Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective policies and projects to stimulate consumption and investment [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Demand as Economic Driver - Domestic demand has become the main driving force and stabilizing anchor for economic growth, contributing an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, with final consumption and capital formation contributing 55% and 38.1% respectively [2]. - The structure of consumption and investment is continuously upgrading, with the share of service consumption in per capita expenditure rising from 39.7% in 2013 to 46.1% in 2024, and online retail sales of physical goods increasing from 10.8% in 2015 to 26.8% in 2024 [2]. Group 2: New Requirements for Expanding Domestic Demand - The 14th Five-Year Plan has provided effective experiences in expanding domestic demand, combining it with improving supply advantages and deepening reforms [4]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, requiring a focus on expanding domestic demand to enhance the internal circulation's dynamism and reliability [4][5]. Group 3: Key Strategies for Expanding Domestic Demand - Four key strategies are outlined for the 15th Five-Year Plan: 1. Boosting resident consumption by optimizing the environment and reducing restrictions [8]. 2. Actively expanding effective investment by optimizing investment structure and improving investment efficiency [9]. 3. Implementing major landmark engineering projects in strategic areas such as urban renewal and new energy systems [10]. 4. Deepening the construction of a unified national market by eliminating barriers and promoting the smooth flow of goods and factors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The current focus of China's economic development is to boost consumption, creating a model driven by domestic demand and endogenous growth, with "investment in people" being crucial for enhancing consumer capacity, confidence, and expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in People - "Investment in people" is essential for addressing uncertainties and establishing new development advantages, serving as a foundation for stable economic growth over the next decade [4]. - Enhancing public services and social security through "investment in people" can fundamentally resolve issues of insufficient consumer willingness and weakened confidence, unlocking the consumption potential of over 1.4 billion people [4][5]. - The combination of "China manufacturing" and "China consumption" is vital for a strong domestic market, with high-quality development requiring both a modern industrial system and a service-oriented consumption system [4]. Group 2: Economic Projections - If China's final consumption reaches the same global share as its manufacturing, it could create an additional consumption market of no less than $10 trillion, positioning consumption as a key driver of economic growth over the next decade [5]. - In 2023, China's economic output accounted for approximately 17% of the global total, with projections indicating that by 2024, its share in global manufacturing will rise to 28% [4]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Investment - "Investment in people" should concentrate on key areas that enhance human capital and ensure social equity, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, elderly care, and community development, which are closely linked to improving quality of life [6]. - Recommendations include reforming the fiscal system to prioritize effective investment in education, healthcare, and social security, while removing barriers to labor and talent mobility across regions and ownership types [6]. - The role of state-owned capital should be emphasized as a strategic leader and resource provider in "investment in people," facilitating broader societal benefits from capital appreciation [6].

内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚 在近日出版的《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉辅导读本》中，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁发表题为《坚持扩大内需 这个战略基点》的署名文章，详细分析了"十五五"时期扩大内需面临的新形势新要求，提出将全面落实"十五五"规划建议中提出的扩大内需各项决策部 署，包括大力提振居民消费、积极扩大有效投资、实施一批重大标志性工程项目、纵深推进全国统一大市场建设。 郑栅洁指出，党的十八大以来，我国不断提升国内供给质量水平，持续释放消费和投资需求，内需对经济发展的支撑作用明显增强，已成为拉动经济增长的主动力 和稳定锚。 数据显示，2013—2024年我国经济保持了年均6.1%的增长，内需对经济增长的平均贡献率达到93.1%，其中最终消费支出和资本形成总额的平均贡献率分别为55% 和38.1%，消费的基础作用和投资的关键作用进一步发挥。 同时，消费结构和投资结构持续升级，服务性消费占居民人均消费支出的比重从2013年的39.7%提高到2024年的46.1%；消费新业态新模式加速发展，实物商品网上 零售额占社会消费品零售总额的比重从2015年的10.8%提高到2024年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines China's economic and social development goals for the next five years, emphasizing a shift from investment and export-driven growth to a model focused on domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth [1][12]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's manufacturing sector is transitioning from a cost advantage to a comprehensive competitive advantage, supported by a super-large market, complete industrial chain, and rich talent resources [1][5]. - The super-large market, with over 1.4 billion people and more than 400 million middle-income individuals, is expected to unleash significant demand potential as income levels rise [5][6]. - The plan aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, with an average growth rate of 5.