【要闻汇总】 摘要周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年 期美债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但 在美盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货 白银反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但在美 盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货白银 反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周四表示，"我们正在马不停蹄地努力与美国达成初步协议，以尽可 能降低关税并提供企业所需的稳定性。 美联储 6 月 17 日至 18 日的政策会议纪要显示，大多数政策制定者仍然担心特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

Group 1 - The oil market is facing concerns over a potential oversupply of crude oil, which may lead to a decline in oil prices, while simultaneously, a diesel shortage is anticipated, potentially increasing transportation and heating costs in winter 2024 [1] - Low refining profit margins in Q4 2024 are forcing refineries to reduce operating rates, resulting in low diesel inventories by early 2025, despite current refinery operations being near full capacity [1] - Diesel is a critical fuel for freight, agricultural machinery, and industrial activities, accounting for approximately 4% of residential heating energy in the US and 10% in Europe [1] Group 2 - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that distillate oil inventories were 23% lower than the five-year average as of the week of July 4, with global inventories also at seasonal lows [1] - Sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production cuts have significantly reduced the supply of heavy crude oil, which is a key raw material for diesel, particularly impacting the European market where the US accounts for about one-third of diesel imports [1] - The recent increase in US crude oil inventories by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels, alongside a 6% rise in gasoline demand to 9.2 million barrels per day, reflects ongoing market dynamics [2]

黄金周三（7月9日）早盘小幅上涨3308附近承压下跌，欧盘维持在3296-3282区间震荡，美盘向上破位走高，尾盘最高上涨至3317附近，日线收出一根带有 下影线的阳线。 一、基本面 1、欧美贸易谈判 欧盟的紧迫议程：欧盟正在加速与美国达成贸易协议，以避免特朗普政府设定的8月1日关税上调期限进一步冲击其经济。双方已就汽车关税税率和配额问题 展开深入讨论。 谈判进展与潜在影响：消息人士透露，未来几天内有望达成初步协议。然而，特朗普政府对配额制持保留态度，这为谈判增添了不确定性。 2、美联储政策与通胀压力 美联储的谨慎立场：尽管特朗普多次呼吁立即大幅降息，但美联储6月会议记录显示，仅有少数决策者支持7月降息，大多数人更担心贸易关税可能推高的通 胀压力。 降息预期与市场反应：投资者普遍预期美联储将在9月首次降息，并在年底前累计降息50个基点。然而，强于预期的就业数据以及关税政策的不确定性，使 得美联储在货币政策调整上保持高度谨慎。 3、今日关注 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周二经历大跌后，周三呈现下探回升态势并收阳，今日早盘小幅上涨。从日线级别来看，短期先关注3321-3325附近阻力，该区域汇聚 了5日均线、 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative of the current foreign exchange market has shifted from trade war concerns to fundamental macroeconomic drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center [1] - Market participants are closely examining the upcoming June FOMC meeting minutes to gauge the internal consensus on dovishness within the Federal Reserve [1][2] - If the minutes confirm a deeper dovish inclination, it would strengthen expectations for rate cuts in the summer, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [2] Group 2 - The influence of tariff discussions from the Trump administration appears to be diminishing in the current foreign exchange market, with market participants interpreting these threats as negotiation tactics rather than a significant policy shift [2] - Tariffs may create asymmetric impacts in specific regions or asset classes, as seen with the recent surge in copper prices attributed to tariff expectations [2] - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a state of stagnation around 1.17, influenced by residual interest rate premiums and ongoing tariff uncertainties in the Eurozone [3] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market is characterized by a search for clarity, which is expected to come from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and upcoming CPI data [3] - The Japanese yen is perceived as vulnerable due to geopolitical and targeted tariff risks, while the Mexican peso may benefit indirectly from capital reallocation or safe-haven flows [4]

