二、PPI环比继续上涨，同比降幅略有扩大 PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是国内部分行业需求季节性增加带动其价格上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开 始，煤炭、燃气需求季节性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨4.1%，煤炭加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨0.7%。入冬以 来，防寒保暖产品进入消费旺季，毛织造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨0.2%。二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行 业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行带动国内有色金属矿采选业价格环比上涨2.6%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，其中铜 冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.2%。国际油价下行影响国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降2.4%，精炼石油产品制造价格 下降2.2%。 PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。我国各项宏观政策不断显效，价格呈现积极变化。一 是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。重点行业产能治理持续推进，市场竞争秩序不断优化，煤炭开采和洗选 业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 中国11月PPI同比 -2.2%，前值 -2.1%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.2%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月9日消息，乌克兰11月CPI同比上涨9.3%，预期为上涨9.8%；环比上涨0.4%。 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251207: Macro Upward, Sharp Increase in LME Copper Cancellation Ratio, Shanghai Copper Expected to Remain Strong [1] Core Viewpoint - With the macroeconomic upward trend and a sharp increase in the LME copper cancellation ratio, Shanghai copper is expected to remain strong [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot circulation sources are tight, and the copper spot premium has risen [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first rose and then fell, showing a week - on - week weakening [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.86/ton, still at a low level [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 750,200 tons [17] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [19] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - The overseas market is strong, the copper export window is open, and some smelters are actively preparing for exports [23] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory both continued to decrease week - on - week [25] - LME copper inventory is still increasing but the cancellation ratio has soared, while COMEX inventory continues to increase [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The breakthrough of the market to a record high significantly suppressed the consumption of refined copper rods [28] - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9 [40] - The CPI in the Eurozone rebounded to 2.2% in November [42] - Hassett said that now is a good time for another cautious interest rate cut [44]

Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open at 24:00 on December 8, following the "ten working days" principle. The last adjustment on November 24 saw domestic gasoline and diesel prices decrease by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively [1] CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI and PPI data for November on December 10. Huachuang Securities predicts that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will rebound from 0.2% last month to around 0.7%, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices. The food price index in November is expected to rise by 1.1% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 2.7% in the same month last year, which was the lowest in the past decade [2] Financial Data Release - In addition to CPI and PPI, financial data for November, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is also expected to be released next week. Zhejiang Merchants Securities estimates that new RMB loans will increase by 300 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%. Social financing is expected to increase by 2.2 trillion yuan, down approximately 342 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%. M2 growth is projected at 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is expected to be 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next week. As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13%. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January, a 9% chance of maintaining the rate, and a 27% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4] Stock Unlocking - Next week, 40 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of nearly 40 billion yuan based on Friday's closing prices. Ten companies have lock-up shares valued at over 1 billion yuan each, including Ningbo Ocean, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [5] New Stock Opportunities - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, including one from the Shanghai main board, one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, one from the Shenzhen main board, and two from the Growth Enterprise Market. The specific issuance dates are December 8 for Youxun Co. and Nabichuan, December 9 for Yuanchuang Co., and December 12 for Xihua Technology and Tiansu Measurement [8]

每经AI快讯，12月6日，越南11月CPI同比增长3.58%，预期3.40%，前值3.25%。 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil is set for December 8, with a projected decrease of 60 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel due to a -1.26% change in the average price of crude oil [2] - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and stalled peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have weakened the outlook for Russian oil exports [2] - Despite OPEC+ agreeing to increase production in November, actual output has declined due to some member countries' production halts, leading to a supply shortfall [2] Group 2: CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release November CPI and PPI data on December 10, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth rate increase from 0.2% to around 0.7% [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to fluctuations in food prices, particularly due to adverse weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3] - Predictions indicate that the CPI's tail effect for next year will be approximately 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3] Group 3: Financial Data Release - November financial data, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is expected to be released next week, with new loans projected at 300 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion CNY [4] - Social financing is anticipated to increase by 2.2 trillion CNY, down by approximately 342 billion CNY year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.4% [4] - M2 growth is expected to be 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is projected at 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a meeting next week, with an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [5] - Economic indicators suggest a cooling labor market, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [5] - Projections for 2026 indicate potential economic growth of 2% to 2.5%, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate cut trajectory [6] Group 5: New Stock Issuance - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, raising approximately 4.297 billion CNY, with a total of 184 million shares [7] - Companies involved include Youxun Co., focusing on optical communication chips, and Nabachuan, specializing in thermal management for electric vehicle batteries [7] - Other companies include Yuanchuang, a major player in rubber tracks, and Xihua Technology, which manufactures specialized components for high-end equipment [7]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 11 月，基数及政策前倾影响下，预计社融与 M2 增速回落，固投、地产同比或依然偏低，社零受补贴 类商品增速回落影响或依然偏弱。相对而言，预计出口与生产韧性较强。需要特别提示的是， CPI 或继续 上行，这或将营造良好的物价回升的氛围。 预计 CPI 同比从 0.2% 回升至 0.7% 左右。首先 ，本月 CPI 同比读数大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去 年 11 月食品项环比为 -2.7% ，是过去十年最低；今年 11 月环比预计为 1.1% 。 其次，食品价格的波动 主要源于天气影响下的菜价 ，今年 10 月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或 暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。这一情况并不具备持续性，据国家气候中心预测，今年冬季 我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，天气条件总体上有利于蔬菜生长和运输。 最后，最近两个月食品 价格偏高有利于提升明年 CPI 同比中枢。 今年 10-11 月份食品环比强于季节性，叠加今年二三季度 ...

Group 1 - Economic data, originally a tool for understanding the economy and formulating macro policies, has become a goal in itself, primarily aimed at boosting GDP [1] - The majority of economic statistical indicators, including GDP, were invented post-World War II, rooted in Keynesian macroeconomic theory [1] - Historical economic systems, such as China's self-sufficient agrarian economy, did not generate GDP as it is understood today, since GDP relies on market transactions [2] Group 2 - Recent adjustments to U.S. non-farm payroll data revealed a downward revision of 910,000 jobs, indicating a significant discrepancy in employment statistics [4] - The U.S. GDP grew from $21.1 trillion in 2020 to $29.7 trillion in 2024, a 41% increase, while China's GDP rose from $14.7 trillion to $18.9 trillion, a 29% increase, leading to a decrease in China's global GDP share [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by a cumulative 23% from 2020 to 2024, compared to only 6% in China, necessitating adjustments to GDP comparisons between the two countries [7] Group 3 - Real GDP growth, which excludes price changes, is a more accurate measure of economic performance, revealing that from 2020 to 2024, the U.S. actual GDP was approximately $23.8 trillion while China's was about $18.3 trillion, indicating a 7 percentage point increase in China's GDP share [8][10] - The article suggests that the manipulation of economic data serves to maintain public confidence and uphold national prestige, particularly in the context of U.S. economic statistics post-pandemic [10]