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6]. Group 2: Domestic Market Development - The construction of a unified national market is essential for smooth domestic circulation, requiring the elimination of market segmentation and enhancing institutional uniformity and rule consistency [9]. - Current challenges include "involutionary competition," distorted local investment policies, and market fragmentation, which hinder the free flow of production factors [9][12]. Group 3: Consumer Spending and Public Investment - The shift towards a consumption-driven economy necessitates increasing the resident consumption rate, which has been relatively low compared to other countries [12][13]. - The plan emphasizes the need to increase government spending on public services and social welfare, reallocating funds from traditional investment projects to enhance public service and living standards [13].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com (责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 格隆汇10月31日｜在近日出版的《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉 辅导读本》中，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁发表题为《坚持扩大内需这个战略基点》的署名文章。郑栅 洁指出，"十五五"时期要大力提振居民消费。立足当前，重点是优化环境、创新场景、减少限制。把扩 大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起来，扩大优质消费品和服务供给。取消消费领域不合理或"一 刀切"限制措施。建立健全适应消费新业态新模式新场景的管理办法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for an optimized environment and innovative consumption scenarios [1] Group 1: Consumption Strategy - The focus is on significantly enhancing resident consumption as a strategic foundation [1] - It is essential to combine the expansion of consumption with the development of new productive forces tailored to local conditions [1] - The article calls for the removal of unreasonable or "one-size-fits-all" restrictions in the consumption sector [1] Group 2: Management and Supply - There is a need to establish and improve management methods that adapt to new consumption formats, models, and scenarios [1] - The aim is to expand the supply of high-quality consumer goods and services [1]

Strategic Positioning and Situation Assessment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a critical blueprint for achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing a transition from quantity accumulation to quality breakthroughs[3] - The period is characterized by increased strategic opportunities and risks, with heightened uncertainties and challenges, including intensified great power competition[3] Development Goals - Seven quality-oriented goals are established, focusing on high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and significant improvements in social civilization and ecological progress[3] - The plan aims for a notable increase in the resident consumption rate and total factor productivity, alongside the construction of a unified national market[3] Key Tasks - The modern industrial system is prioritized, indicating a shift in policy focus from technological breakthroughs to the integration of technology and industry[3] - The emphasis on expanding institutional openness reflects a transition from market access to institutional alignment, particularly in the service sector[3] Supply-Side and Demand Balance - The plan highlights the role of technological innovation in generating new supply and stimulating demand, aiming to create a healthier and more stable economic cycle[3] - It emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market to solidify the foundation of domestic demand, ensuring affordability and accessibility[3] Economic System and Market Structure - The "15th Five-Year Plan" introduces a new economic model characterized by domestic demand-led growth, with a focus on enhancing macroeconomic policy consistency[3] - Financial reforms aim to enhance fiscal sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, addressing current fiscal challenges[3] International Engagement - The plan outlines a strategy for expanding high-level openness, with a focus on institutional cooperation and enhancing the competitiveness of foreign trade[3] - It emphasizes the importance of promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and improving cross-border payment systems[3] Risk Considerations - Geopolitical risks and the potential for domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations are highlighted as significant concerns[3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock market is expected to continue its structured bullish trend. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's communique boosts market confidence, but caution is advised when chasing high in the Sci - tech Innovation Index due to its historical extreme valuation. Attention should be paid to the third - quarter report index revenue year - on - year data this week [1]. - The bond market is expected to be bullish in the short term as the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient liquidity. However, without interest rate cuts and with rising market risk appetite, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous growth and should be viewed with an interval - oscillation mindset [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - The market oscillated and adjusted throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both falling more than 1%. The communique focuses on several major themes, which are in line with market expectations and boost market confidence. The current valuation of the Sci - tech Innovation Index is at a historical extreme, and caution is needed when chasing high. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations are constructive, and this week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 30, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank governor said that the central bank will resume treasury bond trading and explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions. In the short term, the bond market is expected to be bullish, but it lacks the impetus for continuous growth [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined on October 30 compared to October 29, with declines of 0.65%, 0.90%, 1.23%, and 1.10% respectively. For stock indices, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines of 0.54%, 0.80%, 1.27%, and 1.11% respectively. For treasury bond futures, TS declined by 0.02%, TF remained stable, T rose by 0.06%, and TL rose by 0.28% [3]. 3. Market News - A total of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, including 250 billion yuan from the China Development Bank, 100 billion yuan from the Export - Import Bank of China, and 150 billion yuan from the Agricultural Development Bank of China, which is expected to drive total project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [4]. 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing their price trends and basis changes from January 2024 to July 2025 [6][8][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [13][15][17]. Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [20][22][24][25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and constructing a new development pattern, with a focus on enhancing the domestic circulation of the economy [1][3] - In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, while capital formation contributed 17.5%, highlighting the significance of domestic demand in economic development [1] - The relationship between consumption and investment is not adversarial; rather, they are interdependent and mutually reinforcing, with consumption being the ultimate demand and investment being crucial for expanding reproduction and enhancing supply capacity [2][4] Group 2 - The article stresses the need to clarify misconceptions regarding consumption and investment, such as viewing them as opposing forces or neglecting the long-term benefits of consumption [1][2] - It advocates for a systematic approach to promote a dynamic balance between consumption and investment, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and improving social security systems to stabilize consumption expectations [3][4] - Investment in key areas, particularly in new fields and weak links, is essential for high-quality development, with an emphasis on major projects that enhance foundational capabilities and long-term benefits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of domestic demand is not merely about the simple addition of consumption and investment, but rather about allowing the continuously upgrading consumption demand to guide investment direction and drive transformation, while efficient and precise investment enhances supply quality and creates new consumption demand, thus injecting lasting momentum into China's high-quality economic development [2][6] Group 1: Economic Contributions - In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, while capital formation contributed 17.5%, indicating that domestic demand remains a solid foundation for China's economic development and response to challenges [2] - As a super-large economy, China possesses advantages in leading with domestic demand and internal circulation, making it crucial to correctly understand the dialectical relationship between consumption and investment to promote an economic development model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2] Group 2: Misconceptions in Practice - There are misconceptions that view consumption and investment as opposing forces, believing that increasing consumption necessarily crowds out investment or that expanding investment suppresses consumption [3] - Another misconception is the separation of short-term and long-term benefits, either overemphasizing the immediate growth from investment while neglecting the foundational role of consumption or assuming that a slowdown in investment growth indicates a contraction in investment space [3] - The tendency to focus on scale over efficiency leads to traditional expansion approaches that overlook the structure, quality, and efficiency of investment [3] Group 3: Dynamic Development Perspective - The aspiration for a better life among the populace drives continuous upgrades in consumption structure, guiding various factors towards fields that meet future development needs [4] - Forward-looking investments, especially breakthroughs in technological innovation, can create new products and services, stimulating new consumption demand, as evidenced by the rise of industries like smartphones and new energy vehicles [4] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Accelerating the filling of consumption shortfalls requires economic policies to focus more on improving livelihoods and promoting consumption, including enhancing the income distribution system to increase residents' consumption capacity [5] - Investment in key areas and weak links remains significant, with a focus on major projects that strengthen the foundation, enhance long-term benefits, and align with national strategies for high-quality development [5] - Continuous optimization of the business environment and removal of barriers to private investment are essential to enhance the confidence and capability of private enterprises [5]