今日午间收盘，A股市场呈现出典型的"沪强深弱"分化格局。截至午盘，上证指数低开高走，逆势上涨 0.16%，报收于3876.4点；而深市则表现疲软，深证成指下跌0.85%，创业板指跌幅更是达到1.81%。 从成交来看，两市半日合计成交额超过1.04万亿元，环比小幅放量。这种指数分化与成交活跃并存的局 面，清晰地表明当前市场正处在激烈的结构性调整之中。 板块方面，今天的涨跌脉络可谓泾渭分明。国防军工板块以1.69%的涨幅领跑，轻工制造、纺织服饰等 板块紧随其后。以石油石化、银行、有色金属为代表的周期与防御板块同步走强，共同构成了护盘的主 力军。 而另一边，以电力设备、通信、电子为代表的科技成长板块则普遍回调，成为拖累创业板指数的主要力 量。这种风格上的快速切换，反映出资金在年末阶段趋于谨慎，正在从高位成长股向相对低位的稳增长 和防御板块进行腾挪。 不过，今天市场最亮眼的主角并非这些传统板块，而是医疗商业概念的集体爆发。板块内龙头个股更是 出现了20%的涨停。这一异动的直接催化剂，来自一则科技与健康跨界融合的消息。 据悉，蚂蚁集团旗下的一款AI健康应用"蚂蚁阿福"下载量近期呈现爆发式增长，月活用户已突破1500万 ...

12月18日，A股三大股指早盘走势分化，沪指低开高走高位震荡，深成指及创业板指低开回升后再度震 荡下挫，截止午盘，沪指涨0.16%报3876.4点，深成指跌0.85%报13111.78点，创业板指跌1.81%报3118.3 点，科创50指数跌0.92%报1313.11点；沪深两市半日成交额1.05万亿，全市场超3600只个股上涨。 盘面热点快速轮动，商业航天概念再度爆发，盛洋科技2连板，顺灏股份、天银机电、中国卫星等多股 涨停。大消费板块走强，零售方向领涨，中央商场、上海九百涨停。IP经济概念表现活跃，广博股份、 三湘印象涨停；券商板块走势分化，东兴证券涨停，中金涨超5%，信达证券涨4.55%；锂电池板块回 落，海科新源、宁德时代下挫。 热门板块 光刻机概念异动拉升 光大证券认为，新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期：一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力， 经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有望 提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入；此外，历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五"开局之年A股市 场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年的积极表现有望在2026年得到延续。 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The economic indicators continue to show weakness, with consumption and investment under significant pressure, leading to a potential slowdown in GDP growth in Q4 compared to Q3 [2][7] - The core contradiction in the current economic operation is the coexistence of "old momentum adjustment drag and new momentum growth," with real estate sluggishness and cautious consumer spending posing short-term constraints [2][7] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the role of domestic demand and the importance of enterprise innovation, with new macro policies focusing on increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts [2][7] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials Sector - The construction sector is expected to experience a "spring rally" as the 14th Five-Year Plan concludes and the 15th Five-Year Plan begins, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery in Q1 2026 [16][17] - Historical data indicates a "front high, back stable" investment rhythm in five-year plans, suggesting that the upcoming period may see a concentration of project disclosures and investment signals [16][17] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to have elastic infrastructure investment growth due to low base effects from the previous year, with significant project announcements expected from various provinces [16][18][19] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - The company, Chuangyuan Xinke, plans to acquire 100% of Weiyu Tiandao for 886 million yuan, aiming to provide comprehensive testing solutions across ground, low-altitude, and satellite domains [3][24] - The strategic partnership with the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology focuses on advancing "6G+AI" and "6G+Satellite" technologies, enhancing the company's competitive edge in high-end wireless communication testing [3][25] - The company reported revenues of 156 million yuan and a net profit of 4.01 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with future profit projections indicating growth [3][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in 2026, with the construction sector expected to experience a "spring rally." Overall infrastructure investment in 2025 remains weak, with growth rates at low levels. However, conditions for marginal improvement in investment rhythm may arise in the first quarter of 2026, catalyzing sentiment and orders for the sector [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Five-Year Plan Impact - The five-year plan significantly influences infrastructure investment rhythms, showing a clear "high at the front, stable at the back" pattern in recent cycles. Historically, infrastructure investment growth in China has exhibited stable phase characteristics, with the first half of the plan often seeing concentrated project launches and relatively high growth rates, while the latter half tends to stabilize [3][10]. 2. Investment Recovery Patterns - Historical data indicates a "low base - next year recovery" pattern for first-quarter infrastructure growth. For instance, in 2025, the broad infrastructure fixed asset investment growth rates for January-February and March are 9.95% and 12.59%, respectively. However, excluding the impact of power investment, the narrow infrastructure growth rates are only 5.60% and 5.94%, marking the lowest in five years. The expectation for 2026 is that the first quarter may naturally recover due to the low growth base in 2025 [4][12]. 3. Provincial Project Disclosures - In the first quarter of the "14th Five-Year Plan," multiple provinces are expected to disclose significant plans for communication, comprehensive transportation, water conservancy, and major infrastructure projects, which will significantly catalyze the infrastructure industry chain. For example, provinces like Sichuan and Chongqing have set ambitious investment targets for the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will lay the groundwork for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][10]. 4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%. The construction decoration index dropped by 1.59%, with sectors like landscaping engineering and municipal engineering showing positive growth [6][25]. 5. Company Announcements - Several companies in the construction sector have reported significant project wins, including major overseas contracts and domestic infrastructure projects, indicating a robust pipeline of work that supports future revenue growth [19][20].

