防御性资产

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二季度权益类基金加仓科技成长赛道 防御性资产成“压舱石”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-23 17:16
Group 1: Core Insights - The second quarter report of public funds shows a strong focus on technology growth sectors and an upgrade in defensive asset allocation [1][4] - The total market value of equity fund holdings reached 2.621 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.55% increase from the previous quarter, indicating active structural allocation amidst market volatility [1] Group 2: Technology Sector Focus - Equity funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology growth sectors, particularly in the AI industry chain, with TCL Technology entering the top ten holdings with a 12.2% increase in shares [2] - The top ten heavy stocks include major companies such as Zijin Mining, Oriental Fortune, and TCL Technology, highlighting a concentrated investment in technology and communication equipment [2] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Allocation - There is a notable increase in equity fund allocations to Hong Kong stocks, with companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Meitu receiving substantial increases in shares [2][3] - Fund managers are optimistic about the growth potential in Hong Kong's innovative drug, internet, and consumer sectors, reflecting confidence in market valuations [3] Group 4: Defensive Asset Allocation - Equity fund managers have enhanced their allocation to the banking sector, with major banks like Industrial Bank and Agricultural Bank among the top holdings, totaling 54.86 billion shares [4] - The shift towards defensive assets is characterized by a strategy focusing on "low valuation + high dividend," indicating a transition from mere valuation recovery to improved asset quality [4]
防御性资产受青睐,港股成全球资本新“避风港”
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-07-03 06:41
Group 1 - The global market is focused on the upcoming US tariff negotiations, with the July 9 deadline approaching, leading to a pessimistic outlook on the US dollar [1][2] - The US dollar index has dropped over 7% since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, while Asian currencies have collectively rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [1][2] - The Senate's passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US finances [2][3] Group 2 - There is a growing sentiment to "short the dollar" as the market anticipates the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of non-US currencies [2][3] - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a preferred destination for defensive assets due to its sensitivity to US Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical factors, with a significant influx of capital expected [5][6] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains significantly lower than that of US markets, with the Hang Seng Index projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% by 2025 [6]
7月防御性资产或成首选!机构最新观点
天天基金网· 2025-07-03 05:14
Group 1 - The article highlights the weakening outlook for the US dollar due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the recent passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by the US Senate, leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 7% since April [1][2] - The article notes that the offshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, reaching a high of 7.1493, while other Asian currencies have also strengthened, indicating a broader trend of non-USD currency appreciation [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is becoming a new safe haven for global capital, driven by its low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance, which is attracting more funds [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for a significant increase in the fiscal deficit in the US, with the Senate's version of the tax bill expected to expand the deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2][3] - It mentions that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly, with the one-month rate falling to 0.52% and the overnight rate nearing 0%, indicating a strong liquidity environment in the market [4] - The article points out that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index is significantly lower than that of the US market, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2%, making it an attractive option for international capital seeking to escape the dollar [5][6]
7月防御性资产或成首选!机构最新观点
证券时报· 2025-07-03 04:09
Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July [1][5]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Market Impact - The deadline for the resumption of tariffs on July 9 has led to increased uncertainty, with the Senate passing a significant tax and spending bill, causing a generally pessimistic outlook for the US dollar [2][7]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has dropped over 7%, while Asian currencies have collectively rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][5]. - The market is showing a clear risk-averse tendency, with defensive assets becoming a primary choice for some investors due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs [3][10]. Group 2: Currency Movements and Economic Indicators - As of July 2, the US dollar index remained around 96, while the offshore RMB appreciated to around 7.15 against the dollar, marking its highest level since November [6]. - Other Asian currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit, South Korean won, and Thai baht, have also reached their highest points since October, with the Singapore dollar hitting a 10-year high [6]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market as a Safe Haven - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract more capital inflows due to its relatively low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance [3][12]. - Following the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, Hong Kong's Hibor rates have rapidly declined, with the one-month Hibor rate dropping to 0.52%, the lowest since data collection began in 2000 [11]. - The Hong Kong market is becoming a new "safe asset" stronghold, with significant international capital inflows anticipated as corporate governance reforms enhance shareholder returns [11][12]. Group 4: Valuation Comparisons - The Hong Kong stock market remains significantly undervalued compared to the US market, with the Hang Seng Index projected P/E ratio for 2025 at 11 times and a projected dividend yield of 3.2% [12]. - High dividend sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and utilities are expected to yield over 5%, making Hong Kong an attractive option for capital reallocating away from the US dollar [12].
