Group 1: Currency Trends and Impacts - The potential for the USD/CNY exchange rate to fall within the 7.1 to 7.15 range may lead exporters to convert more USD deposits back to RMB, with estimates suggesting that up to $100 billion of the $700 billion held by exporters could be exchanged [1][16] - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has been notable, with the central parity rate reaching 7.1523 on July 3, indicating a significant upward trend [1][13] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing structural weakness of the USD, influenced by potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European fiscal stimulus measures, is contributing to the RMB's strength [1][8] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, while Vietnam has proposed zero tariffs on U.S. products, indicating a complex trade relationship that could impact both economies [3] - The EU and U.S. negotiations are tense, with no substantial progress on the proposed 20% "reciprocal" tariffs, and the automotive sector remains a core point of contention [4] - Canada and the U.S. are working towards a trade agreement, with key issues including steel tariffs and automotive duties still unresolved [4][5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, reaching new highs despite ongoing trade uncertainties, attributed to the belief that extreme government actions are limited by economic fundamentals [7] - The global supply chain's stability is emphasized, with concerns that disruptions could lead to inflation and economic pressures, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations [7] - The Euro has strengthened significantly against the USD, with a nearly 10% appreciation noted, reflecting broader market trends and currency dynamics [8][10]

Group 1 - Gold prices have rebounded this week, recovering from last week's decline, with spot gold prices in London ending above $3300 per ounce and domestic AU9999 rising by 0.52% to over 774 yuan per gram [2][3] - The overall market is in a fluctuating upward trend, with AU9999 showing a maximum increase of over 30% in the first half of the year due to heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and tariff issues [5][6] - Recent adjustments in gold prices are attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a lack of new driving forces for price increases [6] Group 2 - Key factors to watch include the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the U.S., which, if passed, could create a long-term support for gold prices due to an estimated $2.8 trillion fiscal deficit [6] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is crucial, as disappointing figures could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [6] - Ongoing tariff negotiations, particularly with major trading partners, may continue to create uncertainty, potentially increasing demand for gold and driving prices higher [7][8] Group 3 - Despite a reduction in safe-haven demand due to improved geopolitical conditions, expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the potential passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may lead to a weaker dollar and U.S. bonds, supporting gold prices in the long term [8] - The international monetary order may continue to be reshaped, with the long-term bullish trend for gold prices still in play [8]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 782.24 CNY, with a slight increase of 0.28% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today is 782.24 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 776.22 CNY per gram, showing volatility in the market [1] Group 2 - The ongoing trade negotiations among major global economies are intensifying as the July 9 deadline approaches, with the U.S. employing a "salami-slicing" strategy to exert differentiated pressure on various countries [3] - The European Union has proposed a countermeasure of 21 billion euros, including a 50% punitive tariff on iconic U.S. products like bourbon whiskey and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, alongside a potential 120% tariff on agricultural products [3] - The U.K. is facing a significant threat of a 25% increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, which could raise costs in the automotive manufacturing sector by 18 percentage points [3] - Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax proposal in exchange for a delay in semiconductor tariffs, indicating a potential shift in trade negotiations [3] - Japan and South Korea are also engaged in complex negotiations regarding automotive tariffs and defense spending, reflecting the multifaceted nature of current trade discussions [4] Group 3 - The domestic gold market is showing an upward trend, with prices reaching around 783 CNY, despite a slight pullback [5] - Strong support for gold prices is noted around 775 CNY, with expectations for a potential rise towards 795 CNY in the near future [5]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月3日） 其它： 3. 韩国总统李在明：无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各 自的具体诉求。 美元： 5. 特朗普称鲍威尔应立即辞职，并援引美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）署长有关国会应调查鲍威尔的报 道。 6. 路透调查：52位策略师中有42位表示，到7月底美元仓位预计将保持稳定，或净空头将增加。 主要非美货币： 1. 路透调查：预计欧元兑美元六个月后为1.18，一年后为1.20（6月调查时分别为1.15和1.18）。 6. 日本央行审议委员高田创：如果能够确认企业的积极行为得以持续，日本央行应继续进一步调整货币 宽松程度。 4. 路透调查：11位经济学家中有10位预计以色列央行将在周一维持基准利率在4.5%不变，其中一位预 期将降息25个基点至4.25%。 欧元/美元 1. ADP就业人数两年多来首次"转负"，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。 2. 贝森特：美联储可能在9月或更早降息。 3. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 4. 美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）呼吁国会调查美联储主席鲍威尔。 2. 英国首相斯塔默：里 ...

