关税战走势及全球大类资产展望 - 2025 年宏观中期策略 20260626 摘要 美国债务面临巨大体量、高利息支出和短期债务到期量高等困难，特朗 普政府虽采取博弈、关税战等措施，但未能从根本上解决财政问题，稳 定币的作用有限，难以改善长期美债风险。 下半年美国经济可能因前期透支而放缓，通胀和经济回落或促使美联储 在 7 月至 9 月降息，短端利率可能回弱，但海外投资者减持长端美债， 长端利率仍需谨慎。 今年以来，美股、美债、美元表现分化，反映了定价维度和可替代性的 差异。美股受短期经济影响，美元受长期信用风险影响，全球投资分散 化趋势明显，资金流向亚洲、欧洲及黄金等商品。 美债和美元走势由负相关转为正相关，表明风险溢价上升。美股与黄金 呈现更明显的负相关性和可替代性，黄金与比特币的相关性由负转正， 成为共同避险资产。 人民币资产重估受益于人民币国际化机遇和中国科技军事根基的稳固， 中国被加征关税商品出口份额未降反升，关税战并未削弱中国制造业和 出口的长期优势。 特朗普回归后，美国债务面临三个主要困难：第一是债务体量巨大，美国政府 债务接近 37 万亿，占 GDP 的 122%；第二是利息支出高，美债平均付息 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the gold industry, highlighting the current market dynamics and future outlook for gold prices and related companies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Conditions Impacting Gold Prices**: - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with weak PMI data and rising unemployment rates expected to exceed 4.6%, contributing to inflation risks and driving up gold prices [1][3][5]. - Approximately $8 trillion in U.S. bonds will mature between May and July, representing nearly one-third of the circulating market value, which raises credit risk and benefits gold as a safe-haven asset [1][6]. - Uncertainties in international trade negotiations, particularly between the EU and the U.S., and restrictions on imports from China are increasing demand for gold [1][4][7]. 2. **Supply Dynamics**: - In Q1 2025, global gold supply from major mining companies decreased by 5%, with significant declines in production from Chile and Indonesia [1][9][10]. - The ongoing supply upcycle from 2020 to 2024 has ended, leading to downward revisions in production guidance from many overseas gold mining companies [1][10]. 3. **Demand Changes**: - The marginal changes in gold demand are primarily driven by ETF purchases and central bank buying, with Chinese funds contributing the largest incremental demand [1][11]. - The Chinese central bank's gold holdings are significantly lower than those of other countries, indicating substantial room for growth in gold purchases [1][11]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy for gold stocks, particularly focusing on resilient companies like Freeport and retail brands such as Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [2][12]. - The current year is seen as a pivotal moment for gold investments, with institutional holdings being low, suggesting potential for increased buying as market conditions improve [2][12]. 5. **Market Restructuring**: - The rise in gold prices is reshaping the industry landscape, favoring emerging brands with cultural significance, such as Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji, over traditional channel brands [1][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - The current rise in gold prices is stimulating consumer interest in gold jewelry, with retail performance expected to improve in the second half of the year [1][14]. - New product launches and branding strategies are enhancing consumer engagement, particularly for companies like Changhong High-Tech, which plans to expand its retail presence significantly [1][19]. - **Brand Performance**: - Laopuhuangjin is gaining market share and is expected to continue its growth trajectory, outperforming international jewelry brands [1][20][21]. - Second-tier gold brands are also showing strong potential, with unique advantages in their respective niches and significant room for valuation increases [1][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the gold industry's current state and future prospects.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the broader consumption and technology sectors, particularly in the context of the Chinese and U.S. economies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Risks**: The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. is expected to rise, negatively impacting global economic conditions and trade [1] 2. **U.S. Treasury Costs**: The cost of rolling over maturing U.S. Treasury bonds is anticipated to increase, which may affect market liquidity [1] 3. **Tax Cuts and Deficit**: Tax cuts are projected to raise the deficit, thereby increasing the credit risk associated with U.S. Treasuries [1] 4. **Trade Uncertainty**: The uncertainty surrounding "Tariff 2.0" negotiations is likely to disrupt global trade dynamics [1] 5. **Domestic Economic Policies**: The effectiveness of the "Two New" policies in stimulating the domestic economy is diminishing, suggesting a greater reliance on government intervention for future economic growth [1] 6. **Market Volatility**: A view is maintained that global equity market volatility is likely to trend upwards, with a shift from small-cap growth styles to large-cap value defensive strategies [1] 7. **New Consumption Trends**: The focus on new consumption should prioritize sectors that benefit from policy support, accelerating industry conditions, and manageable duration of overspending [2] 8. **Traditional Consumption Strategies**: For traditional consumption, the strategy should involve selecting growth-oriented sectors while considering factors like ROE, dividend yield, cash flow, and capital expenditure [2] 9. **Technology Sector Focus**: In the technology sector, emphasis should be placed on areas with a penetration rate of 10%-15%, evaluating the impact of volume, price, ROE, and capital expenditure trends on profitability [2] 10. **Defensive Style and Structural Opportunities**: The investment style is leaning towards defensive strategies, with a clear trading logic for structural opportunities in the market [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The analysis suggests a significant shift in investment strategies due to changing economic conditions, highlighting the importance of adapting to both domestic and international market dynamics [1][2][3]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

Group 1 - Recent volatility in the US Treasury market has been exacerbated by Moody's third downgrade of the US credit rating, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the debt-to-interest payment ratio is projected to rise from 73% in 2024 to 78% by 2035, significantly higher than that of peer sovereign nations [1][2] - The auction of Japan's 20-year bonds saw the lowest demand since 2012, indicating potential liquidity risks in the bond market, while the US faces a projected interest expenditure of $951 billion in 2024, accounting for 17% of federal spending [1][2] - The global trend of de-dollarization is evident as emerging market central banks continue to increase gold holdings, with a forecast of 1,136 tons purchased in 2024, marking a historical high [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework, emphasizing an "anti-inflation priority" and adjusting its approach to the relationship between employment and inflation targets [3][4] - The Fed's new framework suggests a reduced likelihood of preemptive rate hikes before the labor market overheats, focusing instead on inflation performance [3][4] - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have diverged, with predictions shifting from June to July, influenced by tariff policies and political dynamics [5][6] Group 3 - The adjustment in the Fed's policy framework reflects its commitment to addressing the "new normal" in the post-pandemic economy, with anticipated rate cuts in 2025, potentially occurring between late Q2 and Q3 [5][6] - The interplay between gold's safe-haven appeal and the Fed's policy expectations is expected to create volatility in the gold market, with key events in June and July being closely monitored [6][7] - The risk of US Treasury market volatility transmitting to global financial markets is a concern, particularly for emerging markets facing increased external debt pressure and rising corporate financing costs [7][8]

美国总统特朗普第二任期执政满百日，从美股到美元再到美债，美国金融市场遭遇多次"过山车"式的振 荡。30年期美债收益率一度录得数十年来最大单周涨幅，"避风港"地位受到质疑。 "债务时钟令人恐惧。"美国"政府效率部"负责人马斯克曾直言。他所说的，是美国"债务时钟"网站显示 的统计数据。目前，美国国债总额已超过36.8万亿美元。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院近期发布一份报告，警告美债的"庞氏骗局"正在进入濒临破产的前夜。 为何说美债如同"庞氏骗局"？ 长期以来，美国通过不断发行国债来筹集资金，政府预算赤字年年增加，截至2024年末，美国联邦政府 的债务率超过123%，赤字率高达6.36%，远超过60%和3%的国际警戒线。 为了支付现有债务的利息，美国必须不断"借新还旧"，这种做法，与庞氏骗局的"滚动资金"模式颇为类 似。 高额债务叠加高利率，美国的偿债压力日益加剧。美国财政部数据显示，联邦政府2024财年债务利息支 出首次超过1万亿美元。这一数字首次超过了国防支出，成为政府的第三大支出项目。 越还越多的美债，正从"传统避风港"成为"风险放大器"。 随着关税战全面打响，美国经济衰退风险不断提升，美债风险也越来越大。高关 ...