Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant rebound, with Bitcoin reaching nearly $70,000 and other cryptocurrencies also showing positive movements [1][2]. Cryptocurrency Market Performance - Bitcoin price peaked at $70,000, currently trading at $69,977, reflecting a gain of $1,049 (1.52%) [2][3]. - Ethereum increased by nearly 2%, now priced at $2,090.90, with a gain of $40.60 (1.98%) [2][3]. - Dogecoin surged by approximately 10% [2]. - Other notable cryptocurrencies include Cardano (up 8.71% to $0.2971), Filecoin (up 6.25% to $1.02), and XRP (up 6.93% to $1.5053) [3]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 90,000 traders faced liquidation, totaling nearly $200 million [3]. - Breakdown of liquidations includes: - 1-hour liquidation: $7.513 million - 4-hour liquidation: $36.301 million - 12-hour liquidation: $96.5 million - 24-hour liquidation: $190 million [4]. U.S. Inflation Report - The U.S. January inflation report indicates a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December, and below the expected 2.5% [5]. - The core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [5]. - The report has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates three times this year, with a 50% chance of such cuts by year-end [5]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Following a peak inflation rate of over 9% in mid-2022, inflation has significantly cooled, with some economists predicting further declines by 2026 [5]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have risen, with a 30% probability for April and over 80% for June [5]. - Concerns regarding cryptocurrency miners are growing, as investors adjust their positions amid a heavy holding in software, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies [6]. Government Stance on Cryptocurrency - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen indicated that the government will not provide bailouts for cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the lack of authority to purchase Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound following the news of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security entering a "shutdown" on February 14, leading to a rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies [1][3]. Cryptocurrency Market Performance - Bitcoin's price reached a high of $70,000 before settling at $69,739, marking a 3.11% increase [2]. - Ethereum rose nearly 5% to $2,083.8, while Dogecoin surged close to 10% [1][2]. - The overall cryptocurrency market saw a collective surge, indicating a positive market sentiment [3]. Regulatory Environment - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet announced that Congress should pass a federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the spring, which could impact the cryptocurrency market positively [3]. - The inability of the Democratic and Republican parties to reach a consensus on reform proposals has led to the current government shutdown, creating uncertainty in the regulatory landscape [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January fell to 2.4%, below expectations, with core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since 2021 [6]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 7.8%, with a 92.2% chance of maintaining current rates [6]. Bitcoin Price Trends - Bitcoin's price has seen a significant decline from its peak of approximately $96,000 in February of the previous year, with a notable drop to around $63,000 in early February [8][11]. - Analysts predict that if the current bearish trend continues, Bitcoin could potentially drop to $31,000, representing a further decline of about 55% from current levels [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that inflation in the U.S. is currently not a significant concern, with CPI and core CPI showing a downward trend, indicating a potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [2][9][38] - In January, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, slightly below expectations of 2.5%, while core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, also meeting expectations [17][9] - The article suggests that the largest risk to inflation may come from potential additional fiscal stimulus due to pressures from the midterm elections, rather than from the economic feedback loop [2][9] Group 2 - Employment data for January showed a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, with 130,000 jobs added, surpassing expectations of 65,000, indicating a recovery trend in the labor market [26][33] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, reflecting strong demand in the labor market [33][26] - The article notes that while employment growth is improving, the structure of job creation remains concerning, with a heavy reliance on the education and healthcare sectors, which contributed 137,000 jobs, accounting for 105% of the total job growth [27][14] Group 3 - The article highlights that the combination of "employment recovery and soft inflation" may influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that if inflation continues to decline and employment stabilizes, the Fed may have more flexibility in its policy [6][7] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with futures pricing indicating a higher likelihood of cuts later in the year, particularly in July and December [38][38] - The article emphasizes that the current economic indicators suggest a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, as the labor market shows signs of recovery without significant inflationary pressures [6][7]

Inflation Insights - CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, matching the expected 2.5%[2] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] - Month-on-month core CPI rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations[2] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly above the expected 65,000[22] - Private sector non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, exceeding the forecast of 68,000[22] - Unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%[29] - Labor force participation rate increased from 62.4% to 62.5%, meeting expectations[29] Economic Outlook - Employment growth structure remains weak, with education and healthcare services contributing 137,000 jobs, accounting for 105% of the total increase[23] - The potential for inflation to rise is limited without a tight labor market, as wage growth for lower-income groups has declined[9] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with futures pricing in 2.534 cuts this year[36]

Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract settlement price on the Zhengzhou cotton futures market averaging 14,699 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - The national cotton price B index, representing the inland standard grade cotton market, averaged 15,985 yuan/ton, also up by 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - Internationally, the New York cotton futures main contract averaged 63.58 cents/pound, rising by 1.57 cents/pound or 2.5% from the previous week, while the international cotton index (M) averaged 71.25 cents/pound, translating to an import cost of 12,106 yuan/ton, down by 11 yuan/ton or 0.1% [2] - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has expanded to 3,879 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The macro market is seeing improved expectations for U.S. cotton exports due to tariff agreements with India and Bangladesh, while positive U.S. non-farm employment data may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - The U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Domestic consumer prices are showing a mild recovery, with the core CPI rising by 0.3% in January, the highest in six months, and PPI increasing for four consecutive months [4] - The national cotton sales rate as of February 12 is 67.4%, up 21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a better pre-holiday market situation compared to last year [5] - The overall order volume in the industry is relatively sufficient, with many companies shortening their holiday breaks to quickly resume production after the festival [5][6] Cotton Market Dynamics - The global cotton supply is currently loose in the short term but expected to tighten in the long term, with the USDA's February supply and demand forecast increasing global cotton production by 92,000 tons while reducing consumption by 44,000 tons [5] - The Indian Cotton Association has raised its production forecast for the year to 5.389 million tons, significantly higher than the USDA's recent estimate of 5.117 million tons [5] - Despite a general decline in U.S. cotton exports, the NCC predicts a decrease in U.S. planting area by 3.2% for 2026, which may support cotton prices in the future [5] - Domestic cotton inventory is approximately 894,000 tons, showing a slight increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, while yarn and fabric inventories have decreased, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The January CPI in the U.S. is 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%, primarily driven by declines in energy prices and used car prices. The core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3% meets expectations, with moderate trends in rent and persistent price increases in some services. Despite the cooling inflation, overseas markets still anticipate two rate cuts in June as a high-probability scenario due to stable non-farm employment and statements from Federal Reserve officials [2][4]. Inflation Data Summary - January CPI month-on-month is 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and year-on-year is 2.4% (previous value 2.7%). Core CPI month-on-month is 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), and year-on-year is 2.5% (previous value 2.6%) [1][2]. - Energy prices in January decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.3%), significantly contributing to the cooling inflation. Energy commodities fell by 3.3% month-on-month (previous value -0.3%), with gasoline down 3.2% (previous value -0.3%) and fuel oil down 5.7% (previous value -0.8%) [2][3]. Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices increased moderately in January, with an overall month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previous value 0.7%). Household food prices rose by 0.2% (previous value 0.6%), while non-household food prices increased by 0.1% (previous value 0.7%). Beef prices fell by 0.4% (previous value 1.1%) due to tariff reductions [3][4]. - The core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3% (previous value 0.2%) shows a slowdown in rent prices, with rent items rising by 0.2% (previous value 0.4%). Some service prices continue to rise, with overall service CPI increasing by 0.4% (previous value 0.3%) [3][4]. Vehicle Prices and Market Reactions - Prices for new and used vehicles are under pressure from demand-side cooling, with the CPI for used cars and trucks down 1.8% month-on-month (previous value -0.9%). The CPI for new transportation tools rose by 0.1% (previous value 0.0%) [4]. - Following the data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.4 basis points to around 3.41%, and the 10-year yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to approximately 4.06%. The dollar index remained stable around 96.9 [2][4].

1、外媒爆料：美军正做准备，一旦特朗普下令攻击伊朗，行动可能持续数周 路透社当地时间13日独家报道称，两名美国官员表示，美国军方正就美国总统特朗普一旦下令攻击 伊朗后，可能持续数周的行动做准备。这可能演变为两国间前所未有的严重冲突。路透社称，美官员披 露的这一信息使美伊正在进行的外交努力面临更高风险。路透社称，上述官员表示，这一次正在进行的 行动规划更为复杂。其中一名官员表示，在持续的军事行动中，美军不仅可能打击伊朗的核基础设施， 还可能打击其国家机构和安全设施，该官员拒绝透露具体细节。这名官员还表示，美国方面完全预计伊 朗会进行报复，从而在一段时间内形成来回打击与报复的循环。（环球网） 2、金饰价涨到1565元 当地时间13日，美国CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储降息的概率预期上升，美元指数回落，支撑贵 金属资产吸引力。现货黄金涨2.41%，报5042.81美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨2.33%，报5063.8美元/ 盎司。现货白银涨2.81%，报77.34美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨2.10%报77.27美元/盎司。14日，国内 品牌金饰价格随之上调，周生生足金饰品报1551元/克，较前一日1524 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.3%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, matching market expectations but down from 2.6% previously[2] Key Influences on Inflation - The decline in food and gasoline prices contributed to the unexpected drop in CPI growth, with food prices rising only 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.7% in the previous month[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, with gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be near its peak, with recent plans to reduce some tariffs further alleviating inflationary pressures[8] Future Outlook - The market currently anticipates the first interest rate cut in June 2026, influenced by the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve leadership[8] - It is expected that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, resuming a more aggressive rate-cutting approach after the new chair takes office in May 2026[8]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[7] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[7] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the overall CPI month-on-month increase was only 0.2%[3][4] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4][6] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising before declining, and bond yields fluctuating[9] - After the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 Federal Reserve chair transition, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12] - The market currently anticipates approximately 2.5 rate cuts for 2026, aligning with economic fundamentals but potentially underestimating challenges to the Fed's independence[12]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 如何抓住黄金波段机会？聪明钱的选择，黄金+股票一键搞定>> 当地时间2月13日，受美国公布的1月CPI数据影响，黄金价格快速回升。截至当日收盘，伦敦现货黄金 和纽约商品交易所期货黄金价格均重返每盎司5000美元大关。 值得注意的是，黄金从每盎司5600美元附近的历史高位回调后，市场波动性急剧上升。本周国际金价再 次经历震荡行情，在突破每盎司5100美元后于周四跌超3%，随后在周五美国CPI数据公布后收复部分失 地。继1月末金价大跌后，2月份已经连续两周回升，累计上涨超过3%。 美联储降息预期升温，黄金成为最大赢家 数据显示，美国1月份CPI同比上涨2.4%，为2025年5月以来最低增速；剔除波动较大的食品和能源项目 的核心CPI在1月份同比上涨2.5%，增速为2021年3月以来最低。经季节性调整后，1月份CPI环比上涨 0.2%，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%。 1月美国CPI整体延续回落趋势且低于市场预期。 从历史走势看，美国CPI同比已从2022年高通胀阶段的7%以上的水平持续回落至2.4%，通胀降温的大趋 势明确；而核心CPI自202 ...