Core Viewpoint - BYD plans to build a new factory in Mexico to employ 10,000 people, but the project faces significant challenges due to political pressures and trade negotiations between Mexico and the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Factory Plans and Challenges - BYD's new factory in Mexico was initially intended to be a major production base for the company, but the Mexican government has rejected the proposal due to pressure from the U.S. government [1][2] - The construction costs of the new factory are expected to be similar to those of BYD's recently launched factory in Brazil [1] - The Mexican government is cautious about appearing to welcome Chinese companies, as it could negatively impact ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [2] Group 2: Sales Performance in Mexico - BYD's sales in Mexico have surged, with approximately 40,000 units sold in 2024, marking a nearly 100-fold increase from the previous year [3] - The company is gaining market share from major automotive manufacturers from Japan, the U.S., and Europe amid rising new car prices in Mexico [3] - BYD aims to double its sales in Mexico to around 80,000 units by 2025, further expanding its presence in the Central and South American markets [3]

韩国总统李在明：和美国的谈判"非常困难" 无法确定能否在7月8日前完成谈判 智通财经7月3日电，据新华社，韩国总统李在明3日表示，和美国的关税谈判"非常困难"，无法确定能 否在7月8日前完成谈判。美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同多国谈判的最后期限即将到来。3日上午，李 在明在就职一个月之际在青瓦台举行记者招待会。他说，与美国的谈判看起来非常困难，双方都不是十 分确定"想要什么"。李在明同时表示，将尽最大努力在7月8日前与美国达成协议，并尽最大努力在谈判 中取得以韩国国家利益为中心、务实共赢的结果。 ...

韩国总统李在明：与美国的关税谈判看起来非常艰难。 ...

韩国总统李在明：无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各自 的具体诉求。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the low-radiation glass sector leading the gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3456.15 points, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10431.03 points, up 0.18%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2130.74 points, up 0.33% [1] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro from July 5 to 8 and will visit Egypt from July 9 to 10 [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability as a primary regulatory task, aiming to create a better environment for high-quality capital market development [2] - A new policy in Guangzhou will initiate "commercial to public loans" when the personal housing loan rate is below 75%, with measures to control risks as the loan rate approaches 90% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, completing the annual allocation of 800 billion yuan [2] Industry Developments - The Shanghai superconducting material and headquarters base project, with an investment of 2.5 billion yuan, has officially commenced construction, marking the largest project in the superconducting field globally [3] - Luxshare Precision announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Hainan Highway announced plans to acquire a 51% stake in Jiaokong Petrochemical, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6] - Tianqi Materials has filed a lawsuit against Yongtai Technology for commercial secret infringement, with expected economic losses of 887 million yuan [7] Company Performance - Zongshen Power expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 70% to 100% for the first half of the year; Jihong Co. anticipates a 55% to 65% increase; and Menohua expects a 143% to 175% rise in net profit for the same period [7] International Market Insights - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and the Nasdaq up 0.94%, both reaching new closing highs, while the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.02% [7] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrary to expectations of an increase of 98,000 jobs [8] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.1% to $67.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 3% to $69.11 per barrel [9]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 ADP 就业不及预期，美越或将达成贸易 协议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-03 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） ADP 就业不及预期 最新的 ADP 就业远不及预期，但是市场对此反应较为平淡，美 元指数短期反弹。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 合 今年 8000 亿"两重"项目清单全部下达完毕 晨 报 "反内卷"和海洋经济板块出现明显上涨，而军工股则有所回 落。股指成交缩量窄幅震荡。对于"反内卷"需要注意其更多 指向中下游行业以及部分新兴行业而非简单地上游行业。 黑色金属（动力煤） 7 月 2 日北港市场动力煤报价暂稳 高温持续下，电厂日耗维持季节性高位，短期煤价有所企稳。7 月初，前期安监环保影响陆续环节。内蒙产区已经陆续放开。 整体煤价预计在夏季维持稳定。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：6 月份棕榈油进口量增加 61%至 95.3 万吨 印度 6 月棕榈油进口大幅增长，参议院禁止北美以外燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。 特朗普称美越达成贸易协议 小非农意外爆冷，但三大股指表现维持强势，市场继续等待周 四晚公布的非农数据。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 有色金 ...