中国银河证券主要观点如下： 半导体设备 美国国会众议院正式提出H.R.6207号议案——《芯片设备质量法案》，禁止接受其补贴的芯片工厂使用 来自中国的12类半导体设备。该法案的提出侧面印证了中国在半导体设备领域进步迅速，也进一步强化 了自主可控逻辑，是板块上涨重要的情绪催化剂。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，半导体行业在AI浪潮、国产替代、技术创新等多重因素 的驱动下，整体表现相对较好，支撑半导体板块长期发展的逻辑不变。在外部环境背景下，供应链安全 与自主可控是长期趋势。设备与材料在国产替代顶层设计下逻辑最硬，数字芯片是算力自主的核心载 体，先进封测受益于技术升级。 AI芯片对算力和带宽的极致追求，让先进封装从可选项变为必选项。无论是台积电最新推出的完全整 合的封装内光学I/O引擎，还是英特尔将其面向于AI的半导体封装业务部署给安靠科技，都印证了先进 封装是AI芯片的产能瓶颈和关键赋能环节，其战略价值持续提升。同时，存储芯片的需求提升也直接 拉动了存储封测的需求，为封测厂商业绩提供了稳定支撑。 模拟芯片设计 模拟芯片设计板块本周的表现整体相对稳定，国内产业从产能建设、技术攻坚到资本助力均在全方位 ...

我们来给大家分析一下光模块环节的确定性——包括光模块为什么重要、中国供应链为什么始终稳固， 以及既然光模块如此关键，海外企业为什么不自行生产、反而让中国企业来赚这个钱？下面我们就给大 家简单分析一下。 目前，众多大模型竞争激烈，参数量已达万亿级别，部分甚至达到几万亿、十万亿级别。运行这类大模 型需要庞大的GPU集群，因此我们常会听到"万卡集群"这类说法，这本质上体现了算力需求的持续增 长。当前，英伟达是该领域主要的一个方案供应商，此外还有博通等其他企业。在算力架构中，需要用 GPU组成服务器；连我们公司做量化投资，所用的小型服务器中也配备了两张GPU卡。具体流程就是， 多张GPU先组成服务器，多台服务器再连接成数据中心，多个数据中心进一步整合，形成更大规模的跨 数据中心组合。 光模块在其中承担什么作用？核心是数据传输的作用。为什么选择光模块？因为传统的数据连接方式就 是铜连接，但铜作为实体材质存在明显局限：一是传输距离有限，二是数据量过大时会发热，进而引发 故障。而光传输则具备显著优势——我们知道这个世界上没有什么东西的速度比光更快了，速度绝对是 够的，也就足以支持高并发、高运转的数据传输需求。但光信号无法被 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月08日 标配 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人 方逸洋 fyy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.国内晶圆厂产能满载，华为 与阿里新品响应端侧AI趋势— —半导体行业11月份月报 1. 阿里云Q3营收同比增长34%，华 为Mate 80系列与夸克AI眼镜发布 ——电子行业周报（20251124- 20251130） 2. 英伟达Q3业绩与Q4指引超市场 预期，谷歌发布Gemini 3——电子 行业周报（2025/11/17- 2025/11/23） 3. 中芯国际三季度产能利用率与 ASP双增，百度公布昆仑芯五年路 线图——电子行业周报 （2025/11/10-2025/11/16） [Table_NewTitle] 摩尔线程登陆科创板，美光宣布将退出 消费存储业务 业 周 报 ——电子行业周报2025/12/01-2025/12/07 [table_main] 投资 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that even if China's manufacturing sector stagnates for the next twenty years, the U.S. is unlikely to catch up to China's overall manufacturing capacity and industrial system advantages [1] Manufacturing Scale and Economic Comparison - In 2024, China's manufacturing value added is projected to reach $4.7 trillion, accounting for approximately 25% of its GDP, while the U.S. manufacturing scale is about $2.9 trillion, making up around 10% of its GDP [1] - When calculated using purchasing power parity (PPP), China's overall economic scale is $33.6 trillion, significantly higher than the U.S. at $25.7 trillion [1] - China's actual manufacturing output is estimated at $8.4 trillion, which is more than three times the U.S. output of $2.6 trillion [1] Structural Advantages - China's manufacturing density is characterized by a highly concentrated industrial chain, allowing for rapid production and assembly of components within close proximity [2][1] - The U.S. has a low-density, high-cost, and fragmented industrial ecosystem, making it difficult to replicate China's structural advantages [2] U.S. Economic Structure - The U.S. economy has become deeply financialized and service-oriented, with major tech brands like Apple and NVIDIA outsourcing hardware production to Asia [3] - U.S. companies have focused on design, branding, and software ecosystems, leading to a strategic offshoring of manufacturing, which has resulted in a decline in domestic manufacturing capabilities [4] Policy Challenges in U.S. Manufacturing - Recent U.S. policies aimed at bringing manufacturing back, such as the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act, face contradictions and challenges [5] - The U.S. government offers subsidies to attract companies like TSMC to set up factories while simultaneously imposing tariffs on key equipment and components [5] - Political instability and changes in administration hinder the continuity of industrial policies, complicating long-term investment decisions in manufacturing [5] China's Strategic Positioning - China maintains a clear and stable strategic positioning for its manufacturing sector, with consistent policy direction [6] - In response to U.S. technology restrictions, China is rapidly advancing its self-sufficiency in key technologies and components [6] - China employs asymmetric measures, such as rare earth export controls, to counter external pressures [8] Market Dynamics and Case Studies - China has the world's largest single consumer market, providing a complete market loop for domestic companies to innovate and scale [8] - Companies like BYD and CATL have rapidly grown due to the substantial domestic demand for electric vehicles and batteries, respectively [9] Conclusion on Manufacturing Ecosystem - The article concludes that while the U.S. may maintain a lead in specific advanced technology areas, China has established a formidable moat in the breadth, depth, and resilience of its overall manufacturing ecosystem [10] - A significant national-level re-industrialization revolution would be required for the U.S. to bridge the gap with China, which seems unlikely under the current political and social structures [10]

