Core Viewpoint - The fixed income market is facing challenges due to compressed yields, prompting fund managers to adopt new strategies for stable returns, including enhanced trading capabilities and a focus on equity markets for additional gains [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trading Strategies - The importance of trading ability has increased for fund managers in the fixed income sector, as traditional "buy and hold" strategies yield lower returns [1][3]. - The team employs quantitative methods to monitor the duration of bond funds daily, allowing for dynamic adjustments to portfolio duration based on market conditions [2][3]. - The introduction of more trading tools, such as expanding the list of trading partners and integrating third-party trading software, is aimed at improving operational efficiency [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The new mixed bond fund, CITIC Prudential Hui Li Bond, aims to create a low-volatility "fixed income plus" product, with a portion of investments allocated to stable-performing equity funds [2][4]. - The fund manager has established strict operational rules for equity positions, including initial allocation ratios and thresholds for profit-taking and rebalancing [2][3]. - There is a growing emphasis on capturing opportunities in the equity market, particularly in stable and mature active equity funds that employ dividend and turnaround strategies [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to policy uncertainties, but recent interest rate cuts by the central bank may provide support for economic stability [4]. - The short to medium-term bonds are viewed as having higher certainty, while long-term rates are influenced by various factors, leading to greater uncertainty [4]. - The convertible bond market is currently at a neutral valuation, with potential upside due to lower implied volatility compared to underlying stocks, focusing on balanced convertible bonds in sectors like AI and robotics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "fixed income +" funds are experiencing a new peak of development in 2025, becoming an important tool for asset allocation in a complex market environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Growth of "Fixed Income +" Funds - In the first quarter of this year, several public fund companies achieved significant growth in the scale of "fixed income +" products, with some institutions seeing quarterly increments exceeding 10 billion [2][3]. - The "fixed income +" funds are gaining popularity as they offer potential for elastic returns while providing risk buffering in portfolios, making them a crucial asset allocation tool in volatile markets [2][3]. Market Conditions and Opportunities - The first quarter of 2025 saw a renewed expansion in the scale of "fixed income +" funds, with companies like China Europe Fund and Bank of China Fund leading in growth, with China Europe Fund's products seeing an increase of 17.7 billion [3]. - Global stock markets are experiencing fluctuations due to factors like the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S., leading to increased market risk aversion [3]. - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council are expected to provide new development opportunities for "fixed income +" funds, with anticipated monetary policy adjustments aligning with market expectations [3]. Strategy Upgrades and Product Evolution - "Fixed income +" products are evolving from being stable allocation tools to strategy-oriented products, with a focus on low volatility, factor enhancement, and risk budgeting [5][8]. - The first "fixed income +" product launched by the company adopts a "10:90" stock-bond allocation framework, emphasizing quantitative strategies for risk management [5]. - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on strategic investments, such as macro hedging and multi-strategy risk parity, to achieve long-term stable returns [5][6]. Diversification and Refinement - The "fixed income +" products are moving towards diversification and refinement, addressing the balance between returns and volatility while enhancing strategies, tools, and management processes [7][8]. - Future developments in "fixed income +" products will include more refined strategies tailored to different risk-return objectives and the incorporation of various asset classes to achieve stable long-term returns [8]. - Traditional "fixed income +" products heavily rely on fund managers' personal experience, prompting a shift towards industrialized manufacturing processes to ensure performance sustainability [8].

