Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" for both H-shares and A-shares [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the short-term fluctuations in ASP (Average Selling Price) do not affect the long-term logic of domestic production [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand, particularly in the simulation and other sectors, despite a temporary decline in ASP due to one-time operational issues [2][3]. - The report maintains target prices of HKD 63 for H-shares and RMB 119 for A-shares, reflecting a premium of 103% for A-shares over H-shares [5][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of USD 2.25 billion, a 1.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, but below the previous guidance of 6%-8% [1][17]. - The ASP decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to one-time operational issues and equipment validation problems [2][19]. - The gross margin remained stable at 22.5% [17]. Production and Capacity - The company experienced a 15% increase in wafer shipments quarter-on-quarter, with capacity utilization rising by 4.1 percentage points to 89.6% [1][19]. - The main 8-inch and 12-inch factories are nearing full capacity, indicating robust demand for domestic production [3]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a 4%-6% decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with a gross margin forecast of 18%-20% [21]. - The report highlights limited impact from tariffs on overall revenue, estimating the effect to be less than 1% [4]. Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 7.4%, 2.7%, and 0.2% respectively, due to the Q1 operational issues [5][22]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are USD 9.02 billion, USD 11.20 billion, and USD 13.15 billion respectively [23]. Investment Thesis - The company is viewed as a major beneficiary of the global supply chain restructuring, with a focus on localization and opportunities in the DeepSeek sector [28]. - The report suggests that the company will continue to capture market share in the domestic semiconductor industry, driven by increasing demand [3][28].

Group 1 - The company is holding its 2024 Annual General Meeting to ensure the rights of shareholders and comply with relevant regulations [1][2] - Shareholders and their representatives must complete registration procedures before the meeting, providing necessary identification and documentation [2][3] - The meeting will follow a specific agenda, allowing shareholders to exercise their rights to speak, inquire, and vote [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting will include the review and voting on several key proposals, including the 2024 Annual Report and the Board of Directors' work report [6][8] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -68.26 million yuan for 2024, with a proposal not to distribute dividends due to negative profits [11][12] - The company plans to use part of the raised funds to permanently supplement working capital, amounting to 300 million yuan, which is 29.87% of the total raised funds [17][18] Group 3 - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment in 2024, with R&D expenses reaching 428.46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase [20] - The company aims to enhance its product line and performance, focusing on high-end products and optimizing existing offerings to capture market opportunities [20][21] - The company is actively seeking diverse supply sources and market layouts to ensure supply chain stability amid a complex international trade environment [21] Group 4 - The company has established a strong governance structure, with the Board of Directors and its committees conducting regular meetings and fulfilling their responsibilities [26][30] - Independent directors have played a crucial role in maintaining corporate governance and protecting shareholder interests by providing independent opinions on significant matters [34] - The company has adhered to strict information disclosure practices, ensuring transparency and compliance with legal requirements [33]

