Core Viewpoint - Recently, Maiwei Biotech announced two significant licensing agreements, potentially exceeding a total value of 4.7 billion RMB, which could enhance the company's operational strength and support its long-term development strategy [2][3][5]. Group 1: Licensing Agreements - Maiwei Biotech signed an exclusive licensing agreement with CALICO, a subsidiary of Alphabet, for the IL-11 targeted therapy, which includes the product 9MW3811. The agreement allows CALICO to develop, produce, and commercialize the product outside of China [3][4]. - The agreement with CALICO includes an upfront payment of 25 million USD (approximately 250 million RMB) and potential milestone payments totaling up to 571 million USD (approximately 4.095 billion RMB), along with royalties based on net sales [3][4]. - The second agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical involves the product 8MW0511, which is an injectable drug for treating febrile neutropenia in cancer patients. This agreement includes an upfront payment of 3.8 billion RMB and potential sales milestone payments, as well as royalties based on net sales [4][6]. Group 2: Company Background and Financials - Founded in 2017, Maiwei Biotech focuses on the research, production, and sales of innovative drugs and biosimilars, primarily in oncology and other therapeutic areas [3][6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has three products on the market but has not yet achieved profitability, with accumulated losses [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 44.79 million RMB, a year-on-year decline of 33.7%, and a net loss of 292 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses due to high R&D expenditures [7]. - The company is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to alleviate financial pressures and enhance its international presence [7].

Group 1 - The biotechnology sector, which faced significant downturns in previous years, has experienced a turnaround in 2025, with concept stocks rising sharply and becoming stars in the Hong Kong stock market [1][2] - From the beginning of the year to June 25, biotechnology stocks in the Hong Kong market have cumulatively risen over 92%, with innovative drug concepts increasing by over 49% [2] - Several biotechnology companies have initiated share placements to alleviate financing difficulties, with notable stock price increases observed [6][7] Group 2 - The surge in the biotechnology sector is supported by fundamental, news, and capital market factors, including the rapid expansion of Chinese innovative drugs in global markets [3][4] - In the first five months of 2025, China's share of global business development (BD) transactions has skyrocketed from 5% in 2021 to 42%, with transaction amounts reaching $45.5 billion [3] - The increase in licensing transactions has allowed more innovative drug companies to turn profitable, improving the overall fundamentals of the sector [4] Group 3 - The improved financing environment has led to multiple biotechnology companies in Hong Kong announcing share placement plans, with significant amounts raised for research and operational purposes [6][9] - For instance, Innovent Biologics plans to raise approximately HKD 4.31 billion through a share placement, with 90% of the funds allocated for global research and development [7] - Other companies, such as Junshi Biosciences, have also announced share placements to fund innovative drug development and operational needs [8][9] Group 4 - Institutions have noted a recent cooling in biotechnology stocks after a period of rapid growth, with ongoing monitoring of market trends [10] - Analysts from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlight that the pharmaceutical sector has seen a recovery after four years of adjustment, with a 4.57% increase in the medical and biological industry as of May 30, 2025 [10] - The outlook for innovative drugs remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by successful international collaborations and funding inflows [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise of the innovative drug sector, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index increasing by 55.61% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 17.30% growth [1] - The innovative drug industry is transitioning from experience-based competition to technology-driven competition, positioning itself as a "tech-like" asset [1][2] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is irreversible and expected to strengthen, with a focus on whether Chinese companies can outperform their overseas counterparts in new target selection [2][6] Group 2 - The current price-to-sales (PS) valuation of innovative drugs is around 4 times, which is considered neutral in the context of asset scarcity, indicating potential for continued stock price increases as clinical data and business development improve [2][7] - The innovative drug market is characterized by high unmet medical needs, particularly in areas with few available treatment options, which presents opportunities for the development of blockbuster drugs [3][8] - The "double 10" rule in new drug development indicates an average development cycle of 10 years and costs exceeding $1 billion, highlighting the high-risk nature of the industry [4] Group 3 - China's innovative drug sector has made significant progress, with over 50% contribution to the top 20 global drug targets and surpassing Europe in original drug numbers as of 2021 [5][6] - The competition landscape is evolving into a scenario where both China and the U.S. are advancing in the innovative drug sector, with increased global competitiveness for Chinese companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its strong performance, driven by its alignment with current market trends and the recovery of valuations after years of pressure [7][8] Group 4 - Specific areas with strong potential for new drug development include antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), GLP-1 metabolic disease drugs, and gene therapy for rare diseases [8] - For investors looking to enter the innovative drug market, a systematic investment approach through funds is recommended due to the high barriers and complexities involved in the sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - Rongchang Biologics announced the licensing of its product Taitasip to Vor Bio, granting exclusive rights for development and commercialization outside Greater China, which has led to a significant drop in its stock prices despite the potential financial benefits from the deal [1][2][3] Group 1: Licensing Deal Details - Rongchang Biologics will receive $125 million in cash and warrants from Vor Bio, including an upfront payment of $45 million and $80 million in warrants, representing approximately 23% equity stake [1] - Vor Bio is also obligated to pay up to $4.105 billion in milestone payments based on clinical registration and commercialization, along with high single to double-digit sales royalties [1] - The deal structure follows a Newco model, where specific pipelines are separated and developed through a newly established company, allowing Rongchang to leverage Vor Bio's resources for overseas commercialization [4] Group 2: Market Reaction and Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Rongchang Biologics' A and H shares experienced significant declines, with A shares hitting a 20% limit down and H shares dropping over 25% [1][2] - The stock had previously surged by 34.37% from June 20 to June 25, reaching a high of 70.1 yuan per share, indicating a stark contrast between market expectations and the actual deal terms [3] Group 3: Product Background and Clinical Development - Taitasip was conditionally approved for market entry in March 2021 and is the first dual-target biologic for treating systemic lupus erythematosus [5] - The product has received additional approvals for rheumatoid arthritis and adult generalized myasthenia gravis, with ongoing global Phase III clinical trials for various indications [6][7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Rongchang Biopharma has entered a global licensing agreement with Vor Bio for its innovative drug Taitasip, with a total deal value exceeding $4.23 billion, but the market reacted negatively to the announcement, leading to significant stock price declines for both A-shares and H-shares [1][3][17] Financial Summary - Rongchang Biopharma will receive $125 million in cash and warrants from Vor Bio, including a $45 million upfront payment and $80 million in warrants, which can be converted into 320 million shares of Vor Bio, representing approximately 23% of its expanded total share capital [1] - The deal includes potential milestone payments of up to $4.105 billion and high single to double-digit sales royalties [1][8] - Despite the promising revenue growth, with projected revenue of 1.717 billion yuan in 2024 (up 58.54% year-on-year), the company still faces a net loss of 1.468 billion yuan [14][15] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Rongchang Biopharma's A-shares hit the daily limit down, falling over 17% to 61.25 yuan, while H-shares dropped over 16% to 55.85 HKD [3][4] - The market's negative response indicates dissatisfaction with the deal's structure, particularly the low upfront payment and the uncertainty surrounding milestone payments [7][8] Strategic Implications - The agreement is seen as a significant step in Rongchang Biopharma's global expansion strategy, potentially allowing access to mainstream markets in Europe and the U.S. [17] - However, concerns about Vor Bio's financial stability and operational capacity raise doubts about the realization of future milestone payments and sales royalties [10][12][17]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by improved fundamentals, supportive policies, and increased market interest, particularly in the A-share and Hong Kong markets [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance this year, with a notable rebound starting from April 9, despite recent pullbacks [1]. - The innovative drug segment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has continued to strengthen, indicating a recovery after four years of adjustment [1][3]. - The total amount of business development (BD) transactions for innovative drugs is projected to rise significantly, from $8.4 billion in 2020 to $51.9 billion in 2024 [4]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Trends - The policy environment has shifted from cost control to encouraging innovation, providing strong support for the development of innovative drugs [3]. - The number and quality of innovative drug products in China have significantly improved, leading to increased interest from foreign pharmaceutical companies [3][5]. - The penetration rate of innovative drugs in China is expected to rise, with current levels at around 20%, compared to 70%-80% in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about the future of innovative drugs, emphasizing the importance of technology and growth attributes in the sector [6]. - Investment strategies include focusing on high-quality companies, innovative drug leaders, and traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovative drugs [7][8][9]. - Investors can consider actively managed pharmaceutical funds or industry-themed ETFs to gain exposure to the innovative drug market [10][12]. Group 4: Fund Performance - Several funds managed by 工银瑞信 have demonstrated strong performance, ranking highly in their respective categories over various time frames [13][15]. - The 工银港股通创新药ETF has seen significant inflows, reflecting market preference for innovative drug companies [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][82]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the significant progress of Chinese innovative drugs, highlighting their emergence as a global force in the pharmaceutical industry, supported by a solid industrial foundation, policy backing, and capital support [4][5]. - The gap between Chinese and global innovative drugs has narrowed significantly, with the time to market for first-in-class drugs reduced from over 10 years to within 1-5 years [4]. - The report indicates that Chinese companies now account for over 30% of global clinical trials, with more than 60% of popular targets being pursued by Chinese firms [35][38]. Summary by Sections Breakthrough Therapies - The development of innovative drugs in China is underpinned by a robust industrial base, supportive policies, and substantial capital investment, leading to rapid growth in the ADC market and next-generation therapies [4][12]. - Key drugs such as Keytruda and Semaglutide are projected to generate sales of $29.482 billion and $29.296 billion respectively in 2024, showcasing the potential of innovative therapies [4][12]. Achievements - Chinese innovative drugs have made significant strides, with the clinical trial participation rate increasing from 9.7% in 2016 to 28.2% in 2023 [35]. - The report notes that the number of Chinese companies involved in clinical trials for oncology drugs has risen from 15% in 2016 to 35.5% in 2023, indicating a strong focus on cancer therapies [35]. Leading Trends - The rapid growth of License Out transactions has provided substantial cash flow for innovative drug companies, facilitating their expansion into international markets [5][66]. - The report highlights that the Chinese market is still dominated by foreign patented drugs, but there is significant potential for domestic innovative drugs to capture market share, especially as many foreign drugs face expiration of patents [70][72].