分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 投资要点 A股在关税冲击后，上证综指反弹至3300附近，继续反弹上升的动力减弱，下半周开始呈现小幅回调的态势。随着指数修复较大部分关税 冲击带来的下跌后，市场稳定力量和避险资金对于防御板块的配置力量有所减弱，低波策略本周持续收涨，但上涨动力有所减弱。海外方 面，受到特朗普潜在放缓关税对抗强度的言论影响，市场高度担忧情绪有所缓解，周二开始美股三大指数有所反弹。 量化策略配置观点： 股基增强策略 > 海外权益策略 > 常青低波策略 A股方面，近期受到美国关税等因素影响，市场波动较大，资金避险情绪以及市场稳定资金力量支撑A股行情表现较为稳定，相应红利风 格等防御属性板块表现较优，常青低波策略也在此期间积累了一定超额收益。但随着大部分冲击得到消化，短期内的避险逻辑持续的难度 有所提升，随着避险情绪的减弱，科技成长等板块或相比在本轮反弹行情中已经有所表现过的稳定板块更有机会。因此A股工具策略内 部，短期内依旧存在波动的行情总，常青低波策略可作为打底配置，前期超配低波策略的部分，可以逐步切换至更具有进攻性的增强策 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is stabilizing after the tariff impact, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding to around 3300, although the momentum for further increases is weakening [2] - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment due to potential easing of tariff confrontations by the U.S., leading to a rebound in U.S. stock indices [2][4] - The report suggests that the low-volatility strategy has shown strong performance during recent market fluctuations, but the upward momentum is diminishing [3][5] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The report ranks the strategies as follows: Enhanced Equity Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy [3] - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy has accumulated excess returns during the recent volatile market, demonstrating its defensive attributes [5] - The Enhanced Equity Strategy is expected to gain traction as the market environment improves, with a focus on undervalued companies [5][6] Fund Performance Tracking - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a return of 0.716% this week, while the Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy achieved a return of 1.086% [11] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy yielded a return of 0.030%, outperforming the benchmark [11] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy rebounded with a return of 2.913%, indicating potential for future growth in the U.S. market [6][11] Fund Strategy Construction - The report emphasizes the need for a diversified fund selection approach to meet varying investor risk preferences and market conditions [22] - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund aims to provide stable returns while minimizing volatility, suitable for risk-averse investors [26] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund focuses on global diversification, leveraging trends in technology and economic recovery [21][29]

洪灏3888元见面会：2025《当下市场的 重要策略》会场演讲问答逐字稿 洪总发言： 各位好，很高兴再次与大家交流。这一次我们分享 的核心观点，依然围绕全球宏观环境、中国市场周 期、以及交易策略展开。相比三个月前的那次分享 会，我会结合最新发生的一些事件，补充对全球市 场和中国市场的进一步观察。 关税若成谈判筹码，就意味着政策随时可能生变， 从而使实体经济和金融市场同时面临扰动。即便实 体领域短期内没有显著恶化，但市场价格会先反映 预期，进而增加交易难度。今年3月的第一周开始， 我们就观察到港股、 A 股一些之前表现较好的板 块，乃至欧洲市场、欧债市场的投资者，都受到类 似因素的影响。北美市场就更不用说了：美国一些 大型科技公司从高点至今跌了三四成，市值蒸发上 万亿。它们虽然拥有不错的盈利和现金流，但做空 成本很高，比如在盈透平台借股票做空的年化利息 6-8个点还不算波动成本。所以， 一旦关税或外部 摩擦不确定性加剧，市场定价就会出现剧烈调整。 先谈谈我们目前所处的地缘政治环境。我们中国这 边一直以来讲究"以静制动，以不变应万变" 。这 在一些特定的关键时刻，往往能发挥出意想不到的 稳定作用。比如2020年初 ...

投资要点 A股在关税冲击后有所反弹，本周持续反弹力量有所减弱，本周中证全指小幅收涨0.3%，由于行情的支撑主要来源于大盘权重风格，代表 基金表现的中证主动股基表现较弱些，小幅收跌0.23%。常青低波策略持续受益于波动行情，稳健风格持续受到资金青睐，本周逆市上涨 0.87%，录得超额收益1.1%。 量化策略配置观点： 常青低波策略 > 海外权益策略 > 股基增强策略 A股方面，近期受到美国关税等因素影响，市场波动较大，资金避险情绪以及市场稳定资金力量支撑A股行情表现较为稳定，相应红利风 格等防御属性板块表现较优，常青低波策略也在此期间积累了一定超额收益。A股工具策略内部，常青低波策略依旧有望获得更高的性价 比，当前仍处于相对左侧区域，更适合配置于攻守兼备的策略。可以随着紧张局势有逐步缓解的迹象，再逐步切换至更具有进攻性的策略 中。 海外方面，目前市场已经计价大部分关税比例大超预期以及我国强硬反制的措施，随着关税延期以及市场对于美国进一步加征中国关税的 反应敏感度降低，美股市场或接近短期底部，短期的机会或来源于美国关税态度的边际缓和，对于海外仓位较低的投资者可适当布局底部 区域。但是短期内谈判进展不确定性、政策不 ...