Group 1: Economic Context - The ongoing tariff war is characterized as a "protracted battle," significantly impacting global demand and economic growth trajectories for various countries[1] - The trade conflict between China and the U.S. is expected to persist until internal economic issues in the U.S. and global growth concerns are resolved[1] - The tariff war has profound implications for global economic structures, suppressing investment and consumer demand[1] Group 2: Technology and Domestic Demand - By the end of 2024, the core value added of the digital economy is projected to account for approximately 10% of China's GDP[2] - China's KTI manufacturing output has more than doubled from 2012 to 2022, increasing its global share from 22% to 34%[2] - The domestic market for "localization" is expected to expand significantly, particularly in high-tech and agricultural products, as U.S. tariffs reduce the competitiveness of American goods[2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Innovation - The construction of technological infrastructure is essential for enhancing national competitiveness and driving digital economic growth[3] - A robust data-sharing and computing power framework is critical for the advancement of the digital economy and mitigating geopolitical risks[3] - China's technological products are gaining global competitiveness through sustained R&D investment and policy support, leading to a comprehensive lead in patents, sales, and standards in various high-tech fields[3] Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - Foreign investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese technology companies, with many raising their holdings in Chinese stocks[5] - The valuation logic for technology stocks is shifting from "penetration rate-driven" to "market share and localization rate support," indicating a need for more rigorous evaluation criteria[7] - The potential for technology consumption to become a "second growth curve" for Chinese enterprises is significant, driven by a large domestic market and advancements in AI and digital payment systems[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continued focus on AI applications and domestic production, suggesting that the sector's performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year [2][3] - The article highlights the upcoming events such as the release of HarmonyOS 5 on May 19 and major developer conferences from Microsoft and Google, indicating potential industry changes [2] - The analysis of the calendar effect shows that the months of May and June have favorable win rates and median returns, with May having a win rate of 53% and a median return of 0.03%, while June has a win rate of 60% and a median return of 2.26% [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the upcoming release of Harmony PC, which is a significant step in Huawei's efforts to complete the Harmony ecosystem, with over 300 applications already adapted and expectations to exceed 2000 by the end of the year [3] - It is noted that the second half of the year will be a critical window for the Harmony PC ecosystem to expand, with potential breakthroughs anticipated in the government sector next year [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The gross profit margin slightly declined in Q1 due to increased competition and lower market demand, with the incremental business's gross profit margin under pressure [2][3] - The ratio of incremental to existing business remained at 1:1, but the low-margin incremental business in the mechanical seal sector increased compared to the same period last year [2] - The overall economic environment is expected to maintain pressure on incremental business margins, but further declines are unlikely as they are already at low levels [2] Group 2: International Business Development - The company maintains a positive outlook on international market growth, although growth rates may slow in 2025 due to geopolitical factors and increased business volume [3] - The technological gap between the company's products and international brands has narrowed, with some products now surpassing international standards [3] - The company offers competitive pricing and superior after-sales service, enhancing its value proposition in the international market [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Expansion - The company is focusing on market expansion in existing sectors like petrochemicals while exploring new markets such as pharmaceuticals, paper manufacturing, and industrial wastewater treatment [4] - Continuous optimization of internal management and cost control is being pursued to enhance operational efficiency and support market growth [3] - The company aims to explore new business models and develop differentiated products to increase market penetration [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The mechanical seal market has high customer retention, making it difficult for competitors to replace existing products [5] - The value of mechanical seals is relatively low compared to total project investment, leading to high customer loyalty based on reliability and timely after-sales service [5] - The company is gradually increasing its market share against foreign brands in the existing market due to ongoing domestic technological advancements [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its R&D efforts to meet the domestic demand wave and is expected to make progress in high-end products [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of 68.27 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase in loss compared to the previous year [7] - The gross margin has improved due to the ramp-up of high-end products and cost optimization, with a gross margin of 40.1% in 2024, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on high-end chip delivery and expanding its customer base, with significant progress in high-end flagship chip products for large-scale data centers and cloud services [7] - R&D investment reached 430 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product development [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 1.35 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 25.04% [1] - The net profit is expected to improve significantly by 2027, reaching 102.34 million yuan, with a staggering growth rate of 1,270.62% [1] - The company's latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 20.2 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [1]

