丙午马年，骐骥昂首。当免签"朋友圈"扩容红利与"史上最长假期"相遇，一场跨越山海的双向奔赴由此 开启。从口岸通关的人潮涌动，到离境退税门店的消费火爆，再到泰国、韩国等目的地的出境游浪 潮，"马不停蹄"的跨境游热潮，不仅为全球旅游消费注入了新动能，更以鲜活的消费图景，折射出中国 大市场的强劲脉动。 春节跨境游之热，首先源自往来之"畅"。丙午马年第一天，中国对加拿大、英国持普通护照人员实施免 签政策，单方面免签"朋友圈"正式扩容至50国，这一政策与超长假期形成叠加效应，直接点燃了外国游 客来华过年的热情。春节假期全国边检机关查验的131.3万人次入境外国人中，适用免签政策入境的达 46万人次，较去年假期日均增长28.5%。数字的攀升印证着政策红利的充分释放。不仅入境游迎来井 喷，中国公民出境游同样迎来黄金期，泰国、韩国、马来西亚等短线目的地热度居高不下，中外人员双 向流动的规模持续刷新，单日出入境通关高峰更是达到225.9万人次。从免签政策扩围到240小时过境免 签的全域覆盖，从直航航线的加密到口岸精细化服务的升级，中国正以实打实的政策举措，向世界传递 出"开放大门越开越大"的鲜明信号。 春节跨境游之热，还在于文 ...

头部三强的地位依然稳固。上海以56708.71亿元的经济总量遥遥领先，年度增量高达2949.18亿元，问鼎全国，犹如经济宇宙中的一颗超级恒星，光芒四射。 北京紧随其后，突破5.2万亿大关，2403.2亿元的增量同样实力非凡。京沪双雄构筑的5万亿壁垒，短期内难以被其他城市撼动，它们是中国经济的绝对领跑 者，是屹立于世界城市之林的巅峰代表。 | . | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 地区 | 2025 J | 2024 | 撸量 | 名义 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 增长率 | | | 1 上海市 | 56708.71 53759.53 | | 2949.18 | 5.49% | | 2 | 北京市 | 52073.4 | 49670.2 | 2403.2 | 4.84% | | 3 | 深圳市 | 38731.8 36943.75 1788.05 | | | 4.84% | | 4 | 重庆市 | 33757.93 32046.73 | | 1711.2 | 5.34% | | 5 | 广州 ...

（来源：经济参考报） 联博基金日前发布中国资本市场观点表示，展望2026年权益市场，可关注中国经济转型升级契机下的资 本市场表现。"反内卷"、企业出海与AI等因素有望支持企业盈利改善。2026年随着经济转型推进，A股 企业有望迎来更强的盈余增长动能。从行业来看，新消费、创新药与科技AI等领域不容忽视。债券市 场方面，明确的趋势性行情或较难出现，区间震荡或更趋常态化。 联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良表示，具体来看，经济结构转型包括消费形态的转型、竞争模式转型 （"反内卷"）与经营模式转型。中国政府推动提高经济质量的政策对资本市场构成支持。 在消费领域，朱良表示，消费在GDP中的比重逐步上升，相关拉动举措可能使新消费成为重要投资方 向。消费形态方面也在经历转型，年轻群体更注重消费体验与情绪价值，追求即时满足与高反馈。这 种"小确幸"式消费偏好有利于细分市场需求的形成，而民营企业在满足这些细分需求上较为灵活，因而 中小盘民营企业在新消费领域可能带来值得关注的机会。 朱良表示，就政策影响而言，上市公司盈利对市场表现的影响或将大于经济政策的影响。"反内卷"等措 施有望推动盈利改善。此外，上市公司海外营收占比若持续扩大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-shares market is experiencing a positive trend, with the A500 ETF from Southern Fund gaining significant attention due to its strong inflow of funds and its unique positioning in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunity - The A500 ETF has seen a net inflow of 1.5 billion yuan in just two trading days, with a notable increase of 819 million shares on December 8, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The A500 index focuses on mid-cap leading companies, effectively avoiding the growth slowdown of large-cap stocks while minimizing the high volatility associated with small-cap stocks, thus offering a blend of profitability certainty and growth potential [1][2]. - The index's components are well-positioned to benefit from China's economic transformation, aligning closely with GDP growth rates over the long term [1]. Group 2: Industry Distribution and Policy Support - The A500 index exhibits strong balance by including both stable traditional industries and emerging sectors such as technology innovation and green economy, which helps smooth investment volatility amid changing market styles [2]. - The index is set to benefit from supportive macro and industrial policies aimed at revitalizing the capital market and promoting private sector development, which enhances the profitability and valuation of its constituent stocks [2]. Group 3: ETF as an Investment Tool - The A500 ETF is highlighted as an efficient investment tool for ordinary investors, offering flexibility, transparency, and low costs, allowing for easy access to a diversified basket of stocks [3][4]. - Southern Fund, with over 16 years of experience in the ETF space, manages approximately 399.1 billion yuan in index products, making it a trusted choice for both institutional and individual investors [3][4]. - The fund's advanced investment management system ensures tight index tracking, with a tracking error of only 0.38%, the best in the industry, which enhances investor confidence [4]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term holding strategy, as the valuation advantages and growth potential of the A500 index require time to materialize [6][7]. - The A500 index represents the backbone of China's economy, and the A500 ETF serves as a bridge for investors to access these core assets, making it a preferred choice for capturing mid-cap growth opportunities [6][7].

