Market Performance - The majority of European and American stock markets closed higher on October 3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both reaching new closing highs [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, marking six consecutive days of gains for both indices [2][3] - The Nasdaq index, however, fell by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points, despite a weekly increase of 1.32% [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan advocated for a more aggressive rate cut approach, suggesting that current policies are overly restrictive for growth [5] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% [5] - Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for supportive monetary policy to prevent pressure on the U.S. job market, noting that inflation remains above the 2% target [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government entered a shutdown on October 1 due to a lack of funding, marking the first shutdown in nearly seven years [7] - The shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, including monthly employment statistics, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's economic assessments [7] Emerging Markets and Capital Flows - Emerging market stocks saw a net inflow of $8.4 billion, marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows, driven by strong market performance [8][9] - Global stock markets experienced a net inflow of $26 billion last week, with technology stocks attracting $9.3 billion, a record high [9] Commodity Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.14% to $3,912.10 per ounce, and silver futures rising by 3.45% to $47.97 per ounce [11] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.35% to $60.69 per barrel, despite a weekly decline of 7.65% [13]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are mostly positive, but show signs of decline shortly before market opening due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has resulted in a lack of economic data, including the crucial Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1] - The Dow is up by 44 points, the S&P 500 by 1.5 points, and the Nasdaq by 0.25 points, with the small-cap Russell 2000 also showing a gain of 6 points. All indexes are in the green for the trading week, with mid-single digits for the month and double-digit increases year to date, except for the Dow, which is up by 9% [2] Labor Market Insights - The government shutdown is impacting the availability of labor market data at a critical time, as there has been a rapid deceleration in non-farm payrolls over the past year. The absence of today's numbers leaves uncertainty regarding whether the labor market is stabilizing or continuing to decline [3] - The trailing four-month average for new jobs filled is +27K, significantly lower than the previous averages of +123K and +222K, raising questions about the future direction of the labor market [4] - The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at a relatively benign 4.3%, but this figure does not fully capture the impact of retiring Baby Boomers and young individuals entering the workforce without meaningful employment, which skews the unemployment statistics [5][6] Market Expectations - Private-sector data remains unaffected by the shutdown, with expectations for the S&P final Services PMI and ISM Services for September to align with prior-month figures, indicating growth as both are above the 50-threshold [7] - The upcoming Q3 earnings season will coincide with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts at their next monetary policy meeting [8]

Group 1: Employment Market Overview - The initial jobless claims rose slightly to approximately 224,000, up from 218,000 the previous week, while the number of continuing claims decreased to 1.91 million, indicating some unemployed individuals are gradually returning to work [1] - The market expected a non-farm payroll increase of about 50,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% [1] - Job growth has significantly slowed compared to the previous year, with only 240,000 jobs added in September 2024, while the average monthly job growth over the last three months is just 29,000 [1] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The stability of the unemployment rate despite reduced job additions is attributed to demographic changes, including more workers retiring or exiting the labor market, along with decreased immigration and increased deportations [2] - The construction industry faced a significant drop in job vacancies, with a decrease of 115,000 positions in August, reflecting challenges from high interest rates and housing affordability issues [2] - Healthcare remains a key growth sector, driven by an aging population, with approximately 10,000 individuals reaching retirement age daily, equating to 4 million new retirees annually [2] Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Insights - The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate forecast indicates a slight increase to 4.34% in September, while the San Francisco Fed's labor market pressure index shows limited states experiencing significant unemployment rate increases [3] - Despite the overall weak employment data, most businesses plan to increase hiring in the next 12 months, indicating a stable labor market [3] - The labor market is characterized by "low growth and structural differentiation," with the healthcare sector expanding while construction and some service industries face challenges, alongside a growing concern over long-term unemployment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown is influencing mortgage rates, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, despite various market factors at play [1][4]. Impact of Government Shutdown on Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in tandem with mortgage rates, has been declining, suggesting that mortgage rates may also decrease [1]. - Mortgage rates have been falling since July but have recently seen slight increases due to aggressive lender actions rather than market movements [2]. - A government shutdown can lead to a drop in mortgage rates by approximately 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points, depending on the situation [4]. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The shutdown may limit access to key economic data, which could shape investor sentiment and further influence mortgage rates [3]. - The ADP report indicating 32,000 job losses in September raises concerns about a weakening job market, especially with the absence of BLS job market numbers due to the shutdown [6]. - The bond market is currently fluctuating between concerns over the job market and inflation, both of which impact mortgage rates in different directions [8]. Predictions and Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that mortgage rates may continue to drift downward after the government shutdown, although various factors could affect this trend [7]. - The housing market is already under pressure from high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, and the uncertainty introduced by the shutdown may further discourage prospective buyers [7][8].