专题：2025《中国企业家》影响力企业家年会 博泰车联创始人、董事长应宜伦在2025（第二十三届）影响力企业家年会表示，博泰成立16年来，汽车 行业变化巨大，对我们而言最重要的是聚焦主业。 他还指出，国家战略非常重要，有很多前瞻思路，企业家要捕捉其中的重要战略机会点。同时，企业要 坚持自主可控，但不能盲目投入烧钱。还要坚持开放、出海，面对复杂的全球环境，更重要的是做好全 球公民，建立全球网络。 博泰车联创始人、董事长应宜伦在2025（第二十三届）影响力企业家年会表示，博泰成立16年来，汽车 行业变化巨大，对我们而言最重要的是聚焦主业。 他还指出，国家战略非常重要，有很多前瞻思路，企业家要捕捉其中的重要战略机会点。同时，企业要 坚持自主可控，但不能盲目投入烧钱。还要坚持开放、出海，面对复杂的全球环境，更重要的是做好全 球公民，建立全球网络。 "除了聚焦，弹药要足，资金要够，作为下游供应商，活下来非常重要。"他说。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：李思阳 "除了聚焦，弹药要足，资金要够，作为下游供应商，活 ...

Group 1 - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $208 billion by Q3 2025, marking the first time it surpasses the $200 billion threshold, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.8%, the highest quarterly growth rate since 2009 [1] - The demand for computing power driven by the AI wave is significantly increasing the value in segments such as servers, AI chips, optical chips, storage, and PCB boards [1] - The next three years will see "advanced process expansion" as a key focus for self-controlled development, with domestic equipment making progress in breakthroughs and validations in advanced processes [1] Group 2 - CoWoS and HBM technologies are positioned to align with AI industry trends, highlighting the importance of advanced packaging [1] - Storage prices have bottomed out and are beginning to recover, with the testing and packaging sector's utilization rates gradually increasing, benefiting from the advanced packaging demand driven by AI chips [1] - In the consumer electronics sector, 3D printing is accelerating penetration, with applications in foldable device hinges and watch/mobile phone frames expected to create new scenarios [1] Group 3 - The potential for edge AI is significant, with headphones and glasses likely to become important carriers [1] - The reduction in costs for AI training and inference is fostering application prosperity, with AI smartphones indicating a new stage of deep integration between technology and hardware [1] - The semiconductor ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Index (990001), which covers A-share listed companies in semiconductor materials, equipment, and end applications, reflecting the overall performance of China's semiconductor industry [1]

