今年以来黄金表现强劲，出乎不少机构的预料，现货黄金盘中一度触及3499.45美元/吨，年内涨幅逼近30%。华尔街虽然连续"撕报告"，但是仍然难赶上黄 金的上涨幅度。 道富环球投资管理对金价最新的中期走势持乐观态度，认为在多种策略性因素及结构性因素推动下，金价前景仍然乐观。该行预期今年金价下限将会到更高 水平，由原本的每盎司2000美元，上升至3000美元。今年余下时间，黄金市场将过渡到3000美元以上的波动区间，预期未来12至24个月内，可测试4000至 5000美元。 道富环球指出，金价上行受五大主题支撑，分别是（1）黄金ETF流入金额潜在上升；（2）中国买入黄金的消费者增加；（3）央行对黄金需求保持强劲； （4）替代性货币需求及全球债务上升，支持金价上涨；（5）美联储仍会减息。 此外，一些策略性因素如贸易政策的不确定性、经济衰退风险也在推动金价。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 广州报道黄金盘中跳水，盘中已经跌破3400美元/盎司。 道富环球表示，基准情境下，虽然包括中美在内的高关税税率已下降，但贸易政策的不确定性，加上地缘政治紧张局势仍会在今年余下时间占主导地位，同 时通胀压力仍在，限制美联储减息空间。 ...

摩根大通资产与财富管理部门总裁Erdoes：美国将面临通胀压力，但美国消费者状况良好。 ...

疲软的经济数据和贸易不确定性使得市场对美联储降息的预期显著升温。根据LSEG数据，市场预计美 联储在9月会议上降息至少25个基点的可能性高达77%。特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降低利 率，认为当前的经济环境需要更宽松的货币政策来刺激增长。Monex USA交易主管Juan Perez表示， ADP就业数据的意外疲软表明劳动力市场正在放缓，这对美元构成不利影响，同时也为降息预期提供了 依据。 尽管美联储官员普遍表示将保持耐心，观察关税对通胀的潜在影响，但ISM服务投入物价指数从4月的 65.1升至68.7，创下2022年11月以来最高水平，显示通胀压力依然存在。BondBloxx投资管理公司合伙 人JoAnne Bianco指出，当前市场仍对降息时点存在分歧，关税对通胀的潜在影响尚未完全显现。这种 复杂背景下，黄金作为对冲通胀和货币政策不确定性的资产，受到越来越多投资者的青睐。 摘要周四（6月5日）欧市盘中，国际黄金区间维持震荡走势，截至发稿报3373.55美元/盎司，涨幅 0.03%，今日金价开盘于3373.55美元/盎司，最高上探3383.91美元/盎司，最低触及3360.88美元/盎司。 【黄金行情 ...

Economic Activity - The latest Beige Book indicates a general slowdown in economic activity across the U.S. since the last report, with half of the regions reporting slight to moderate declines [1][4] - Labor market conditions show a cooling trend, with most regions reporting decreased labor demand, reduced hours, hiring freezes, and plans for layoffs [1][3] Labor Market - Overall employment levels have remained stable, but there is evidence of a shift in labor supply and demand dynamics, with increased job applicants and reduced employee turnover [1][3] - Wage growth continues at a moderate pace, with easing wage pressures, which is a positive sign for alleviating service sector inflation [2][3] Price and Cost Pressures - Prices have risen at a moderate pace, but there are expectations for faster increases in costs and prices in the future, primarily due to higher tariffs [2][4] - Businesses are adopting various strategies to cope with rising costs, including raising prices, compressing profit margins, or adding temporary surcharges [2][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing reports a general decline in activity, with reduced new orders and increased inventories, influenced by uncertainty and tariffs [3][4] - Consumer spending shows mixed performance, particularly weak in non-essential goods, with some consumers making preemptive purchases to avoid future tariffs [3][4] - The real estate sector is experiencing stagnation or decline in residential sales and new construction, with increased inventory and slowing price growth [3][4] Financial Services - Loan demand is generally stable or weakening, with uncertainty suppressing trading activity, while credit standards remain stable or slightly relaxed [3][4] Market Implications - The economic slowdown and corporate profit pressures may pose downside risks for the stock market, while a cooling labor market could signal potential easing [5][6] - In the bond market, the economic slowdown may support lower bond yields, but inflation concerns from tariffs could limit this downward movement [5][6] - Commodity demand may be suppressed due to economic activity slowdown, but supply chain adjustments and trade policy changes could lead to structural impacts [7][8] Uncertainty and Future Outlook - The overarching theme of uncertainty, particularly related to trade policy, is a significant barrier to economic vitality, affecting both corporate decision-making and consumer sentiment [4][8] - The future economic trajectory will largely depend on how these uncertainties evolve and the impact of trade policies [9]