Core Points - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time in 2025 due to concerns over labor market weakness, indicating potential economic slowdown [1] - There is a consensus among the Fed and Wall Street that another interest rate cut may occur at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [1] Economic Indicators - The Fed's dual mandate includes maintaining price stability with a target inflation rate of around 2% and supporting a healthy jobs market without a specific unemployment target [3] - As of August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is increasing at an annualized rate of 2.9%, down from a 40-year high of 8% in 2022, which led to a significant increase in the federal funds rate from 0.1% to 5.3% between 2022 and 2023 [4] - Job creation has been weak, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, below the expected 110,000, and a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, indicating a weaker economy [5] - In August, only 22,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment rate reached a four-year high of 4.3% [6] Future Projections - Economists expect 50,000 new jobs in the upcoming September jobs report, which could influence the likelihood of an interest rate cut in October [6] - The Fed's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections indicates expectations for interest rates, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment over the next couple of years [7]

Group 1: Tariff Policies - The recent tariff policies announced by Trump include a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs, with implementation occurring just four days after the announcement [3][5] - The 100% tariff on drugs significantly impacts India, which exports $27.85 billion worth of pharmaceuticals, with 31.35% going to the U.S., and 47% of U.S. generic drugs being imported from India [5] - On September 30, Trump granted Pfizer a three-year exemption from the 100% drug tariff, causing Pfizer's stock price to rise, highlighting a perceived double standard in tariff application [7] Group 2: Impact on Industries - The film industry is facing a proposed 100% tariff, which could complicate international distribution and negatively affect Hollywood, as over half of its revenue comes from overseas markets [9] - New tariffs on softwood lumber and wood products, including a 10% tariff on imported softwood and a 25% tariff on cabinets and bathroom vanities, will primarily affect Canadian suppliers and could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers [10] - The overall tariff strategy appears to be broad, potentially affecting various industries, with concerns that domestic production may not meet demand, leading to price increases for consumers [12] Group 3: Federal Reserve Response - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, there has been internal disagreement, with some members advocating for a more significant cut to support the labor market [14][16] - The New York Fed President, Williams, indicated support for moderate rate cuts to protect employment and manage inflation, while acknowledging the limited impact of tariffs on inflation so far [16][18] - The Fed faces a balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting employment, with market expectations leaning towards another rate cut in October [18][20]

Group 1 - Boston Federal Reserve President Collins expressed an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on supportive data, amidst expectations of easing inflation pressures next year [1] - Collins reiterated support for the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that maintaining a "moderately tight" policy could help balance risks in the job market while restoring price stability [1] - Recent Federal Reserve meetings indicated that policymakers expect more rate cuts within the year and anticipate further easing in 2026, despite ongoing inflationary pressures from large tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that job vacancies remained stable at 7.23 million in August, only slightly up from the revised 7.21 million in July, indicating a significant decline since the peak in early 2022 [1] - The trend suggests a balance in labor demand, but also indicates reduced hiring by employers and longer times for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, reflecting a softening job market [2] - Consumer confidence data for September revealed a decline of 3.6 points to 94.2, marking a five-month low and falling short of market expectations, with both current and future expectations indicators weakening [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Collins expresses a "relatively mild" outlook on the economy, anticipating an acceleration in hiring as businesses adapt to the new tariff environment [1] Inflation Outlook - Collins indicates that while inflation may remain elevated next year, it is expected to gradually return to target levels in the medium term [1] - She emphasizes the current environment is "highly uncertain," with the possibility of simultaneous persistent inflation and a weakening job market [1] - Concerns about upward inflation risks have diminished compared to a few months ago [1] Interest Rate Policy - Collins is open to further interest rate cuts, expecting price pressures to begin easing sometime next year [1] - She supports the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, viewing it as beneficial for balancing employment and inflation targets [1] - Collins believes maintaining a moderate tightening policy stance is appropriate to restore price stability while minimizing risks to the labor market [1]

杰斐逊说："劳动力市场正在走软，这表明如果缺乏支持，它可能会承受压力。" 杰斐逊称，他预计通胀将在今年之后开始回落至美联储2%的目标水平。杰斐逊指出，特朗普政府的贸 易、移民及其他政策的影响仍在演变，因此其基准预测存在特别高的不确定性。尽管关税对通胀和经济 其他方面的影响低于部分经济学家的预期，但杰斐逊表示，他预计这些影响"将在未来几个月进一步显 现"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美联储副主席杰斐逊说，他预计今年剩余时间美国经济将继续以1.5%左右的速度增长，如果没有美联 储的支持，就业市场将面临潜在压力。他表示，他支持美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点，以在持续高 于目标的通胀风险与就业市场日益增加的威胁之间取得平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at around 1.5% for the remainder of the year, indicating potential pressure on the labor market without Federal Reserve support [1] Economic Growth - Jefferson expects the U.S. economy to grow at approximately 1.5% for the rest of the year [1] - He supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the September meeting to balance the risks of inflation above target and increasing threats to the labor market [1] Labor Market - The labor market is showing signs of softening, suggesting it may face pressure without adequate support [1] Inflation Outlook - Jefferson predicts that inflation will begin to decline towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target level after this year [1] Policy Uncertainty - The impacts of the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and other policies are still evolving, leading to particularly high uncertainty in baseline forecasts [1] - Although tariffs have a lower impact on inflation and other economic aspects than some economists expected, Jefferson believes these effects will become more apparent in the coming months [1]