Group 1 - Key Point 1: The U.S. President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which may impact geopolitical relations and economic ties in the region [2] - Key Point 2: The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its April monetary policy meeting, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions [2] - Key Point 3: The UK will report on the ILO unemployment rate for March, the unemployment rate for April, and the number of unemployment benefit claims for April, which are critical indicators of the labor market [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Germany and the Eurozone will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May, which is a key indicator of economic expectations [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will publish the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for April, along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, including both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted figures [2] - Key Point 3: The Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to give a speech, which may provide insights into the central bank's outlook and policy stance [2]

Overseas Macro - The US Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[4] - The Fed emphasized increased uncertainty in economic outlook, with rising risks for both unemployment and inflation[4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in June have been largely absorbed, while the outlook for three rate cuts within the year remains unchanged[4] Domestic Macro - In response to US-China trade negotiations, China implemented new domestic growth stabilization policies, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut[3] - April CPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1%, while PPI fell by -2.7% year-on-year, indicating weak price levels[6] - April exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 1.9%, driven by strong re-export trade with ASEAN countries[13] Risks - Potential risks include US tariff negotiations falling short of expectations, domestic policy effectiveness not meeting projections, and international geopolitical tensions[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Overseas: US tariff negotiations have made progress, with substantial progress in China-US economic and trade talks and a limited trade agreement between the US and the UK. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in May, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, but the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains. Attention this week is on US April CPI and retail data [2] - Domestic: On May 7, three financial ministries held a press conference to implement a new round of domestic growth-stabilizing policies. The market risk appetite was boosted. April price data was weak as expected, and April export growth far exceeded expectations [3] Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% in May, emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation. Powell adopted a "wait-and-see" stance, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, while the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains [4] Domestic Macro - Price levels declined again in April. CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.7% year-on-year. Oil prices and transportation items dragged down CPI, and core CPI remained flat. Industrial product prices were weak, with non-ferrous metals being strong and petroleum and black metals being weak [6][7] - China's April foreign trade data exceeded expectations. Exports were 8.1% year-on-year, and imports were -0.2% year-on-year. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion. The strong re-export trade, especially to the ASEAN market, drove the overall export recovery [13] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Most A-share indices rose last week, with the GEM Index rising 3.27%. Among Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.38%. Among overseas stocks, the German DAX rose 4.46% [17] - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally declined, and overseas bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10Y-1Y domestic bond term spread widened by 4.88 BP [20] - Commodity: The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.84%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.66%. COMEX gold rose 2.65%, and WTI crude oil rose 4.75% [21] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose 0.38%. The US dollar against the RMB fell 0.24%, and the euro against the RMB fell 1.31% [24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: Data on urban congestion, subway passenger volume, real estate transactions, passenger car sales, and steel consumption are presented [26] - Overseas: Data on US retail sales, unemployment claims, bond yield spreads, and Fed interest rate change probabilities are presented [31] This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's April M2 money supply growth rate, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US April CPI and retail sales data [38]

等到今年第四季度，大戏才会进入高潮。 一个多月前特朗普宣布对全球贸易伙伴征收大幅关税，放话要平衡美国巨额贸易赤字。一瞬间全球贸易秩序、国际间商品物流和价格体系、世界贸易和投资 的资金循环都被打破。股市出现大幅波动，美元汇率下跌，长期美债下跌。股债汇三杀的局面逆转了过去几十年来，每当风险资产遭到抛售，资金会进入美 元和美元债券进行避险的操作逻辑。许多美国企业在发布一季度财报时拒绝给出业绩指引，因为他们无法预判剧烈动荡中的经营情况。全球投资者认识到美 国经济的例外主义结束了，这条航船正在驶入未知的水域，远处天空布满了不祥的乌云。 美联储5月议息会议决定维持政策利率在4.25%~4.50%不变。这并不出人意料，因为通过央行管理双重目标的狭窄镜框所看到的经济硬数据依然稳定。但是 议息决议中出现了这么一句话："如果大幅关税被继续实施，它可能造成通胀上升、经济增长放缓、失业率提高。" 美联储主席鲍威尔本可以直接说关税将 引发滞胀，但他怕会吓坏大家。这是美联储能对政府喊出的最大声的脏话，对经济发出的黑色风暴预警。 财经记者提问，"3月份预测今年有两次降息，没了吗？" "你今天不着急，下次该降息了吧？" "经济可能衰退，不能 ...

