Core Viewpoint - The letter emphasizes the importance of identifying and holding the best businesses in a city, focusing on a few certainty opportunities for long-term investment success [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The strategy involves concentrating on a limited number of high-quality businesses and low-valued assets, with the belief that fewer, well-chosen investments lead to better outcomes [4][10]. - The current market is characterized by significant volatility and structural opportunities, particularly in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]. Market Observations - The stock market is divided between high-growth sectors like new consumption and innovative drugs, and a majority of companies that remain undervalued and face strong competition [4]. - The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is expected to provide additional rewards for Chinese assets as they gain equal footing globally [2][10]. Key Investment Areas - The portfolio includes several promising sectors: 1. Major entertainment and social platforms evolving towards AI agents [5]. 2. Companies with strong pricing power in advanced chip design [6]. 3. Firms possessing scarce copper and gold resources amid a weakening dollar trend [7]. 4. Leading AI models and public cloud services essential for businesses utilizing AI [8]. 5. Brands focused on sports and outdoor lifestyles, showing significant improvements in supply chain and brand management [9]. Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market has emerged as a leading venue for IPO financing, signaling a shift in international capital's perception of Chinese assets [10]. - The influx of capital into Hong Kong is contributing to a vibrant and prosperous market environment [10].

A股 Market - The Hong Kong IPO market has been robust in the first half of the year, with 31 listings and a total fundraising amount of 884 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total and regaining the top position globally for IPO financing [2] - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up over 1%, reaching a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index rose over 3%, with total market turnover on that day reaching 16,394 billion CNY and over 3,900 stocks rising [2] - China Construction Bank successfully raised 105 billion CNY through a private placement of A-shares, with the funds allocated to supplement its core Tier 1 capital [2] - Recent months have seen significant licensing deals in China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, including a deal by 3SBio worth over 6 billion USD and a strategic collaboration between CSPC and AstraZeneca valued at 5.33 billion USD [2] REITs - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have recently approved a batch of public REITs, with notable fund managers like China Asset Management and Southern Fund among the approved entities, alongside newcomer CCB Financial [3] Financial Sector - As of June 26, both onshore and offshore RMB against USD have surpassed 7.16, with the offshore rate peaking at 7.1525 and the onshore rate at 7.1565, marking the highest levels since mid-November last year [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 365.3 billion CNY, resulting in a net injection of 209 billion CNY after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4] - The first batch of 26 new floating-rate funds has raised over 12.6 billion CNY, with several funds exceeding 1 billion CNY in fundraising [4] - Recent disclosures indicate that the scope of special bonds is expanding, with new uses including government investment funds and addressing local government debts [4] - The cross-border payment system has officially launched, allowing real-time remittances between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong [4] Consumer Market - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to boost consumption, with retail sales in the Yangtze River Delta showing positive growth in the first five months of the year [5] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has developed guidelines for adjusting the basic medical insurance directory, indicating a growing role for commercial health insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system [5] - A new implementation plan for high-quality development of inclusive finance has been released, aiming to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system over the next five years [5] - Several cities have expanded the use of housing provident funds to support down payments for home purchases [5]

