央视网消息：国务院新闻办公室1月15日举行新闻发布会，国家外汇局有关负责人介绍，2025年，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平 稳，保持较强韧性和活力。 与此同时，2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金由年初的净流出转为净流入，全年净 流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。 李斌表示，2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。2025年9月末，我国对外资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万 亿美元，均为历史新高。外汇储备保持稳定，年末余额为33579亿美元。人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 数据显示，2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%，均为历史新高。 国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长 李斌：全年查处地下钱庄、通过虚假交易非法跨境转移资金等外汇违法违规案件1100多起，有效维护了 外汇交易秩序。 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China reached a record trading volume of 42.6 trillion USD in 2025, up from 34.5 trillion USD in 2022, indicating strong resilience and vitality in the market [1][1][1] - The corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio increased to 30%, marking a historical high, which reflects improved risk management among enterprises [1][1][1] - By the end of September 2025, China's external assets and liabilities reached 11.5 trillion USD and 7.5 trillion USD respectively, with net external assets surpassing 4 trillion USD for the first time [1][1][1] Market Dynamics - The balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market has remained stable over the past year, contributing to overall market stability and resilience [1][1][1] - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange transactions rose to 8.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2022, making it the fastest-growing currency in terms of global trading share [1][1][1] Regulatory Outlook - The authorities plan to enhance monitoring of cross-border capital flows, improve macro-prudential management, and maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market, ensuring that the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1][1][1]

1月15日，国务院新闻办公室在北京举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜，国家外 汇局新闻发言人、副局长李斌，中国人民银行货币政策司司长谢光启，中国人民银行新闻发言人、调查 统计司司长闫先东，国家外汇局资本项目管理司司长肖胜介绍货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成 效，并答记者问。 中新社记者 杨可佳/摄 证券时报记者 孙璐璐 贺觉渊 为继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，中国人民银行在2026年开年便先行打出结构性货币政策工具的"组合 拳"。1月15日，央行在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，自1月19日起，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25个百分点，完善结构性工具并加大支持力度。 除聚焦一系列结构性工具外，央行对降准降息等总量工具的进一步宽松同样释放积极信号。央行新闻发 言人、副行长邹澜在会上表示，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。下一步，央行将综合考虑基础货币投放 需要、债券市场供求情况、收益率曲线形态变化等因素，灵活开展国债买卖操作，与其他流动性工具一 起，保持流动性充裕，为政府债顺利发行创造适宜的货币金融环境。引导隔夜利率在政策利率水平附近 运行。 发布会上，央行、国家外汇局有关负责人还就财政货币政策加强 ...

1月15日下午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜介绍了货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成效，并发布了一 批年初先行出台的政策措施。邹澜表示，从今年看，降准降息还有一定空间。 邹澜在发布会上指出，目前金融机构的平均法定存款准备金率为6.3%，降准仍然有空间。在政策利率方面，外部约束方面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美 元处于降息通道，汇率不构成很强的约束；内部约束方面，2025年以来银行净息差已经出现企稳迹象，2026年还有规模较大的长期存款到期，此次下调各项 结构性货币政策工具利率有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。 同日，中国人民银行发布公告，决定自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。下调后，3个月、6个月和1年期支农支小再贷款利率分别 为0.95%、1.15%和1.25%，再贴现利率为1.5%，抵押补充贷款利率为1.75%，专项结构性货币政策工具利率为1.25%。邹澜在发布会上确认，此举旨在下调各 类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，引导金融机构加大对重点领域的支持力度。 此外，邹澜还宣布了一系列完善结构性工具并加大支持 ...

八项具体举措 支持实体经济 □ 下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点 □ 增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，单设民营企业再贷款 □ 将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿元增至1.2万亿元 □ 合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具 □ 拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域 下调结构性货币政策工具利率 □ 拓展服务消费与养老再贷款的支持领域 □ 将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30% □ 鼓励金融机构提升汇率避险服务水平 ◎记者 范子萌 张琼斯 在国新办1月15日举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行、国家外汇局有关负责人介绍货币金融政策支持 实体经济高质量发展成效。会上宣布了年初先行出台的一批货币金融政策，包括下调结构性货币政策工 具利率、下调商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例等8项具体举措。 针对备受关注的降准降息，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在发布会上表示，降准降息从今年看 还有一定空间。 多项政策快速落地。昨日晚间，中国人民银行宣布实施4项具体政策举措，包括：下调再贷款、再贴现 利率；增加支农支小再贷款额度、设立民营企业再贷款；增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度；拓展碳 减排支持工具支持领域。 ...

