宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 11 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周 A 股呈现普涨行情，债市震荡分化走陡 （ 5 月 5 日 -5 月 9 日） 股票方面，五一节后本周 A 股 4 个交易日，呈现普涨行情，其中小盘股走势更强。 全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%、中证1000 上涨 2.2%、中证 2000 上涨 3.6%、微盘 股指数上涨 5.7%，已是连续 4 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 1.6%，恒生科技指数下跌 1.2%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数本周全部收涨，国防军工、通信和电力设 备领涨。周内看，5 月 2 日商务部表示美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信 息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。受此新闻影响，周二（5 月 6 日） 市场高开高走，当天超 4900 只个股上涨。周三（5 月 7 日）早晨外交部公告何立峰 副总理将于 5 月 9 日-12 日访问瑞士，期间与美方举行会谈。当天上午九点国新办召 开新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，发布会上人民 银行潘行长公布了包括降准降息在内的三大类共十项货币政策措施。当天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, leading to a notable divergence in short-term and long-term bond yields in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, introducing a total of ten measures to stabilize growth [1]. - Following the announcement, the 1-year government bond yield decreased by 1.75 basis points to 1.445%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 2.45 basis points to 1.887% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market exhibited a clear divergence, with short-term rates continuing to decline due to improved liquidity from the policy changes, while long-term rates faced upward pressure from profit-taking sentiment [1][2]. - Market analysts noted that the short-term bond prices benefited from the liquidity injection, alleviating previous negative interest rate differentials, while long-term bonds were influenced by a shift in trading logic from "buying expectations" to "selling realities" [1]. Group 3: Historical Context and Expectations - Historical data indicates that after similar policy implementations, short-term bond yields typically decline, while long-term yields may show mixed results depending on macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [2]. - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered to 1.4%, with expectations that secondary market repo rates will gradually align with this figure, potentially easing the yield inversion between bonds and repo rates [2].

Group 1 - In March, the bond market issued a total of 8.74 trillion yuan in various bonds, with government bonds accounting for 1.28 trillion yuan, local government bonds 978.8 billion yuan, and financial bonds 1.02 trillion yuan [1] - The total custody balance of the bond market reached 183.1 trillion yuan by the end of March, with 161.8 trillion yuan in the interbank market and 21.3 trillion yuan in the exchange market [1] - The increase in bond underwriting business may boost the income expectations of brokerage investment banks, while the surge in local government bonds could accelerate the funding pace for infrastructure projects [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China held a meeting to implement the overall statistical system for the financial "Five Major Articles," emphasizing the importance of data governance and quality management [2] - Financial institutions are required to enhance their data governance capabilities, which may lead to industry differentiation, with new energy and technology sectors receiving more precise financing support [2] - This initiative aims to solidify the achievements of financial supply-side reforms and provide structural policy guidance for the capital market, ultimately optimizing the financial support framework for economic transformation [2] Group 3 - On April 29, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3.405 trillion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.50% [3] - The net injection of 120 billion yuan on that day helps maintain reasonable liquidity and stabilizes the funding environment for sectors sensitive to capital, such as infrastructure and consumption [3] - The neutral and slightly loose liquidity in the interbank market is favorable for bond market allocation demand and creates a stable funding environment for the capital market [3] Group 4 - Tianmao Group announced a delay in the release of its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report due to the need for further information, which may not be disclosed by the legal deadline [4] - Following the announcement, Tianmao Group's stock price fell to 3.04 yuan per share, resulting in a total market value decrease to 15 billion yuan [4] - The insurance sector may face a restructuring of valuation systems, with companies relying on short-term financial products potentially under pressure [4] Group 5 - The offshore yuan strengthened against the US dollar, breaking the 7.27 mark, with a peak of 7.2647 during the trading session [5] - The stability of the yuan exchange rate may enhance foreign investment interest in yuan-denominated assets, particularly in consumer blue chips and high-dividend stocks [6] - Increased demand for liquidity management in the interbank market may arise from the active cross-border capital flows [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter of 2025, the unilateral upward trend of treasury bond futures did not continue. After February, the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and treasury bond futures continued to decline. However, the demand for treasury bond futures from public funds increased, and the position - holding intensity increased significantly [3][4]. - By the end of the first quarter, the number of public fund companies participating in treasury bond futures increased to 56, and the number of public products allocating treasury bond futures increased to 154, reaching a record high. The long and short positions increased by a similar amount. The long - position market value of public products doubled to 9.7 billion, and the short - position market value returned to over 10 billion, with the total long - and short - position market value also hitting a record high [3][4]. - By the end of March 2025, the overall market scale increased significantly, with the total position volume reaching 591,482 lots (unilateral calculation), and the quarterly growth rate was as high as 19%. The long - position volume of public funds was 8,819 lots, accounting for 1.5% of the market, a record high, and the short - position volume increased to 8,258 lots, accounting for 1.4% of the market [3][9]. - In terms of varieties, the long positions of TL, T, and TF increased in the first quarter, with T and TF having the largest increases. The long - position demand was relatively dispersed. In the short positions, the market values of TL and T increased, while those of TF and TS decreased. The short - hedging demand was more reflected in the long - term varieties. In terms of position - holding terms, both long and short positions still mainly focused on the current - quarter (June) contracts [3][9]. - By fund type, the number of products using treasury bond futures in each category increased significantly. However, the growth in position - holding scale mainly came from medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and hybrid bond - type secondary funds. The position increase was mainly concentrated in the long - position demand for treasury bond futures. The combined long - position scale of the two types of funds increased by more than 5 billion, while the combined short - position increase was only about 1 billion. The other category funds changed little compared with the end of the previous quarter [3][15]. - In the first quarter, the net - value growth of bond funds slowed down slightly. On average, the net - value increase of bond - type funds in the first quarter was about 0.02%. Most of the public products allocating treasury bond futures recorded positive returns. The average quarterly net - value growth of public funds with large long and short positions in treasury bond futures was 0.35% and 0.39% respectively [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Market Situation - The overall market scale increased significantly in the first quarter of 2025. The total position volume was 591,482 lots (unilateral calculation), with a quarterly growth rate of 19% [3][9]. Public Fund Participation - The number of public fund companies participating in treasury bond futures increased to 56, and the number of public products allocating treasury bond futures increased to 154, a record high [3][4]. - The long - position market value of public products doubled to 9.7 billion, and the short - position market value returned to over 10 billion, with the total long - and short - position market value also hitting a record high [3][4]. Position - Holding Volume and Market Share - The long - position volume of public funds was 8,819 lots, accounting for 1.5% of the market, a record high. The short - position volume increased to 8,258 lots, accounting for 1.4% of the market [3][9]. Variety Analysis - Long - position growth was concentrated in T and TF, and short - position growth was concentrated in TL and T. The long - position demand was relatively dispersed, and the short - hedging demand was more reflected in long - term varieties [3][9]. Fund Type Analysis - Each category of funds saw a significant increase in the number of products using treasury bond futures. The growth in position - holding scale mainly came from medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and hybrid bond - type secondary funds. The long - position scale of these two types of funds increased by more than 5 billion, while the short - position increase was only about 1 billion [3][15]. Performance Analysis - The net - value growth of bond funds slowed down slightly in the first quarter, with an average increase of about 0.02%. Most public products allocating treasury bond futures recorded positive returns, and the average quarterly net - value growth of public funds with large long and short positions in treasury bond futures was 0.35% and 0.39% respectively [3].

如果第一次调整没有跑掉时，你会去找各种看多的理由，期待价格再涨回去，而当上涨后，你就会很害怕上次的回撤再次发现，所以，你又开始主动收集 一些利空的消息，生怕再来一次。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250421— 盛世古董，乱世黄金（-LPR按兵不动-股市表现偏强-资金面边际收敛=中上)】 资金面边际收敛，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展1760亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有430亿元逆回购到期，此外国库现金定存中标1000亿元，合计净投放2330亿元。 税期走款，资金面边际收敛，资金价格小幅上行，DR001上至1.72%附近。 【今日盘面】 250004 1.6450/1.6650/1.6450/1.6630 +1.55 250205 1.7000/1.7155/1.6990/1.7140 +1.40 4月LPR报价维持不变、符合预期，股市偏强，资金价格小升，债市利率震荡上行。 周末宏观消息面平静，早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.645%后震荡。4月LPR报价按兵不动，符合大多数投资者预期。股市表现偏强，股 债跷跷板效应较为明显，叠加税期走款资金面边际收敛，10Y国债利率震荡上行至1.66 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market conditions, highlighting the stability of the LPR and its implications for the stock and bond markets, as well as the overall liquidity situation in the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The April LPR quotation remains unchanged, aligning with market expectations, which has led to a strong performance in the stock market [2][3]. - The bond market shows a noticeable upward trend in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.663% [3][4]. - The central bank conducted a net injection of 233 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a tightening liquidity environment as tax payments are processed [1][2]. Group 2: Market Data and Trends - The weighted average rate for R001 increased by 65 basis points to 1.74%, while R007 remained stable at 1.73% [2]. - The total transaction volume in the repo market reached approximately 62.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 2.08 billion yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - The stock market is experiencing a "see-saw" effect with the bond market, as the liquidity tightening is impacting bond yields while supporting stock prices [3][4].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Due to the escalation of tariff games and heightened expectations of monetary easing, as well as the influence of risk aversion, the bond market has risen significantly. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, and the Treasury bond futures market may be strong. However, as bond yields approach the previous low of the year and the downward trend of capital interest rates has stalled, it may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies, which may bring fluctuations to the bond market [1][6][13] Summary by Directory 1. Tariff Game Escalation, Rising Expectations of Monetary Easing - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, with cumulative tariffs potentially exceeding 60%. China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports in response. The tariff game and trade friction may enter a deeper stage [1] - In the previous round of trade frictions in 2018, China's exports to the US declined rapidly. This time, with higher tariff increases, short - term net exports are likely to fall. In Q1 2025, the contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP reached 45.8%. Under the pressure of external demand, the market's expectation of looser monetary policy has increased. Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts may be relatively mature, while interest rate cuts still need fundamental signals [2] 2. Risk Aversion Drives the Stock - Bond Seesaw to Favor the Bond Market - The current trade game has entered a deeper stage, and there is great uncertainty about the actual implementation of tariffs, negotiation conditions, and time, which may suppress risk appetite in the short term. The stock market declined significantly today, which is favorable for the bond market from the perspective of the stock - bond seesaw. In the medium term, domestic policies are sufficient, and the domestic economy has resilience, but the short - term decline in global risk appetite will continue to support the bond market [6] 3. Capital Interest Rates Have Not Declined Further, Need to Pay Attention to the Impact of Subsequent Growth - Stabilizing Policies on the Bond Market Rhythm - Since early April, capital interest rates and certificate of deposit rates have declined, which has boosted the bond market. However, the decline of capital interest rates has stalled. On April 7, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan in the open market, and the 7 - day capital interest rate of depository institutions was around 1.75%, and the non - bank capital interest rate was around 1.8%, not lower than before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [7] - As of April 7, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has dropped to around 1.64%, only 4BP away from the January low. Currently, the decline in bond yields is mainly due to risk aversion and easing expectations. Considering the short - term pressure of RMB depreciation, it is uncertain whether capital interest rates can decline further. As bond yields approach the previous low, a 35 - 40BP interest rate cut is gradually being priced in, but the policy rhythm is still uncertain. Fiscal policies are likely to be strengthened in Q2, and subsequent capital interest rate trends and growth - stabilizing policies will determine the bond market rhythm [8] 4. Outlook for Treasury Bond Futures - Affected by expectations of monetary easing, risk aversion, and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed up today. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, but the lack of further decline in capital interest rates may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and bank - to - bank capital. Subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies may bring fluctuations to the bond market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions in the short term and stop profits in a timely manner if capital interest rates rise marginally [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Chuangjin Hexin Xinxiang fund, which is on the verge of liquidation despite having positive annual returns since its inception, highlighting the impact of fund manager reputation and market conditions on fund performance [2][4][5]. Fund Performance - The Chuangjin Hexin Xinxiang fund has consistently achieved positive returns since its establishment on February 4, 2021, with annual returns of 2.71% in 2022 (31st out of 1008 funds), 3.66% in 2023 (65th out of 1184 funds), and 5.70% in 2024 (594th out of 1319 funds) [4]. - As of March 21, 2025, the fund's latest net value is 1.2052 yuan, with a year-to-date growth rate of 1.51%, ranking 358th out of 1378 funds [4]. Fund Management - The fund is managed by two fund managers, Huang Tao and Liu Runzhe, who have been in charge since the fund's inception. Huang Tao is responsible for equity investments, while Liu Runzhe handles fixed income [5][6]. - Huang Tao has nearly 5 years of experience managing 5 products with a total asset scale of approximately 825 million yuan, while Liu Runzhe has about 2.5 years of experience managing 2 products with a total asset scale of around 136 million yuan [6][7]. Market Conditions - The fund's performance is contrasted with the strong performance of equity funds benefiting from the technology stock rally, indicating a "stock-bond seesaw effect" where fixed income and mixed funds are struggling [2][4]. - The fund's recent quarterly report shows a balanced allocation in both equity and bond holdings, with significant positions in stocks like BYD and Zijin Mining, which have seen over 15% gains this year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is attributed to three main factors: excessive expectations for monetary easing, insufficient liquidity post-Spring Festival, and a "stock-bond seesaw" effect leading to capital outflow from bonds to stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The market's prior strong expectations for interest rate cuts led to an overextension in bond prices, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 1.95% to a low of 1.5958%, a decrease of 35 basis points [1]. - Post-Spring Festival, liquidity did not loosen as anticipated, with the central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and managing long-term interest rate risks, resulting in reduced capital outflow and increased pressure on the bond market [2]. - The rise in equity markets, particularly in technology stocks, has increased investor risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from the bond market to the stock market, creating a negative correlation between the Hang Seng Technology Index and 30-year government bond futures [2]. Group 2: Current Bond Market Status - The current yield of 1.9% on the 10-year government bond reflects a reasonable expectation of a 10 basis point rate cut for the year, with the MLF policy rate at 2.0% still serving as a significant anchor for the bond market [4]. - The yield has corrected significantly from previous overextensions, returning to levels seen before the central economic work conference, indicating that the adjustment has largely addressed prior excesses [4]. - The adjustment in the 10-year government bond yield has approached the maximum correction seen in previous cycles, with a recovery of 30 basis points from its low, suggesting limited room for further declines [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic logic of transitioning between old and new growth drivers and supply-demand imbalances remains, with uncertainties surrounding traditional economic recovery and external factors like tariffs and social financing data [8]. - From an asset allocation perspective, bonds provide stable cash flow over the long term, making them a valuable asset class for investors, particularly in the context of risk-averse strategies [8].

债基"迷你基"频现 3月14日，摩根基金公告，截至2025年3月12日，摩根瑞享纯债债券型证券投资基金连续30个工作日基金资产净 值低于5000万元，可能触发基金合同终止情形。 同日，尚正基金公告，尚正正达债券型证券投资基金于3月12日发生大额赎回。为确保本基金份额持有人利益 不因份额净值的小数点保留精度受到不利影响，经本基金管理人与基金托管人恒丰银行股份有限公司协商一 致，决定自3月12日起提高本基金的份额净值精度至小数点后八位，小数点后第九位四舍五入。 此外，近日还有淳厚稳鑫、淳厚稳鑫等多只债基公告基金规模陷入"迷你基"困境，亦有鹏华丰饶等产品公告提 升基金净值。 近日，多只债基披露连续多日净值低于5000万元，且也有产品因大额赎回导致需提升基金净值，此类现象 反映的是股债"跷跷板"行情下债基面临持续赎回的压力，仅在今年1月份债基就遭遇净赎回近3000亿元。 展望后市，公募对债基的乐观与谨慎的态度兼而有之，有基金公司认为当前债市收益风险或并不对等，天平的 砝码可能更多地向风险端倾斜；也有公司认为，中长期而言，基本面修复仍需时间，实际利率下行趋势下，债 券市场配置价值仍在。 在短期达到高位以及近期权益市场大 ...