明优势，增信心。深刻把握优势、用足用好优势，是做好经济工作的基本前提和重要方法。优势何在？ 这就是"十五五"时期"中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才 资源优势更加彰显。"我们要发挥好这"四大优势"，保持战略定力，更加积极有为，不断化优势为胜 势、变潜力为实力。 来源：央广网 坚持和加强党的全面领导是推进中国式现代化的根本保证。形势越是复杂，越要加强党对经济工作的全 面领导，把党中央加强构建新发展格局、着力推动高质量发展的要求落实落细到经济社会发展各方面全 过程，确保一张蓝图绘到底。我们要坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，一手增强消费品供需适配性，一手纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，不断增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。要坚持以科技创新引领产业升 级，构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基；一体推进教育科技人才发 展，投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，不断将人才优势转化为创新优势、发展优势。 即将到来的2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济航船又将开启新的征程。 中央经济工作会议强调，"要坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑战，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。"这简 短有力的话语中 ...

原标题：畅通经济循环打造竞争新优势 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，是事关高质量发展和应对风险挑战的重大命题。近期，经济日报围 绕"打通全国统一大市场堵点卡点"热点问题刊发系列调研报告，引起专家学者的关注和热议。如何科学 把握全国统一大市场的深层意蕴？如何认识卡点堵点背后的多重成因？如何坚持破立并举推动建设？专 家学者围绕这些问题从理论、实践和制度创新等方面探讨答案。 既是聚焦当下的实践问题，也是事关长远的战略问题 市场，是最稀缺的资源。我国拥有14亿多人口、1.9亿户经营主体以及规模庞大的中等收入群体， 是全世界唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家，经济版图纵深广阔，市场发展潜力巨大。聚 焦高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放建设全国统一大市场，回应的是畅通经济循环的现实需要，指向的是 大国博弈中打造竞争新优势的战略布局。 国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩表示，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，是构建新发展格 局、推动高质量发展的有力支撑。通过建设全国统一大市场，促进商品要素资源在更大范围内有序流 动、高效配置，构建促进创新、优胜劣汰的良性市场环境和竞争秩序，能够形成供需互促、产销并进、 畅通高效的经济循环体系。 ...

会上，王凯通报今年全省经济运行情况和明年经济工作有关考虑。民革省委会主委张弓、民盟省委会主 委霍金花、民建省委会专职副主委杨士海、九三学社省委会主委孙运锋、农工党省委会主委黄红霞、民 进省委会主委张震宇、致公党省委会主委司富春、省工商联主席胡汉阳、无党派人士代表郑云先后发 言。大家一致赞同中共河南省委对全省经济形势的分析判断和明年经济工作的安排部署，并就完善自贸 区涉外法律服务体系、推动生物制造与人工智能融合发展、提升开放型经济发展质量和国际竞争力、多 渠道发展新型储能、推动现代船舶制造业提质升级、提升全要素生产率深挖经济潜能、科技创新与产业 创新深度融合、将人口规模优势转化为内需增长动能、文旅强省建设等提出意见建议。刘宁认真听取发 言并与大家深入交流，要求有关部门做好研究吸纳。 12月19日，中共河南省委召开党外人士座谈会暨经济工作专题协商会，深入学习贯彻中共二十大和二十 届历次全会及中央经济工作会议精神，贯彻落实习近平总书记在河南考察时重要讲话精神和关于河南工 作的重要论述，听取各民主党派、省工商联负责人和无党派人士代表对明年经济工作的意见建议，更好 凝聚各方智慧力量，推动经济高质量发展，确保"十五五"开 ...

反内卷预期再度升温，提振市场情绪 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端硅铁、锰硅开工率与产量均双双下降，近期随着产区电价整体上涨，厂家亏损态势加剧，供应端延续下降趋势。 需求方面，钢联数据显示，五大品种钢材产量与表需整体继续下降，生铁产量继续下降，且从高炉检修计划推算，生铁产量下降的 趋势预计将维持到12月底，对原料端需求仍有压力。成本端方面，产区铁合金电价上涨之后近期平稳运行，海外锰矿矿山1月美金 报价整体均小幅上涨。总体来看，基本面呈现供需双降格局，成本端支撑较为明显。 市场 ...

