Core Viewpoint - The U.S. and South Korea are accelerating negotiations on a $350 billion investment agreement, shifting focus from currency swap concerns to investment structure design, with a potential finalization during the APEC summit next week [1][2]. Investment Structure - The South Korean government is prioritizing a balanced investment scheme that may include direct investments, loans, and guarantees, with the necessity and scale of currency swaps depending on the final agreement structure [2][3]. - South Korea aims to finalize the agreement during the APEC summit, with the government committed to achieving this goal [2][3]. Tariff Disadvantages - Ongoing negotiations have been slow, with South Korea facing a 25% tariff on automobiles compared to Japan's 15%, putting Korean automakers at a competitive disadvantage [3][4]. - The potential loss of zero-tariff status for South Korean automotive exports to the U.S. raises concerns, as both countries may be subjected to a new 15% tariff framework [3][4]. Feasibility Concerns - The scale of the investment commitments from both the U.S. and Japan raises questions about feasibility, with the $350 billion commitment equating to 6.5% of South Korea's GDP, needing to be completed within three years [5][6]. - The investment model, which allows the U.S. government to control funds without congressional oversight, has sparked concerns about resource misallocation and corruption opportunities [6]. Governance Risks - The investment funds may lead to significant resource misallocation and potential corruption, as political pressures could influence funding decisions towards enterprises aligned with presidential and Republican interests [6]. - The lack of precedent for allowing a president to freely allocate billions in investments raises governance concerns, especially given the political accountability of Japanese and South Korean officials [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 5.6% increase in comparable store sales for Q3 2025, which was at the high end of expectations [5][11] - Operating income increased by 9%, and diluted earnings per share rose by 12% [5] - The updated diluted earnings per share guidance for the full year is now between $2.90 and $3.00, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9% [13][14] - Total revenues for 2025 are expected to be between $17.6 billion and $17.8 billion [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The professional business segment saw a comparable store sales increase of just over 10%, driven by pro-ticket count growth [5][6] - The DIY segment experienced low single-digit comparable store sales growth, primarily due to average ticket benefits, although there was pressure on transaction counts [7][10] - Same-skew inflation was reported at just over 4%, impacting both business segments [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the DIY business faced modest pressure from rising prices, which may have led to some deferral in larger ticket jobs [8][10] - The professional side of the business showed strong performance across failure and maintenance-related categories, indicating resilience in customer demand [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 200 to 210 net new stores by year-end 2025, with a target of 225 to 235 net new stores for 2026 [23][24] - The expansion strategy includes growth in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, with a focus on building teams and infrastructure to support operations [49][50] - The company aims to maintain competitive pricing and service levels while navigating the evolving tariff environment [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding consumer spending due to economic uncertainty but noted that DIY consumers are still willing to invest in vehicle maintenance [10][13] - The company remains optimistic about gaining market share despite the challenges posed by inflation and tariffs [12][13] - Management highlighted the importance of customer service and product availability in maintaining competitive advantage [19][20] Other Important Information - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 51.9%, up 27 basis points from the previous year [16][17] - SG&A per store growth was at the top end of expectations at 4%, driven by strong sales performance and inflationary pressures [21] - Free cash flow for the first nine months of 2025 was $1.2 billion, down from $1.7 billion in the same period in 2024 [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of same-skew inflation - Management indicated that while the majority of cost adjustments are behind them, there may still be some tailwind from same-skew inflation moving into Q4 [35][36] Question: Price elasticity on DIY side - Historical trends suggest that larger ticket jobs may be deferred, but essential repairs are likely to be prioritized by consumers [38][39] Question: Geographic performance differences - No significant material differences were noted in regional performance during Q3, despite varying weather patterns [52][53] Question: Supplier health and risks - The company expressed confidence in its supplier health, noting that First Brands represents only 3% of COGs and that they have multiple sourcing strategies in place [54][56] Question: Conditions for restoring SG&A per store growth - Management acknowledged that broader macroeconomic conditions play a significant role in SG&A growth and emphasized their focus on maintaining high service levels [77][79]

