21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 8月21日至23日，全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话备受关注。 目前货币市场交易员预期，美联储在今年9月降息25个基点的概率达到80%。 会议前夕，投资者观望情绪愈加浓厚，亚太市场涨跌不一。东南亚股市多数下跌。泰国SET指数周跌 0.48%，报1253.39点；越南胡志明指数周涨1.04%，报1647.03点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌 0.5%，报7858.85点；新加坡海峡指数周涨0.53%，报4253.02点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨1.34%， 报1597.47点；菲律宾马尼拉指数周跌0.53%，报6281.58点。 亚太其他主要股指同样下跌，日经225指数周跌1.72%或745.02点，报42633.29点；韩国KOSPI指数周跌 1.76%，报3168.73点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨0.32%，报8967.4点。 国际金融论坛学术委员、上海外国语大学金融创新与发展研究中心主任章玉贵向21世纪经济报道记者表 示，上周亚太股市震荡与市场交易主体的观望情绪偏浓存在一定关系，市场交易员押注美联储有极大概 率在9月启动降息。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an increased downside risk in the U.S. labor market, suggesting a potential policy adjustment, with the earliest rate cut expected in September [1] - Market reactions to Powell's dovish signals include expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, with a low probability for a third cut [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury market responded with rising bond prices and an expansion of the yield curve, reaching the widest gap in four years [1] Group 2 - Investors are cautious about the extent of rate cuts and the potential for further increases in Treasury yields, depending on upcoming economic data [2] - The upcoming core PCE price index, a favored inflation measure by the Fed, is expected to show persistent price pressures [2] - Concerns exist regarding the balance the Fed must maintain between a weak labor market and rising inflation risks due to tariffs [2][3] Group 3 - Short-term Treasuries are favored by investors due to expected rebounds if the Fed resumes easing, while long-term Treasuries face risks from future inflation and federal deficits [2][3] - Market expectations for easing policies are seen as appropriate, but any expectations exceeding two and a half rate cuts before employment data is considered overly aggressive [2][3] Group 4 - The potential for rate cuts in a high inflation environment may limit the decline in long-term Treasury yields, as seen in past instances where cuts did not lead to lower yields [4] - If the Fed cuts rates while inflation remains below target, it may signal rising inflation expectations and instability in the market [4] - Strong economic or inflation data could lead to another round of selling pressure on Treasury bonds [4]

【美联储9月降息概率为84.1%】据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为15.9%，降息 25个基点的概率为84.1%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为7.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 48.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为44.1%。可订阅美联储利率观测器。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储每年一度的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，通常是央行官员和学界轻松交流的时刻。他们会讨论一些复杂的 经济议题，然后在大提顿山徒步。今年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会则显得气氛紧张，凸显出美联储未来道路的 艰难。 上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在主旨演讲中暗示，美联储最快可能在9月的政策会议上降息。然而，决策 者之间对这是否是正确的选择存在明显分歧。鲍威尔本人也指出，当前的经济形势给美联储官员带来 了"充满挑战的局面"。 决策者们正努力应对高于2%目标、并且仍在上升的通胀，同时劳动力市场却显露疲弱迹象。这种将政 策拉向两个相反方向的现实，加上未来几个月这些因素如何演变的不确定性，使难度进一步加大。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在会场一侧接受采访时表示： "我们正面临一些相互冲突的信号，而环境非常复杂。我一直说，央行最难的任务就是在转 折时刻把握好时机。" 研讨会也凸显了政治压力对美联储的影响。随着美国总统特朗普寻求在未来几个月对美联储继续施加影 响，这种压力很可能进一步加剧。 今年的安保措施明显比往年更严格，进一步加剧了会场的紧张氛围。美联储警察、美国公园警察和当地 的提顿县警长办公室 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为15.9%，降息25个基点的概率为84.1%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为7.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 44.1%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

