证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 全天候四月收涨+5.56%， 推荐关注半导体ETF ——指数基金投资+ 2025年5月5日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】上周市场日均成交1.1万亿，小盘、科技占优，银行股一季报数据不佳，4月30日银行板 块大跌-2%，红利周内跌幅靠前。港股市场优于A股，恒生科技收涨+5.24%领涨亚太市场，港股通高股息 率+1.12%。4月政治局会议未给出新一轮的增量刺激政策，地产刺激落空，市场普遍担忧关税对经济增速 压力。4月30日，国家统计局公布4月官方PMI数据：4月制造业PMI为49.0%，前值50.5%；非制造业PMI 为50.4%，前值50.8%，高股息再度成为资金防守方向，5月风格轮动模型信号切向红利。 p 【港股市场周观点】港股择时模型维持半仓，逢低配置创新药、汽车、AI互联网、低位消费，以及红利低 波的电力燃气、银行 ü 【情绪面】港股本周市场情绪延续看空， ...

每经记者 曾子建 每经编辑 肖芮冬 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 周涨幅 (%) | 月涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159834.OF | (金ETF | -0.903 | 6 | | 159812.OF | 黄金基金ETF | -0.799 | 6 | | 159830.OF | 上海金ETF | -0.753 | 6 | | 159831.OF | 上海金ETF基金 | -0.763 | 6 | | 518860.OF | 黄金ETFAU | -0.861 | 6 | | 518680.OF | 我FI | -0.879 | 6 | | 518850.OF | 黄金ETF华夏 | -0.819 | 6 | | 159934.OF | 黄金ETF | -0.778 | 6 | | 518890.OF | 中银上海金ETF | -1.018 | G | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159937.OF | 黄金ETF基金 | -0.825 | 6 | | 518660.OF | 黄金ETF基金 | -0.864 | 6 | | 518880.OF ...

Core Insights - The A-share ETF market has seen significant growth, with the total market size increasing from 3 trillion to 4 trillion yuan in just six months, indicating a strong interest from retail investors [1] Group 1: Fund Flows and Performance - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (510300) has a large scale of 375.7 billion yuan but only attracted 17.1 billion yuan in net inflows over the past six months, while the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (510330) led with 35.3 billion yuan in inflows [2][3] - The top five ETFs by net inflow include Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (35.3 billion yuan), Huaan Gold ETF (24.9 billion yuan), Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (24.7 billion yuan), Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (17.1 billion yuan), and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (15.8 billion yuan) [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and Technology 30 ETF have outperformed the Hang Seng Technology ETF by over 10%, indicating a shift in investor preference towards smaller, high-concentration ETFs [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to follow institutional money by investing in broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300, which are perceived as undervalued core assets [5] - A diversified approach that includes both Hong Kong ETFs and gold ETFs can yield better returns, with the analogy of balancing high-risk and low-risk investments [5] - The current market environment suggests that investors can adopt a more passive investment strategy, such as regular contributions to selected ETFs, which can lead to substantial returns over time [5]

据国是直通车，中国黄金协会28日发布的数据显示，2025年1季度，中国国内黄金ETF持仓增长23.47 吨，较2024年1季度增仓5.49吨同比增长327.73%。至3月底，国内黄金ETF持有量为138.21吨。 银河证券基金研究中心统计，股票ETF（含跨境ETF）过去一周资金净流出接近100亿元。在各大类ETF 中，黄金ETF继续成为最"吸金"的品种，过去一周资金净流入前四的ETF被黄金ETF包揽，全市场黄金 ETF过去一周资金净流入超180亿元。 3.公募基金年内分红超800亿元，ETF分红猛增182% 一、ETF行业快讯1.三大指数震荡下挫，公用事业板块ETF逆市上涨 今日，三大指数震荡下挫，上证综指下跌0.2%，深证成指下跌0.62%，创业板指下跌0.65%。多只公用 事业板块ETF上涨，其中，公用事业ETF（560190.SH）上涨1.23%，绿电ETF（562550.SH）上涨 0.94%，公用事业ETF基金（560620.SH）上涨0.88%。机械设备板块多只ETF下跌，机器人ETF （159770.SZ）下跌1.62%，机器人ETF基金（562360.SH）下跌1.55%，工业母机ETF（15 ...