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========= - In September 2025, the median performance of US equity funds was 1.81%, international equity funds was 2.44%, bond funds was 0.93%, and asset allocation funds was 2.25% [1][14][16] - Among US equity funds, large-cap growth funds had the best median return of 4.09%, while small-cap funds had the lowest median return of 0.57% [15] - International equity funds investing in the Greater China region had the best median return of 7.38% in September 2025 [15] - Bond funds investing in US municipal bonds had a median return of 2.34% in September 2025, and global bond funds had a median return of 6.38% year-to-date [17] - Asset allocation funds categorized by stock-bond allocation showed that target-date funds had the highest median return of 2.61% in September 2025, while conservative allocation funds had the lowest median return of 1.58% [17] - The total size of US mutual funds reached $20.2 trillion by the end of 2024, while ETFs reached $10.3 trillion [12] - In September 2025, active management funds had a net inflow of $7.9 billion, while passive funds had a net inflow of $78.5 billion [2][27] - The top 10 asset management firms in the US mutual fund market mostly experienced net outflows in September 2025, with Vanguard and Capital Group having the largest outflows of $19.9 billion and $7.9 billion, respectively [3][36] - The top 10 asset management firms in the US ETF market all had net inflows in September 2025, with iShares and Vanguard having the largest inflows of $49.7 billion and $30.7 billion, respectively [3][36] - In September 2025, the US market saw the launch of 78 new funds, including 71 ETFs and 7 open-end funds [4][48] - The top 10 open-end funds with the highest net inflows in September 2025 included 4 equity funds and 6 bond funds, with Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund having the highest inflow of $5.8 billion [45] - The top 10 ETFs with the highest net inflows in September 2025 included 8 equity funds and 2 commodity funds, with iShares Core S&P 500 ETF having the highest inflow of $18.7 billion [46] =========

Core Viewpoint - UPS is currently facing significant challenges in its end markets and is undergoing structural changes, leading to a 32% decline in stock price, which has increased its dividend yield to 7.7%, presenting a potential investment opportunity ahead of its third-quarter earnings report on October 28 [2]. Financial Performance and Guidance - UPS likely experienced a difficult third quarter, with management not updating its full-year guidance due to uncertainties from tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [3]. - The company has not provided updated guidance since April, citing a volatile macro environment and ongoing trade uncertainties [3]. - CFO Brian Dykes indicated risks of greater variability in small and medium-sized business (SMB) and enterprise volume, with profit margins potentially under more pressure than previously anticipated [4]. Cost and Employee Management - UPS's management noted that the employee attrition rate was lower than expected, leading to higher expenses than planned in the second quarter [5]. - The company is intentionally reducing its delivery volumes for Amazon by 50% from late 2024 to mid-2026, with Amazon deliveries accounting for 11.8% of UPS's revenue in 2024 [6]. - Despite the preference for a higher attrition rate in the context of reduced delivery volumes, the actual attrition rate has not met expectations [6]. Market Challenges - UPS continues to face significant challenges in key end markets, including the reduction of delivery volumes for Amazon and taking over last-mile deliveries previously handled by the Postal Service [7]. - The company is also contending with higher-than-expected personnel costs due to lower employee turnover than predicted [7].

据财经网站Investopedia，预测人士称，由于关税推高了物价，美国9月通胀年率可能升至17个月来的新 高。 《华尔街日报》对经济学家进行的一项调查显示，定于本周五发布的CPI报告可能会显示，12月整 体物价年率上涨3.1%。通胀上升将凸显特朗普关税的影响，自4月份特朗普宣布征收关税以来，通胀年 率几乎每月都在上升。尽管物价上涨，租金涨幅较低可能会阻止整体通胀率过度上涨。核心通胀年率预 计在9月上涨3.1%，与8月持平。总而言之，通胀升幅可能不会大到足以阻止美联储在10月下旬降息。 美联储9月已降息25个基点以支撑低迷的就业市场，现在其更关注就业市场，而不是对抗通胀。 富国 银 行经济学家Sarah House和Nicole Cervi表示："我们预计，由于关税影响的持续传导，商品通胀将保持高 位，而主要住房成本的缓解应有助于缓解服务业通胀。" ...

