韩国总统李在明26日在国会发表施政演说，强调搞活民生和提振经济是当务之急。若当前的低增长状态长期持续，将陷入更难把握机会、竞争和矛盾激化的恶性循环。只要资本市场恢复透明公正运转，就能形成经济复苏、企业发展的良性循环，进而迈入韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）突破5000点大关的时代。 ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Financial Futures Morning Express" and is dated June 26, 2025, prepared by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd [1] Market Performance A-share Market - On June 25, the four major A-share stock indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04% to close at 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72% to 10393.72 points, the ChiNext Index climbed 3.11% to 2128.39 points, and the STAR 50 Index went up 1.73% to 995.61 points. Market turnover was 1639.5 billion yuan, an increase of 191.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, non-bank finance (+4.46%), national defense and military industry (+3.36%), and computer (+2.99%) led the gains, while coal (-1%), petroleum and petrochemical (-0.57%), and transportation (-0.21%) saw declines [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3916, 217, and 1284 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 63, -117, -61, and 115 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -26, -91, +45, and +72 billion yuan [2] Treasury Bond Futures Market - On June 25, most yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.302, down 0.39 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.457, up 0.36 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.578, up 0.9 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.925, up 1.57 bps [3] Futures Analysis Stock Index Futures - **Base Spread**: The base spreads of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 97.16, 65.15, 35.07, and 27.33 points respectively, with annualized base spread yields of -10.19%, -7.31%, -5.83%, and -6.54%. The three - year historical quantiles were 33%, 28%, 21%, and 19% respectively. The base spread of the mid - cap index has moved away from the bottom [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The deep discount of small - cap stock indices may continue due to the expansion of neutral product scale this year and the relatively high proportion of short positions in neutral products. Short - cycle band strategies are recommended. In the medium - to - long term, a long - economic view is maintained, and it is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - caps, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3] Treasury Bond Futures - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -0.35 bps, a corresponding net base spread of -0.032, and an IRR of 1.83%. For the five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures, relevant data of CTD bonds are also provided [4] - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 209 billion yuan, with a currency injection of 365.3 billion yuan and a currency withdrawal of 156.3 billion yuan [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The cash bond market currently shows strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern may change. It is recommended to take a short - term long and long - term short strategy, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real estate market sentiment have contracted [13]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need for the normalization of the capital market in South Korea to foster economic recovery and corporate development [1] - President Lee Jae-myung highlighted the urgency of revitalizing livelihoods and boosting the economy, warning against the risks of prolonged low growth leading to a vicious cycle of missed opportunities and intensified competition [1] - The goal is to achieve a significant milestone in the KOSPI index, aiming to surpass the 5000-point mark, which is seen as a symbol of economic recovery [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,900 stocks rose in the market, indicating a broad-based rally [1] - Financial stocks were a major driver of this rally, with several stocks, including Guosheng Financial Holdings, hitting the daily limit. The four major banks (Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank) also reached historical highs. This surge is attributed to improved economic recovery expectations and ample market liquidity, leading investors to favor financial stocks with stable performance and valuation advantages [1] Group 2 - AIA Group appointed Yu Hong as the new General Manager of AIA Life Insurance, with approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration. Yu Hong, born in 1968, previously served as the General Manager of Ping An Life Insurance, overseeing daily operations before joining AIA [2] Group 3 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs surpassed 200 billion yuan for the first time as of June 23, marking it as one of the fastest-growing segments in the ETF market this year. This growth is driven by a shift in investor preference towards stable income assets, with the first batch of eight benchmark market-making products launched at the beginning of the year, leading to rapid scale expansion. Continuous policy support has also contributed to the improvement in product design, liquidity management, and trading mechanisms [3] - Credit bond ETFs are expected to become a core component of fixed-income investments due to their low volatility, low cost, and high liquidity, meeting the increasing demand for income-generating assets amid an "asset shortage" environment [3] Group 4 - CITIC Securities announced plans to issue the first broker-dealer technology innovation bond in the interbank bond market, with a basic issuance scale of 500 million yuan and an additional 500 million yuan in excess issuance rights. The bond has a five-year term, with the issuance date set for June 26, 2025. The funds raised will support various initiatives in the technology innovation sector, effectively expanding the issuance channels for broker-dealer technology innovation bonds [4] Group 5 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a "wait-and-see" strategy during a congressional hearing on June 24, indicating that the Fed is in a position to wait before adjusting its policy stance based on economic developments. This statement is expected to stabilize market sentiment and reduce volatility due to policy uncertainty, while investors will likely focus on economic data to gauge future Fed policy directions [5]

世界银行批准为叙利亚提供1.46亿美元赠款，旨在帮助恢复可靠且价格合理的电力供应，并支持该国的 经济复苏。 ...

Group 1 - The German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose in June, increasing from 48.5 in May to 50.4, marking the highest level in 34 months and surpassing the 50 threshold, indicating potential recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - The services sector in Germany continued to contract in June, but the pace of decline slowed significantly, with the PMI rising to 49.4 from 47.1 in May, suggesting an improvement in business activity [1] - Four German economic institutions have raised their growth forecasts for 2025, anticipating a recovery after two consecutive years of economic contraction [1] Group 2 - Investor confidence in Germany has increased, partly due to expectations of significant government spending increases from the new government [2] - The latest data from the Federal Statistical Office indicates a rise in manufacturing order demand, with a 4% year-on-year increase in April's order backlog, primarily driven by the automotive sector [2] - Major companies' leaders, including Deutsche Bank and Siemens, participated in the German Industry Day, where the Chancellor emphasized the need for trust between government and business [2] Group 3 - The German Industrial Association (BDI) expressed concerns about uncertainties facing German companies, predicting that the recovery will be slow and challenging [3] - BDI Chairman highlighted various "flashpoints," such as tariff conflicts with the U.S., and emphasized the importance of implementing government measures like tax cuts and energy price reductions to stimulate the economy [3] - The German central bank's president noted that the economic outlook remains uncertain, largely dependent on the progress of tariff negotiations between Germany and the U.S. [3]

Group 1 - The issuance of consumption vouchers is a key measure to stimulate consumer spending during the summer season, with various regions implementing initiatives such as automobile, renovation, and dining vouchers [1][2] - New types of consumption vouchers, particularly for childcare services, are gaining attention, with regions like Jiangxi and Hainan providing direct subsidies to reduce costs for families with young children [1][2] - The design of these consumption vouchers aligns with public demand and addresses industry shortcomings, aiming to activate the local economy and improve living standards [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that the issuance of consumption vouchers can create a multiplier effect, significantly boosting sales in targeted areas during promotional events [3] - Experts suggest that the current wave of consumption vouchers will enhance consumer confidence and contribute to sustained economic recovery, particularly during the peak summer consumption period [3] - Recommendations for further measures include focusing on travel, cultural tourism, and dining sectors, as well as enhancing support for elderly and childcare services to alleviate household financial burdens [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee amid political pressure for significant rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are becoming more pronounced, with members supporting early easing policies conflicting with Powell's "patience" stance [1] - Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian notes that political influences may be affecting FOMC decisions, potentially disrupting fixed income and foreign exchange markets [1] Group 2: Currency Movements - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, reaching a near eight-day high, supported by reduced demand for the dollar as a safe haven and a narrowing yield spread between German and U.S. two-year bonds [3] - The eurozone's inflation rate could decrease by 0.3 percentage points for every $10 drop in oil prices, providing room for future European Central Bank policy adjustments [3] - The British pound is expected to recover against the euro after a weak June, with historical trends suggesting poor performance for the euro against the pound in the latter half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.4, and the Business Expectations Index jumped to 90.7, although the impact on exchange rates is limited [3] - The UK manufacturing sector is under significant pressure, with the most severe order contraction reported since January, amid rising energy and labor costs [6] - Japan's core CPI remains high, and recent PMI data has improved, increasing market expectations for potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is some expansion in UK business activity in June, the overall growth remains weak and the economic recovery faces multiple challenges [1][2] - The June manufacturing PMI in the UK is reported at 47.7, exceeding expectations of 46.6 and the previous value of 46.4, while the services PMI stands at 51.3, matching expectations and showing an increase from 50.9 [1] - The composite PMI for June is at 50.7, slightly above the expected 50.5 and up from 50.3 in the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in business conditions [1] Group 2 - Employment, new export business, and future output indices in the UK composite PMI have deteriorated, influenced by increased global economic and political uncertainties [2] - The new orders index has surpassed the growth threshold of 50 for the first time since November of the previous year, yet layoffs are accelerating due to rising employer social security contributions introduced by the UK Chancellor [2] - Business confidence remains low compared to the same period last year, with companies facing higher labor costs and lower demand, leading to continued job losses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.8 in June from 52.2 in May, marking a five-month low and below analysts' expectations of 50.5, indicating a challenging economic environment [1][4]. Economic Performance - The services PMI dropped to 51.3 in June, the lowest level this year, down from 53.1 in May, reflecting a slowdown in new orders and business confidence [5]. - The manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.5, slightly improving from 46.1 in May, but still well below the 50 mark, indicating ongoing demand weakness [8]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's composite PMI fell to 49.8 in June from 52.4 in May, indicating significant economic challenges, with both services and manufacturing sectors showing weakness [9]. - France's economic performance deteriorated further, with a composite PMI of 45.7 in June, down from 48.9 in May, indicating deep recessions in both services and manufacturing sectors [10]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Eurozone economy may face greater pressure in the latter part of the year due to weak consumer confidence and inflation remaining above the ECB's 2% target [12]. - The ECB's recent rate cuts may limit further monetary easing, as inflation has recently dropped below the target, and the central bank is expected to pause further rate reductions [12].