21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。会议还指出，明 年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存 量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 上述表述与10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称 《建议》）中的表态一脉相承。在"提升宏观经济治理效能"部分，《建议》明确提出，强化逆周期和跨 周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。增强宏观政策取向一致性，强化 政策实施效果评价，健全预期管理机制，优化高质量发展综合绩效考核。 对于"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 ...

【博时市场点评12月8日】沪深两市上涨，创业板指涨2.6% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数上涨，创业板涨2.6%，两市成交放量并重返2万亿以上。海外方面，市场对美联储12 月降息的预期押注上升，或受下任美联储主席候选人、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特近期发表 的鸽派言论支撑。日央行12月加息预期大幅上升，需关注日元套息交易带来的流动性风险。国内方面， 今日中央政治局会议召开，对明年的经济工作做出部署，会议指出明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质 增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大 逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。后续关注中央经济工作会议的召开，市场短期 或维持震荡，配置上建议均衡。 消息面 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经 济治理效能。 简评：会议内容强化了政策托底和经济结构优化信心，对于科技、绿 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.910 | 0.02% T主力成交量 | 98368 | -2961↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.745 | -0.01% TF主力成交量 | 72291 | -7272↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.412 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 37890 | 6997↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.240 | -0.29% TL主力成交量 | 175328 | 11652↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2512价差 | -0.06 | +0.16↑ T03-TL03价差 | -4.33 | 0.31↑ | | | T2603-2512价差 | -0.20 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.16 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2512价差 | 0.02 | -0.02↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5.50 | -0.05↓ | | | TS26 ...

同时，投资于人成为宏观政策的突出特点。投资于人是一项关乎国家长远发展的重大战略部署。从注重 惠民生与促消费相结合，突出以就业带动增收，不断提高社会保障水平，到建立育儿补贴制度、逐步推 行免费学前教育、推进普惠托育服务体系建设，国家投入更多真金白银聚焦人的全面发展。 可以说，今年我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，重要"密码"就在于更加积极有为的宏观政策。从统计数据 可以看出，一系列政策措施促进消费潜力有序释放、产业优化升级、新动能成长壮大。以"两重"建设为 例，8000亿元超长期特别国债支持1459个"硬投资"项目建设，在新型城镇化、粮食安全、社会民生等方 面大显身手。宏观政策组合拳发力显效，为实现全年经济社会发展目标提供了坚实支撑。 "十五五"规划建议提出"强化逆周期和跨周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策"。当前，我国经济运行总 体平稳、稳中有进的同时，也面临着困难与挑战，特别是外部不稳定不确定性因素依然较多，国内需求 仍显不足，不少企业经营面临困难。为此，宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助 力经济发展。 我国政策空间充足、政策工具丰富。宏观政策要用好用足政策空间，提高调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效 性 ...

原标题：积极有为的宏观政策有力有效 扩大有效益的投资、实施提振消费专项行动、保持流动性充裕和金融总量合理增长……今年以来， 我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，有效稳增长、稳就业、稳预期，推动经济持续回升向好。下一步， 宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不会变，在经济运行中保驾护航、赋能添力的作用将更加突出。 "更加积极有为"的宏观政策取向，是加大逆周期调节力度，更好应对经济运行中的不稳定、不确定 因素的战略部署。今年以来，一系列力度大、含金量高、针对性强的政策措施落地实施，有效稳定预 期、激发活力、提振信心。 同时，投资于人成为宏观政策的突出特点。投资于人是一项关乎国家长远发展的重大战略部署。从 注重惠民生与促消费相结合，突出以就业带动增收，不断提高社会保障水平，到建立育儿补贴制度、逐 步推行免费学前教育、推进普惠托育服务体系建设，国家投入更多真金白银聚焦人的全面发展。 可以说，今年我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，重要"密码"就在于更加积极有为的宏观政策。从统计 数据可以看出，一系列政策措施促进消费潜力有序释放、产业优化升级、新动能成长壮大。以"两重"建 设为例，8000亿元超长期特别国债支持1459个"硬投资"项目建 ...