从摆脱贫困到乡村振兴，一程接一程接续奋斗。 有个体命运的改变。"宁愿苦战，不愿苦熬"，这是四川通江县小骡马村脱贫户李国芝在泥墙上写下的决 心。靠着精准帮扶政策，他养牛养羊、种植花椒，一点点把规模做大，从贫困户成了如今的致富带头 人。 实现8亿贫困人口全部脱贫，这是人类现代化历史上的壮举。其福祉惠泽中国人民，其启示惠及世界各 国。习近平总书记深刻指出："中国可以成功，其他发展中国家同样可以成功。这是中国成功打赢脱贫 攻坚战的世界意义。"当共同富裕的步伐越走越坚实，中国人民能更好分享发展成果，中国式现代化也 将因包容性发展而更加受到世界瞩目。 随着全国统一大市场日益成形，区域和城乡之间要素资源流动更加畅通，乡村不再是"偏僻"的代名词， 也可以成为发展的前沿。5G覆盖、快递进村，来自云南保山市隆阳区新寨村的咖啡豆，翻越高黎贡 山，飘香全国、走向世界。在广西罗城仫佬族自治县，直播间搬进竹林，麻竹鲜笋现挖现卖，脱贫 户"云端致富"。脱贫地区立足农产品、着眼大市场，把生态、资源、旅游、文化等比较优势转化为发展 优势，就能打开乡村全面振兴的新天地。 统筹内力和外力，凝聚振兴合力，既要保持帮扶政策的连续性，也要驰而不息激发内 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of China's vast market size and growth potential as a major advantage for the country's development [1] Group 1: Market Size and Growth Potential - China has a population of over 1.4 billion, with the middle-income group expected to exceed 800 million in the next decade [5] - China remains the world's second-largest consumer market, the largest online retail market, and the second-largest import market [6] - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to surpass 50 trillion yuan this year, with domestic demand contributing an average of 86.4% to economic growth [7][8] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Per capita GDP in China has exceeded $13,000, leading to a strong demand for high-quality goods and services [8] - The average annual growth rate of service consumption expenditure is 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing that of goods consumption [10] - The replacement of old consumer goods has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [9] Group 3: Market Integration and Regulation - The establishment of a unified national market is underway, focusing on five unifications and one openness [13] - The number of negative list items for market access has been reduced to 106, a decrease of approximately 30% [16] - The manufacturing sector has seen the complete removal of foreign investment restrictions, with the negative list for foreign investment reduced to 29 items [24] Group 4: Future Economic Focus - The central economic work conference has prioritized "domestic demand as the main driver" for the upcoming year [25] - Plans include expanding the supply of quality goods and services, optimizing policies, and stimulating private investment [26]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current terminal demand in the steel industry remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is relatively prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. Affected by the export license management, the prices of finished steel products will be under short-term pressure, but they are expected to gradually digest the policy impact later. The willingness to store steel for the winter this year is not strong, and large-scale restocking may not occur. The macro level is still in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2] - The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory in ports is rising while the inventory of imported ore in steel mills is at a five-year low. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5] - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while the supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector and the cost increase caused by the increase of manganese ore price and electricity price [11] - The production of industrial silicon is restricted by the high operating rate in the northwest region, and the demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is weakening. The short-term supply and demand of industrial silicon are marginally weakening. Attention should be paid to the subsequent emotional fluctuations and the new supply-side disturbances in the northwest region [14] - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the production ramp-up and start-up expectations of some bases in the northwest. The overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease. The market is in a marginal weak balance, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [16] - The supply of glass is decreasing, but the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue to show a narrow-range shock trend in the short term [19] - The supply pressure of soda ash is gradually emerging with the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new production capacity in Alxa. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3125 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton (1.329%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 57065 tons, a net increase of 8 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.575943 million lots, a net decrease of 28786 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, which is in line with the off-season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Hot-Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.986%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 103404 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.189556 million lots, a net decrease of 10392 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The output of hot-rolled coils decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure is relatively prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, up 1.24% (+9.50), and the position increased by 29159 lots to 518200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 908100 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, and the basis was 66.04 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [4] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase. The demand for iron ore decreased, with the daily average pig iron output continuing to decline and the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei increasing. The port inventory continued to rise, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills reached a five-year low. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 18, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) rose 0.38% to close at 5780 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, and the converted price was 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.83% to close at 5592 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 8 yuan/ton over the futures price [9] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while the supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector and the cost increase caused by the increase of manganese ore price and electricity price [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8645 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+175). The weighted contract position decreased by 15525 lots to 409568 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 555 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton after conversion [13] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of industrial silicon is restricted by the high operating rate in the northwest region, and the demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is weakening. The short-term supply and demand of industrial silicon are marginally weakening. Attention should be paid to the subsequent emotional fluctuations and the new supply-side disturbances in the northwest region [14] Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 59300 yuan/ton, down 3.73% (-2295). The weighted contract position decreased by 24941 lots to 250565 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type compact material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was -6900 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the production ramp-up and start-up expectations of some bases in the northwest. The overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease. The market is in a marginal weak balance, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [16] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of glass closed at 1062 yuan/ton, up 2.31% (+24). The quoted price of large glass sheets in North China was 1030 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331000 boxes (+0.57%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long positions reduced 61105 lots, and the top 20 short positions reduced 69256 lots [18] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply decreased with the cold repair of some production lines last week, which supported the market production and sales to some extent. However, the upward space was limited due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The demand recovery was weak, and the market was expected to continue to show a narrow-range shock trend in the short term [19] Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1193 yuan/ton, up 1.97% (+23). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1147 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+0.57%), including 771700 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 18800 tons, and 727600 tons of light soda ash inventory, up 23800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long positions reduced 27207 lots, and the top 20 short positions reduced 30690 lots [20] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply pressure of soda ash was gradually emerging with the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new production capacity in Alxa. The downstream demand had not improved significantly, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to implement incremental policies in 2026 to boost economic growth, focusing on the integration of existing and new policies to achieve qualitative and quantitative improvements in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Strategies - The primary task for 2026 is to maintain domestic demand as the main driver of growth, with consumption being the top priority. Current policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods have led to rapid sales growth, and the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is nearing 60% [1]. - The government aims to expand the scope of consumption policies from durable goods to more potential service sectors such as culture, tourism, and health [2]. Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - Significant increases in investment are expected in 2026, particularly in new urbanization, technological innovation, and major livelihood projects. The central budget investment scale is projected to rise from 7.3 trillion yuan in 2025 to provide strong capital support for major projects [2][3]. - The introduction of new policy-based financial tools, with an expected increase of several hundred billion yuan in 2026, will continue to support key projects [3]. Group 3: Industrial Upgrading and New Growth Drivers - The government plans to enhance traditional industries through technological upgrades and green transformations, potentially unlocking an additional market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan [3][4]. - Development of emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace is expected to create substantial market opportunities, with projections indicating the potential for tens of thousands of billions in new market scale [4]. Group 4: Policy Coordination and Structural Reforms - The implementation of macroeconomic policies will emphasize systemic and coordinated approaches, focusing on optimizing fiscal spending and maintaining a reasonable level of debt while ensuring effective use of government bond funds [4]. - Structural reforms will continue to deepen, particularly in establishing a unified national market, which includes standardizing market access and competition regulations [4].