4月是美股近5年来最动荡的月份。 刚过去的4月是美股近5年来最动荡的月份。华尔街股谚有"卖在五月"(Sell In May)的说法，历史统计也 显示本月是美股全年表现最差的三大月份之一。在4月初对等关税引发资本市场巨震后不久，美国总统 特朗普决定推迟实施90天，缓和了市场担忧情绪。 近一周，美国和英国宣布达成协议的消息获得认可，特朗普也再次发声建议民众买入股票。不过接下来 的谈判进程依然并不明朗，而美联储在货币政策上的谨慎和潜在的经济数据波动风险，可能成为市场风 险偏好动荡的压力。 考虑到关税政策的影响，外界担忧经济将受到严重冲击。短期内经济指标暂未出现大幅恶化，随着订单 的增加，美国服务业的增长在4月份有所回升，美国供应管理协会（ISM）非制造业采购经理人指数 （PMI）从3月份的50.8升至上月的51.6。服务业占经济的三分之二以上，这显示支柱依然稳固。不过企 业为材料和服务支付的价格提高到两年多来的最高水平，这表明关税带来的通胀压力正在加剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的新闻发布会上表示，"虽然特朗普征收的高额关税可能会增加通货膨 胀和失业率，但到目前为止，经济几乎没有显示出这两种情况的迹象，这让我也 ...

关税影响或逐步在物价中显现。 本周三，美联储今年连续第三次将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%-4.50%。面对美国总统特朗普随后再 度施压降息，美联储官员在最新讲话中重申，当前的经济不确定性要求货币政策保持耐心，因为美国政 府的贸易政策增加了前景风险。随着下周的通胀数据出炉，物价可能开始显现关税影响，进而影响未来 降息的时间窗口。 政策立场坚定 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7日以全票的方式决定维持利率不变，称通胀和失业率上升的风险已经 上升，经济前景进一步蒙上阴影。 由于关税担忧推高贸易逆差，一季度美国国内市场总值GDP萎缩0.3%，这是自2022年第一季度以来的 首次下降。市场分析认为，关税将使通胀压力从已经高于美联储2%目标的水平上升。与此同时，这可 能会抑制经济增长，增加失业率。但目前尚不清楚这一切将如何发展，特朗普不断调整关税和一系列贸 易协议即将达成的保证使前景更加复杂。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，"尽管不确定性加剧，但经济仍处于稳固地位。"他并补充 道，"我们认为，目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对潜在的经济发展。" 美联储"三号人物"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Willams ...

*纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅下跌。 周五美股窄幅波动，投资者等待周末重磅贸易谈判的结果。截至收盘，道指跌119.07点，跌幅0.29%， 报41249.38点，纳指微涨不到0.01%，报17928.92点，标普500指数跌0.07%，报5659.91点。道指周跌 0.16%，纳指周跌0.27%，标普500指数周跌0.47%。 市场概述 周四，市场对英国和美国之间达成的贸易协议表示欢迎，这是自美国总统特朗普宣布暂停关税90天以来 的首份协议。 据媒体援引消息人士的话称，印度已提出将与美国的关税差距从现在的近13%削减到不到4%，以换取 特朗普的关税豁免。 需求预期升温，国际油价反弹超1.5%。 *三大股指窄幅震荡，纳指平盘； *美联储巴尔：贸易关税可能推高通胀和失业率； 美联储理事巴尔表示，在预期的经济放缓中，美国政府的贸易关税可能会提高通货膨胀率和失业率。 中长期美债收益率窄幅波动，与利率预期关联密切的2年期美债跌1.2个基点至4.88%，基准10年期美债 平盘。市场定价显示，美联储有望在7月重启降息。 个股方面，特斯拉收涨4.7%，报道称，4月特斯拉在英国的销量被多家中国汽车制造商超越。 明星科技股涨跌互现， ...