7月防御性资产或成首选!机构最新观点
券商中国· 2025-07-02 23:19
Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July, with a general bearish outlook on the US dollar due to increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal policies [2][4]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Dollar Outlook - The market is anticipating the results of the US tariff negotiations set for July 9, with a significant focus on the implications for the US dollar and non-US currencies [3][4]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has declined over 7%, while Asian currencies have rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][3]. - The Senate's passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to exacerbate the US fiscal deficit, further impacting the dollar's sustainability [3][4]. Group 2: Defensive Assets and Hong Kong Market - In light of the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, defensive assets have become a primary choice for investors, with the Hong Kong stock market positioned to attract more capital due to its low absolute valuations [2][6]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) has seen a significant decline, with one-month Hibor dropping to 0.52% and overnight Hibor nearing 0%, indicating strong market liquidity [7]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as a new safe haven for global capital, with expectations of a multi-year depreciation cycle for the US dollar, leading to increased international investment in Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Trends in Hong Kong - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains significantly lower than that of US markets, with the Hang Seng Index projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% by 2025 [8]. - The influx of global and southbound capital is driving a revaluation of undervalued blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong, with notable growth in the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend ETF [8].
盘点可用于防御的五类资产
天天基金网· 2025-06-12 11:43
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive assets in investment portfolios, particularly during uncertain market conditions. Defensive assets serve as a "stabilizing force" to protect investors' wealth amidst market volatility [2][32]. Group 1: Understanding Defensive Assets - Defensive assets are categorized as those that maintain stable intrinsic value and exhibit lower price volatility during market fluctuations, contrasting with risk assets that are more sensitive to market changes [4]. - The two primary functions of defensive assets are to reduce portfolio volatility and provide high credit quality and liquidity, ensuring stable cash flow during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Types of Defensive Assets - **Cash and Cash Equivalents**: High safety and liquidity, including money market funds that can be accessed anytime without fees [6][8]. - **Bond Assets**: Fixed income with potential for interest and price appreciation, with government bonds offering more stability than corporate bonds [10][11]. - **Dividend Assets**: Provide regular cash flow through dividends, performing well in bear markets and benefiting from valuation recovery in bull markets [14][15]. - **Gold**: Recognized as a "safe haven" asset during crises, maintaining value better than fiat currencies [16][18]. - **Commodities**: Stable demand and serve as a hedge against inflation, with specific commodities like oil and metals being particularly relevant during supply disruptions [20][21]. Group 3: Performance of Defensive Assets in Different Scenarios - **Economic Deflation**: Bond assets perform best due to liquidity and declining interest rates, while commodities lag [24][26]. - **Stagflation**: Commodities excel as inflation rises, while bonds struggle due to tightening monetary policy [28]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Gold prices tend to rise significantly during conflicts, reflecting its status as a hard currency [30][31]. Group 4: Conclusion - In the current complex investment landscape, incorporating defensive assets into portfolios is essential. Diversifying across different types of defensive assets can enhance overall portfolio resilience [32].
公募基金共话6月份A股:结构性行情延续 三大主线掘金
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-06-06 16:45
Core Viewpoint - Multiple public fund institutions express a cautiously optimistic outlook for the A-share market in June, expecting a structural market dominated by new investment opportunities amid fluctuations [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Chinese economy is in a critical phase of stabilization and recovery, with three positive factors supporting the A-share market: declining credit rates, improved rental yields in first-tier cities, and restored investment confidence among private enterprises [2] - The A-share market is anticipated to show a fluctuating upward trend, driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals, potential marginal improvements in trade due to tariff adjustments, and a well-stocked policy toolbox for timely interventions [2][6] - The market is expected to experience a "bottoming out—trend upward" trajectory over the next year, following a phase of valuation recovery since September 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Themes - Public fund institutions prioritize technology innovation as a core investment theme for June, focusing on sectors such as domestic computing power, AI applications, humanoid robots, and semiconductors [3][6] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is viewed as entering a "counterattack" phase, with upcoming technology conferences potentially acting as key catalysts for performance [3] - The consumption sector is also a focal point, with expectations that domestic demand policies will benefit high-quality assets in the internal circulation economy [4][6] Group 3: Defensive Strategies - Given external uncertainties, public fund institutions recommend increasing defensive allocations, suggesting attention to sectors like dividends, robotics, precious metals, and defense industries [5][6] - Specific recommendations include stable dividend-paying sectors such as banking, electricity, and highways, as well as precious metals and rare earths [5] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The A-share market in June is expected to present rich structural opportunities due to policy benefits, industrial upgrades, and valuation advantages, with a recommended multi-strategy approach of "technology growth + consumption upgrade + defensive allocation" [6]