发布日期: 2025-05-20 英欧碳市场计划连接,拍卖市场补跌 敢新 一级:拍卖价格69.44欧元/吨(-4.80%),投标覆盖比1.29; 1、 行情 二级:EUA期货结算价70.42欧元/吨(-0.80%),成交3.45万手(-0.24) 策略 短期偏空,中期震荡,下方支撑位€67 利多:暂无新增。 核心 利空:(1)英欧碳市场计划连接,由于UKA价格低于EUA,因此对欧盟碳价形成短期利 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第83期) 40 20 07-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 期货持仓量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 增减 2025-05-16 2025-05-19 增减 涨跌幅 70. 99 70. 42 -0. 24 -0. 80% 31. 77 3.45 0. 00 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 现货成交量(手) 集运碳成本(美元/TEU) 运费占比 即期成本 2025-05-16 | 2025-05-19 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the equity market has driven the EUA to stop falling and rebound, but it is overbought in the short - term and there is still a risk of decline in the medium - term, with an upper resistance level of €75 [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 70.11 euros/ton (-2.42%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.71 [3] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 73.41 euros/ton (1.49%), and the trading volume is 25,400 lots (0.41) [3] Strategies - Short - term overbought, medium - term decline risk remains, with an upper resistance level of €75 [3] Bullish Factors - German wind and photovoltaic power generation has decreased, and the remaining load has increased; the peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia has failed, and Putin was absent; the three major European stock indexes have risen across the board [3] Bearish Factors - The European Commission may propose to set up a new fund to support energy infrastructure, and the funding source may include EU ETS auction revenues; the economic growth rate of the eurozone in the first quarter was weaker than expected [5] Other Factors - Trump's visit to the Gulf focuses on major business agreements, which may affect market sentiment; the agenda of the UK - EU summit to be held in London on May 19 has been announced, and the connection of the UK - EU carbon market is listed as the second priority, second only to defense [5]

北京碳市场将石化、制造业、热力、交通运输等行业年能耗2000吨标煤以上的近1300家单位纳入管理， 其中对年碳排放量超过5000吨的900余家重点碳排放单位施行配额管理。配额线上成交价格稳步提升， 体现了"排碳有成本、降碳有收益"的市场原则，重点领域重点企业碳排放得到有效控制。据统计，纳入 北京市碳市场管理的重点碳排放单位2023年排放总量同比下降2%。其中燃煤应急发电、水泥、石化等 碳排放量较大的行业降碳效果显著，为有效控制全市碳排放总量做出了重要贡献。 目前，北京市本地碳市场的碳排放配额以免费发放为主，有偿发放为辅。"通过配额有偿发放能够促进 本地碳市场健康运行，同时也进一步释放了'排碳有成本'的信号。"北京市生态环境局应对气候变化处 李春梅表示，2025年北京市将继续完善本地碳市场建设，激励碳排放单位主动消纳更多绿电，尝试扩大 碳普惠应用场景，鼓励可再生能源开发利用，以及交通、建筑等领域的节能降碳行为，引导生产生活方 式低碳转型。 成交均价为7个地方碳市场中最高 中化新网讯 记者5月13日从北京市生态环境局了解到，北京市碳排放权交易市场（以下简称北京市碳市 场）2024年度工作圆满完成，全市850余家重 ...

欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第78期) | 发布日期:2025-05-13 | | | --- | --- | | 最新 | 市场风险偏好持续回暖，EUA大幅上涨 | | 、行桂 【、一级:拍卖价格71.01欧元/吨(1.15%),技标覆盖比1.56 | | | S 2、二级：EUA期货结算价73.41欧元/吨(4.29%)，成交3.39万手(1.37) | | | 策略 短期震荡偏强,上方压力位€75;中期下跌风险仍存 | | | 利多：①中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，自5月14日起，美国对中国的新增关税降 | | | 至30%，中国对美国新增关税降至10%，市场风险偏好持续回暖；②最新卫星图像显 | | | 一、一、 示、俄罗斯近期在芬兰边境新增部署130个年事营地及3座大型仓库、与俄乌战争前夕 | | | 的部署具有相似性,引起北约警觉。 逻辑 | | | 利空：(1)欧洲地区气温回暖,风电、光伏发电资源将有所上升;2因能源成本过高, | | 大型化工企业Sabic正在考虑将生产基地迁出欧盟;3特朗普正积极考虑亲自参加5月 15日伊斯坦布尔俄乌元首会晤的可能性,助力俄乌停战。 风险 1、欧盟恢复俄 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China experienced increased trading activity in April, with daily average trading volume of carbon allowances (CEA) reaching 233,100 tons, a nearly 50% increase from March's 158,800 tons [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notification on April 23 regarding the management of key emission units in the carbon market, which aims to enhance market expectations and promote green and low-carbon transformation in key industries [1][2] Group 1 - The trading activity in the national carbon market improved in April, with over 75% of trading days seeing volumes above 100,000 tons [1] - The notification requires that key emission units in the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with annual direct emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent, be included in the key emission unit directory [2] - The average closing price of CEA in April was 82.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.42% from March's average closing price of 87.90 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - The research center forecasts that carbon market prices will continue to decline in May, with expected buy and sell prices of 78.37 yuan/ton and 82.66 yuan/ton, respectively [2] - The buy price index is projected to decrease by 7.70%, while the sell price index is expected to drop by 7.32% [2] - The notification aims to avoid duplicate management of greenhouse gas emissions by ensuring that key emission units included in the national carbon market do not participate in local carbon markets [2]

（作者系北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院副教授） （文章来源：经济日报） 碳普惠是通过市场化机制激励个人、家庭、社区及中小微企业绿色减碳的创新模式，旨在将微观主体分 散的减碳行为转化为可用于碳足迹抵消、碳市场交易或多元激励兑换的"绿色权益"。近年来，我国在碳 普惠制度设计、平台建设、方法学开发和公众参与等方面取得了积极进展，各地相继出台综合性、领域 特色性碳普惠方法学，为减排量核算提供科学依据。数十个富有地方特色的数字碳普惠平台陆续上线， 如北京上线首个绿色生活碳普惠平台"绿色生活季"，上海推出了绿色出行一体化平台"随申行"，武汉打 造个人数字碳账户平台"武碳江湖"。平台实现个人碳减排量的计量与可视化，可用于兑换礼品礼券，还 支持将减排量捐赠至公益项目、参与"碳中和众筹"等活动。 拓展基于数字化碳普惠平台的应用场景，构建多元化激励机制和减排成果消纳渠道。鼓励政府部门、科 研机构、数字平台企业等加强协同合作，持续完善碳普惠平台的系统架构、底层方法学、核算标准和技 术支撑体系。充分运用物联网、区块链、人工智能等技术，提升对居民衣、食、住、行、用、游等全场 景低碳行为的数据采集、识别与处理能力，实现低碳行为可识别、可 ...

