10:42 # 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-08-2 980 975 970 965 960 955 950 945 940 2025-07-30 2025-06-18 2025-07-09 2025-08-15 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 977.68 吨黄金 基本面消息，9月1日亚市盘中，现货黄金大幅拉升，再创4月22日以来的高位，与此同时，COMEX黄金期货合约价格也显著上扬，最高逼近3560美元/盎 司。值得注意的是，在金价大涨之际，现货白银也显著破位，最高突破40美元/盎司，创2011年以来最高水平，年内涨幅超过40%。 有分析人士指出，黄金、白银的最新涨势可能归因于避险需求的复苏，周一亚太市场多数下跌，尤其是日本日经225指数在上周五华尔街科技股大跌后遭受 重创。另外，贸易方面重新出现的不确定性加剧了厌恶风险的市场状况。在市场清淡（周一美国市场因假期休市）的情况下，金价正迈向创纪录的高点3500 美元。 针对本轮贵金属的拉升，分析认为，投资者对美联储9月降息的预期不断升温，提供支撑。特朗普对美联储的反复攻 ...

瞿瑞认为，短期来看，国际金价波动性料加大，整体处于高位运行。一方面源于市场对美联储9月降息 预期延续，对金价形成一定支撑。另一方面，金价新高或带来资金止盈离场，对金价走势造成扰动。 瞿瑞亦判断，国际金价在中长期仍处于震荡上行通道，主要源于以下因素驱动：一是政策不确定性及地 缘政治风险使市场避险需求持续存在。特朗普政策的灵活性与变动性，特朗普政府对不同商品的关税仍 不确定以及关税影响还未彻底显现，令全球贸易政策不确定性持续处于高位，同时地缘政治冲突逐渐常 态化，避险情绪将为金价提供长期支撑。二是全球央行黄金配置意愿仍较强。特朗普政府推动的"大而 美"法案，美国财政赤字将持续扩大，同时其政策的变动性加剧美元信用风险，各国央行基于战略安全 与资产配置需求，将强化黄金储备布局。三是市场降息预期持续。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发言转 鸽、近期美国经济、就业数据降温符合降息条件，均强化年内降息的必要性，进而支撑金价上行。 华源证券研报则称，中期来看，"特朗普2.0"主线中的关税和减税交易或在后续趋向平稳，"降息交 易"将为黄金价格上涨提供较强动能，下半年预计美国货币政策变化将接力财政政策为黄金价格提供支 撑。长期来看，"降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown significant recovery, moving away from the traditional "summer lull" due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Factors Supporting Gold Price Recovery - **Macroeconomic Expectations**: There is a renewed market expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [2]. - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Economic and political risks in various global regions continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, attracting capital inflows [2]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Several central banks are increasing their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [2]. Impact of Holidays on Gold Price Trends - **Market Liquidity**: During holidays, market liquidity typically decreases, which can lead to three potential scenarios affecting gold prices: - **Increased Volatility**: Low trading volumes can cause significant price fluctuations in response to large orders [4]. - **Delayed Market Response**: Important economic data or news released during holidays may not be immediately reflected in the market, leading to concentrated reactions when trading resumes [4]. - **Trend Continuation with Slower Pace**: If gold prices are in a strong upward trend before the holiday, the pace may slow down, but the overall trend direction is unlikely to change [4]. Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Fluctuations - **Focus on Long-Term Trends**: The core factors influencing the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices are primarily the monetary policy directions of major economies and changes in real interest rate expectations, while short-term holiday effects mainly influence trading rhythm rather than trend direction [5]. - **Investment Strategies**: - Monitor market sentiment and position adjustments after the holiday [5]. - Keep an eye on key events such as Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, as these will directly impact market expectations regarding Fed policies and gold prices [5]. - Consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with potential short-term volatility following the holiday [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in silver and gold stocks [1][2] - Silver and gold prices are strengthening, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [2][3] - Analysts indicate that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are favoring precious metals, including India's sale of U.S. government bonds and increased gold reserves, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 2 - Specific stock performances include: - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.24% - Western Gold (601069) up 10.00% with a market cap of 22 billion and a year-to-date increase of 111.04% - Zhuhai Group (600961) up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 97.46% - Hunan Silver (002716) up 7.59% with a market cap of 18.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 92.33% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold and Silver Prices - The recent surge in London spot gold and silver prices is driven by multiple factors, primarily centered around safe-haven demand and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with rising geopolitical risks, is enhancing the safe-haven attributes of precious metals [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Future Projections - The COMEX gold has strongly broken through the key resistance level of $3,500 per ounce, with the next target potentially looking towards $3,550 per ounce, while support is noted around $3,450 per ounce [3]. - After reaching a historical high, COMEX silver has further upside potential, with the next key resistance level around $42, although short-term technical pullback risks should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming August non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's policy signals from the mid-month meeting, as these will significantly influence the direction of precious metals [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength with short - term rising, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation - biased - upward trends, driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and increased market risk - aversion [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a strong performance, with short - term rising, medium - term rising, and intraday oscillation - biased - upward trends, due to approaching Fed's September meeting, capital rotation, and the upcoming domestic industry peak season [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Short - term: Rising; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation - biased - upward; Reference view: Short - term strength. The upward movement of gold prices is mainly due to Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, increased market risk - aversion caused by the slowdown of US and Chinese stock markets, and capital rotation. Technically, New York gold has broken through the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter, while London gold is still within the range, and Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to RMB appreciation [1][3] Copper - Short - term: Rising; Medium - term: Rising; Intraday: Oscillation - biased - upward; Reference view: Short - term strength. The increase in copper prices is related to the approaching Fed's September meeting, capital rotation from the high - oscillating equity markets, and the upcoming domestic "Golden September and Silver October" industry peak season which may boost downstream demand [1][5]