Core Insights - China's capital market is becoming increasingly attractive to global investors due to its resilience amid economic fluctuations, valuation advantages, and industrial upgrades [1][2] - Foreign institutional investors are particularly interested in sectors aligned with China's economic transformation, such as high-end manufacturing, technology innovation, and consumption [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The 2025 Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference highlighted the growing interest of foreign investors in Chinese assets, with a focus on long-term growth potential and fundamental company performance [1] - International capital flows are being closely monitored, with foreign investors showing a positive attitude towards the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Key investment themes identified include innovation, restructuring, and international expansion, with consumption upgrades being a significant outcome of these trends [2] - The emphasis on hard technology and the promotion of ETFs related to China's technological innovation are seen as ways to enhance interaction between domestic and foreign capital [2] Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategies - Temasek's investment strategy in China aligns with four long-term directions: digitalization, sustainable living, future consumption, and longevity, focusing on sectors like digital technology, renewable energy, and life sciences [2][3] - The belief in the growth potential of these sectors reflects the future development trajectory of the Chinese economy [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant recovery this year, with IPO financing reaching HKD 182.9 billion by the end of September, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Nearly half of the companies applying for listing are from the technology sector, focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and robotics, along with a notable presence of biopharmaceutical companies [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has increased by 32.56% as of October 22, while the Hang Seng Biotech ETF has surged by 80.08% [1] Group 2 - The structure of listed companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is shifting from finance and real estate to technology, aligning with China's economic transformation and regulatory innovations [2] - The most voted sectors for investment value in the next 1-2 years include internet and artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [2] - The technology manufacturing sector is identified as a crucial area for China, encompassing AI hardware, semiconductors, new energy, and robotics [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is set to launch Hang Seng Biotech Index futures, providing diversified and professional risk management tools for investors [3] - Attracting high-quality global companies to list in Hong Kong is essential for enhancing the market's appeal to quality investors and improving the range of investment tools available [3] - There is an expectation for Hong Kong to expand its market connectivity, potentially enhancing its status as an international financial center by linking with other major global financial markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a nearly ten-year high, surpassing 3900 points, and is approaching the 4000-point mark, which historically indicates significant market movements [1][2]. Market Trends - The historical context shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has previously crossed the 4000-point threshold twice, in May 2007 and April 2015, both times leading to substantial market peaks within six months [1]. - Current market conditions differ from past instances, with the ongoing economic transformation in China and global monetary easing contributing to a more optimistic market sentiment [2]. Structural Changes - The current market is characterized by a structural rally led by technology companies, contrasting with previous market behaviors where stocks moved in unison [3]. - The shift from a retail-driven market to one dominated by institutional investors has significantly altered market dynamics, leading to a more research-driven investment approach [3][4]. Policy Implications - Recent policy initiatives indicate a strong governmental commitment to stabilizing the stock market, positioning it as a key component in economic revitalization [4][5]. - The elevation of the capital market's role in national strategy reflects a broader recognition of its importance in managing economic expectations and stimulating growth [5].

Core Insights - The A-share market has undergone significant transformation over the past decade, with substantial growth in market size, trading activity, and investor structure [2][4]. Market Size Expansion - The total market capitalization of A-shares increased from approximately 62.75 trillion yuan in 2015 to 107.19 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth of over 70% and surpassing the one hundred trillion yuan milestone [5][6]. - The number of listed companies rose from 2,808 in 2015 to 5,167 in 2025, an increase of over 84%, with many new listings coming from emerging sectors such as technology, renewable energy, and pharmaceuticals [5][6]. Trading Activity Increase - As of October 9, 2025, the total trading volume reached 307 trillion yuan, exceeding the entire trading volume of 253 trillion yuan in 2015, reflecting a 121% increase [6][8]. - The average daily trading volume in 2025 was 16.6 billion yuan, a 60% increase from 10.4 billion yuan in 2015, indicating heightened market participation [6][7]. Investor Base Growth - The number of A-share investors grew from 99.11 million at the end of 2015 to over 240 million by 2025, representing a growth of over 140% [9][10]. - The investor structure has shifted from a predominance of retail investors to a more balanced mix, with institutional investors gaining a stronger foothold in the market [11][12]. Leverage Level Rationalization - The leverage level in the A-share market has stabilized, with the margin financing balance increasing from 1.17 trillion yuan in 2015 to 2.39 trillion yuan in 2025, while the proportion of margin financing to total market capitalization decreased from 4.27% to 2.49% [12][13]. Sectoral Restructuring - The market has transitioned from being dominated by traditional sectors like finance and energy to a focus on technology and emerging industries. The information technology sector's market capitalization grew from 5.55 trillion yuan in 2015 to 24.04 trillion yuan in 2025, increasing its market share from 9.97% to 19.76% [15][16]. - The financial sector's market share decreased from 22.98% in 2015 to 18.29% in 2025, while the real estate sector's share fell from 4.32% to 1.07% [15][16].