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部磨盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa has signed a 10-year hydroelectric supply contract with the New York Power Authority and plans to invest approximately $60 million to modernize part of its aluminum smelting facility in Massena, New York [1] Investment Plans - The company will invest about $60 million for modernization efforts at its Massena aluminum smelting plant [1] - The investment is part of a new hydroelectric supply contract with the New York Power Authority [1] Import Tariffs Impact - Alcoa's CEO, William Oplinger, stated that the 50% tariff on imported aluminum has not incentivized the company to restart idle capacity at its Warwick smelting plant in Indiana [1] - Restarting the Warwick facility could cost around $100 million and take one to two years [1] - Oplinger emphasized that tariffs may change over time, indicating that the company is cautious about making significant investments based solely on current tariff conditions [1]

Core Points - President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea amid escalating tariff tensions, with Trump acknowledging that a 157% tariff is not sustainable [1][3] - The U.S. is experiencing record-breaking tariff revenues, projected to exceed $215 billion for fiscal year 2025, with expectations of reaching nearly $300 billion by year-end [3][7] - The administration's strategy includes attracting international investment to strengthen the U.S. dollar and lower interest rates, which could benefit middle-class Americans [9][10] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are viewed as a means of national security and wealth generation for the U.S., with Trump asserting that they have led to significant revenue increases [2][5] - The tariffs have contributed to a reduction in the federal budget deficit, which was 4% lower in fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, with a third of this reduction attributed to tariff revenues [13] - Despite the revenue gains, manufacturing employment has seen a decline of approximately 40,000 jobs, indicating mixed results in job creation [13] International Relations and Strategy - The administration is focusing on strengthening alliances with countries like Australia to counter China's influence, offering favorable trade conditions to isolate China [14][15] - The upcoming Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of tariffs could have significant implications for the administration's trade strategy and national security claims [3][6] Financial Market Reactions - Financial markets have responded positively to the administration's fiscal policies, with benchmark Treasury yields reaching new intrayear lows, benefiting smaller companies and the tech sector [16][18] - Lower interest rates are seen as crucial for supporting growth in various sectors, including technology and housing, which are sensitive to borrowing costs [17][18]

Core Insights - The September CPI data is the first official inflation report since the U.S. government shutdown, significantly impacting the market. Following the release, there was a market rally in precious metals and risk assets, but profit-taking behavior has emerged as new data approaches [3][4] - It is anticipated that the September core CPI will show moderate growth, remaining at 3.1%. The divergence between service and goods inflation suggests that while goods prices are rising due to tariffs and demand, service inflation is declining, providing a buffer [4][5] - The report indicates that the core inflation is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, which implies that the market's pricing of a potential interest rate cut in October is unlikely to be reversed [5][6] Inflation Dynamics - The report predicts that the September CPI will rise above 3%, driven by energy and food inflation. The core CPI growth is expected to remain stable at 3.1%, with pressures from tariffs on goods being countered by a decline in service inflation, particularly in housing [4][5] - Factors driving the increase in goods prices include heightened demand for new vehicles and the impact of tariffs on retail prices, particularly for imported goods [4][8] - Service inflation is expected to ease, particularly in housing, due to high interest rates and seasonal declines in travel-related service prices [4][8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that core inflation may face an upward turning point in Q4, with projections indicating that the year-on-year core CPI will rise to 3.2%, 3.4%, and 3.7% in October, November, and December, respectively [6][8] - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in October, the Federal Reserve's future easing path may be constrained due to accelerating inflation pressures [8][9] - A potential disruption in Q4 inflation could arise from the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which may provide the Federal Reserve with a more lenient decision-making window if tariffs are deemed illegal [9]