"虽受清明假期效应影响，但4月全国碳市场交易活跃度和稳定性均有所提升，3/4以上交易日的成交量 都在10万吨量能水平之上。"研究中心表示。 研究中心预计，5月份全国碳市场价格仍将走低。该中心公布的2025年5月复旦碳价指数显示，2025年5 月CEA买入价格预期为78.37元/吨，卖出价格预期为82.66元/吨，中间价为80.52元/吨；买入价格指数为 195.92，下跌7.70%；卖出价格指数为186.51，下跌7.32%；中间价格指数为190.97，下跌7.51%。 中化新网讯 受碳市场行业扩容消息提振，全国碳排放权交易市场4月份交易活跃度提升。复旦大学可持 续发展研究中心（以下简称"研究中心"）4月29日发布的数据显示，4月份全国碳市场交易升温，该月碳 配额（CEA）日均成交量为23.31万吨，较3月增幅接近50%。 但在活跃度提升的同时，全国碳市场价格依然持续走低。根据研究中心统计，4月全国碳市场CEA日均 收盘价为82.26元/吨，相较于3月的日均收盘价87.90元/吨下跌6.42%，且呈波动下降态势。 据了解，4月23日生态环境部印发《关于做好2025年全国碳排放权交易市场有关工作的通知》（以下 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Achieving global net-zero carbon emissions requires halting deforestation and leveraging tropical forests as carbon sinks, with market mechanisms from REDD+ projects playing a crucial role [4][10] - Current carbon markets are underdeveloped, with existing mechanisms lacking the quality needed to support expanded demand, although efforts to enhance transparency and regulation are accelerating [4][5] - Innovative financial tools are being explored to mobilize investment in REDD+ frameworks, particularly in tropical countries, with significant potential for future development [5][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Economic Drivers of Deforestation - Deforestation reflects unsustainable economic models in many developing countries, necessitating a fundamental shift towards sustainable growth that aligns economic development with forest conservation [9][10] - Effective policies combining protection and economic incentives are essential to halt deforestation, particularly in the Amazon [9][10] Section 2: JREDD+ Economics - The average price of REDD+ emission reductions (ERs) has increased significantly, from $3.9 per ton in 2019 to $11.21 per ton in 2023, yet the market remains small and insufficient to incentivize deforestation reduction [11][23] - The estimated cost for economically viable REDD+ supply is between $30 to $50 per ton of CO2, indicating a potential for significant cost savings in the transition to net-zero [12] Section 3: Innovative Financial Tools - The report discusses the potential of forest carbon bonds, call options, and put options to lower investment risks and mobilize private capital for REDD+ projects [18][41] - Forest carbon bonds can provide a mechanism for borrowing against future emission reductions, essential for financing necessary investments to curb deforestation [18][41] - Options contracts can help manage risks associated with carbon price fluctuations, allowing for more stable investment environments [54][56] Section 4: Case Study of Brazil - A numerical example from Brazil illustrates how the proposed financial tools can enhance the capacity for private investment and accelerate JREDD+ initiatives [19][20] - The tools discussed could mobilize substantial investment, creating strong policy incentives to prevent deforestation [19][20] Section 5: Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for increased private sector participation in the JREDD+ market, both as buyers of carbon credits and as financiers of emission reduction actions [15][16] - The development of financial solutions tailored to the diverse needs of investors is crucial for attracting private capital to the JREDD+ market [18][32]

Core Viewpoint - The national unified carbon market has established a dual-driven structure of mandatory carbon market and voluntary carbon market, with continuous expansion in trading scale and the development of a governance system where "carbon emissions have costs, and carbon reductions have benefits" [1] Group 1: Current Market Structure - The carbon market has developed into a dual structure consisting of a mandatory carbon emissions trading market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - The trading scale is continuously expanding, indicating a growing demand for professional services related to carbon markets [1] Group 2: Challenges in Professional Services - Market demand has not been fully released due to limited coverage of the mandatory carbon market and a lack of strong willingness among enterprises to manage quotas effectively [2] - There is an uneven development of professional services, with some areas like calibration and verification being more mature than others such as carbon asset management and project development consulting [2] - The entry barriers in many service areas are low or unclear, leading to inconsistent service quality among institutions [2] Group 3: Opportunities for Growth - The transition towards a greener and low-carbon economy presents significant opportunities for the development of carbon market-related professional services [3] - Recommendations include enhancing industry support policies, expanding the scale of both mandatory and voluntary carbon markets, and fostering a robust ecosystem for low-carbon services [3] Group 4: Institutional Development - There is a need to cultivate a diverse matrix of service institutions to meet the varied demands of the carbon market and prevent homogenization of services [4] - Institutions should focus on upgrading their services in energy conservation, inspection, certification, and information technology to expand into carbon-related services [4] Group 5: Service Diversification - Emphasis on combining "soft services" and "hard services" to enhance the quality and diversity of professional services [4] - Development of new service scenarios such as carbon trading consultants and carbon financial advisors is encouraged to meet the evolving needs of the market [4] Group 6: Regulatory Mechanisms - Establishment of a comprehensive regulatory mechanism is essential to ensure the quality and standards of professional services in the carbon market [5][6] - Regular evaluations and the publication of service institution lists can help improve service quality and foster public oversight [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trading volume exceeded 800,000 tons, with CEA experiencing a significant decline [3]. - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **CEA**: CEA21, CEA23, and CEA24 saw significant declines. The listed volume was 106,300 tons, and the bulk volume was 712,300 tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, and 70.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, - 3.42%, 0.00%, - 2.71%, and - 4.33% [3][4]. - **CCER**: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.00 tons, the average trading price was 96.13 yuan/ton (a 1.19% increase), the trading volume was 0.00 tons, the turnover was 250,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,689,800 tons [3][5]. Strategy - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. Core Logic - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3].