Core Insights - China's economy continues to maintain stable and healthy development, providing certainty and positive energy for global economic growth. Despite some perceptions that investment opportunities are diminishing, China's economic transformation and upgrading present unprecedented opportunities for countries worldwide [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation and Upgrading - China's manufacturing sector remains the largest globally for 15 consecutive years, with 80% of it comprising traditional industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, machinery, light industry, and textiles. The acceleration of high-end, intelligent, and green development will release investment opportunities in these areas [1] - New industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and biomedicine are rapidly emerging, with China leading in several AI models and maintaining the largest industrial robot market for 12 years. The country is fostering the development of future industries and is open to sharing investment opportunities with global partners [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Talent Dividend - China is quickly rising in the global technology innovation landscape, with R&D expenditure exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, approaching the OECD average. The country leads in high-level international journal publications and invention patents [2] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is accelerating, with increasing patent conversion rates and the transformation of cutting-edge technological achievements into new productive forces. China produces over 5 million STEM graduates annually, enhancing the talent dividend, particularly in engineering [2] Group 3: Consumption Expansion and Upgrade - China's per capita GDP exceeds $13,000, with a steadily expanding market size. The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan by 2025, solidifying China's position as the world's second-largest consumer market [3] - Online retail sales have ranked first globally for 12 consecutive years, with significant sales in automobiles and air conditioners. Service consumption is becoming a new growth engine, with the proportion of per capita service consumption expected to reach 46.1% in 2024 [3] Group 4: Infrastructure Development - China's vast territory necessitates significant infrastructure development, particularly in the central and western regions where railway and road density is lower than in the eastern coastal areas. Traditional infrastructure construction and upgrades will yield long-term economic and social benefits [3] - Investment demand remains high for intercity railways and cross-river, cross-sea bridges, which improve transportation logistics and regional economic development. Rapid growth in new infrastructure areas such as computing networks, mobile communications, and smart cities will create vast market opportunities [3] Group 5: Urbanization and Social Welfare - China's urbanization is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving quality and spatial layout, developing urban clusters, and modernizing cities. Urban renewal projects will create significant investment opportunities [4] - The demand for social welfare services, including childcare, education, elderly care, and healthcare, is increasing. By 2025, China aims to provide 4.5 childcare spots per 1,000 children under three, addressing gaps compared to developed countries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a profit of 12.41 million yuan and a net asset value growth rate of 15.75%, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy and potential for future growth [2][3]. Fund Performance - The fund's profit for the first half of 2025 was 12.41 million yuan, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1400 yuan [2]. - As of September 2, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.295 yuan, and its scale reached 65.51 million yuan [2][33]. - The fund's performance over the past three months showed a net value growth rate of 20.23%, ranking 322 out of 607 comparable funds [7]. - Over the past six months, the fund's net value growth rate was 33.61%, ranking 91 out of 607 comparable funds [7]. - The fund's one-year net value growth rate was 65.75%, ranking 141 out of 603 comparable funds [7]. Economic Context - The Chinese economy has demonstrated good resilience due to a series of policies aimed at stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption, leading to a temporary stabilization of overall demand [3]. - The export business, driven by Chinese manufacturing, has performed well, although challenges such as supply surplus and insufficient demand remain [3]. - The A-share market is positioned at a low point, with significant valuation advantages compared to global equity assets, suggesting potential for revaluation of Chinese assets [3]. Investment Opportunities - The fund manager emphasizes investment opportunities in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, post-pandemic recovery consumption, high-end manufacturing, and technology advancements like AI [4]. - The fund's strategy aligns with China's economic transformation and recovery, focusing on sectors with rigid demand due to aging populations and technological innovation [4]. Fund Holdings and Valuation - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 122.71, significantly higher than the industry average of 33.74 [11]. - The fund's weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 2.42, close to the industry average of 2.47 [11]. - The weighted average revenue growth rate for the fund's stock holdings was 0.01%, with a net profit growth rate of 0.38% for the first half of 2025 [16]. Fund Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had 2,111 holders, with a total of 58.64 million shares held [36]. - The fund's turnover rate for the last six months was approximately 168.91%, consistently below the industry average [39]. - The top ten holdings of the fund included companies like Aibo Medical and Kangfang Bio, indicating a focus on healthcare and biotechnology sectors [40].