【导读】彻底爆了！黄金ETF过去一周资金净流入超180亿元 中国基金报记者 若晖 过去一周，上证指数在3200点附近窄幅波动。由于接近五一假期，部分考虑持币过节的资金开始暂时撤离股票ETF。据银河证券基金研究中心统计，股票 ETF（含跨境ETF）过去一周资金净流出接近100亿元。 在各大类ETF中，黄金ETF继续成为最"吸金"的品种，过去一周资金净流入前四的ETF被黄金ETF包揽，全市场黄金ETF过去一周资金净流入超180亿元。 上周，上证指数围绕3200点窄幅震荡。从市场风格上看，小盘风格相对占优，中证1000指数上涨1.85%，跑赢沪深300指数1.47个百分点。 股票ETF过去一周 资金净流出接近100亿元 从行业表现看，申万一级行业指数涨多跌少，行情轮动较快。涨幅排名前三的行业依次为汽车、美容护理和基础化工，周涨幅分别为4.87%、3.80%和 2.71%；下跌最多的三个行业指数为食品饮料、房地产和煤炭，周跌幅分别为1.36%、1.31%、0.63%。 Wind数据显示，截至4月25日，全市场1064只股票ETF（含跨境ETF）总规模达3.3万亿元。按照成交均价计算，4月25日资金净流出20.33亿元 ...

豆瓣小组 [ 丧心病狂攒钱搭子 ] ｜广告｜ 没错！这届年轻人连理财都卷出了新姿势 ] #理财搭子#话题在小红书狂卷上万篇笔记 有人靠搭子一年攒下5位数 有人靠队友躲过市场过山车 那么，这届年轻人找理财搭子,到底在(拼什么?) 拼）「反人性监督」 "说好每月存3000，谁没完成谁发红包！" 组员＠小北 靠搭子群打卡，硬生生把购物 频率从每周3次降到每月1次 IMMFI. ART 02 小红书的理财脑暴团 刷到一篇《 用ETF攒出第一桶金 》的笔记，评论 区瞬间炸出300+条求搭子 10个陌生人拉了个群，分工比上班还认真： A 扒遍研报整理「 行业数据对比表 」 B 每周更新市场动态新闻和分析报告 C 专门盯美联储动态，半夜发群预警 评论有礼，说说 以前一个人看数据头秃,现在群里人均八倍镜! -@MOMO（努力攒钱版） (#)[ 情绪稳定值 ] PART 03 理财搭子 的分析更说 市场波动频繁，理性决策才是投资的长久之道 真正的理财搭子如同一面镜子 帮助你在情绪起伏时看清本质 @养基专业户 #你的理财搭子# 小招将会随机 抽取 2 名小可爱 各送出【小招喵帆布袋】 1 个 *活动截止时间* 2025年5月8日 ...

打包市场龙头，抢反弹就买指数ETF>> 截至目前，ETF两市成交额超2000亿，报2000.82亿元，分类型来看，股票型ETF成交额685.46亿，债券 型ETF成交额561.14亿，货币型ETF成交额125.88亿，商品型ETF成交额202.40亿，QDII型ETF成交额 425.95亿。其中，成交额最高的非货币型ETF分别是华夏恒生科技etf(qdii)(513180.SH)、恒生科技 (513130.SH)、广发中证香港创新药(qdii-etf)(513120.SH)，成交额分别为56.30亿元、55.74亿元、36.06亿 元。 ...