这反过来又将基准 10 年期美国政府债券和美元的收益率推高至两周高点，使无收益的金价吸引力降 低。然而，美元多头似乎不愿意，并选择等待有关美联储降息路径的更多线索，然后再进行新的押注。 与此同时，投资者仍在定价美联储从今年年底（从 10 月开始）降息 50 个基点的可能性。因此，上次 FOMC 会议纪要和本周几位美联储官员的讲话将被寻找对央行政策前景的更多见解。 周三（7月9日）欧市早盘，贵金属走势分化，现货黄金震荡上行，暂企3284.79美元关口上方，现货白 银小幅上涨，银价盘中升至36.74美元，本周多位美联储官员将发表讲话，同时市场还将迎来FOMC会 议纪要的公布。投资者期待从中获取更多关于美联储政策路径的线索，尤其是对通胀前景与全球风险的 评估，这将成为金价走势的潜在转折点。 【要闻速递】 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本周早些时候宣布从 8 月 1 日起对一系列主要经济体征收更高的关税，这让投 资者感到不安。此外，特朗普周二誓言要进一步升级他的贸易战，威胁美国对外国药品征收高达 200% 的关税，对铜征收高达 50% 的关税。 投资者现在似乎相信，美国的关税最终会传导到更高的价格，并允许美联储坚持其观望态度 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]

【要闻速递】 花旗分析师指出，相较于鲍威尔在6月议息会议后的新闻发布会，美联储6月会议纪要的措辞可能更显鸽 派倾向。当时，鲍威尔极力保持中立语调，并着重强调了美联储的双重职责。然而，会议纪要往往能揭 示更多鲍威尔未直接言明的信息，尤其是降息条件正逐渐放宽这一趋势。 近期公布的点阵图揭示了美联储内部的显著分歧：一方预计年内将降息两次，而另一方则坚持认为无需 降息。摩根士丹利分析师表示，他们将仔细研究会议纪要，以探寻这一分歧背后的具体原因。较为鹰派 的委员可能会透露，他们正密切关注失业率的上升，或需要更多时间来评估关税及其他财政政策对通胀 的潜在影响。值得注意的是，鲍威尔曾提及，他预计关税对通胀的影响将在今夏显现，并暗示当前阻碍 美联储采取宽松政策的唯一因素是通胀压力的不确定性。若会议纪要中体现出对这一观点的部分认同， 则可能预示着美联储正朝着更加主动和积极的立场转变。 今日周三（7月9日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于765.42元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报767.00元/ 克，下跌0.97%，最高触及775.30元/克，最低下探765.42元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高 ...

智通财经7月9日电，新西兰央行称，如果通胀压力缓解，预计将进一步降息。 ...

新西兰联储：全球政策不确定性加剧，关税预计将降低全球经济增长。这可能会减缓新西兰经济复苏的 步伐，减轻通胀压力。 ...

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, indicating a cyclical rather than a structural trend [2][4][12] - As of July 4, the US dollar index fell below 97, marking a 4.7% decline from its peak on May 12, with significant depreciation against major currencies [6][82] - The decline in the dollar is also linked to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which has reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar [4][24][86] Group 2 - The narrative of "de-dollarization" has not accelerated in recent years, with the dollar's share of global reserves only decreasing from 55% in 2016 to 52% in 2024 when excluding China [3][42][44] - The correlation between the US GDP share and the dollar index is weak when excluding valuation effects, suggesting that fundamental trends may have limited impact on the dollar's value [3][30][36] - Recent capital flows indicate a temporary flight from US assets, but foreign investment in US Treasuries has stabilized since mid-May, questioning the sustainability of this trend [3][54][55] Group 3 - Potential scenarios for a strengthening dollar include rising inflation pressures leading to delayed interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in the dollar index [5][65][88] - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" may boost US economic growth, potentially leading to a stronger dollar as financial conditions ease [5][78][88] - High levels of short positions against the dollar may create conditions for a short-term rebound, as seen in historical patterns when similar positions were reached [5][72][88]