Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sustained high enthusiasm for new fund issuance, with 31 new funds starting fundraising this week [1] - On Monday alone, 17 products were launched, indicating a concentrated effort in the market [1] - Equity funds continue to dominate the market, with a total of 19 new equity funds launched this week [1] Group 2 - Mixed funds accounted for 8 of the new offerings, while bond funds saw a significant decrease in issuance, with only 4 new bond funds [1] - The technology sector emerged as a key focus for new fund launches, with products such as Penghua Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI ETF and others being introduced this week [1]

2025 年 07 月 27 日 债券产品占 ETF 总规模接近 10% ——2025 年二季度指数基金季报分析 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ETP 研 究 | 1. 2025 年二季度指数基金市场规模变化 4 | | --- | | 2.二季度指数基金募集与申报情况 10 | | 3. 二季度 ETF 市场表现 12 | | 4. 风险提示及声明 15 | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共16页 简单金融 成就梦想 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 被动指数基金规模维持平稳，ETF 比例提升。截止到 2025 年二季度，市场上的 2587 只 非货币指数基金资产规模共计 5.61 万亿元，较上季度规模增加 0.64 万亿元， ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Timing System Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend. If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute distance exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend[2][10][16] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the WIND All A Index 2. Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - 20-day MA: Short-term moving average - 120-day MA: Long-term moving average 3. If the distance is greater than 3% and the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, the market is in an upward trend[2][10][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies upward market trends and provides a clear signal for timing decisions[2][10][16] 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies sectors with potential for outperformance based on medium-term trends and specific themes, such as "distressed reversal" and "high elasticity" sectors[3][11][16] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze sector performance and valuation metrics 2. Identify sectors with medium-term growth potential, such as distressed reversal sectors (e.g., Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption) 3. Highlight high-elasticity sectors like technology, military, AI applications, and solid-state batteries based on the TWO BETA model[3][11][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for sector allocation during upward market trends, focusing on high-growth and high-elasticity sectors[3][11][16] 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the optimal stock allocation ratio based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][11] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess the valuation levels of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB metrics 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend stock allocation ratios 3. Current recommendation: Allocate 80% of absolute return products to stocks based on the WIND All A Index[3][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to managing stock positions, balancing valuation levels and market trends[3][11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Model - **Distance between Moving Averages**: 5.21% (greater than the 3% threshold, indicating an upward trend)[2][10][16] 2. Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Distressed reversal sectors: Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, Hang Seng consumption - High-elasticity sectors: Technology, military, AI applications, solid-state batteries[3][11][16] 3. Position Management Model - **Stock Allocation Recommendation**: 80% allocation to stocks based on the WIND All A Index[3][11]

Market Overview - The report indicates that major asset classes have shown positive performance, with Hong Kong stocks leading, followed by crude oil and A-shares. The A-share market saw the ChiNext Index increase by 3.17% [2][6] - The average stock position of all funds decreased to 78.89%, a drop of 1.38 percentage points from the previous week. However, the average position for ordinary equity funds rose to 83.57%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points [2][10] Equity Fund Performance - Passive index funds averaged an increase of 1.92%, while ordinary equity funds saw an average rise of 2.94%. Enhanced index funds increased by 1.49%, and flexible allocation funds rose by 2.19%. The best-performing fund in the passive category was the Invesco CSI Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF, which surged by 13.98% [3][11] - The report highlights that the average performance of various equity fund types shows significant variability, with the top-performing funds in the ordinary equity category achieving a maximum increase of 17.61% [12][13] Fixed Income Fund Performance - Fixed income products also showed positive trends, with mixed bond funds averaging a 0.49% increase. The best performer in this category was the Huashang Dual-Wing Balanced Mixed A, which rose by 5.09% [14] - The report details that short-term pure bond funds had a minimal average increase of 0.05%, indicating a relatively stable performance in the fixed income market [14][15] Other Fund Categories - Commodity funds averaged a 0.51% increase, with the highest performer being the soybean meal ETF, which rose by 2.43%. International (QDII) funds performed well, averaging a 2.46% increase, with the top fund gaining 15.89% [15][16] - REITs funds remained stable, with the best performer showing a modest increase of 3.05% [16] Fund Market Dynamics - The report notes that 36 new funds were established this week, raising a total of 180.74 billion, which is a decrease compared to the previous week. Among these, 20 were equity funds, which raised the largest amount at 63.38 billion [18][19] - As of July 18, 2025, the total number of public funds reached 12,963, with a total net asset value of 33.78 trillion [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights an upcoming live discussion featuring prominent figures in technology and economics, focusing on their new book "2049: The Possibilities of the Next 10,000 Days," which explores significant changes in technology, society, and the economy over the next 25 years [1]. Summary by Sections - The live event will feature Shitai Feng, a partner at Chongyang Investment, and Wu Chen, a renowned financial writer and former editor of "The Economist: Business Review," discussing the insights from their collaboration with Kevin Kelly, a notable technology thinker [1]. - Kevin Kelly is recognized for his foresight in predicting trends such as the internet, artificial intelligence, and the sharing economy, while Wu Chen is known for his deep exploration of technological innovation and global trends [1]. - The book "2049" serves not only as a futurist work but also as a guide for navigating uncertainties