加拿大央行：将继续评估通胀压力的下行和上行时机及其强度。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mild increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by only 0.1% for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.1%, aligning with Dow Jones' previous forecast but 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimated annual inflation rate [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, showed stable monthly and annual growth rates of 0.1% and 2.5% respectively, slightly below market expectations of 0.1% and 2.6%, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [3] - Economists express concerns about potential inflation risks triggered by tariffs, despite historical evidence suggesting limited direct impact of tariffs on inflation [3] Group 2 - The bond market reflects complex sentiments regarding long-term economic prospects, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield adjusting by 0.2 basis points to 3.937%, the 10-year yield nearly unchanged at 4.416%, and the 30-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.929% [3] - The gold futures market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading around 771.80 yuan per gram, up by 0.98%, and reaching a high of 776.16 yuan per gram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to improved global market risk sentiment, driven by legal rulings on U.S. tariffs and easing geopolitical tensions, despite the long-term investment value of gold remaining significant [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that the Trump administration's tariff policies were illegal, which boosted market risk appetite and led to a sell-off in gold, causing spot gold prices to drop below $3,300 per ounce [2][3]. - Gold prices have shown increased volatility this year, initially rising to historical highs before entering a phase of adjustment, leading to investor uncertainty [3][4]. - Key factors contributing to the recent adjustment in gold prices include breakthroughs in global tariff negotiations, easing geopolitical conflicts, and profit-taking by investors who had previously accumulated significant gains [4][5]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price adjustments, gold is expected to maintain long-term support due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts are anticipated to benefit gold, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which could further enhance gold's appeal as an investment [7]. - Strong demand from central banks and global investors is likely to drive gold prices higher, with predictions suggesting that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2030, reflecting a bullish long-term outlook [8].

Group 1 - The confidence index for business and professional services in the UK dropped from -28 in February to -43 in May, marking the lowest level since November 2022 [1] - Consumer-facing service companies also experienced a decline in confidence, with price increase expectations rising at the fastest rate in two years for business and professional services [1] - Concerns were raised regarding the increase in employer social security contributions by £25 billion (approximately $33.78 billion) and a nearly 7% rise in the minimum wage, both effective from April [1] Group 2 - The profit expectations index for business and professional services fell to -47, the lowest level since February 2020, and lower than the previous quarter's -36 [2] - Investment intentions, business volume, and hiring conditions all showed a decline [2] - The UK services sector's PMI for May recorded an initial value of 50.2, indicating a slow return to growth, despite low confidence in future prospects [2]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 不过，仅过了2天，特朗普又改变了主意。当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判 期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 近日，黄金波动幅度加大。4月22日，现货黄金价格一度突破3500美元/盎司，随后，现货黄金便在3100 —3500美元/盎司区间大幅波动，5月1日，现货黄金最低跌至3201美元/盎司，5月7日，现货黄金又涨至 最高3438美元/盎司，5月15日，现货黄金经过多日调整后，一度跌至3120美元/盎司，此后又在上周五 （5月23日）回到3350美元/盎司上方。 对于黄金后市，多家机构认为将保持震荡走势。 申银万国期货研究所贵金属分析师林新杰认为，影响黄金价格走势的主要有两条主线，一条是有关穆迪 下调美国评级和特朗普推出的减税法案继续在市场中发酵，长端美债利率继续攀升，30年期美债利率也 金价后市如何走？ 5月27日，黄金期货、现货盘中大幅走低，现货黄金盘中一度逼近3300美元/盎司，跌幅超过1%。 截至发稿，伦敦金现跌1.04%，报3307.48美元/盎司。 C ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 4月至今，特朗普的关税政策经历了一系列"戏剧性"变化， 对华"对等关税"从4月2日宣布加征的34%，逐步加码至"非理性"的125%，再降至中美会谈后甚 至比预期更低的10%（《 中美关税"降级"的资产含义 》）。市场也是如此，从关税宣布后的大跌到目前已经完全修复失地，就好像关税带来的影响"从没 发生过一样"。 图表：美国对中国本轮关税由145%降至30%，另外24%暂缓90天执行 资料来源：PIIE，中金公司研究部 关税政策如同"儿戏"般的变化，固然有特朗普自身执政风格的鲜明烙印，但也有不得不向现实低头的约束，因为如此高的关税对中美而言都是无法长期承 受的。 因此，关税从一个几乎等于"贸易禁运"的非理性水平降至一个"可贸易可谈判"的水平，虽然在时点和幅度上是无法预知的偶然，但几乎也是现实 的必然， 否则美国通胀、经济和金融市场都会面临很大压力，4月中下旬"股债汇三杀"就是市场的预演（《 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ 》）。 图表："对等关税"以来，美国4月中下旬出现股债汇"三杀" 资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 往前看，关税政策进展大概率依然存在很大变数，不排除还会反复 ...