白宫周五在社交媒体平台X上发文称，由于国会未能通过临时拨款法案，资金短缺导致调查人员无法外出采集数据，从而"使我们失去了关键 数据"，"其经济后果可能是毁灭性的"。 白宫指出，这"将是历史上首次"无法公布相关信息。 美东时间周五（10月24日），白宫宣布，由于美国政府关门，下个月可能不会公布通胀数据。 分析人士指出，美国政府"停摆"持续的核心原因在于两党就医保福利支出问题僵持不下，临时拨款法案始终无法通过。 截至周五，共和党人与民主党人在临时拨款立法上的僵局已进入第24天。目前约有70万名联邦雇员被迫休假，另有近70万人无薪工作。 虽然政府仍在停摆中，但美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告于周五公布，以便社会保障局能据此计算数百万退休人员及其他福利领取者的 2026年生活成本调整方案。这份报告原定于10月15日发布。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在另一条X帖子中表示："民主党选择让政府继续关门，可能导致10月通胀报告无法发布，这将使企业、市场、 家庭以及美联储陷入混乱。" 美国联邦政府关门已进入第四周，这是美国历史上持续事件第二长的政府"停摆"事件。 自10月1日政府停摆以来，参议院民主党人多次阻止临时拨款法案 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

（文章来源：新华财经） 近72%（63位）受访者认为该央行今年将维持利率不变，57%（79位中的45位）预计到明年底仍不会调 整利率。而上月调查中预计利率维持至2026年底不变的比例略低于半数。 新华财经北京10月22日电路透调查显示，随着通胀维持在2%目标附近且经济稳步前行，越来越多经济 学家认为欧洲央行已结束降息周期。尽管上月通胀率从8月的2.0%微升至2.2%，但欧洲央行9月10-11日 会议纪要显示其政策"足够稳健"以应对任何通胀冲击。在2024年6月至2025年6月期间累计降息200个基 点后，所有接受10月15-22日路透调查的88位经济学家均预测，欧洲央行将在10月30日会议上连续第三 次维持2.00%的存款利率不变。 ...

Core Insights - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $26.6, closing at $4159.6 per ounce, with a rise of 0.64% [1] - December gold futures reached a historical high of $4190.90 per ounce overnight, while December silver futures hit a record high of $52.495 per ounce, although both closed significantly lower than their overnight peaks [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will adjust interest rate policies based on economic outlook and risk balance, rather than following a predetermined path [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed later this month, with another expected in December, following a previous cut of the same magnitude in September [1] - Despite recent consolidation risks for gold and silver, Bank of America maintains that both metals will continue their upward trend, forecasting prices of $5000 per ounce for gold and $65 for silver next year [1] - On a technical level, December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall technical advantage, with the next upward target being a breakout above the solid resistance level of $4300, while bears aim to break below the solid technical support level of $3900 [1] Silver Futures - The December silver futures price decreased by 8.4 cents, closing at $50.345 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.17% [2]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics, marking his first public appearance since the September FOMC meeting, with investors keenly awaiting insights on interest rate policy direction [1] - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September meeting, with nearly unanimous support, except for new board member Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with one faction advocating for further reductions this year, while another believes the current stance is sufficiently accommodative, adding uncertainty to future policy paths [1][2] Economic Context - The Fed's dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability is currently challenged by competing concerns, as signs of a cooling labor market suggest potential vulnerabilities in employment, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target for the past five years [2] - Powell's focus on the labor market could indicate room for one or two more rate cuts before year-end, whereas an emphasis on persistent inflation would raise the threshold for further easing, suggesting a pause in rate cuts at the upcoming October meeting [3] Data Challenges - The speech occurs amid a government shutdown that has halted the release of key employment and inflation reports, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [1][3] - Investors currently perceive a 97% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, highlighting market expectations despite the lack of new economic data [3]

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The strong dollar bet was based on the expectation of ongoing policy uncertainty in the U.S. and a potential rotation out of the dollar by reserve managers and private asset allocators [1] - Recent global political uncertainties, particularly in Europe and Japan, have shifted the narrative from a weak dollar to a strong dollar, as the U.S. is no longer the sole source of uncertainty [2][3] - The dollar's valuation had reached unsustainable levels after 13 years of real appreciation, making it unlikely to return to earlier highs [4] Group 2: Japanese Market Insights - Investors in Japanese stocks, particularly multinationals, benefit from a weaker yen, which enhances their operating margins [5] - The recent weakness of the yen has not fundamentally harmed the Japanese economy but reflects investor sentiment regarding central bank actions [6] - Concerns about wage stagnation in Japan have been raised, likening the situation to historical economic challenges faced by England [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Considerations - The U.S. government shutdown is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as alternative data sources are available [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have a balanced approach to interest rate policy, with current conditions not being overly restrictive [10] - Any potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to be cautious and not indicative of a long-term trend [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has concluded, with four main candidates being considered by President Trump after interviews conducted by Treasury Secretary Becerra [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Becerra completed interviews with 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, focusing on their views on interest rate policies and the exit strategy for quantitative easing [2]. - The final decision will be made by President Trump, who has expressed a preference for candidates including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, current Governor Waller, and White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, with Rick Rieder from BlackRock also performing well in interviews [2][6]. Group 2: Candidates' Perspectives - Kevin Walsh supports the idea of reducing the Fed's balance sheet, aligning with Becerra's views on central bank reform [7]. - Current Governor Waller has also outlined plans to reduce the Fed's asset holdings, which have expanded significantly due to the purchase of government securities during financial crises [8]. - Kevin Hassett, as a member of Trump's inner circle, shares similar policy views with the President, while Rick Rieder's extensive experience in global fixed income is recognized [9]. Group 3: Market Concerns - The Federal Reserve is currently facing turmoil, with concerns about the independence of the central bank due to Trump's actions, including appointing allies and attempting to dismiss a board member [11]. - Ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence have led to market volatility and increased bets that the next chair will adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [12].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇10月9日｜美国财长贝森特对几位角逐美联储主席职位的人士进行了质询，询问他们对于利率政 策以及危机时期刺激措施的撤销问题的看法。据参与该过程的人士透露，为期数周的候选人筛选会议于 周二结束，共有11名候选人参与其中。候选人表示，他们接受贝森特、财政部官员Hunter McMaster以 及顾问Francis Browne长达两小时的面试。 ...

美国财长贝森特对几位角逐美联储主席职位的人士进行了质询，询问他们对于利率政策以及危机时期刺 激措施的撤销问题的看法。据参与该过程的人士透露，为期数周的候选人筛选会议于周二结束，共有11 名候选人参与其中。候选人表示，他们接受了贝森特、财政部官员Hunter McMaster以及顾问Francis Browne长达两小时的面试。（英国金融时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The home improvement sector, particularly companies like Home Depot and Lowe's, has underperformed in 2025 due to high interest rates and a slowdown in home sales, but may benefit from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Market Performance - Home Depot and Lowe's have significantly lagged behind the S&P 500, which has returned over 13% year-to-date, while both stocks have traded negatively for most of 2025 [2] - Home Depot's stock price forecast is $436.40, indicating a 13.69% upside based on 27 analyst ratings, while Lowe's forecast is $283.83 with a 19.45% upside [5][10] Group 2: Company Performance - Both companies reported solid earnings and comparable sales growth in Q2, but missed expectations due to soft demand for big-ticket projects [6] - Home Depot's revenue is nearly double that of Lowe's, generating just under $160 billion compared to Lowe's $83 billion [8] Group 3: Market Sensitivity - Home Depot's Pro segment, which accounts for over 50% of its revenue, provides some protection against interest rate sensitivity, while Lowe's is more vulnerable due to its focus on the DIY market, which derives approximately 70% of its revenue from discretionary spending [7][10] - The high-interest-rate environment has stymied home sales and renovations, leading to a frozen housing market [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - If interest rates decline rapidly, Lowe's could see elevated sales growth due to the unlocking of 'trapped' equity, while Home Depot's sales growth is more stable [13] - Both stocks face challenges in 2025, but a potential 50-basis-point rate cut could provide a minor rally [14]