Investment Insights - A-shares have rebounded after tariff impacts, but the momentum has weakened, with the CSI All Share Index rising 0.3% this week, while the CSI Active Equity Fund Index fell 0.23% [1] - The Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy continues to benefit from volatile markets, gaining 0.87% this week and recording excess returns of 1.1% [1] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy is favored over overseas equity strategies and enhanced equity strategies due to its performance during recent market volatility [2] - Defensive sectors, such as dividend styles, have performed well, and the Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy has accumulated excess returns during this period [2] - The overseas market has priced in most tariff impacts, and with a potential easing of tensions, there may be short-term opportunities for investors with low overseas exposure [2] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a return of 0.873% this week, with excess returns of 1.103%, demonstrating strong stability since February 2025 [3] - The Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy also rose by 0.345% this week, with excess returns of 0.575%, but its performance may improve as market conditions evolve [3] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, outperforming the benchmark, with cumulative excess returns of 0.384% since its inception [3] Overseas Equity Fund Strategy - The overseas equity allocation strategy rebounded with a return of 3.463% this week, despite ongoing concerns in the U.S. market [4] - The U.S. economy has not shown significant signs of recession, and technological advancements may drive a new market cycle [4] Fund Performance Summary - Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy: 0.873% this week, -3.214% over the past month, 6.563% year-to-date [5] - Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy: 0.345% this week, -5.363% over the past month, 6.080% year-to-date [5] - Cash Growth Fund Strategy: 0.031% this week, 0.146% over the past month, 3.389% year-to-date [5] - Overseas Equity Fund Strategy: 3.463% this week, -5.819% over the past month, 18.540% year-to-date [5] Fund Strategy Construction - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund aims to select funds with long-term stable returns, focusing on low volatility and drawdown characteristics [6][16] - The Enhanced Equity Fund seeks to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, aiming for higher returns in improving market conditions [8][18] - The Cash Growth Fund focuses on selecting high-yield money market funds to optimize short-term cash management [10][19] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund utilizes momentum and reversal factors to select international equity indices for diversified investment [12][20]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-shares rebounded after the tariff shock, but the continued rebound momentum weakened this week. The CSI All-Share Index rose slightly by 0.3%, while the CSI Active Equity Fund Index, representing fund performance, declined slightly by 0.23%. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy continued to benefit from the volatile market, rising 0.87% this week and recording an excess return of 1.1% [3]. - The quantitative strategy allocation preference is: Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy in A-shares is expected to have higher cost-effectiveness and is suitable for a defensive and offensive strategy. Overseas, the US stock market may be near a short-term bottom, and investors with low overseas positions can consider appropriate layout. In the long term, the US stock market is still optimistic [4]. - Among equity fund strategies, the Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy rose by 0.873% and recorded an excess return of 1.103%. The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Strategy also rose, with a return of 0.345% and an excess return of 0.575%. The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, better than the benchmark. The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy rebounded, recording a return of 3.463%. Global investment still has strong diversification value [5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Toolized Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking - **1.1 Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: It has maintained low volatility characteristics for a long time, with both portfolio volatility and maximum drawdown significantly better than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy started on July 31, 2023, it has achieved significant excess returns, demonstrating both defensive and offensive capabilities [14]. - **1.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy has been running for a short time, and its performance is similar to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves and can maintain a similar trend to the benchmark in a weak market [17]. - **1.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: After double screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, it has continuously outperformed the benchmark. Since the strategy started at the end of July 2023, the cumulative excess return has exceeded 0.29%, providing a reference for investors in cash management [18]. - **1.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the drive of artificial intelligence on global technology stocks, it has accumulated a high level of excess returns. Global allocation can enhance the returns of equity portfolios [21]. 2. Toolized Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - **2.1 Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: The strategy aims to select funds with long-term stable returns from high-equity-position actively managed funds. By adding restrictions on fund valuation levels, it constructs an actively managed equity fund portfolio with low volatility characteristics from both the net value performance and position characteristics dimensions [26]. - **2.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy aims to further meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. It constructs a portfolio with a higher risk - volatility level and offensive capabilities by digging into fund managers with stronger Alpha - mining capabilities in actively managed equity funds [27]. - **2.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: Based on multi - dimensional characteristic factors of money market funds, it constructs a money market fund screening system to help investors optimize the returns of short - term idle funds and reduce return volatility risks [23][28]. - **2.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Based on overseas equity market indices, it constructs an overseas equity allocation fund portfolio by using long - term momentum and short - term reversal factors to select appropriate QDII funds, providing an auxiliary tool for investors to expand global investment [25][29].