6月份以来，外资机构密集发声，力挺中国资产。高盛、摩根士丹利、德意志银行等多家外资机构 不仅上调了对2025年中国经济增长的预期，还表示看好中国股票市场后续表现。例如，德意志银行将 2025年中国GDP增长预测上调0.2个百分点；摩根士丹利在年中展望报告里也上调了对2025年中国经济 增速预期，将今明两年的经济增速分别上调0.3个百分点和0.2个百分点；野村证券将中国全年GDP增长 预测上调0.5个百分点。 摩根士丹利研报认为，中国股市盈利修正企稳的迹象让我们看到了盈利和估值进一步上行的空间。 全球投资者的低配仓位以及人民币走强或将助力股市继续上行。 6月27日早盘，A股市场主要指数小幅高开。截至9:32，A500ETF基金（512050）涨0.21%，盘中成 交额快速突破3000万元位居同类第一。持仓股星源材质、金诚信、天齐锂业、天华新能、赣锋锂业等领 涨。 短期市场风格快速轮动，主线不明情形下，中证A500指数等均衡宽基或是把握估值中枢提升的较 好方式，当前有不少主动权益基金放弃了沪深300等传统宽基指数，转向了中证A500指数等新兴指数， 也证明了中证A500的优质编制方案。相关ETF中，A500ETF ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三市场继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market shows resilience, with the S&P 500 index approaching historical highs, driven by easing geopolitical risks and falling oil prices [1][8]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index remained stable, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.3% [2][3]. - Recent market movements were influenced by a significant drop in oil prices, with WTI crude futures plummeting 6% on Tuesday, alleviating inflationary pressures and encouraging capital inflow into the stock market [8]. Chinese Stocks and Foreign Investment - Chinese stocks are gaining attention from foreign investors, with UBS reporting a shift from underweight to neutral or even overweight positions in Chinese equities [4]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4600 for the CSI 300 index and 84 for MSCI China, indicating about a 10% upside potential [4]. - Morgan Stanley highlights that global investors are underexposed to Chinese stocks, predicting that Hong Kong markets and Chinese ADRs will attract significant capital inflows in the next 6-12 months [5]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Chinese equities are perceived as attractive due to their higher value-for-money and better growth prospects, with a free cash flow yield of 7.8% compared to 4.2% for U.S. tech giants [5]. - HSBC notes that the profit growth level of the Chinese stock market is now comparable to that of the U.S., while valuations remain at half of U.S. stock levels [6]. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Focus - The market's short-term focus is shifting towards upcoming U.S. new home sales data and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony, which are expected to provide insights into economic fundamentals and policy direction [11]. - Powell has previously indicated that monetary policy will remain stable, with a need to assess the impact of tariffs and global market changes on price structures [11].

隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴跌46.02美元，跌幅1.37%，报3323.00美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金窄幅震荡，目前在3323美元附近徘徊。 美联储坚持不降息！ 隔夜，美股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，纳指涨1.43%，道指涨1.19%，标普500指数涨1.11%。其中，道指创3月初以来收盘新高，标普500指数、纳指 均创2月下旬以来收盘新高。 消息面上，当地时间周二，美联储主席鲍威尔如期出席了众议院金融服务委员会听证会。他对国会议员们表示，预计通胀将很快开始上升，美联储将继续 观望经济形势，然后再决定是否需要降低利率。鲍威尔表示美联储大多数决策者支持今年晚些时候降息，他本人不同意在7月会议降息。 对于中东紧张局势的影响，鲍威尔表示，现在了解中东紧张局势对经济的影响还显得操之过急。 在鲍威尔前往国会之前，美国总统特朗普再度公开抨击鲍威尔，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，鲍威尔是"太迟了"的"顽固分子"，希望国会"好好修理"他， 并预言将为他的"无能"付出多年代价。 特朗普还表示："美国没有通胀，经济繁荣——我们应该至少降息2个百分点。每年将为美国节省8000亿美元。如果日后形势转差，那就加息。" 在此之前，特朗普已经多次发表 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% to 3455.97 points, marking a new high since December 12, 2024 [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 3.11%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.72%, while major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and STAR 50 all gained over 1% [1][2] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,027.88 billion yuan, an increase of 1,881.74 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - The financial sector saw significant gains, with brokerage firms, financial technology, and banks performing well. Notable stocks included Dongfang Caifu and Tianfeng Securities, which hit the daily limit [3][5] - The military and aerospace sectors also experienced strong performance, with several stocks reaching their daily limit due to upcoming commemorative events [5][7] Notable Stocks - Dongfang Caifu's stock price rose by 10.04% to 24.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of 379.297 billion yuan [6] - Other notable performers included Guosheng Jinkong and Tianfeng Securities, both of which saw increases of over 10% [6] Industry Trends - The semiconductor sector showed strength, with stocks like Tailin Micro and Taiji Co. hitting their daily limit, driven by a surge in demand for DDR4 memory due to production halts by major manufacturers [8] - Conversely, the oil and gas sector continued to decline, with stocks like Zhun Oil and Beiken Energy experiencing significant drops due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [9][10] Future Outlook - Foreign investment firms are optimistic about Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 [10] - JPMorgan highlighted China's leading position in various technology sectors, suggesting that global investors are increasingly focused on China's innovation and dominance [11]