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 5, with a term of 3 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - There is an expectation of a 6-month reverse repurchase operation later in December to address potential liquidity tightening, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2] - The central bank has established a pattern of conducting various liquidity operations, including 3-month and 6-month reverse repos, to ensure a stable liquidity environment, especially towards year-end [1][2] Group 2 - December will see a high level of government bond issuance and the highest volume of bank interbank certificates maturing this year, which may tighten liquidity [2] - The overall maturity pressure in December is manageable, with 3,000 billion yuan of MLF and 4,000 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing [2] - The central bank is expected to maintain a reasonably ample liquidity environment through various operations, focusing on a balanced approach to quantity and price [2]

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity [11][12] - The government adopted a proactive approach with a front-loaded expenditure rhythm, reflecting a clear intention to support the economy [14][16] Group 2: Monetary Policy Review for 2025 - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, maintaining liquidity at a reasonable level with low funding rates [23][28] - The central bank's interest rate adjustments were more cautious, with only one reduction of 10 basis points in 2025 compared to more significant cuts in 2024 [28][32] - Credit issuance was front-loaded, with new loans in the first quarter reaching 9.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 66.3% of the total for the first three quarters [32] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in 2026, focusing on economic growth, structural transformation, and comprehensive reform [61][62] - The deficit rate is anticipated to remain around 4%, with special bonds and new special debt slightly expanding compared to 2025 [61][63] - The expenditure structure will prioritize investments in social welfare and new infrastructure, while also addressing debt resolution [61][70] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement one interest rate cut of approximately 10 basis points to ensure liquidity remains ample [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Structural Reforms - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible and prudent policy approach, with a resumption of operations in October 2025 [42][45] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - Structural reforms will focus on macro tax burdens, central-local relations, and the sustainability of the social security system [3][61]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, with the latest price at 106.34 yuan as of November 27, 2025. Over the past year, it has accumulated a rise of 1.87% [2] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 10.54% and a transaction value of 1.993 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 3.518 billion yuan [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1 trillion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term on November 25, 2025. This marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November [2] Group 2 - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera reached 18.934 billion yuan. However, there was a net outflow of 259 million yuan recently, with a total inflow of 725 million yuan over the past ten trading days [3] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of government bonds with a 30-year maturity listed on the exchange [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's liquidity injection in November remains at a high level of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1 trillion yuan through medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and 5 trillion yuan through reverse repos, indicating ongoing support for market liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - In November, the central bank announced a 10 trillion yuan MLF operation, with 9 trillion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1 trillion yuan [1]. - The total net liquidity injection for November reached 600 billion yuan, consistent with the previous month, marking a sustained high level over four months [1]. - The central bank's liquidity support is primarily driven by three factors: local government debt issuance, completion of new policy financial tools, and an increase in bank interbank certificates of deposit maturing [1]. Group 2: Future Policy Directions - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on optimizing the structure rather than merely increasing the scale of liquidity [3]. - Future monetary policy will emphasize directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation, consumption stimulation, and green initiatives, enhancing policy precision [3]. - There is a prediction that the central bank will continue to use reverse repos and MLF to inject liquidity, but the scale may decrease from the previous high of 600 billion yuan per month as year-end policies are introduced [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that bank stocks are experiencing a resurgence, with the China Bank Index reaching a historical high, driven by positive third-quarter earnings reports from A-share listed banks [1] - Among the 42 banks, 35 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters, with seven banks, including Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank, achieving double-digit growth [1] - 29 banks reported a year-on-year increase in operating income, with Xi'an Bank leading at nearly 40% growth [1] - Asset quality is improving, as 22 out of 42 banks have seen a decrease in the non-performing loan ratio since the beginning of the year [1] - The continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the central bank's emphasis on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships are expected to enhance banks' operational capabilities and their alignment with high-quality economic development [1] Group 2 - The Bank ETF Index closely tracks the China Bank Index and serves as an analytical tool for investors, categorizing the China All Share Index samples into various industry classifications [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Bank Index account for 64.87% of the index, including major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank [2]