Market Overview - A-shares have seen a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high of 4034 points in mid-November to near 3800 points [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.74%, while the Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.54% and 1.79%, respectively, marking recent lows [1] - Bitcoin has recently fallen below $86,000 for the first time in two weeks, and gold prices ended a five-day increase, with COMEX gold down by 0.61% [1] ETF Performance - Gold-themed ETFs have experienced notable declines, with the Yongying Gold Stock ETF dropping by 4.16%, leading the market [2] - Other ETFs in sectors such as semiconductor, new energy, photovoltaic, and artificial intelligence also saw declines exceeding 3% [1][2] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The recent downturn in A-shares is attributed to three main factors: a significant drop in the AI sector of the US stock market, a hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, and increased liquidity demands as the year-end approaches [4] - The AI sector's decline was highlighted by major US tech stocks losing substantial market value, impacting the A-share technology index [4] Future Market Outlook - Despite recent volatility, several brokerages suggest that the spring market rally may still be anticipated, supported by policy measures and liquidity improvements as year-end approaches [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the current market conditions may present opportunities for a "spring rally," particularly in sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing [7] 2026 Market Predictions - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are optimistic about the equity market, particularly in technology, which is expected to remain a key focus [9] - The return of foreign capital to the Chinese market is anticipated, with sectors such as high-end manufacturing and biotechnology expected to offer significant investment opportunities [10]

市场表现 今日市场呈现结构性分化。科网、半导体、医药及黄金等个股普遍走弱，而航空股表现坚挺，成为市场 少有的亮点。 有分析指出，临近年末市场观望情绪浓厚，南向资金以防守策略为主，多数机构投资者正等待明年一季 度政策"开门红"带来的布局机会。 不过部分机构仍对后市持乐观态度。广发证券最新研报指出，2025年春季躁动行情大概率不会缺席，主 要基于以下判断： 流动性环境改善：日本套息交易对市场冲击有限;港股解禁高峰期已然过去;美联储新任主席政策取向大 概率偏鸽派。 潜在上行催化剂：DeepSeek大模型技术进展有望提振市场情绪；国内互联网巨头C端应用创新可能推动 恒生科技指数基本面实质性改善。 需要特别指出的是，港股历史上的"春季躁动"行情通常发生于圣诞节前至春节前这一时段(约12月22日 至次年2月20日)，而非传统认知中的春节后至两会期间。 科技股承压 机构看好中长期价值 截至收盘，腾讯音乐-SW(01698.HK)跌3.44%、阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)跌2.96%、网易-S(09999.HK)跌 2.37%。 智通财经12月16日讯（编辑 胡家荣）今日港股三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，恒生指数跌1.54 ...

11月，A股市场新开投资者账户达238.14万户，环比增长3.1%，投资者入场步伐在10月短暂回落之后重 拾升势。然而，在这一轮投资者"跑步进场"的浪潮中，曾经人声鼎沸的证券营业部却显得格外安静—— 柜台前鲜有排队开户的客户，原来现在大家大多选择了线上开户。 近日，记者实地走访深圳多家券商营业部，发现昔日占据街边黄金位置的券商营业部正在从深圳街头悄 然消失。记者发现，许多营业部已从一楼搬到写字楼高层，悄然"上楼"。中国银河（601881）证券深圳 景田营业部位于写字楼四楼，营业部里已经没有了传统的交易大厅，取而代之的是简洁的咨询区和自助 服务区。 记者在自助机上看到，"热门业务"包括开通创业板权限、开通科创板权限、开通可转债权限等。营业部 工作人员表示："现在开户等绝大多数业务都能通过手机完成，来现场主要是为了使用自助机办理融资 融券等特定业务。" 记者走访发现，在福田CBD，设在一楼的券商营业部已经非常少，面积也大幅"瘦身"。国信证券金田路 证券营业部仍旧设在一楼，不过面积堪称"迷你型营业部"。记者看到这个一楼营业部面积约20平方米， 里面仅有一名工作人员和一台自助机。该营业部工作人员表示："现在都是手机在 ...