河南钢铁集团周口基地的轧机设备正在运转。 河南日报社全媒体记者 杨鑫阳 摄 于无声处听惊雷。一条"黄金水道"的升级，恰似那只扇动翅膀的蝴蝶，正在豫东平原掀起一场重塑经济地理 的变革风暴。 对于通江达海所带来的实惠便捷，企业最有发言权。 12月11日，益海嘉里粮油码头，远渡重洋而来的大豆正通过吸粮机管道，从货船直接输送至企业的巨型筒 仓。 "按一年进口80多万吨大豆，其中一半改走水路计算，一年就能节约运费超过800万元。"益海嘉里（周口）现 代食品产业园相关负责人王昆坦言，"我们就是奔着港口来的。港口发展越好，我们的发展空间越大。" 在益海嘉里展厅，一组时间清晰标记着企业与港口同频共振的足迹： 繁忙的周口港。资料图片 李锐龙 摄 周口，这座曾以内陆定义自身地理格局的城市，如今在沙颍河航道穿梭轮船的汽笛声中，重见千年前"周家 口"的熙攘盛景。数据为证：周口港货物吞吐量从2020年的1860万吨跃升至2024年的5205万吨，5年间增长2.8 倍，占全省港口货物吞吐总量的85%以上。 以港为媒，周口正在回应一个关乎河南乃至中部地区未来的"动能之问"：内陆腹地如何突破山川之限，再燃 发展引擎？答案，藏在这条"黄金水道 ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 883 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40% on December 18. Additionally, a fixed quantity, interest rate tendering, and multi-price bidding reverse repurchase operation of 1000 billion yuan for 14 days was conducted. On the same day, 1186 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 697 billion yuan [1][3]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains generally loose, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remain at 1.25%, with supply near the 100 billion yuan level. Market sentiment is stable, with overnight and seven-day repo rates maintaining low levels [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.65%, down more than 1 basis point from the previous day [6]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a 0.23% increase for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year main contract remained flat. The 5-year and 2-year main contracts saw slight increases of 0.02% and 0.01%, respectively [11]. Regulatory and Economic Developments - The Ministry of Commerce's spokesperson criticized the European Commission's investigations into Chinese companies under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, emphasizing China's strong opposition and commitment to protecting the rights of Chinese enterprises. Ongoing discussions regarding electric vehicles and rare earth export controls were also highlighted [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to expand effective investment, particularly in emerging industries and technology sectors, to address the downward pressure on investment since 2025 [13]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation stressed the importance of promoting a unified national market and enhancing fair competition governance to stimulate economic activity [13]. Bond Market Events - Vanke proposed a 3.7 billion yuan medium-term note extension, while Sunac China expects to finalize its overseas debt restructuring by December 23, involving approximately 9.6 billion USD. Additionally, Baolong Real Estate's domestic debt restructuring plans have been approved [20].