrial software upgrades in the "Two New" policy support scope, indicating expanded policy support to encourage enterprise investment [2] - Upgrading industrial software can directly enhance enterprise efficiency, reduce operational costs, and strengthen competitiveness, although there are still shortcomings in supporting the digital transformation of manufacturing [2] - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the software industry, characterized by significant growth and technological innovation [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the broader consumption and technology sectors, particularly in the context of the Chinese and U.S. economies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Risks**: The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. is expected to rise, negatively impacting global economic conditions and trade [1] 2. **U.S. Treasury Costs**: The cost of rolling over maturing U.S. Treasury bonds is anticipated to increase, which may affect market liquidity [1] 3. **Tax Cuts and Deficit**: Tax cuts are projected to raise the deficit, thereby increasing the credit risk associated with U.S. Treasuries [1] 4. **Trade Uncertainty**: The uncertainty surrounding "Tariff 2.0" negotiations is likely to disrupt global trade dynamics [1] 5. **Domestic Economic Policies**: The effectiveness of the "Two New" policies in stimulating the domestic economy is diminishing, suggesting a greater reliance on government intervention for future economic growth [1] 6. **Market Volatility**: A view is maintained that global equity market volatility is likely to trend upwards, with a shift from small-cap growth styles to large-cap value defensive strategies [1] 7. **New Consumption Trends**: The focus on new consumption should prioritize sectors that benefit from policy support, accelerating industry conditions, and manageable duration of overspending [2] 8. **Traditional Consumption Strategies**: For traditional consumption, the strategy should involve selecting growth-oriented sectors while considering factors like ROE, dividend yield, cash flow, and capital expenditure [2] 9. **Technology Sector Focus**: In the technology sector, emphasis should be placed on areas with a penetration rate of 10%-15%, evaluating the impact of volume, price, ROE, and capital expenditure trends on profitability [2] 10. **Defensive Style and Structural Opportunities**: The investment style is leaning towards defensive strategies, with a clear trading logic for structural opportunities in the market [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The analysis suggests a significant shift in investment strategies due to changing economic conditions, highlighting the importance of adapting to both domestic and international market dynamics [1][2][3]