市场分裂：广州业主梦"涨价"，深圳豪宅却"跳水" 深圳南山区一位业主，今年4月首次挂牌价高达6200万，并放出"寻找有缘人"的豪言。然而，三个月过去，非但无人问津，甚至连一个还价的都没有。无 奈之下，他不得不一路调低价格：从5800万、5200万、4800万，一路降至3800万、2900万，最终以1900万的价格成交。这相当于直接打了三折！ 这并非孤立事件。在深圳宝安中心区，也有另一套房产，从最初的3600万一路跌至1700万。这些案例无不清晰地昭示着：在"有价无市"的局面下，挂牌价 不过是一串数字游戏，无人接盘，一切都是空谈。 日前，一位在广州颇有影响力的中介向我们分享了一个令人玩味的案例。海珠区一位业主，突然将原本挂牌价47000元/㎡的房产，一跃调升至65000元/ ㎡。其判断依据是，随着中国股市（大A）的行情似乎预示着楼市即将触底反弹。一夜之间，一场看似轰轰烈烈的涨价狂欢拉开了序幕，但这场狂欢究竟 是市场真实回暖的信号，抑或是一场自欺欺人的幻想？今天，我们就来深入剖析这一现象。 涨价的底气：两个站不住脚的幻影 深入探究，你会发现，这位海珠区的业主并非孤例，不少房东都抱持着"逆势涨价"的心态，而他们信奉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium suggests a potential interest rate cut in the coming months despite rising inflation risks in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Employment Market Risks - Powell highlighted the "peculiar balance" in the U.S. labor market, where both supply and demand are slowing, leading to a stable unemployment rate but significant downside risks [2] - July's non-farm payrolls showed only 73,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, with previous months' figures revised down significantly [2] - The rising unemployment rate, which increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicates a cooling job market [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The recent employment data supports a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in September [3] - A 25 basis point cut is seen as the most likely option, allowing for a signal of easing without alarming the markets [3] - Upcoming employment and CPI data will be crucial in determining the timing and extent of any rate cuts [3] Group 3: Global Market Implications - A rate cut in September could lead to a weaker dollar, encouraging capital flows into emerging markets and boosting global risk appetite [4] - The potential for a shift in cross-border capital flows may present a revaluation opportunity for emerging market assets [4] - If the core PCE price index falls below 2.8% in October, further rate cuts could follow, totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [4]

Market Overview - A-shares continue to rise, with major indices reaching new highs, particularly in technology growth sectors like communications and electronics [1] - Industry leaders are achieving historical stock price highs, indicating strong market performance [1] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the realization of profit improvement expectations will be the main driver for the next phase of market trends [1][4] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with genuine profit realization or strong industrial trends, such as resource stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries [4][5] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is enhancing the classification and evaluation system for securities companies to promote high-quality development and support differentiated growth for small and medium-sized institutions [2] Investment Recommendations - Citic Securities suggests focusing on sectors with real profit realization and strong industrial trends, highlighting opportunities in resource stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military sectors [4] - Guojin Securities recommends three main investment lines: industrial metals (copper, aluminum, steel), insurance and brokerage, and food and beverage, as well as power equipment [5] - Industrial metals are expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by historical data showing a reverse correlation with the US dollar index [8] Sector Insights - The robotics sector is poised for a new round of growth driven by policy support, accelerated technological iteration, and successful implementation in various scenarios [8] - Many industries are currently trading at price-to-earnings ratios below the 50th percentile of the past 15 years, indicating potential investment opportunities [7]

2025年全球央行年会于8月21日—23日在美国怀俄明州的山区度假胜地杰克逊霍尔举行，全球投资者的 目光再度聚焦于此。而美联储主席鲍威尔在年会上的讲话，被市场普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号。另 一方面，全球主要经济体央行行长同时发出警告，劳动力风险正成为威胁经济增长和物价稳定的重大挑 战。 鲍威尔立场松动 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期，这几乎肯定是他最后一次以美联储主席的身份出席杰克逊霍尔央行 年会。"短期内，通胀风险向上倾斜，就业风险向下倾斜，这是一个具有挑战性的局面。"他进一步解释 道，"由于政策处于限制性区域，基线前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要调整我们的政策立场。" 在演讲中，鲍威尔指出，风险平衡似乎正在发生转变，并强调就业市场面临的下行风险正在增加。美联 储的政策利率比一年前低了100个基点，失业率仍然很低，目前的情况允许美联储在考虑调整政策立场 时谨慎行事。在基准前景和风险平衡不断变化的背景下，美联储可能需要调整政策立场，这番表态被广 泛视为他为启动降息所做的铺垫。 美股也在鲍威尔讲话提振下收复了此前所有失地，标普500指数结束日线五连阴，道指创下今年以来的 首个收盘纪录。 嘉信理财在市场展望中写 ...

Jackson Hole 会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话对市场产生了哪些影响？ Jacksonhole 会议：更鸽的鲍威尔，更热的市场？ 20250824 摘要 美联储政策转向：鲍威尔暗示更关注就业风险，调整货币政策框架，降 低降息约束，并预警 2025 年美国经济增长放缓，打开 9 月降息大门， 前提是就业数据和通胀数据符合预期。 美股短期震荡上行：历史数据显示，Jackson Hole 会议偏鸽信号通常提 振市场情绪，技术面上标普 500 市场上升广度乐观，预示短期内美股可 能呈现震荡上行趋势。 美元短期或先跌后涨：尽管美联储释放偏鸽信号或 9 月降息，美元可能 先小幅下跌，但随后一个月内或将由跌转涨，长期来看仍有上涨空间。 黄金短期缺乏催化因素：年内降息预期已被充分定价，不确定性收敛， 单边推高黄金价格的催化因素暂时缺失，预计短期内黄金价格将维持震 荡。 关注美国利率调整风险：需警惕通胀中枢上行风险，美联储降息步伐相 对落后于全球央行，中期选举或推动抵押贷款利率下降以提振房地产市 场。 Q&A 在 Jackson Hole 会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放了转鸽信号，暗示 9 月份可 能会降息。这一消息导致 ...