Market Overview - In March 2025, the equity market entered a correction phase, while the commodity market continued to experience fluctuations. Early March saw a continuation of optimistic risk appetite, but by mid-March, the market became more cautious due to earnings season and various disturbances following Trump's administration, leading to a market decline. The market style shifted from small-cap growth to large-cap value, with trading focus diversifying towards sectors like non-ferrous metals, consumer services, and defense [3][14]. Equity Market Performance - The public quantitative strategy performance showed varied results across different indices. For the CSI 300 index, the monthly return was -0.07%, with strict constraint strategies yielding an excess return of 0.57%, SmartBeta strategies at 0.85%, and rotation strategies at 0.70%. The CSI 500 index had a monthly return of -0.04%, with excess returns of 1.39% for strict constraint strategies, 1.82% for SmartBeta, and 1.64% for rotation strategies. The CSI 1000 index saw a monthly return of -0.70%, with excess returns of 1.58%, 2.02%, and 2.45% for the respective strategies [4][17][25]. Private Fund Strategy Performance - In March 2025, the best-performing private fund strategy was the CSI 1000 index strategy with an annualized return of 26.20%. The quantitative stock selection strategy followed with a return of 20.50%, while the CSI 500 index strategy achieved 16.24%. The CSI 300 index strategy lagged with a return of only 0.17%. In the relative value strategy, the convertible bond strategy performed well with a return of 22.67%, while the market-neutral strategy returned 10.22% and the ETF arbitrage strategy returned 3.66%. In the managed futures strategy, the options arbitrage strategy led with a return of 9.31% [5][29][32]. Market Environment Factors - The equity market in March experienced a style shift towards large-cap value, which increased the difficulty for quantitative strategies to achieve excess returns. The volatility in value-growth styles also heightened market instability, impacting the performance of quantitative strategies. Despite a decrease in market volatility and turnover rate, trading volume remained within a "comfortable zone" for quantitative strategies, suggesting a lower likelihood of significant declines in excess returns in the short term [6][30][34]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market in March showed mixed performance influenced by overseas disturbances. The energy sector saw oil prices rise due to new production cuts from OPEC+ and increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Conversely, the black metal prices declined due to unmet domestic demand. Gold prices surged significantly as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties regarding international trade and economic outlooks [14][36]. Conclusion - Overall, the report indicates a complex market environment with shifting styles and varied performance across different strategies. The quantitative strategies face challenges due to increased volatility and changing market dynamics, while certain sectors within the commodity market present potential opportunities for investors [30][34][36].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid escalating global political and economic uncertainties and significant asset price fluctuations due to tariff tensions, the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy maintained its low-volatility defensive nature, serving as a stabilizer in the portfolio. This week, the active equity fund index dropped 3.9%, while the Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy only fell 2.7%, achieving an excess return of 1.2% [3]. - The preference for quantitative strategies is: Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. For A-shares, the short- to medium-term view is upgraded to neutral. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy is expected to offer better cost-effectiveness and is suitable for a balanced offensive and defensive strategy. As the tense situation eases, a shift to more aggressive strategies can be considered [4]. - Overseas markets have experienced a significant short-term decline. The US stock market may be approaching a short-term bottom. Investors with low overseas positions can consider appropriate bottom - fishing. In the long run, the US stock market is still expected to reverse and rise, and global investment has strong diversification value [5]. - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy is still worth allocating due to its stability and the potential attention from long - term funds with low - risk preferences. The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy's excess performance awaits a market turnaround. The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy has achieved continuous excess returns, and the Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy has long - term investment value despite short - term setbacks [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking 1.1 Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio has long maintained low - volatility characteristics, with significantly better portfolio volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy's launch on July 31, 2023, it has continued to show low drawdowns during market fluctuations and achieved good returns during rebounds, demonstrating both defensive and offensive capabilities [14]. 1.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio - The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio has been in operation for a short time. Its performance is close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves and can maintain a similar trend to the benchmark in a weak market [17]. 1.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - After double - screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, the Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark. Since the strategy's launch at the end of July 2023, it has accumulated an excess return of over 0.29%, providing a reference for investors in cash management [18]. 1.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio - As a supplementary investment tool in the A - share equity market, since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the boost of global technology stocks by artificial intelligence, the Overseas Equity Allocation Selected Fund Portfolio has accumulated high - level excess returns. Global allocation can enhance the returns of equity investment portfolios [21]. 2. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas 2.1 Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio Strategy aims to select funds with long - term stable returns from actively managed high - equity - position funds. By considering factors such as historical drawdown, volatility, and valuation, a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [26]. 2.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio - The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio Strategy aims to meet the needs of investors with higher risk preferences. It selects fund managers with strong Alpha - mining capabilities from actively managed equity funds. Based on the analysis of fund return sources, a portfolio strategy is constructed, which shows a high holding - period win rate in back - testing [27]. 2.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - A currency fund selection system is constructed by considering various factors such as management fees, duration, leverage, institutional holding ratio, and deviation. This system helps investors select currency funds with higher returns and lower return volatility [28]. 2.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio - In QDII funds, based on long - and short - term technical indicators, index momentum, and reversal effects, equity indices of multiple countries or regions are screened. QDII equity funds corresponding to the selected indices are used to construct an overseas market selected portfolio, meeting investors' needs for global allocation [25].