in the coming years, covering topics from "mirror worlds" to AI collaboration, genetic revolutions, and space economy [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from July 14 to July 18, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 1.37%. Among broad - based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext - related ETFs was 3.17%, the highest. By sector, the median return of technology ETFs was 2.39%, the highest. By theme, the median return of AI ETFs was 6.87%, the highest [1]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 15.756 billion yuan, but the overall scale increased by 27.982 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had the most net subscriptions at 325 million yuan; by sector, large - financial ETFs had the most net subscriptions at 4.104 billion yuan; by hot - theme, chip ETFs had the most net subscriptions at 4.32 billion yuan [2]. - As of last Friday, China Asset Management, E Fund Management, and Huatai - Peregrine Fund Management ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. Five ETFs are to be issued this week, including China AMC CSI A500 Enhanced Strategy ETF, Penghua SZSE Robotics Industry ETF, etc. [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was 1.37%. Among broad - based ETFs, ChiNext - related, Science and Technology Innovation Board, A500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 ETFs had median returns of 3.17%, 3.02%, 1.64%, 1.45%, 1.37%, 1.24%, and 0.66% respectively. Among other types, cross - border, commodity, bond, and money - market ETFs had median returns of 2.79%, 0.39%, 0.06%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, consumption, cyclical, and large - financial sector ETFs were 2.39%, 2.00%, 1.37%, and - 0.81% respectively. By theme, AI, robotics, and pharmaceutical ETFs had relatively strong performance with median returns of 6.87%, 4.25%, and 3.33% respectively, while photovoltaic, securities, and bank ETFs had relatively weak performance with median returns of - 1.09%, - 0.96%, and - 0.46% respectively [16]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3.0774 trillion yuan, 635 billion yuan, and 494.6 billion yuan respectively, while money - market and commodity ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 160.8 billion yuan and 159.4 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, CSI 300 and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had larger scales [18][21]. - By sector, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 263.8 billion yuan, followed by consumption sector ETFs at 148.6 billion yuan. By theme, chip, pharmaceutical, and securities ETFs had the highest scales [23]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 15.756 billion yuan but an overall scale increase of 27.982 billion yuan; money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 4.885 billion yuan and an overall scale decrease of 4.871 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had the most net subscriptions at 325 million yuan, and A500 ETFs had the most net redemptions at 9.823 billion yuan. By sector, large - financial ETFs had the most net subscriptions at 4.104 billion yuan, and consumption ETFs had the most net redemptions at 2.006 billion yuan. By theme, chip ETFs had the most net subscriptions at 4.32 billion yuan, and AI ETFs had the most net redemptions at 3.284 billion yuan [29][32]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, in broad - based ETFs, ChiNext - related ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, consumption ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, wine and photovoltaic ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of technology and AI ETFs increased significantly [3][40]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - From last Monday to Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 41.333 billion yuan in the previous week to 41.275 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.215 billion shares in the previous week to 2.186 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short - selling volumes, Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs and chip ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases, while CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 300 ETFs had higher average daily short - selling volumes [4][50]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, China Asset Management, E Fund Management, and Huatai - Peregrine Fund Management ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. China Asset Management had high management scales in multiple segments such as scale - index, industry - index, and theme - style - strategy - index ETFs; E Fund Management had high management scales in scale - index and cross - border ETFs; Huatai - Peregrine Fund Management had high management scales in scale - index and theme - style - strategy - index ETFs [51]. - Ten new ETFs were established last week, and five ETFs are to be issued this week [54].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Hang Seng Qianhai Hong Kong-Shanghai Emerging Industry Selected Mixed Fund (004332) reported a profit of 2.2711 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0446 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 4.18%, and the fund size reached 56.6848 million yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][14]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 1.166 yuan. The fund manager, Xing Cheng, currently manages four funds. The Hang Seng Qianhai High-end Manufacturing Mixed A fund had the highest one-year growth rate at 38.68%, while the Hang Seng Qianhai Hong Kong-Shanghai Emerging Industry Selected Mixed Fund had the lowest at 16.15% [3]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a three-month growth rate of 12.63%, a six-month growth rate of 10.71%, a one-year growth rate of 16.15%, and a three-year growth rate of -38.20% [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.4274, ranking 284 out of 319 comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 54.08%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 29.78% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintained an average stock position of 89.57% over the past three years, higher than the comparable average of 83.13%. The fund reached its highest stock position of 94.03% at the end of Q1 2025 and its lowest at 69.98% at the end of 2022 [13]. - The fund manager anticipates a market characterized by fluctuations and structural opportunities, with limited macro policy support. The focus is on thematic and value assets that are less correlated with macroeconomic cycles, which may benefit from lower discount rates and liquidity overflow [3]. Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Shenghong Technology, Dongpeng Beverage, Lanke Technology, Chuanfeng Power, New Strong Union, Daotong Technology, Pudong Development Bank, Longxin General, Daikin Heavy Industry, and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical [17].