聚焦科技周期：A 股电子业绩与苹果启示 20250505 摘要 • 中国科技股年初至今涨幅落后于美国科技股，但若从 Deepseek 发布时算 起，中国资产表现更优。资本开支上行周期确认后，中国科技公司业绩增 速有望超越美国同行，但需关注美国 AI 应用落地情况。 • 美股科技公司中，特斯拉、苹果和英伟达表现不佳，而阿里巴巴、比亚迪 和小米等中国公司表现强劲，反映了中国资产重估和 AI 驱动的上行周期机 会。需关注中美关税谈判对半导体行业的影响。 • 公募基金显著增持港股科技七巨头，电子股仓位持续上升，同时规避与苹 果相关的消费电子。进口替代成为投资主线，从 AI 芯片扩散至代工和模拟 芯片领域。南下资金流入港股金额显著增加。 • 半导体设备行业一季度收入增速达 36%，国产化率提升至近 30%。海外 设备公司在中国区收入下降，中国设备公司收入上升，形成剪刀差。预计 设备类股票将保持强劲增长。 • 消费电子领域一季度收入增长 19%，利润增长 23%，受益于苹果提前出 货。但二季度产能利用率可能下降。小米预计将保持强劲增长，与联想一 起实现约 20%的增长。 Q&A 2025 年第一季度科技行业整体表现如何？ ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around **兆易创新 (GigaDevice)**, a company in the **semiconductor industry**, specifically focusing on **customized storage solutions**. Core Points and Arguments - **Customized Storage Advantage**: GigaDevice has a leading position in customized storage due to advanced processes and production capacity. Only a few global players, including three overseas giants and a few manufacturers in mainland China and Taiwan, possess the necessary technology and capacity, creating a favorable competitive landscape [1] - **Focus on HBM and DDR5**: While overseas giants concentrate on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DDR5 technologies, GigaDevice has a first-mover advantage in customized storage solutions [1] - **Domestic DRAM Leadership**: GigaDevice leverages the production capacity of domestic DRAM leaders, which enhances its process performance compared to Taiwanese manufacturers [1] - **Client Proximity and Customization**: The company emphasizes its closeness to domestic clients, which facilitates better execution of customized projects. In the context of HBM export restrictions, there is a high demand for domestic solutions in AI application scenarios [2] - **Strong Adaptability in SoC**: GigaDevice's customized storage solutions are well-adapted to various domestic smartphone manufacturers and well-known SoC (System on Chip) companies, indicating strong compatibility and adaptability [2] - **International Competitiveness**: The engagement with international SoC leaders suggests that GigaDevice's products possess international competitiveness, allowing the company to further penetrate the core mobile ecosystem [2] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Trends**: The increasing demand for domestic solutions in AI applications highlights a shift towards localization in technology supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2] - **Strategic Partnerships**: The company's collaboration with both domestic and international partners showcases its strategic approach to expanding its market presence and enhancing product offerings [2]

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 重点布局 AI 应用及国产化。 从细分领域来看，在当前的位置，综合考虑产业本身的迭代催化、后续的政策发力 方向、订单的落地节奏等因素，建议重点布局 AI 及国产化，以及 eCall 及金融科技。其中，上述领域中，从受 业绩影响的维度来看，对 5 月的风险偏好改善相对更敏感的是 AI 应用及国产化；同时考虑到产业的催化密度， 预计 AI 应用将最为核心。 国内 AI 产业持续加速发展。 自 4 月底以来，国内 AI 产业正迎来密集催化。 4 月 25 日，中共中央政治局就加 强人工智能发展和监管进行集体学习； 4 月 28 日，阿里巴巴发布了最新 Qwen3 模型； 4 月 30 日，小米开源 推理大模型 Xiaomi MiMo ，同日 DeepSeek 开源了最新的数学定理证明专用模型 DS-Prover-V2-671B 。后 续，包括 DS-R2 等在内的大模型进展值得期待。 风险提示：板块业绩不达预期；下游需求存在景气度不稳定的风险；科技创新可能带来短期业绩下降。 注：文中报告节选自兴业证券经济与金融研究院已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详 ...

Group 1 - The PC industry has a mature global supply chain, with most manufacturers acting as assembly plants, utilizing components from various suppliers [1] - Achieving a competitive edge in the PC market requires self-research and development of core components like CPUs and GPUs, which is a significant challenge [3] - Apple's Mac series is highlighted as a leading example of self-developed components, including the M chip and MacOS, showcasing a high level of self-research [3] Group 2 - Huawei is expected to launch a fully domestically produced PC, likely featuring the HarmonyOS as a replacement for Windows, following the expiration of Windows licensing [5] - Huawei is preparing to use its self-developed Kirin series CPUs, which will integrate GPU and NPU, moving away from reliance on AMD and Intel [7] - Domestic suppliers can meet the requirements for memory and SSDs, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies providing fully localized components [8] Group 3 - Huawei has already introduced the high-performance flagship business laptop, the Huawei Qingyun L420x, which utilizes the self-developed Kirin 9000C SoC chip, demonstrating its capability for high self-research in core components [10] - The upcoming launch of the HarmonyOS PC version is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of Huawei's fully domestic PCs, as there is significant market interest in this product [10]