海外市场周报 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025年06月09日 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号: S0120523080002 邮箱:xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号:S0120523070007 邮箱:tansy@tebon.com.cn 投资要点: ● 上周全球股市涨多跌少。韩国综合指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体上 涨,纳指、标普 500和道指涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.5%和+1.2%;欧洲市场三大 主要指数集体上涨;亚太地区涨多跌少,仅越南 VN30和日经 225 指数回调。 | 会议,有望带来好消息。特朗普在国内遭遇马斯克冲击、海外对日对欧谈判踌躇难 | | --- | | 进的背景下,做出一些让步与妥协来寻求共识的诉求预计将有所加强。 | | ● 策略应对:布局风偏走高,警惕波动加剧。在全球市场有望迎来中美首轮磋商利好 | | 的背景下,布局风险偏好走高的思路值得关注,但同时也应警惕可能的波动加剧带 | | 来的潜在风险。从大类资产角度看,权益类是最优选择,特别是中美双方的权益市 | | 场，受可能利好的推动最强,而固收类与商品类则相对左侧,美债布局机会佳,金 ...

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance last week, with the South Korean Composite Index leading gains among major markets[3] - The US stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +2.2%, +1.5%, and +1.2% respectively[3] - European markets also saw collective gains, while the Asia-Pacific region had mixed results, with only Vietnam's VN30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices experiencing pullbacks[3] Employment Data - The US added 139,000 jobs in May, with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months[3] - This job growth was better than market expectations but below the 12-month average increase of 149,000 jobs per month[3] - The ADP report indicated only 37,000 new jobs were created, significantly lower than the revised 60,000 from April and the market forecast of 110,000[3] Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns over increasing fiscal deficits in the US[3] - Elon Musk criticized the bill, leading to a public fallout with former President Trump, which caused significant volatility in Tesla's stock price[3] US-China Trade Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic consultation mechanism is scheduled from June 8 to June 13, potentially improving market risk appetite[3] - The previous high-level talks in Geneva have set a foundation for deeper negotiations, with expectations for positive outcomes[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on equities, particularly in the US and China, as they are likely to benefit from potential positive news from trade talks[3] - Caution is advised regarding increased volatility, with fixed income and commodities being less favorable in the current environment[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[3]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-9） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨，连续四周下行， | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度，短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势，策略上，前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，52 ...

EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为99.9% 金十数据6月9日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为99.9%，降息25个基点的概率为0.1%。美联储7月维 持利率不变的概率为83.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为16.5%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.0% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 0.0% | 8.6% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 0.0% | 16.5% | 51.2% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 99.9% | 83.4% | 40.2% | | 4.50%-4.75% | 0.1% | | | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

值得注意的是，在黄金价格开启高位震荡行情之际，白银价格近期持续走高，引发市场关 注。数据显示，本周，现货白银价格累计上涨超9%，一度站上36美元/盎司，为2012年2 月以来首次。 金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。美东时间6月6日，现货黄金价格下跌超过1.2%，收报3309.47 美元/盎司。而在6月7日，国内部分品牌金饰的金价也回到了每克1000元之下。 美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆日前接受英国《金融时报》采访时说， 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能导致美国通货膨胀率持续居高。他警告说，直到今 年夏天结束，美国政策制定者都将面临经济不确定性。穆萨莱姆说，假如美国贸易和财政政 策的不确定性能于"7月消散"，美联储才可能筹备9月降息。 有分析人士表示，这种分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所 致。最近一段时间，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当于1盎司黄金可以换100盎司白银， 已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白银被严重低估，要么黄金被严重高估。此 外，从白银的波动率来看，由于白银的市场规模仅为黄金的十分之一，意味着相当的资金流 入往往会引发白银价格更大的波动。 有 ...

智通财经6月6日电，在欧洲央行（ECB）会议上，大多数成员表示倾向于7月维持利率不变，一些成员 主张延长暂停加息周期。 ...

Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector job growth slowed to a near standstill in May, with only 37,000 jobs added, the lowest level in over two years, and significantly below the market forecast of 110,000 [1][3] - The report shows a mixed picture in the labor market, with the goods-producing sector losing 2,000 jobs, while the construction industry added 6,000 jobs, partially offsetting losses in other areas [3][4] - In the services sector, leisure and hospitality added 38,000 jobs, while professional/business services and education/health services saw declines, contributing to the overall slowdown in job growth [3][5] Group 2 - The annual salary growth rate for retained employees is 4.5%, while for those who switch jobs, it is 7%, indicating a strong wage growth environment despite the slowdown in job creation [3][5] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some economists expressing concerns about the limited hiring and low turnover rates, suggesting that the labor market may not sustain its current state for long [5][6] - Federal Reserve officials maintain an optimistic view of the economy, but there are rising concerns about the potential impact of trade policies on inflation and employment [5][6]

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：在利率方面采取更大胆的举措比长期按兵不动要好。 ...

智通财经6月3日电，英国央行货币政策委员曼恩表示，必须考虑量化紧缩（QT）和一系列利率政策的 影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Mann emphasizes the necessity to consider the impacts of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and a range of interest rate policies [1] Group 1 - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding how QT interacts with monetary policy decisions [1] - Mann suggests that the implications of QT should not be overlooked in the context of current economic conditions [1] - The need for a comprehensive approach to monetary policy is underscored, taking into account both QT and interest rate adjustments [1]