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported disappointing first-quarter 2025 results, missing both earnings and revenue estimates, and lowered its full-year guidance due to rising medical costs, leading to a significant decline in its stock price [1][2] - The company's shares fell 22.4% following the results, marking the worst daily decline since 1998 and erasing approximately $120 billion from its market capitalization, although this decline may present a long-term buying opportunity [2] Earnings Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $7.20, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.27 but showing a 4.2% increase from the previous year's EPS of $6.16 [4] - Revenues grew by 9.8% year-over-year to $109.6 billion, falling short of the estimated $111.1 billion [4] - Optum revenues increased by 4.6% to $63.9 billion, while the medical ratio rose by 0.5 percentage points year-over-year to 84.8%, with management forecasting a ratio of 87%-88% for 2025 [4][6] Consumer Growth - The number of consumers served with self-funded commercial benefits increased by approximately 700,000 in the first quarter, and the number of seniors and complex needs patients served grew by 545,000, expected to reach 800,000 in 2025 [5] - The company's state-based community plans now serve 7.6 million members, and Optum Health anticipates serving 650,000 new value-based care patients in 2025 [5] Guidance Adjustments - UnitedHealth reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2025 at $450-$455 billion but reduced its EPS guidance to $26.00-$26.50 from a previous range of $29.50-$30.00, citing increased care activity in Medicare Advantage and impacts from Medicare funding reductions [6] ETF Opportunities - Investors may consider ETFs with significant allocations to UnitedHealth, including iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF), Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), JPMorgan Healthcare Leaders ETF (JDOC), Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF (FHLC), and iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels to guide investment focus[4] **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates crowding levels for each industry index based on specific metrics (not detailed in the report). It then ranks industries by their crowding levels and highlights those with significant changes in crowding levels or notable fund inflows/outflows[4] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a useful tool for identifying industry trends and potential investment opportunities based on crowding dynamics[4] - **Model Name**: Premium Rate Z-Score Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of their premium rates over a rolling window[5] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the premium rate of an ETF as the difference between its market price and its net asset value (NAV), divided by the NAV 2. Compute the Z-score of the premium rate over a rolling window to standardize the deviation from the mean 3. Use the Z-score to signal potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[5] **Model Evaluation**: Effective for short-term trading strategies and arbitrage identification in ETF markets[5] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided in the report[4] - **Premium Rate Z-Score Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided in the report[5] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned or constructed in the report Factor Backtesting Results - No specific factor backtesting results were provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On April 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45% to 3291.43, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.27% to 9905.53, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.59% to 1944.32. The total trading volume of A-shares in the two markets was 1.0738 trillion yuan. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (3.79%), computer (2.72%), and beauty care (2.11%), while the worst-performing sectors were banking (-1.23%), food and beverage (-0.59%), and real estate (-0.46%) [2][6]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45% to 3291.43, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.27% to 9905.53, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.59% to 1944.32 [2][6]. - The total trading volume of A-shares in the two markets was 1.0738 trillion yuan [2][6]. - The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (3.79%), computer (2.72%), and beauty care (2.11%), while the worst-performing sectors were banking (-1.23%), food and beverage (-0.59%), and real estate (-0.46%) [2][6]. Stock ETF - The top three stock ETFs by trading volume were Southern CSI A500 ETF (up 0.42%, discount rate 0.55%), Huaxia CSI A500 ETF (up 0.44%, discount rate 0.52%), and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (up 0.05%, discount rate 0.24%) [3][7]. Bond ETF - The top three bond ETFs by trading volume were Penghyang ChinaBond 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF (down 0.35%, discount rate -1.43%), Fuguo ChinaBond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF (down 0.06%, discount rate -0.11%), and Haifutong CSI Short-Term Financing Bond ETF (up 0.01%, discount rate 0.01%) [4][9]. Gold ETF - Gold AU9999 rose 1.96% and Shanghai Gold rose 1.69%. The top three gold ETFs by trading volume were Huaan Gold ETF (up 1.86%, discount rate 2.05%), E Fund Gold ETF (up 1.86%, discount rate 2.04%), and Bosera Gold ETF (up 1.88%, discount rate 2.09%) [12]. Commodity Futures ETF - The top three commodity futures ETFs by trading volume were Huaxia Feed Meal Futures ETF (up 0.87%, discount rate 0.86%), Dacheng Non-Ferrous Metals Futures ETF (up 1.46%, discount rate 1.39%), and Jianxin Yisheng Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF (up 0.48%, discount rate 0.64%) [13]. Cross-Border ETF - The US and German stock markets were closed the previous trading day, and the Hong Kong stock market was closed today. The top three cross-border ETFs by trading volume were Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF (up 1.05%, discount rate 0.78%), Huatai-PineBridge Southern Dongying Hang Seng Tech ETF (up 1.06%, discount rate 1.43%), and Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF (up 0.89%, discount rate 0.62%) [15]. Money ETF - The top three money ETFs by trading volume were Yin Hua Day Profit ETF, Hua Bao Add Benefit ETF, and Money ETF [17].