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China released the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2025 [1] - Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to study and implement President Xi Jinping's important speech on economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and discussed measures to deepen the reform and innovation of national-level economic and technological development zones [1] - The central bank established a re-lending program for service consumption and elderly care with a quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at encouraging financial institutions to increase support for key sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural and sports entertainment, and education [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the legislative work plan for 2025 to maintain stable and healthy market development and protect the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium investors [1] - The China Futures Association strengthened the management of futures intermediaries and standardized their behavior [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange modified trading rules and published settlement rules for the first time [1] - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments adjusted management measures related to special customs supervision areas, bonded supervision places, and processing trade outside the zones [1] International News - ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that a rate cut in June is necessary for the European Central Bank [2] - Japan is considering exporting next-generation jet fighters developed jointly with Australia, the UK, and Italy [2] - India requested the US to eliminate all current and future tariffs, proposing to reduce the tariff gap with the US from nearly 13% to less than 4% under a potential trade agreement [2] - Fed Governor Barr indicated that the Federal Reserve may face difficulties if inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously [2] - Fed Governor Kugler noted that the labor market may be approaching full employment [4] - Fed officials announced that regular operations of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are forthcoming [4] - Von der Leyen mentioned a potential visit to the US if a specific trade agreement is reached [4]

美国总统在美联储拒绝降息后，8日再次在社交媒体上炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，称其为"太迟先生"，什么 都不懂。彭博社指出，美总统的言论可能令当前摇摆不定的市场进一步陷入不安。 8日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文称，"太迟先生"杰罗姆·鲍威尔什么都不懂。石油和能源价格在下降， 几乎所有的成本（包括食品和鸡蛋）都在下跌。根本没有什么通胀，关税收入正在涌入美国——这与"太 迟先生"说的恰恰相反！ 美媒：政客追求短期繁荣 不惜牺牲长远利益 彭博社则在8日报道称，特朗普的言论再次挑战了美联储的独立性，此举可能令已经因美总统不断变化的 关税计划而摇摆不定的市场进一步陷入不安。彭博社还指出，这位美国总统多次就是否解雇鲍威尔发出矛 盾信号。上个月，特朗普公开说考虑解雇鲍威尔，其首席经济顾问称政府正在研究总统是否具备此权限 ——但特朗普随后又说无意采取行动。 鲍威尔：关税战带来通胀和失业上涨风险 7日，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储决定维持利率不变，称特朗普的关税战已经带来通胀和失业率上升的 风险。 美联储主席 鲍威尔：7日，联邦公开市场委员会决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变。失业率上升和通胀 上升的风险已经提高，到目前为止宣布的关税上调 ...

"在我看来，更高的关税可能导致全球供应链中断，并对通胀造成持续的上行压力，"巴尔表示。他还指 出，企业需要时间来调整分销网络。一些供应商，尤其是小企业，可能无法足够快地适应，可能会倒 闭，这加剧了供应链的混乱。巴尔说："我同样担心，随着经济放缓，关税将导致失业率上升。""因 此，如果我们同时看到通胀和失业率上升，美联储可能会陷入困境。" 威廉姆斯直言，很难预测美联储的下一步行动。他还表示，央行的独立性能带来更好的结果。 瑞典北欧斯安银行预计，美联储最终将把重点放在支持经济增长上，并忽略通胀的暂时上升。如果长期 通胀预期保持在可控范围内，并与通胀目标保持一致，美联储应该能够忽略关税造成的暂时性通胀冲 击。还有一种可能性是，关税不确定性对经济的短期影响将超过当前预期。但就目前而言，美联储认为 此举对经济的影响有限，贸易谈判也有一些进展的迹象。 美元汇率方面，ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，本周后半段美元表现强劲，主要得益于贸易方面 的积极消息和美联储的鹰派立场。目前市场预计美联储将在年底前降息68个基点，首次降息可能在9 月。无论如何，美国贸易动态仍是美元的最重要驱动力，美元的看涨势头需要持 ...