瑞财经 王敏 近日，国联民生证券股份有限公司（以下简称"国联民生"）发布2025年半年度业绩预增公告。 葛小波曾任中信证券股份有限公司投资银行部经理、高级经理，保荐代表人，A股上市办公室副主任，风险控制部 副总经理和执行总经理，交易与衍生产品业务部、计划财务部、风险管理部、海外业务及固定收益业务行政负责 人，执行委员会委员、财务负责人、首席风险官；曾兼任中信证券国际有限公司、里昂证券、华夏基金管理有限公 司、中信证券投资有限公司、中信产业投资基金管理有限公司、中海基金等公司董事，中证协创新委员会副主任委 员、海外委员会副主任委员。 | | 2020-12-31 | 2021-12-31 2022-12-31 | | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ 葛小波 | 276.0万 | 376.0万 | 456. 0万 | 288.0万 | 143.5万 | | 行业平均 | 179.8万 | 226. 5万 | 191. 2万 | 136. 7万 | 141. 1万 | 经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Technology Media Communication 150, experienced a decline of 0.36%, closing at 2020.14 points with a trading volume of 1739.25 billion [1] - Over the past month, the CSI Technology Media Communication 150 index has increased by 10.92%, 13.82% over the last three months, and 9.03% year-to-date [1] - The index comprises 150 large-cap, high-growth listed companies from the technology, media, and communication sectors, with a base date of June 30, 2011, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Technology Media Communication 150 index include Luxshare Precision (4.06%), SMIC (3.74%), and others, with the total weight of these stocks contributing significantly to the index [1] - The market capitalization distribution shows that 57.27% of the index is from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, while 42.73% is from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - The industry composition of the index indicates that 82.00% is in information technology and 18.00% in communication services [1] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Public funds tracking the CSI Technology Media Communication 150 include the Invesco Great Wall CSI Technology Media Communication 150 ETF and its corresponding fund [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance will issue 60 billion RMB in government bonds in Macau on July 16, marking the fourth consecutive year of such issuances in the region [1] - This issuance is the first RMB bond in Macau since the bond market infrastructure between Hong Kong and Macau was connected, indicating a significant step in regional financial integration [1] - The scale of the bond issuance is a historical high, and the optimized maturity structure is expected to enhance the regular issuance mechanism, supporting the development of Macau's bond market and its economic diversification [1] Group 2 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo will open in Beijing on July 16, featuring 1,200 exhibitors, including 651 domestic and foreign enterprises [2] - The expo will cover six major supply chain sectors: advanced manufacturing, green agriculture, digital technology, healthy living, smart vehicles, and clean energy [2] Group 3 - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games will commence on August 14 in Beijing, with an energy transmission event starting on July 15 at the Badaling Great Wall [4][6] - Eight humanoid robot athletes will participate in the energy transmission activity, showcasing technological innovation and interaction with the public [6][7] - The event will culminate at the National Speed Skating Hall, where all energy cubes will form the "Smart Core," symbolizing collaboration and technological advancement [9][11] Group 4 - The 11th batch of national organized drug centralized procurement has been initiated, including 55 drug varieties, while new drugs will not be included to protect industry innovation [12] - Since 2018, the national level has conducted 10 batches of drug procurement, covering a total of 435 drug varieties [12] Group 5 - The new regulations for individual business registration have been officially implemented, allowing individual businesses to transition to enterprises while retaining their social credit codes and other identifiers, thus reducing the cost of transformation [13] Group 6 - The Barkun Airport in Xinjiang officially commenced operations on July 15, with an annual passenger throughput design capacity of 300,000 and a cargo throughput of 700 tons, enhancing the regional air transport network [14] Group 7 - The flow of the Yellow River at the Lijin hydrological station has receded to 725 cubic meters per second, marking the completion of the 2025 Yellow River water and sediment regulation project, achieving multiple objectives including drought relief and ecological replenishment [15]