1月15日，国家外汇管理局（以下简称"国家外汇局"）公布2025年12月份银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收 付款数据。数据显示，按美元计值，2025年12月份，银行结汇3180亿美元，售汇2179亿美元。2025年1 月份至12月份，银行累计结汇25949亿美元，累计售汇23983亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年12月份，银行代客涉外收入8244亿美元，对外付款7109亿美元。2025年1月份至12 月份，银行代客累计涉外收入79725亿美元，累计对外付款76704亿美元。 对于2025年我国外汇市场运行情况，国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长李斌在1月15日国新办举行的新闻 发布会上表示，过去一年里，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平稳，保持较强韧性和活力。 据李斌介绍，2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金 由年初的净流出转为净流入，全年净流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。2025年12月份当月 跨境资金净流入和银行结售汇顺差扩大，与季节性等因素有关，从今年1月份以来的情况看，已有所收 敛。2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate amidst increasing global financial market volatility in 2025, driven by factors such as monetary policy adjustments in developed economies and geopolitical disturbances [3]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate faced depreciation pressure early in 2025 due to rising global tariff policy risks and the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S., with the offshore RMB rate dropping below 7.40 [5]. - Following improvements in both internal and external environments, the RMB began a gradual appreciation, with both onshore and offshore RMB rates breaking the 7 mark against the USD by year-end, reaching new highs since May 2023 [6]. Influencing Factors - Various factors influence the exchange rate, including economic growth, monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitical events, and unexpected risks. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized the importance of managing expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [7]. - The RMB has shown resilience, with the CFETS RMB Index rising by 7.2% since 2020, despite a 1.9% increase in the USD index during the same period [7]. Future Outlook - The PBOC anticipates continued two-way fluctuations and elasticity in the RMB exchange rate, supported by China's large market size, complete industrial chain, and ongoing domestic demand potential [7]. - External uncertainties remain, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments in major economies and ongoing geopolitical shocks, which may impact exchange rate trends [7]. Cross-Border Capital Management - As international financial market volatility increases, there is a rising demand for enterprises to actively identify and manage exchange rate risks. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is enhancing services for enterprises in this regard [9]. - In 2025, the scale of enterprises using foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks exceeded $1.9 trillion, nearly doubling since 2020, with a hedging ratio of 30%, up 8 percentage points from 2020 [9]. Financial Market Opening - SAFE is set to introduce policies to better support enterprises in their international operations and foreign trade development, including improvements in cross-border capital management for multinational companies [10]. - The next steps include optimizing Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) cross-border capital policies and continuing to issue Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) investment quotas to enhance the level of financial market openness [10].

Financial Data Insights - In December 2025, M1 growth rate was 3.8%, while M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%[2] - The significant rise in M2 was primarily driven by a substantial reduction in non-bank deposits[11] - The overall social financing growth rate declined, mainly due to government bond financing[13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank introduced eight monetary policy measures focusing on structural tools to support domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and micro enterprises[33] - A 50 basis point (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut is expected in the first quarter of 2026, while comprehensive interest rate cuts will require further observation[35] - The central bank emphasized that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit "two-way fluctuations and maintain flexibility" with expectations of a gradual appreciation towards 6.9 by the end of 2026[34] Investment Implications - Investment in the Chinese stock market is anticipated to yield excess returns, particularly during the "spring rally" investment opportunity[36] - Bond market dynamics are expected to oscillate between upward and downward pressures, with yields projected between 1.6% and 1.9%[36] - Structural opportunities in commodities are identified as certain, indicating potential for investment[36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's direct investment has shown a net inflow since 2025, with significant growth in outbound investments by domestic entities [1][2] - In 2025, total cross-border income and expenditure reached $15.6 trillion, marking a nearly 10% increase compared to 2024 [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds for the year was $302.1 billion, with a bank settlement surplus of $196.6 billion [1] Group 2 - By the end of September 2025, China's foreign assets and liabilities reached historical highs of $11.5 trillion and $7.5 trillion, respectively [1] - The foreign exchange reserves remained stable, with a year-end balance of $3357.9 billion [1] - The Chinese yuan exchange rate maintained basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [1] Group 3 - The government plans to introduce policies for overseas lending and domestic foreign exchange loan management to better support Chinese enterprises in international expansion and foreign trade development [2] - There will be a nationwide implementation of cross-border fund management policies for multinational companies to enhance fund turnover efficiency and reduce financial costs for enterprises [2] - Support will be provided for the construction of international financial centers in Shanghai and Hong Kong, along with the optimization of foreign exchange management policies in high-level open platforms such as free trade zones and Hainan Free Trade Port [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market is expected to maintain resilience and vitality in 2025, with stable operations anticipated in 2026, supported by both internal and external factors [2][3]. External Environment - Global economic growth is projected to be moderate, with major developed economies likely to continue interest rate cuts, which will benefit the stability of China's foreign exchange market [3]. - There are uncertainties in international financial markets and geopolitical areas that could impact the foreign exchange market [3]. Internal Environment - China's economic development quality and efficiency are improving, with the economy reaching new milestones in total output [3]. - The added value of high-tech industries above designated size grew by 9.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, becoming a significant new driving force for economic growth [3]. Trade and Investment - China's total goods trade import and export volume exceeded $6.3 trillion in 2025, with the country being a major trading partner for over 150 nations and regions [4]. - By the end of September 2025, China's foreign direct investment and foreign investment in China reached $3.4 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively, ranking among the top globally [4]. Foreign Exchange Market Development - The foreign exchange market in China is deepening, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a diverse range of market participants, including domestic financial institutions and foreign entities [4]. - The foreign exchange risk exposure of domestic entities is decreasing, with the hedging ratio for enterprises increasing by 3 percentage points in 2025 [5]. - The proportion of trade settled in RMB has risen to nearly 30%, enhancing the ability of enterprises and banks to respond to market changes [5]. Currency Mechanism - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is continuously improving, effectively stabilizing supply and demand [5]. - There is a sufficient toolbox for macro-prudential regulation of cross-border capital flows, with accumulated experience in responding to external shocks [5].