金十数据6月23日讯，招银国际发表研究报告指，MSCI中国医疗指数2025年初至今累计上涨31.7%，跑 赢MSCI中国指数18.2%。报告指，短期来看，由于市场对于出海交易的频次和交易规模预期较高，内 地医药行业或仍将面临一定的回调压力。创新药属于高风险、长周期、高回报的行业。中国创新药的研 发实力具备全球竞争力，该行认为创新药出海趋势将长期持续。然而，由于创新药的长周期特征，导致 出海交易的达成往往需要较长时间的研发积累。长期看，中国创新药的出海BD交易仍有大幅增长空 间。该行认为，消费类医疗领域的部分企业基本面扎实，估值合理，值得布局。尽管短期创新药板块或 将由于盈利了结等因素继续回调，内地医药行业基本面仍然保持强劲，估值处于合理区间。 招银国际：内地医药行业短期面临回调压力 估值处于合理区间 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant valuation recovery, with a median average valuation of approximately 15-16 times PE, compared to 25 times in A-shares and 20 times overseas [5][6][8] - The liquidity in the market has improved significantly, with a notable increase in financing opportunities, exemplified by Heng Rui's successful A+H listing raising around 10 billion HKD [5][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The innovative drug and FIMA sectors are performing exceptionally well, benefiting from active BD transactions and popular fields such as bispecific antibodies (双抗) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) [1][2][6] - The revenue growth rate for the innovative drug sector exceeds 40% year-on-year, with narrowing profit losses and a positive trend in profitability for leading companies [1][8] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are actively engaging in BD transactions, with transaction amounts exceeding 46 billion USD as of early this year, primarily driven by milestone payments [9] - Eight domestic innovative drugs have received FDA approval, with BeiGene's Zebrutinib achieving global sales exceeding 2 billion USD [10][11] Policy Support - In January 2025, the National Healthcare Security Administration announced the first version of the Class B catalog, focusing on high-innovation products that benefit patients but are not included in the national basic medical insurance catalog [3][12] - Policies from Beijing and Shenzhen are promoting the development of the entire innovative drug industry chain, enhancing R&D investments and supporting innovative transformations [3][4] Sub-industry Performance - The performance of various sub-industries is mixed, with the innovative drug and FIMA sectors showing the most promise, while other sectors like chemical preparations and medical services are experiencing slower growth [6][8] - Small-cap companies that were previously illiquid have shown strong performance this year, driven by valuation recovery and BD catalysts [6][8] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector in 2025 will focus on innovative drugs and overseas opportunities, particularly following the promising data presented at the ASCO conference [2] - Companies are expected to reach profitability turning points, with ongoing clinical advancements in key pipelines [2] Noteworthy Developments - Significant collaborations have been established, such as the partnership between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the P707 bispecific product, with an upfront payment of 1.25 billion USD [9][25] - The ADC sector is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Keren Biotechnology leading in this field [24] Challenges and Risks - The medical services sector is under pressure due to macroeconomic factors and healthcare policy impacts, with performance challenges expected to continue [16][18] - The aging population is increasing hospitalization rates, which, combined with DRG/DIP policies, poses additional challenges for the healthcare system [17] Conclusion - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, driven by innovative drug development and favorable policies, although challenges in the medical services sector and the need for continued BD activity remain critical for future success [1][3][16]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Hang Seng Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index (CNY) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects up to 50 listed companies in the Hong Kong market whose main business involves innovative drug research and development, reflecting the overall performance of innovative drug-themed listed companies in Hong Kong[37][61] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: Combines the sample space of the CSI Hong Kong 300 Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index[38] - **Selection Criteria**: - Liquidity: Average daily turnover over the past year must not be less than HKD 10 million - Business Focus: Companies involved in innovative drug R&D or providing related services are selected - Market Cap: Top 50 securities by average daily market cap over the past year are included, or all securities if fewer than 50 meet the criteria - **Weighting Method**: Free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual stock weights capped at 10%[38] - **Adjustment Frequency**: Semi-annual adjustments in June and December[38] - **Model Evaluation**: The index focuses on mid-to-large innovative drug enterprises, with a high degree of industry purity, as 100% of its constituents belong to the "Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology" secondary industry[43][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hang Seng Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index - **Annualized Return**: 8.54% (2019.1.1 - 2025.5.31)[49][50] - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio (IR)**: 0.41[49][50] - **Annualized Volatility**: 35.93%[49][50] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -68.18%[49][50]