Core Insights - The electronic ETF (159997) and chip ETF Tianhong (159310) have shown strong performance, with significant inflows and notable increases in the underlying indices they track [1][2][3] Fund Performance - As of December 8, 2025, the electronic ETF (159997) recorded a transaction volume of 33.48 million yuan, with the underlying index rising by 2.52% [1] - The chip ETF Tianhong (159310) had a transaction volume of 10.41 million yuan, with its index increasing by 2.76% [2] - Over the past 20 trading days, the electronic ETF attracted a total of 29.41 million yuan, while the chip ETF attracted 12.28 million yuan [2] Sector Highlights - The electronic ETF focuses on the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, covering hot industries such as AI chips, automotive electronics, 5G, cloud computing, and printed circuit boards (PCB) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the electronic ETF include major players like Industrial Fulian, Haiguang Information, and Luxshare Precision [2] Industry Trends - In the first ten months of the year, China's smartphone production exceeded 1 billion units, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6] - The integrated circuit production reached 386.6 billion units, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [6] - The electronic information manufacturing industry achieved a revenue of 14 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, and a total profit of 570 billion yuan, up 12.8% [6] Strategic Developments - China Telecom is accelerating the construction of computing power infrastructure and enhancing the adaptation of domestic computing power chips, focusing on AI applications [7] - The company aims to provide end-to-end services and promote green and low-carbon initiatives in its operations [7] Institutional Perspectives - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about AI-PCB and core computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controlled beneficiary industries, citing strong demand and growth potential [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is expected to remain volatile due to global geopolitical conflicts, the US-China technology rivalry, doubts about overseas AI investments, and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, leading to a cautious and neutral allocation strategy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The TMT sector, including the 6G industry trend, domestic substitution, self-control, and military industry development, is anticipated to have a phased impact, catalyzing market opportunities in computing power leasing, satellite communication, military communication, and 6G [1] - The acceleration of commercial aerospace construction by the state is expected to promote applications such as mobile direct satellite connections and Beidou messaging [1] Group 2: Industry Development - The commercial trial of satellite IoT is expected to enhance collaboration among operators, satellites, modules, and chip manufacturers, building wide-area connectivity capabilities across various industries such as marine, emergency, energy, transportation, and agriculture [1] - Satellite networks are seen as the foundation for 6G network construction, aligning with current 6G standards and timelines [1] - The issuance of satellite internet licenses since August marks a significant step towards commercial operation in China, likely accelerating the entire industry chain towards scaling [1] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace - The initiation of the first launch project in the pre-research phase of reusable rockets signifies the rapid implementation of commercial aerospace [1] - The development of satellite internet is gaining momentum, with regular satellite constellation launches expected to increase communication capacity and reduce latency [1] - There is potential for rapid deployment of applications related to mobile broadband direct satellite connections and low-orbit satellite network-linked intelligent driving systems [1]

消息面上看，（1）证监会明确对优质机构实施差异化监管，适度放宽资本与杠杆限制，更传递出支持 资本市场长期发展的信号，或有效提振市场风险偏好。（2）金管局优化险资股票投资风险因子，下调 长期持有成分股风险权重。机构测算举预计释放千亿级别的权益加仓空间。（3）基金经理薪酬改革强 化长期考核与递延跟投机制，有望为市场长期稳定运行奠定基础。 机构指出，历史经验显示，12月中旬至次年1月中旬通常是跨年行情的重要观察窗口。这一阶段既处于 年度政策密集落地期，又恰逢经济数据披露空窗期与流动性季节性宽松的叠加阶段。12月两大重磅会议 将成为行情演绎的关键变量。若政策预期与资金面形成共振，将为行情展开提供有利条件。 外部环境来看，由于本轮调整受到了海外资金面冲击的影响，海外市场流动性环境修复将有助于A股的 进一步企稳。此外中期维度来看在中美贸易摩擦出现缓和后，中美双方都已展开中长期自主可控的产业 链安全建设，自主可控等题材将长期受益。 国泰海通证券认为，中国股市将进入跨年攻势，指数将向上迈出新台阶。12月至次年2月是中国政策、 流动性、基本面向上共振窗口期，股市将逐步展开跨年攻势，上升空间还很大。 布局跨年行情，可以选择行业均 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the following key points: 1) Focus on undervalued industry leaders; 2) The impact of "anti-involution" on the supply side of related sub-industries; 3) The increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][4] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 1-7, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 29 saw price decreases, and 29 remained stable. 41% of products had month-on-month average prices rising, while 47% fell, and 12% remained unchanged [11][33] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $60.08 per barrel, a weekly increase of 1.28%, and Brent crude at $63.75 per barrel, up 0.92% [34] - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,356 CNY/ton, up 3.84% week-on-week and 6.89% month-on-month [35] - DMC prices also rose to 13,700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.48% increase week-on-week and a 23.42% increase from the November 12 low [35] Investment Recommendations - As of December 7, 2025, the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.52, at the 75.42 percentile historically, while the P/B ratio is 2.24, at the 57.66 percentile [14] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and new energy materials [14] - Long-term investment themes include: 1) Demand recovery supported by policy, with continuous supply optimization; 2) Rapid development in downstream industries such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials; 3) Structural reforms in supply-side, focusing on high-performing sub-industries like fluorochemicals and agrochemicals [14] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others [14] - December's "Golden Stocks" are Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology [8]