Group 1 - The A500ETF by Jiashi has shown strong liquidity with a turnover rate of 5.32% and a transaction volume of 790 million yuan, ranking among the top two comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 2.842 billion yuan [2] - The latest scale of A500ETF by Jiashi reached 14.823 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past month, with a significant increase of 13.8 million shares over the past week [2] - A500ETF by Jiashi has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 135 million yuan, totaling 336 million yuan [2] Group 2 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Midea Group, Yangtze Power, Industrial Bank, BYD, Zijin Mining, and Dongfang Fortune, collectively accounting for 21.21% of the index [2] - Major foreign investment firms have recently expressed optimism about Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, citing resilience in China's economic growth and potential policy support in the second half of the year [2] - JPMorgan's emerging markets equity strategist highlighted that technology is a long-term structural trend globally, with China leading in many tech sectors, making it a favorable investment opportunity [3]

Group 1 - The official announcement states that basic pensions do not require individual income tax payments, differentiating them from personal pensions which have a contribution cap of 12,000 yuan per year and offer tax benefits [3][2]. Group 2 - A significant issue has arisen regarding the recall of Romoss power banks, with multiple courier companies, including SF Express, refusing to accept these items due to safety risks associated with battery products [5][7]. - SF Express has stopped accepting various battery-related items, including mobile power banks, to mitigate self-ignition risks, which has led other companies like Yunda and Zhongtong to follow suit [7][8]. - Romoss is currently negotiating with courier companies for a unified recall plan, but as of the latest updates, no specific solutions have been announced [7]. Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.24 points, marking a 1.19% increase, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing by 1.43% [10]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, indicating a strong performance among Chinese concept stocks, with notable gains from companies like Xiaoma Zhixing and New Oriental [10]. Group 4 - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by 6.04% to $64.37 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures falling by 6.17% to $66.17 per barrel, marking the largest single-day drop since March [12]. - Gold prices also faced pressure, with COMEX gold futures down by 1.80%, settling at $3333.9 per ounce [13]. - The airline sector benefited from falling oil prices, as indicated by a 2.4% increase in the S&P 1500 Airline Index, while defense stocks faced declines [14].

Market Insights - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, surged over 3%, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rose more than 8%, indicating a strong performance of Chinese assets [1] - Major foreign investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have expressed bullish sentiments towards Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Macro Developments - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released 19 measures aimed at enhancing financial services to boost and expand consumption, focusing on improving capital market functions and increasing financial support for key consumption areas [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise soon, and the Fed will continue to monitor economic conditions before deciding on interest rate cuts, with most policymakers supporting a potential cut later this year [4] Industry Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of a "New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" in 2025, aimed at promoting suitable new energy vehicle models to meet diverse consumer needs in rural areas [3] - The gaming industry received a boost with the approval of 147 domestic games and 11 imported games by the National Press and Publication Administration, suggesting a positive outlook for new game launches in 2025 [7][8] Policy Focus - Guangdong province is accelerating initiatives for trade-in programs for automobiles, home appliances, and digital devices, which may stimulate consumption in these sectors [9] - Uber and Waymo are expanding their partnership to launch Robotaxi services in Atlanta, reflecting a growing focus on smart and connected vehicles within the automotive industry [9]