本文转自【深圳晚报】； 北京时间周一（9月1日）亚盘时段，现货白银突破并站上40美元/盎司整数关口，刷新了2011年9月21日 以来的新高。 截至9月1日14:06，现货白银上涨1.99%，报40.49美元/盎司。 降息前景提升了贵金属的吸引力，而随着美国总统特朗普不断批评美联储决策者，引发外界对央行独立 性的担忧，避险需求也进一步推升了金银价格。 分析人士指出，此次上涨受到市场对美国央行将在9月下旬的会议上降息的预期推动，而本周五公布的 关键美国就业数据可能进一步显示劳动力市场趋弱，从而强化降息理由。 分析师指出："白银突然活跃起来，因为基本面和技术面同时发出利好信号，此外，白银在40美元的关 键阻力位被突破，触发了动能买盘。" 来源 | 央视财经、中国基金报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures continue to rise, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, reaching a trading level around $3,547 per ounce, with a peak of $3,557.10 per ounce during the day [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The macroeconomic and geopolitical news is favorable for precious metals, with reports indicating that India is actively selling U.S. government bonds while increasing its gold reserves [1] - The market's anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has intensified, contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has further fueled demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3: Investment Caution - Investors are advised to remain cautious during this gold rally, as historical peaks often trigger significant profit-taking, similar to the situation observed in April of this year [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by multiple factors including supply-demand fundamentals, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased safe-haven demand [1][2][3] - The global silver supply has been in a state of shortage for the past five years, with strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, contributing to the increased need for silver [2] - The World Silver Association projects a 2% increase in total silver supply and a 1% decrease in total demand by 2025, leading to a narrowing of the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces [2] Group 2 - Companies in the silver industry are experiencing varied impacts from rising silver prices; upstream companies benefit more, while smelting companies face pressure due to processing fees and raw material costs [4] - Companies without their own silver mines, such as Hengbang Co., are seeing price increases but also face rising raw material costs, relying on processing fees for profitability [4] - Companies with their own mines are in a more favorable position, as rising metal prices positively impact their stock prices and profitability [4]

Market Overview - Last week, spot gold opened at $3368.96/oz, peaked at $3453.63/oz, and closed at $3447.57/oz, with a weekly increase of 2.31% [3] - Spot silver opened at $38.918/oz, reached a high of $39.967/oz, and closed at $39.669/oz, marking a weekly rise of 2.24% [3] - The increase in gold prices was driven by heightened safe-haven demand due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, political instability in France, and cooling expectations for Russia-Ukraine talks [3] - Gold prices rose 4.7% month-on-month, while silver prices increased by 8.3% [3] ETF Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 20.91 tons to a total of 977.68 tons [3] - iShares Silver ETF's silver holdings rose by 21.18 tons to 15,310 tons [5] CFTC Positions - There was a net increase in gold positions while silver saw a net decrease, indicating a strengthening of both investment and speculative demand for gold [10] - The report suggests investors should participate with light positions and be flexible in their trading strategies [10] Futures Market - Gold futures basis remained stable, closing at 5.45 yuan/gram, with a peak of 5.66 yuan/gram [10] - Silver futures basis declined, closing at 48 yuan/kilogram, with a high of 56 yuan/kilogram [12] Domestic and International Price Differences - The domestic and international price difference for gold fluctuated, closing at -0.10 yuan/gram [12] - The silver price difference increased, closing at 399 yuan/kilogram [13] Delivery and Inventory - Both gold and silver showed a bearish trend in deferred delivery, suggesting a focus on potential shifts in market sentiment [13]