Market Overview - On December 15, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai 50 index losing and regaining the 3000-point mark, while the Sci-Tech 50 index fell over 2%. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and North 50 also dropped more than 1%. Market turnover decreased to 1.79 trillion yuan [1]. Index Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,112.09, down 1.10% - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,867.92, down 0.55% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,137.80, down 1.77% - The Sci-Tech 50 Index closed at 1,318.91, down 2.22% - The North 50 Index closed at 1,431.95, down 1.09% [2]. Sector Performance - The aerospace equipment, insurance, glass fiber, and consumer sectors showed the highest gains, while components, high-priced stocks, motor manufacturing, and communication equipment faced the largest declines [2]. Capital Flow - Defense and military industry saw a net inflow of over 6.1 billion yuan, while non-bank financials and basic chemicals each received over 4 billion yuan. Retail, non-ferrous metals, and other sectors also gained over 2 billion yuan. Conversely, the electronics sector experienced a net outflow of over 12.7 billion yuan, and the power equipment sector saw a net outflow of over 2.6 billion yuan [3]. Market Outlook - According to Zhonghang Securities, the "spring market" often extends beyond the Spring Festival, with a median duration of 35 trading days and a median return of 11% over the past decade. The pre-Spring Festival period typically sees a median return of 6.87%, while the post-Festival period averages a return of 7.10% [3]. - Haitong International believes that the overall space for future corrections is limited, suggesting that it remains a window for bargain hunting. Recent support for domestic consumption is expected to yield relative returns in a volatile environment. The brokerage sector, with low valuations, may provide market support [3]. Sector Highlights - The glass fiber sector saw significant activity, with stocks like Zhaosheng Technology hitting a new four-year high after a six-day consecutive rise. Other companies in the sector also experienced notable upward movements [4]. - Glass fiber is identified as a core reinforcement material for wind turbine blades, with demand projected to reach 800,000 tons in 2024 and 1.55 million tons by 2030 in the wind power sector [6]. - CITIC Securities anticipates continued growth in the glass fiber industry, particularly for high-end products, with leading companies expected to see profit increases due to favorable product structure and market positioning [6]. Consumer Sector Developments - Recent favorable policies in the consumer sector include a joint notification from several government departments aimed at boosting consumption through financial support and innovative consumption models [7]. - The notification encourages financial institutions to enhance services for various consumption sectors, including upgrading goods and expanding service consumption [7]. - Century Securities highlights the integration of AI technology in enhancing consumer experiences and suggests focusing on leading companies in the elderly products and consumer electronics sectors [7].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 15, with the Hang Seng Index at 25,739 points, down 237 points, a decline of 0.91% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 5,580 points, down 57 points, a decrease of 1.02% [4] Focus Company - Hang Seng Bank, with a market capitalization of nearly HKD 300 billion, announced that HSBC Holdings and HSBC Asia Pacific proposed a privatization offer at HKD 155 per share, which is the final price and will not be increased [6] - The court meeting and shareholder meeting for Hang Seng Bank are scheduled for January 8, 2026. If the proposal fails, HSBC Asia Pacific confirmed it has no intention to sell its approximately 63.43% stake in Hang Seng Bank [6] - As of the report, Hang Seng Bank's stock price was HKD 153.7, showing a slight increase of 0.46% [6] Stock Performance - On October 9, HSBC Holdings and Hang Seng Bank jointly announced that HSBC Asia Pacific requested the board to present a proposal for privatization under Section 673 of the Companies Ordinance [7] - Prior to the announcement, Hang Seng Bank's stock closed at HKD 117.7, and on the announcement day, it peaked at HKD 166.7, with a maximum intraday increase of 41%. Since October 9, the stock has maintained above HKD 150 [7] Market Sentiment and Outlook - Huatai Securities indicated that the current market downside is manageable, but the upside potential has not yet opened. The sentiment indicator for Hong Kong stocks remains in a pessimistic range, corresponding to a bottoming phase [9] - GF Securities expressed an optimistic view on the Hong Kong market, suggesting that the "spring rally" will not be absent, citing strong seasonal patterns for stock performance from Christmas to the pre-Spring Festival period [9]

从定量来看，"春季躁动"行情平均持续时间约44个交易日，期间上证指数与创业板指的平均涨幅分别可 达11.52%与14.92%（数据来源：西部证券研究中心）。 从定性来看，当企业盈利或宏观经济数据呈现向上趋势，且未受重大外部冲击时，"春季躁动"上演的概 率便显著提升；若此时再叠加宽松的流动性环境（如降准降息），则往往催生出更为强劲的上涨波段。 再将目光投向当前的2026年，我们正目睹一个有利于"春季躁动"滋生的组合条件逐渐成型：上市公司盈 利步入边际改善通道，内部政策与流动性环境友好，外部因素也呈现中性偏正面格局。 古人道："一年之计在于春"。 在由成交缩量、年末抱团、机构排名、美联储鹰鸽分歧、4000点天花板交错而成的冬季迷雾中，不少人 又想起了"春天"这一充满希望的季节。 关于"跨年行情"与"春季躁动"的讨论持续升温，这不仅是基于历史规律的期许，更是对当下积极信号汇 聚的理性回应。 所谓"春季躁动"，特指A股市场在年末至次年年初常常上演的阶段性上涨行情。它虽无精确的日历起 点，可能在上一年的12月、次年的1月或2月任何一个时间点悄然启动，但其历史身影却清晰可辨。 一个颇具启示的历史统计是，在出现"春季躁动" ...