Core Viewpoint - The latest UK employment data indicates a softening labor market, but it is not severe enough to prompt the Bank of England to make substantial adjustments to interest rate forecasts [1] Employment Data Summary - The unemployment rate increased from 4.6% to 4.7% [1] - The number of employed individuals reported by HMRC decreased by 41,000 [1] - Previous months' employment data was revised from a loss of 109,000 to a loss of 25,000, which is a notable improvement [1] Currency Impact Summary - The trend of weak data is likely to continue exerting pressure on the British pound [1] - Short positions on the pound are expected to remain dominant, particularly against the euro [1] - The decline in the euro/pound exchange rate may be limited, as the path of least resistance appears to favor upward movement [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales of consumer goods in June 2025 reached CNY 42,287 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below the consensus expectation of 5.56% [5][10] - The report indicates that the online retail sector is growing rapidly, while offline retail remains stable, with online sales increasing by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the impact of national subsidy policies on retail categories, with essential and discretionary goods showing continued growth [5][27] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - In Q2 2025, retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with June showing a growth of 4.8%. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 245,458 billion, marking a 5.0% increase [5][10] - Urban retail sales outpaced rural sales for four consecutive months, with urban sales in June at CNY 36,559 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [12][10] By Category - Retail sales of goods outperformed the restaurant sector, with June's total for restaurant services at CNY 4,708 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while goods retail reached CNY 37,580 billion, growing by 5.3% [22][5] - The report notes that national subsidy policies are effectively driving growth in essential and discretionary categories, with June's year-on-year growth rates for essential and discretionary goods at 5.92% and 2.15%, respectively [27][29] Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -3.7% [33][36] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with non-food prices showing a slight increase [35][36] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June 2025, unchanged from the previous month [43][44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the white liquor sector may see demand recovery due to expanding domestic demand policies, despite short-term weakness from a "ban on alcohol" [51] - It also recommends focusing on core leading companies in the cosmetics sector, which are expected to perform well due to strong domestic growth and increasing market share [51]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong for the period from April to June 2025 is 3.5%, unchanged from the previous period [1] - The underemployment rate remains stable at 1.4% during the same timeframe [1] - Total employment decreased from 3,664,700 to 3,657,300, a reduction of approximately 7,400 individuals [1] Group 2 - The total labor force also declined from 3,800,500 to 3,793,500, a decrease of about 7,000 individuals [1] - The number of unemployed individuals (not seasonally adjusted) is reported at 136,200, which is similar to the previous figure of 135,800 [1] - The number of underemployed individuals decreased from 53,600 to 52,600, a reduction of about 1,000 [1] Group 3 - The unemployment rates across different industries showed varied changes, with declines noted in the arts, entertainment, and recreation sectors, as well as in professional and business services [1] - Conversely, increases were observed in the construction and food service sectors [1] - The Secretary for Labour and Welfare indicated that the trends in unemployment rates will differ across industries due to ongoing transformations [2]

中国香港6月三个月失业率 3.5%，前值3.50%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in the UK for June is reported at 4.54%, slightly up from the previous value of 4.5% [1] Group 1 - The current unemployment rate indicates a marginal increase, suggesting potential shifts in the labor market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the UK for June is reported at 4.54%, an increase from the previous value of 4.50% [1]

Group 1 - The UK's three-month ILO unemployment rate for May is reported at 4.7%, which is higher than the expected rate of 4.6% and the previous value of 4.60% [1]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding the expected 5.1% and up from 5.4% in Q1 2025[6] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52.3% in Q2, an increase from Q1[7] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year[7] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.6%[6] - Manufacturing sector growth was particularly strong, with a 7.4% increase in June[13] - High-tech industries led the growth with a 9.7% year-on-year increase[16] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in June grew by 4.8%, below the expected 5.6% and down from 6.4% in May[6] - The contribution of key consumer categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, remained strong with growth rates above 10%[23] - Restaurant revenue growth significantly declined to 0.9%, down 5 percentage points from the previous value[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, below the expected 3.7%[6] - Manufacturing investment growth fell to 5.1% in June, down from 7.8% previously[30] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector[35] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, unchanged from the previous value[6] - The average unemployment rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease from Q1[38] - There was a divergence in unemployment rates between local and migrant workers, with local unemployment rising slightly to 5.1%[38]

Unemployment Rates by Age Group - The national urban unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group (excluding students) decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% [1] - The national urban unemployment rate for the 25-29 age group (excluding students) decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.7% [1] - The national urban unemployment rate for the 30-59 age group (excluding students) decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% [1]

| 三 H = 9 | | | 时间 : | 最近13个月 | A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 = | 2025年6月 = | 2025年5月 = | 2025年4月 = | 2025年3月 = | 2025年2 | | ● 全国城镇调查失业率(%) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | | | 1 31个大城市城镇调查失业率(%) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | | | 全国城镇本地户籍劳动力失业率(%) | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | | | 全国城镇外来户籍劳动力失业率(%) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4. 8 | 4. 9 | | | 企业就业人员周平均工作时间(小时) | 48. 5 | 48. 5 | 48. 3 | 48. 5 | ਰੋ | | 全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动力失业率(%) | 14. 5 | 14.9 | 15.8 | 16. 5 | | | 全国城镇不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率(%) | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | | | ...