价值投资

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创新药是捕捉阶段价值爆发的概率游戏
雪球· 2025-06-05 07:45
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 超级泥头车 来源:雪球 创新药行业的投资本质是 " 高风险 、 高回报 " 的科技博弈 , 其价值实现高度集中于 " 潜在重 磅药物出现→专利期内商业化成功 " 这一窗口期 。 这一特性使其与传统的 " 买入并长期持有 " 价值投资模式存在差异 , 但通过精准把握投资节点 、 管理风险 , 仍可构建符合价值投资框架 的策略 。 一 、 创新药投资是 " 阶段性价值投资 " 与 " 概率游戏 " 的结合 行业特殊性导致的估值悖论 高研发风险与零和博弈 : 礼来CEO指出行业整体研发回报率接近零 ( 剔除GLP-1药物后PE仅 12倍 ) , 源于90%临床阶段药物失败率 。 企业价值高度依赖单款重磅药物 ( 如修美乐曾占 艾伯维收入的60% ) , 但专利悬崖后若无接替产品 , 估值将崩塌 ( 如辉瑞立普妥专利到期 后市值腰斩 ) 。 平台型公司的 " 伪护城河 " : 即使强如恒瑞医药 , 其管线成功率也受临床转化效率制约 。 2022-2024年ADC/双抗交易爆发 ( 占中国License-out交易的50%以上 ...
中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心副主任张鹏:中长期资金正成为连接金融与实体经济的关键纽带
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-06-05 04:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of long-term capital entering the market to enhance market stability and support economic transformation and upgrading [1][7] - Various policies have been introduced to promote the entry of long-term capital, including insurance, social security, pension funds, and public funds, forming a "1+N" policy system [1][2] - Long-term capital is seen as a "stabilizer" for the capital market, crucial for its healthy development and the long-term growth of the economy [1][4] Group 2 - Institutions like social security funds and insurance capital are identified as key long-term investors that align with national strategic directions and economic transformation [2][4] - The implementation plan encourages commercial insurance funds, national social security funds, and public funds to increase their market participation [2][5] - The characteristics of long-term capital, such as large scale and stability, are essential for supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [7][8] Group 3 - Long-term capital can improve resource allocation efficiency by focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and long-term returns, thus promoting the development of new productive forces [7][8] - The entry of long-term capital is expected to stabilize market expectations and reduce volatility, enhancing market resilience and confidence [8][9] - The growth of institutional investors in the A-share market is noted, with their proportion expected to reach 53.75% by 2024, indicating a shift towards more stable investment behaviors [9][10] Group 4 - The article highlights the need for financial institutions to balance short-term performance assessments with long-term investment goals, suggesting a diversified performance evaluation mechanism [5][6] - Recommendations include enhancing liquidity management, establishing diversified investment strategies, and improving the ability to attract high-net-worth clients [6][7] - The importance of institutional investors in reducing speculative behavior and stabilizing the market is emphasized, along with the need for regulatory frameworks to support their governance roles [9][10]
广发基金王明旭:面对市场逆风,有时你必须强迫自己“与众不同”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 00:54
王明旭的产品业绩和他的语调一样,单个年份"不显山露水",但长期却排在同类靠前位置。 观察他的在管基金可以发现一个有趣的现象:他管理时间最长的广发内需增长A,也是在管产品中任职回报最 高的,累计超过136%,年化回报13.84%(截至5月30日,数据来源:Wind);管理时间第二长的广发价值优 势,任职年化回报率次之;管理时间第三长的广发稳健优选再次之。 过去五年里,我们对话了数百名基金经理,广发基金王明旭无疑是极具特点且与众不同的。 第一次采访王明旭,是在2020年6月。个子高高瘦瘦的他,讲话语调很平和,措词准确而不夸大,态度坦诚而 不掩饰。那次访谈,让我们印象最深的是,他说做投资,既要"见自己",也要"见众生"。 时隔近五年,再次对话王明旭。当我们抛出"过去5年个人能力圈有多大拓展"的问题时,他也坦诚回答:"很多 时候,并没有觉得自己的能力圈在拓展。投资有共性,行业基本面研究也具有共性,有时候随着时间而增长 的是耐心和坚持。" 最近的这次采访,我们能切身感受到他的变化:面对日益复杂多变的市场,他对投资的本质规律有了更深入 的体会;面对净值落后,尤其是站在市场的对立面时,他也有着更深刻的自省和更强大的定力。 ...
机构投资者勇担“积极股东”重任
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-06-04 16:46
近日,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发的《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》提出,发挥资 本市场对完善公司治理的推动作用。支持上市公司引入持股比例5%以上的机构投资者作为积极股东。 在答记者问时,中国证监会有关负责同志表示,鼓励机构投资者积极行使股东权利。 最后,有利于增强上市公司投资价值,提升市场信心。机构投资者主动参与上市公司治理,传递出看好 公司发展前景的信号,叠加积极股东长期持股行为利于公司股价稳定,有利于上市公司吸引更多中长期 资金流入。 监管部门鼓励机构投资者当好积极股东,不仅在于引导机构投资者在做好投资主业的基础上,进一步为 提高上市公司质量作出贡献,也希望以此推动形成机构投资者在上市公司长期价值提升中获取持续回报 的共赢局面。 当然,当好上市公司积极股东并非易事,即便是专业的机构投资者也需要付出不小的代价。但无论如 何,更多机构投资者当好积极股东,有利于增强公司治理水平和经营质量、保护中小投资者权益、提升 上市公司投资价值,而这一良好局面的形成,值得市场各方不懈努力。 (文章来源:证券日报) 当前,我国上市公司类型众多、股权结构多样,情况各异。部分上市公司存在"一股独大"现象,股权高 度集中 ...
Is The ODP Corporation (ODP) a Great Value Stock Right Now?
ZACKS· 2025-06-04 14:46
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use fundamental analysis and ...
险资最新动向:持续进军商业地产,扎堆成立私募基金
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-06-04 11:32
Group 1 - Sunshine Life, along with partners, has established a joint venture to acquire 100% equity in 48 Wanda Plaza projects across major cities in China, with the transaction receiving unconditional approval [1] - This acquisition reflects a trend where insurance companies are increasingly investing in commercial real estate, with Sunshine Life having previously acquired at least six Wanda Plaza projects [1][3] - Insurance companies are becoming a significant force in China's commercial real estate market, with direct investments reaching $9.3 billion from 2022 to 2024, ranking first in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2 - The enthusiasm for commercial real estate investments by insurance funds is driven by the stability and attractive returns of high-quality projects, especially in the current low-interest-rate environment [2][3] - In 2025 Q1, insurance funds have made substantial investments in various commercial real estate sectors, including long-term rentals and retail properties, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies [3][4] Group 3 - The decline in bond yields has pressured insurance funds to diversify their investments, leading to increased interest in real estate and alternative assets [4] - Insurance funds are exploring various investment channels in commercial real estate, including public REITs, private equity funds, and asset securitization products [4] Group 4 - Insurance companies have significantly increased their stock market investments, with a net purchase of nearly $39 billion in Q1 2025, marking the highest quarterly increase in recent years [5] - The focus on high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, has been a strategic move by insurance companies in response to the declining interest rates [6] Group 5 - The expansion of long-term investment reform trials for insurance funds has accelerated, with new participants and increased funding amounts, indicating a growing trend towards private fund establishment [7][8] - Recent initiatives have led to the establishment of multiple private funds by major insurance companies, emphasizing long-term and value investment strategies [9][10]
侃股:高科技与高股息成A股两大驱动力
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-06-04 10:14
Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing new characteristics driven by high dividend assets and high-tech assets, leading to a slow bull market as a new normal [1][2] - High dividend strategies are becoming a significant driving force in the A-share market, attracting long-term investors due to stable cash flow and relatively low valuations [1][2] - High-tech companies are opening up vast imaginative spaces in the A-share market with their innovative capabilities and growth potential, becoming new engines for global economic growth [1][2] High Dividend Assets - High dividend companies are appealing to investors seeking stable returns, indicating strong profitability and good cash flow [1][2] - The increasing recognition of value investment is expected to enhance overall market valuations as more funds flow into high dividend sectors [1][2] - The stability provided by high dividend stocks supports market sentiment and lays a solid foundation for long-term market health [1][2] High-Tech Companies - High-tech companies are continuously launching innovative products and services, meeting the demand for high-quality and high-performance offerings [2] - The rise of high-tech companies has shifted investment logic, with investors focusing more on innovation capabilities and long-term growth prospects [2] - This shift in investment philosophy provides high-tech companies with more financing opportunities and development space, further energizing the A-share market [2] Interaction Between High Dividend and High-Tech - High dividend and high-tech sectors are not isolated but exhibit a spiral integration, where stable earnings from high dividend companies enhance market confidence [2] - The stability from high dividend stocks creates a favorable environment for high-risk, high-reward investments in high-tech fields [2] - The rapid development of high-tech companies brings new growth points and investment opportunities, attracting more capital into the A-share market, which in turn boosts high dividend stock valuations [2] Future Outlook - Future market hotspots are likely to emerge from the interplay between high-tech and high dividend sectors [3] - Investors are advised to balance their asset allocation between high-growth high-tech companies and stable high dividend stocks to achieve steady asset appreciation in the slow bull market [3]
精彩抢先看| 价值与投资——向智向新 与资本市场共成长
第一财经· 2025-06-04 08:50
首期 节目 聚焦央企自主创新与产业升级,邀请一批资本市场改革中的排头兵,分享与资本市场同频 发展的故事 。 东方电气集团董事会秘书、总审计师冯勇,上海石化董事、副总经理黄翔宇,华润双 鹤董事会秘书、副总裁刘驹 将介绍 各自企业的生动实践案例。同时,国泰海通研究所副所长邓勇、 中证指数公司市场服务部副总经理胡威也将作为特邀嘉宾,与上市公司嘉宾进行互动交流 。 为更好服务于中国资本市场深化改革,强化 "投融两端同频共振", 上海证券交易所和第一财经联合 发起的 《价值与投资》栏目将 在 2025年的主题策划中, 坚持践行 "三投资"(即理性投资、价值 投资、长期投资)理念引领,强化央国企、科创板企业等上市公司的示范效应,深化买方机构与指数 公司的专业赋能,通过访谈对话、线下沙龙等形式,搭建监管机构、上市公司、研究机构、投资机构 的交流平台,为上市公司搭建精准传递投资价值的专业平台,更为投资者提供"听得懂、信得过"的 投资逻辑。 此次活动实况记录将于 2025年6月5日15:00在第一财经官网/APP同步上线,敬请期待。 直播链接 : https://yicai.smgbb.cn/live/ 102643181 . ...
“不追风”的袁航,如何用十六年时间破解基民痛点?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 08:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in the capital market from 2022 to 2024, highlighting the emotional rollercoaster of investing and the need for a stable investment philosophy, exemplified by fund manager Yuan Hang's approach with the new floating management fee product, Penghua Win-Win Future [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Pain Points - Pain Point 1: Investors often chase hot themes but fail to outperform the market, leading to disappointment when the market corrects [2]. - Pain Point 2: Frequent management changes in funds undermine the promise of "long-termism," with many investors experiencing shifts in investment style after a manager departs [5]. - Pain Point 3: Investors worry about high portfolio volatility and the risk of managers chasing trends, which contradicts their initial investment goals [8]. Group 2: Yuan Hang's Investment Philosophy - Yuan Hang is characterized as a steady and disciplined fund manager who focuses on high-quality companies with economic moats, maintaining a long holding period and low turnover rate [3][5]. - His investment style is balanced between value and growth, primarily investing in large-cap growth stocks, and he has achieved a cumulative net value growth rate of 218.30% from 2015 to 2024 in the Penghua Advanced Manufacturing Fund [3][4]. - Yuan Hang emphasizes the power of compounding and the importance of long-term holding to minimize transaction costs and maximize returns, adhering to a philosophy of not engaging in investments that are not well understood [7]. Group 3: Innovative Product Design - The new floating management fee product, Penghua Win-Win Future, aligns the interests of fund managers with those of investors by adjusting management fees based on performance relative to a set benchmark [7][10]. - This product design encourages a focus on absolute returns and risk control, reducing the likelihood of chasing trends and ensuring that management fees are tied to actual investor returns [9][10]. - Yuan Hang's approach, reinforced by this innovative fee structure, aims to create a transparent and mutually beneficial long-term partnership between fund managers and investors [11].
精彩抢先看|秒懂金融·资管行业践行“三投资”理念优秀实践系列访谈之兴证全球基金
第一财经· 2025-06-04 08:37
为贯彻中央金融工作会议精神和新 " 国九条 " 部署要求,大力推动中长期资金入市,树立理性投 资、价值投资、长期投资的理念, 2024 年,由中共上海市委金融委员会办公室和上海证券交易所 作为指导单位,上海资产管理协会组织会员单位中的资产管理机构,开展了首届资产管理行业践行 " 三投资 " 理念优秀实践展示活动。 为倡导 " 三投资 " 理念,帮助广大投资者加深对资管行业和管理人的理解,上交所、上海资产管理 协会和第一财经组织首届优秀实践资管机构接受访谈,共同打造了《秒懂金融 · 资管行业践行 " 三 投资 " 理念优秀实践系列访谈》专题节目,来自公募基金、银行理财、保险资管、信托公司、券商 资管等资管领域优秀实践展示机构的相关人士将分享 " 三投资 " 理念、实践经验以及所思所想。 "三投资"理念如何助力基金行业突破现状?如何把"三投资"理念贯穿到日常投资过程中,实现客户 利益优先?如何从产品、服务、品牌等多个维度发力,为投资者带来多样化的产品? 本期节目邀请到 兴证全球兴益债券、兴全可转债混合、兴全有机增长混合基金基金经理虞淼,兴证 全球基金投顾组合主理人高鹏翔,兴证全球基金风险管理部总监助理郑超胜。 节 ...